Article: Two Veteran Free Agents The Twins Could Target

[DaveW]

I don't care if Lackey is the greatest guy ever or a jerk personality wise. The guy gave up more home runs then anyone in baseball last year. The Twins need guys that can keep the ball in the park so that their very good defense can do their thing.

4.77 ERA

5.30 FIP

Turning 40?

Hard pass.
 

I would like to take this opportunity to suggest we offer Liriano a one year, 2 million dollar deal. I think with the proper coaching he could be a solid bullpen piece. 

[DaveW]

 

Why?

Serious question. This is a common sentiment, but why? What’s the advantage? Teams carry four outfielders anyway, why not try to maximize production rather than keep trying to force a player to be good at something he’s not good at, and likely will never be as good at as a different player.

You can’t platoon everywhere, or even at more than a couple positions any more, but you CAN get cheap, increased production that way.

Let a RH hitter get most of Kepler’s PAs, and a few of Rosario’s, vs LH pitching. What’s the harm?

I want Kepler to continue to get at bats against LHP. I think he is too raw/too important for the future to just platoon him this early on.

Also I doubt Werth would sign on just to be a 2 game a week "starter" anyways, I think he will end up going somewhere were he could legitimately compete for a starting spot.

[Mike Sixel]

Why?

 

Serious question. This is a common sentiment, but why? What’s the advantage? Teams carry four outfielders anyway, why not try to maximize production rather than keep trying to force a player to be good at something he’s not good at, and likely will never be as good at as a different player.

 

You can’t platoon everywhere, or even at more than a couple positions any more, but you CAN get cheap, increased production that way.

 

Let a RH hitter get most of Kepler’s PAs, and a few of Rosario’s, vs LH pitching. What’s the harm?

Kepler is 23 with minimal experience. The harm is slowing his growth. No way he should be platooned at this point.

[USAFChief]

Kepler is 23 with minimal experience. The harm is slowing his growth. No way he should be platooned at this point.

Minimal experience? Kepler has 3000 professional PAs.

 

Kepler will be 25 next year, BTW.

[FargoFanMan]

Pass. I’ll take someone a bit younger who could possibly improve the team and contribute something other than age and wisdom.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

John Lackey has a 3.57 ERA, 4.02 FIP and 1.20 WHIP over the past five seasons. If he pitches up to that baseline, he's not a #5 starter on the Twins. He's a #2 or #3. 

 

If you don't like the guy because you think he's a dink, that's OK, but let's not act as though he hasn't been a durable, quality performer. 

 

He will also be 39 next season after posting a forgettable season in the NL.  I'd pass. If they spend money, go get some one with a better chance of performing.

[Vanimal46]

 

Minimal experience? Kepler has 3000 professional PAs.

Kepler will be 25 next year, BTW.

 

I mean, we're talking what.... ~300 PA's for the 4th OF? I don't see anything wrong with maximizing those 300 PAs with a good bat. 

[jimmer]

Buxton and Kepler were born in the same year.  They are ten months apart.  Apparently one seems to have reached the age where his potential has been realized, the other is still a young kid with a lot of room to grow.

Edited November 9, 2017 by jimmer

[jimmer]

 

I mean, we're talking what.... ~300 PA's for the 4th OF? I don't see anything wrong with maximizing those 300 PAs with a good bat. 

I think some question whether or not it's a good idea to make Kepler a platoon player at this point.  Also need to take into account he's a quality defender and how the drop off affects the pitching when he's on the bench and an inferior defender is out.

[drjim]

 

Buxton and Kepler were born in the same year.  They are ten months apart.  One seems to have reached the age where his potential has been realized, the other is still a young kid with a lot of room to grow.

 

Don't both have a lot of (potential) room to grow? Neither seems to have reached their ceiling.

[jimmer]

 

Don't both have a lot of (potential) room to grow? Neither seems to have reached their ceiling.

yeah, I agree completely.

[Vanimal46]

 

I think some question whether or not it's a good idea to make Kepler a platoon player at this point.  Also need to take into account he's a quality defender and how the drop off affects the pitching when he's on the bench and an inferior defender is out.

 

Kepler would still get the lions' share of the PAs. Probably ~450-500 PAs. Then the 4th OF would fill in on ~150-200 of Kepler's PAs vs. LH hitting, and another ~100-150 of Rosario's PAs vs. LH. 

[nicksaviking]

I don't know that I'm ready to commit Kepler to being a platoon player going forward, but perhaps if he's still really tanking against lefties by June and the team is winning you've got to adjust the game plan.

 

I'd probably be more favorable about this plan if the team wasn't signing a 4th OF but instead signing a regular DH who could also play OF and hit lefties. Maybe a guy like Melky Cabrera?

[drjim]

Kepler would still get the lions' share of the PAs. Probably ~450-500 PAs. Then the 4th OF would fill in on ~150-200 of Kepler's PAs vs. LH hitting, and another ~100-150 of Rosario's PAs vs. LH.

Plus dh at bats for Mauer. A good rh hitter makes sense. If they think he's an upgrade on Grossman could be a savvy move.

[drjim]

I don't know that I'm ready to commit Kepler to being a platoon player going forward, but perhaps if he's still really tanking against lefties by June and the team is winning you've got to adjust the game plan.

 

I'd probably be more favorable about this plan if the team wasn't signing a 4th OF but instead signing a regular DH who could also play OF and hit lefties. Maybe a guy like Melky Cabrera?

Probably need to plan on Sano taking most of the dh reps this year. Edited November 9, 2017 by drjim

[Nick Nelson]

 

  
The subjectivity and grey area that is determining an individual's personality seems like a good reason to put nearly all the emphasis on what the guy can do on the field instead of off of it.

Exactly this. I'm interested in evaluating what these guys can do on the field. If there is meaningful evidence that they have a negative impact as teammates, I'll account for that. But comments like "he divorced his wife while she had cancer 6 years ago" have no place in this analysis IMO. 

 

 

 

I don't care if Lackey is the greatest guy ever or a jerk personality wise. The guy gave up more home runs then anyone in baseball last year. The Twins need guys that can keep the ball in the park so that their very good defense can do their thing.

4.77 ERA

5.30 FIP

Turning 40?

Hard pass.

We get it. How many times are you going to say "hard pass" on this thread? 

 

You know who allowed the second-most HR in the AL between 2012 and 2013? Phil Hughes. He did OK in 2014, his first year with the Twins, right? You know who was the only pitcher to give up more? Ervin Santana.

 

When a guy has a fluky year with HR/FB ratio, it should be viewed as an opportunity not a red flag. In the case of Lackey, you're looking at a one-year deal so the risk is minimal. 

[laloesch]

No and No.  Give that rotation spots to a legit top of the order starter or to one of the youngsters (Enns, Gonsalves, Meija, LIttell, etc.).

[DaveW]

 

Exactly this. I'm interested in evaluating what these guys can do on the field. If there is meaningful evidence that they have a negative impact as teammates, I'll account for that. But comments like "he divorced his wife while she had cancer 6 years ago" have no place in this analysis IMO. 

 

 

 

We get it. How many times are you going to say "hard pass" on this thread? 

 

You know who allowed the second-most HR in the AL between 2012 and 2013? Phil Hughes. He did OK in 2014, his first year with the Twins, right? You know who was the only pitcher to give up more? Ervin Santana.

 

When a guy has a fluky year with HR/FB ratio, it should be viewed as an opportunity not a red flag. In the case of Lackey, you're looking at a one-year deal so the risk is minimal. 

It's not just home runs, it's a poor ERA in the NL, 4.59 ERA in the weak NL Central is more or less a 5.00 ERA in the AL.

And yes, Hughes and Santana were able to bounce back, but there is a major difference you seem to be just ignoring between them and Lackey. Santana and Hughes were in their prime (or at least close to it) Lackey is turning 40. Not a whole lot of guys in MLB history who suddenly have a "bounce back" year at age 40.

Giving him even a 1 year contract is a mistake as it would basically mean the Twins were penciling him into the rotation and would be one less spot they could give to a player who could actually be decent.

The Twins have all sorts of guys who can "eat innings" and get you a 4.90 to 5.25 ERA, they need to be actually bringing in guys who can pitch and win ball games.

Literally zero upside at this stage of his career, if he is avail in June or July and the rotation needs "an arm" then bring him in, other than that? Nope.

Edited November 9, 2017 by DaveW

[howieramone2]

 

The guy's 39 though, I'm not putting any weight on what he did when he was 34. If he's a mid season waiver wire deal ala Colon, sure, I'm down for that. However Lackey isn't coming here on a non-guaranteed non-multimillion dollar deal; I don't know how a team that needs two top of the rotation arms could justify using a 25 man spot on him.

I guess I'll add the caveat that if the Twins sign a Chatwood and trade for an Archer and Lackey's still sitting out there come February, sure, then go for it.

The team doesn't need 2 top of the rotation arms though. Good enough now, is better than perfect later.

[DaveW]

 

The team doesn't need 2 top of the rotation arms though. Good enough now, is better than perfect later.

If this team wants to actually be a title contender they need 2 top of the rotation arms, hopefully Berrios becomes one of those, but he isn't their yet. Santana is a #3 on a playoff team/contender.

[howieramone2]

 

If this team wants to actually be a title contender they need 2 top of the rotation arms, hopefully Berrios becomes one of those, but he isn't their yet. Santana is a #3 on a playoff team/contender.

As we speak, Santana is a number 2. A workable definition of a 3, is one we trust to pitch in a playoff game. Santana is much better than that, therefore a 2. Berrios will show more ceiling in the future. Good enough now, is better than perfect later.

[nicksaviking]

 

The team doesn't need 2 top of the rotation arms though. Good enough now, is better than perfect later.

 

I'm not OK with a rotation that can't keep up with Cleveland and Houston come October. It's not good enough now, not even close. Ervin Santana would be the 4th starter on both of those teams.

[laloesch]

 

If this team wants to actually be a title contender they need 2 top of the rotation arms, hopefully Berrios becomes one of those, but he isn't their yet. Santana is a #3 on a playoff team/contender.

 

and he's got two years maybe until he really starts to decline as he gets into his late 30's.

[Mike Sixel]

Buxton and Kepler were born in the same year. They are ten months apart. Apparently one seems to have reached the age where his potential has been realized, the other is still a young kid with a lot of room to grow.

Not sure where anyone here said that about Buxton. Ignoring that Max grew up in Germany and didn't play against good competition until he came here seems odd to me. Imo, it is too early to platoon him full time

[RaymondLuxuryYacht]

 

I'm not OK with a rotation that can't keep up with Cleveland and Houston come October. It's not good enough now, not even close. Ervin Santana would be the 4th starter on both of those teams.

Sounds like you are saying you won't be OK unless the Twins sign three pitchers better than Santana.  That can't be right.

[Nick Nelson]

 

It's not just home runs, it's a poor ERA in the NL, 4.59 ERA in the weak NL Central is more or less a 5.00 ERA in the AL.

It is just the home runs. You realize those were the entire reason for his inflated ERA right? Lackey had a 20% K-rate, a solid walk rate & WHIP, held opponents to a .250 avg. If age was such an inhibiting factor for him, why wouldn't any of those other numbers be in serious decline?

 

His HR/FB rate was 3rd-highest in baseball, and nearly twice his career norm. That's a fluke, not a trend. He does not have "literally zero upside"; his upside is that he goes back to being the pitcher he has been for most of the past 5 years, a solid #2/3 with heaps of playoff experience. 

[DaveW]

 

It is just the home runs. You realize those were the entire reason for his inflated ERA right? Lackey had a 20% K-rate, a solid walk rate & WHIP, held opponents to a .250 avg. If age was such an inhibiting factor for him, why wouldn't any of those other numbers be in serious decline?

 

His HR/FB rate was 3rd-highest in baseball, and nearly twice his career norm. That's a fluke, not a trend. He does not have "literally zero upside"; his upside is that he goes back to being the pitcher he has been for most of the past 5 years, a solid #2/3 with heaps of playoff experience. 

When it comes to a 40 year old, what he did 5, 4 and 3 years ago really doesn't mean a whole lot. If he was 35, it makes more sense.

Most guys just don't bounce back at 40, counting on him bucking the trend and bouncing back is a recipe for failure IMO.

On the flip side his BABIP was actually LUCKY last year, which is why his FIP is over 5.00.

His pull percentage was up quite a bit as well, indicating that his "stuff" is going away, which of course isn't a surprise when dealing with a pitcher as old as he.

 

[DaveW]

 

As we speak, Santana is a number 2. A workable definition of a 3, is one we trust to pitch in a playoff game. Santana is much better than that, therefore a 2. Berrios will show more ceiling in the future. Good enough now, is better than perfect later.

How did Santana do in our most important game of the year? The playoff game?
SSS, of course...but that's sort of the point. Santana is a very solid pitcher, but lacks the "stuff" to really shut down the elite teams, and those are the teams you need to beat in the playoffs.

 

You can't expect to go far in the playoffs with Santana as your staff "ace" pitching 3 games out of 7.

Edited November 9, 2017 by DaveW

[jtkoupal]

That is a valid point. However, I do believe that that philosophy can be overrated. Especially considering that the starter often faces a pinch-hitter for the pitcher anyway. Furthermore, the Dodgers and Diamondbacks, who were in Chatswood's division, did not need a DH to be offensive juggernauts, particularly the Dodgers. This is a concern for many NL free agent pitchers, however, I do not believe that it is always warranted. The pitchers typically adapt. I have little concern for the transition to the AL. 

[Mr. Brooks]

Exactly this. I'm interested in evaluating what these guys can do on the field. If there is meaningful evidence that they have a negative impact as teammates, I'll account for that. But comments like "he divorced his wife while she had cancer 6 years ago" have no place in this analysis IMO.

 

 

 

We get it. How many times are you going to say "hard pass" on this thread?

 

You know who allowed the second-most HR in the AL between 2012 and 2013? Phil Hughes. He did OK in 2014, his first year with the Twins, right? You know who was the only pitcher to give up more? Ervin Santana.

 

When a guy has a fluky year with HR/FB ratio, it should be viewed as an opportunity not a red flag. In the case of Lackey, you're looking at a one-year deal so the risk is minimal.

On field performance at all costs is a fair opinion for some. That doesn't make it the only valid opinion. If I'm hiring an employee, what kind of human being they are is part of the equation for me.

Like I said, I don't know the full story, but I'd definitely ask about it and consider it before pulling the trigger on a hire, some don't care, fair enough.