2017 Staff Compared to 2018

[Twinfan & Dad]

Starting Pitchers – 5

RHP Ervin Santana

LHP Hector Santiago

RHP Kyle Gibson

RHP Phil Hughes

LHP Adalberto Mejia

 

Opening day 2017....

 

 

 

Did we forget what we started with in 2017?

 

 

2018

 

Starting Pitchers - 5

RHP Berrios

New trade or FA

Gibson

Meija

Gonsalves or Slegers

 

In May we have Santana and Trevor May available hopefully. Is this rotation that much worse than what we started with in 2017. Why don't we wait until the season starts to see what we have. Dont burn your Twins jerseys yet. Im hoping for a Santana Berrios Gonsalves Romero May rotation at some point next season.

[DaveW]

Well Santana is out for at least the first month/month and a half if not longer, so that is a concern.


When Berrios and Gibson are our 'best two' SP going into the season at this stage it's big trouble, especially when you look around the league at the other 'contenders'

Gibson is nothing more than a #5 on a contender or ideally at least, for us he could be the opening day starter, which says it all.

[Twinfan & Dad]

Well Santana is out for at least the first month/month and a half if not longer, so that is a concern.

When Berrios and Gibson are our 'best two' SP going into the season at this stage it's big trouble, especially when you look around the league at the other 'contenders'

Gibson is nothing more than a #5 on a contender or ideally at least, for us he could be the opening day starter, which says it all.

Very true. Berrios slots into our number 1 at this point. What I dont see Dave is a Hughes or Santiago so I'll put a plus in the column for 2018 for that. I like what we may look like in May and June with Santana and May coming back plus not paying a Darvich type 20 million to sit on the DL or be a .500 pitcher.

[Han Joelo]

That's why they play the games, right? I love seeing young talent step up. Much more fun than watching old talent disappoint.

 

If it doesn't happen, too bad, but I enjoy watching the drama. I'm a Twins fan by choice--I prefer the underdog story to rooting for mercenaries anyway.

[DaveW]

 

Very true. Berrios slots into our number 1 at this point. What I dont see Dave is a Hughes or Santiago so I'll put a plus in the column for 2018 for that. I like what we may look like in May and June with Santana and May coming back plus not paying a Darvich type 20 million to sit on the DL or be a .500 pitcher.

Yeah, I mean they could do ok, and I hope they do, we are just counting on a LOT of good things to break right.

 

Santana coming back very strong after the surgery (no guarantee)

Berrios taking a BIG step forward this year (no guarantee)
May coming back from a big injury etc

Also as high as I am on on some of the potential rookie SP, it's really hard to count on rookie SP to do much of anything their first year or so in the majors, sort of the nature of the beast to be honest, not a knock on them at all, but in general it's pretty rare for a rookie SP to put together top of the rotation type of numbers (which the Twins need)

Hopefully Hughes can come back somewhat as well.
I dunno though, it could all break right, but it could end up disastrous as well. I'm not super high on a guy like Cobb, but at least he could go a long ways to help stabilize the rotation and 'keep you in games' would have been nice to have a guy like Darvish who can truly dominate though.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Pitchers and catchers report in 3 days. They’ll sign Chris Tillman to be the 4th starter and bring up Slegers when they need a 5th starter

[DaveW]

 

Pitchers and catchers report in 3 days. They’ll sign Chris Tillman to be the 4th starter and bring up Slegers when they need a 5th starter

I'm all for signing Tillman, but penciling him in as a #4 would be a mistake, he was the worst starter in the MLB last year, and his 2015 was pretty poor as well. I think he is a solid bounce back candidate, but I wouldn't just pencil him into the 4 spot or prob even the 5 spot (without a lot of good backup plans) imo.

[Twinfan & Dad]

Yeah, I mean they could do ok, and I hope they do, we are just counting on a LOT of good things to break right.

 

Santana coming back very strong after the surgery (no guarantee)

Berrios taking a BIG step forward this year (no guarantee)

May coming back from a big injury etc

Also as high as I am on on some of the potential rookie SP, it's really hard to count on rookie SP to do much of anything their first year or so in the majors, sort of the nature of the beast to be honest, not a knock on them at all, but in general it's pretty rare for a rookie SP to put together top of the rotation type of numbers (which the Twins need)

Hopefully Hughes can come back somewhat as well.

I dunno though, it could all break right, but it could end up disastrous as well. I'm not super high on a guy like Cobb, but at least he could go a long ways to help stabilize the rotation and 'keep you in games' would have been nice to have a guy like Darvish who can truly dominate though.

 

I agree with you that I am looking at alot of things to break right and that our young pitchers will have growing pains. Hughes and Santiago both were awful and so whomever we compare to them in 2018 in the early part of the season, hopefully will perform better. We will miss Santana. I agree Darvich can dominate but he also had some bad stretches and with his injury history, I just couldnt get too excited about his signing. I am optimistic (maybe overly) that our young guys will step up. Gonsalves and Romero will be solid pitchers at some point I'm just pushing their timeline to being major contributors up!

[Mr. Brooks]

What is this injury history you keep mentioning with Darvish?

Hasn't he been pretty healthy, outside of the TJ Surgery?

[Twinfan & Dad]

What is this injury history you keep mentioning with Darvish?

Hasn't he been pretty healthy, outside of the TJ Surgery?

08/17/2017Lower Back Tightness10-Day Disabled List06/09/2016Right Shoulder Discomfort15-Day Disabled List03/25/2016Recovery From Right Elbow Surgery15-Day Disabled List03/01/2016Recovery From Right Elbow SurgeryDay-To-Day04/05/2015Right Elbow Surgery - Out For Season60-Day Disabled List03/07/2015Right Elbow Surgery - Out For SeasonDay-To-Day

 

Darvich also missed numerous starts while not going on the DL. He has averaged 166 innings in his 5 years of pitching.

[Mr. Brooks]

08/17/2017Lower Back Tightness10-Day Disabled List06/09/2016Right Shoulder Discomfort15-Day Disabled List03/25/2016Recovery From Right Elbow Surgery15-Day Disabled List03/01/2016Recovery From Right Elbow SurgeryDay-To-Day04/05/2015Right Elbow Surgery - Out For Season60-Day Disabled List03/07/2015Right Elbow Surgery - Out For SeasonDay-To-Day

 

Darvich also missed numerous starts while not going on the DL. He has averaged 166 innings in his 5 years of pitching.

So not much, aside from the TJ Surgery.

A few missed starts, not that uncommon.

You are including time lost to TJ in your average innings.

He averages 193 innings in the seasons not affected by the TJ surgery. That's pretty good, IMO.

[Mike Sixel]

08/17/2017Lower Back Tightness10-Day Disabled List06/09/2016Right Shoulder Discomfort15-Day Disabled List03/25/2016Recovery From Right Elbow Surgery15-Day Disabled List03/01/2016Recovery From Right Elbow SurgeryDay-To-Day04/05/2015Right Elbow Surgery - Out For Season60-Day Disabled List03/07/2015Right Elbow Surgery - Out For SeasonDay-To-Day

 

Darvich also missed numerous starts while not going on the DL. He has averaged 166 innings in his 5 years of pitching.

24th in innings pitched last year. ...

[Twinfan & Dad]

So not much, aside from the TJ Surgery.

A few missed starts, not that uncommon.

You are including time lost to TJ in your average innings.

He averages 193 innings in the seasons not affected by the TJ surgery. That's pretty good, IMO.

 

2014- 144 innings

2015- out

2016- 100 innings

2017- 186 innings

 

To me looks like a 50/50 coin toss what you get next. Aging strike out pitcher who has logged a lot of innings when including his Japan stats. Coming off a average at best 2017. Worth 20 million. Not IMO.

[Teddy]

I am not at all disappointed by the Darvish non-signing. Frankly, I'd be OK if they offered Jake Arrieta a one-year, $30-million deal with a player option for year 2 at the same price. It would give Arrieta a chance to pitch his tail off to get the deal he expected to get this year, and if he pitches like he did two years ago for the Cubs, the Twins would gladly pay $1 million a start. 

 

By the time his deal is over (even if he takes the year two option), the team should have some of the young pitchers (Romero, Gonsalves, Littell & Mejia) in good shape to match with Berrios and May in the rotation.

[Twinfan & Dad]

Santana Berrios May Meija Gonsalves Romero Slegers and whatever 20 million per year can buy us. I will take this flexibility over the unknown of a 31.5 year old Darvich for 6 years. An aging strikeout pitcher who has logged a lot of innings in his JAPAN and U.S. career and coming off a subpar 2017.

[Danchat]

Well of course the 2018 staff is going to look worse than the 2017 staff after the de facto ace goes down to injury and we're only 8 hours removed from Plan A failing.

 

The rotation is the prime weakness on this team and I'm confident there will be at least one starter added. Now's not the time to start panicking... if we're a week away from Opening Day and the rotation is Berrios-Gibson-Mejia-Slegers-Tillman... then the panicking shall commence.

[rdehring]

Everyone is forgetting Tyler Duffey.  Could he be the pleasant surprise we all have been waiting for?  

[Jham]

Everyone is forgetting Tyler Duffey. Could he be the pleasant surprise we all have been waiting for?

Do people not get how dramatic a fall off it is from Darvish to whoever we throw out there? Duffy? Gonsalves? Gonsalves profiles almost identically to Mejia no? At least as a prospect? Arguably worse stuff? Romero is most likely a bull pen guy. May couldn't clearly beat out Pelfry. There is some hope there. But realistically no chance in hell any one or combination of those arms can replace the production of a Darvish. I'd actually bet on Hughes to have an impact over any of those other options and I'm not even sure he has any ribs left.

 

Not to mention we'll probably spend that money anyway. On worse components. And if we don't, we're certainly not banking it for next year or for any other signing or extension.

[nicksaviking]

 

Starting Pitchers – 5
RHP Ervin Santana
LHP Hector Santiago
RHP Kyle Gibson
RHP Phil Hughes
LHP Adalberto Mejia

Opening day 2017....



Did we forget what we started with in 2017?


2018

Starting Pitchers - 5
RHP Berrios
New trade or FA
Gibson
Meija
Gonsalves or Slegers

In May we have Santana and Trevor May available hopefully. Is this rotation that much worse than what we started with in 2017. Why don't we wait until the season starts to see what we have. Dont burn your Twins jerseys yet. Im hoping for a Santana Berrios Gonsalves Romero May rotation at some point next season.

 

Well I guess my problem is that I'm not OK with a repeat of 2017. I've waited long enough for a World Series title and those pitchers almost surely aren't good enough to get to the ALCS let along win it all.

[Twinfan & Dad]

Do people not get how dramatic a fall off it is from Darvish to whoever we throw out there? Duffy? Gonsalves? Gonsalves profiles almost identically to Mejia no? At least as a prospect? Arguably worse stuff? Romero is most likely a bull pen guy. May couldn't clearly beat out Pelfry. There is some hope there. But realistically no chance in hell any one or combination of those arms can replace the production of a Darvish. I'd actually bet on Hughes to have an impact over any of those other options and I'm not even sure he has any ribs left.

Not to mention we'll probably spend that money anyway. On worse components. And if we don't, we're certainly not banking it for next year or for any other signing or extension.

I guess we will just have to play the games then because we certainly have different opinions on Darvich and the Twins starters. Time will tell.

[Rosterman]

Well, the plus is that Kyle needs to pitch bigtime to get a free agent contract.

 

So does Ervin, to cash in on a lightweight middle 2018 marketplace.

 

How hungry are Gonsalves, Littell et al. If anything, the Twins actions showed last year that the leash could be short if others are pushing the envelope.

 

 

[theBOMisthebomb]

What is this injury history you keep mentioning with Darvish?

Hasn't he been pretty healthy, outside of the TJ Surgery?

He injured the hopes and dreams of Dodgers fans waiting nearly 30 years for a World Series title.

[Jham]

I guess we will just have to play the games then because we certainly have different opinions on Darvich and the Twins starters. Time will tell.

That's fair, but what are your opinions based on? I've never seen Gonsalves or Romero pitch. Maybe an inning or two last spring training. Mejia peaked at 91 on a BA midseason top 100 list. Gonsalves reached 99. Romero would be higher if more seasoned and durable. Duffy... May is fine but had arm and back problems on top of sporadic command and results. Hughes will either be good again or retire I suspect.

 

I get that you're skeptical of Darish and don't like the years, but the overall contact and aav was very reasonable compared to wishing for lightening in a bottle with 2 rookies and two guys off of surgery.

[Mr. Brooks]

2014- 144 innings

2015- out

2016- 100 innings

2017- 186 innings

 

To me looks like a 50/50 coin toss what you get next. Aging strike out pitcher who has logged a lot of innings when including his Japan stats. Coming off a average at best 2017. Worth 20 million. Not IMO.

2014 and 2016 were both shortened by the timing of the TJ Surgery.

If you want to claim that one significant injury means he's injury prone, then I don't think you are being objective.

 

In what way was he "average at best" in 2017?

 

He had 3.8 bWAR. If you want to go old school, his ERA+ was 122, which is, by definition, 22% better than average.

[notoriousgod71]

What happens if Berrios gets hurt or regresses? Does our rotation have an ERA under 6?

[Brock Beauchamp]

Very true. Berrios slots into our number 1 at this point. What I dont see Dave is a Hughes or Santiago so I'll put a plus in the column for 2018 for that. I like what we may look like in May and June with Santana and May coming back plus not paying a Darvich type 20 million to sit on the DL or be a .500 pitcher.

It’s easy to bash Santiago but he was just fine before the injury. The Twins got one very good month out of him and one kinda bad month (mostly okay until the end when he fell apart, probably injury-related but I can’t recall the exact timeline offhand).

[USAFChief]

Days from pitchers and catchers reporting, and from where I sit this rotation is a disaster.

 

What an AWFUL job thus far by Falvine. It’s not mediocre, it’s not “well, maybe if you squint hard...,”. It’s awful.

 

And let’s be realistic. Slegers, et al aren’t going to help, nor are Gonsalves/Romero. At their BEST none of them are difference makers, at least not in 2018, if ever.

 

Hugely disappointed. Not much time/opportunity to rescue this, either. They could realistically have Cole and Darvish at the top of the rotation.

[drjim]

Days from pitchers and catchers reporting, and from where I sit this rotation is a disaster.

 

What an AWFUL job thus far by Falvine. It’s not mediocre, it’s not “well, maybe if you squint hard...,”. It’s awful.

 

And let’s be realistic. Slegers, et al aren’t going to help, nor are Gonsalves/Romero. At their BEST none of them are difference makers, at least not in 2018, if ever.

 

Hugely disappointed. Not much time/opportunity to rescue this, either. They could realistically have Cole and Darvish at the top of the rotation.

I would at least wait until 3 free agent pitchers sign until there is complete doom and gloom.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Days from pitchers and catchers reporting, and from where I sit this rotation is a disaster.

What an AWFUL job thus far by Falvine. It’s not mediocre, it’s not “well, maybe if you squint hard...,”. It’s awful.

And let’s be realistic. Slegers, et al aren’t going to help, nor are Gonsalves/Romero. At their BEST none of them are difference makers, at least not in 2018, if ever.

Hugely disappointed. Not much time/opportunity to rescue this, either. They could realistically have Cole and Darvish at the top of the rotation.

Given that Darvish signed yesterday and almost every free agent SP worth mentioning is still available, I'm not so sure opportunity to solve this issue is lacking.

 

Even though the Twins missed on Darvish, picking up a competent SP would make this offseason acceptable, maybe even good. It's hard to complain about their earlier acquisitions and the Reed deal was very good, as was Pineda (though that likely doesn't matter for 2018).

[USAFChief]

Given that Darvish signed yesterday and almost every free agent SP worth mentioning is still available, I'm not so sure opportunity to solve this issue is lacking.

 

Even though the Twins missed on Darvish, picking up a competent SP would make this offseason acceptable, maybe even good. It's hard to complain about their earlier acquisitions and the Reed deal was very good, as was Pineda (though that likely doesn't matter for 2018).

Look at the opening series rotation. How is that fixable at this point? Cobb/Lynn do nothing significant to help, they aren’t signing Arrieta, and in any case they needed to add two starters better than Berrios to be serious postseason contenders.

 

“A competent SP” is way short of that, and I remind you even THAT hasn’t happened yet. I will not be happy with “a competent SP” even if it does happen. What’s the goal here? Keep the WC game closer?