Why the Twins should stick to the 4/48 bin in free agency

[drjim]

 

The Twins haven't lived up to their own promises regarding spending for at least the previous 4 seasons.

 

Ownership has repeatedly stated a goal of spending at/near 50-55 percent of revenue.  Using best available estimates, they haven't done that since at least 2011.

 

This is not remotely controversial, or questionable.  

 

But also very common for rebuilding teams. Which is his point, right? That the Twins spending is very normal compared to what other teams do.

 

In hindsight (and likely stated at the time) they should have spent less since 2011, been more targeted on 1-2 year deals they could have flipped and built up assets for when the core was ready - like this season. They had to spend a lot of bad money to still fall short of their goals.

[nicksaviking]

Peak Hughes put up a 6 fWAR season, which is better than Darvish has ever done by almost a win and a half. We wouldn't be having this conversation right now if the Twins had a 6 win pitcher in their rotation. It's only one example, of course, but we're able to talk about who the Twins should sign largely because Hughes wasn't the kind of guy you'd give a 7 year deal at 25 million or more AAV. I say spend, but do it wisely.

I don't agree that Hughes at his best could match up with what the other teams could bring in a Game 1 matchup, but I do agree that peak Hughes was the closest. However Hughes also wasn't a 4/48 kind of pitcher, he got a much more modest initial deal; he had the pedigree and the good velocity but hadn't put it all together. If this team wants to try that approach again, it's the more affordable but much higher upside Tyler Chatwood, not Cobb or Lynn, who they should be targeting.

[drjim]

 

Not for Cleveland. Not for Houston.

 

That's not how Cleveland built their rotation. Houston certainly had some nice scores for a year or two.

[howieramone2]

 

Not for Cleveland. Not for Houston.

The difficulty is the same for every team. Maybe you could could share with the board, the who and why, you feel these 2 teams are superior in this regard. 

[Major League Ready]

 

The Twins haven't lived up to their own promises regarding spending for at least the previous 4 seasons.

 

Ownership has repeatedly stated a goal of spending at/near 50-55 percent of revenue.  Using best available estimates, they haven't done that since at least 2011.

 

This is not remotely controversial, or questionable.  

 

I said show us how this team Teams spending is different than the rest of the league.  Spending practices and strategies are not based on a percentage.  It's based on where the team is in terms of development.   Our team has been terrible and now moving into a phase developing a young core.  Teams almost never spend to their full capacity during this period.  Actually, the Twins were overly optimistic and if there is a criticism it should probably be that they did not get whatever they could for any veteran that could be turned for future assets.  The Astros had a season where their payroll was under $40M.

 

The "they said" rebuttal ignores all else that might impact spending practices.  Are the Twins practices any different than the rest of the league?  That's the question at hand.  If you think no, show us supporting documentation.

[gunnarthor]

 

The Twins haven't lived up to their own promises regarding spending for at least the previous 4 seasons.

 

Ownership has repeatedly stated a goal of spending at/near 50-55 percent of revenue.  Using best available estimates, they haven't done that since at least 2011.

 

This is not remotely controversial, or questionable.  

So if you think the Twins haven't spent as much as they could over the last four years (which covers two different front offices) isn't the problem ownership? And we have a pretty long history of ownership being the problem. So why should we expect this to change now? They've stayed cheap and got to the playoffs. 

[drjim]

 

So if you think the Twins haven't spent as much as they could over the last four years (which covers two different front offices) isn't the problem ownership? And we have a pretty long history of ownership being the problem. So why should we expect this to change now? They've stayed cheap and got to the playoffs. 

 

The lesson from the last two champions would suggest the Twins spent too much the last 5 years.

 

Ownership is not a problem, unless you condemn them for not spending at a higher rate than their peer organizations. Good luck fixing that, Pohlads or not.

[prouster]

 

I don't agree that Hughes at his best could match up with what the other teams could bring in a Game 1 matchup, but I do agree that peak Hughes was the closest. However Hughes also wasn't a 4/48 kind of pitcher, he got a much more modest initial deal; he had the pedigree and the good velocity but hadn't put it all together. If this team wants to try that approach again, it's the more affordable but much higher upside Tyler Chatwood, not Cobb or Lynn, who they should be targeting.

 

Hughes in his current state absolutely couldn't match up, but in the first year of his contract he finished fifth among all MLB pitchers in fWAR, ahead of Jon Lester, Chris Sale, Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, Madison Bumgarner, and a whole bunch of others. That's a legit top of the rotation arm. Too bad he got hurt.

 

Otherwise, I agree with pretty much everything you say here. I'm on the Cobb bandwagon, though, because I think he offers the best balance between upside and what the team is likely willing to spend. Otherwise, I think they should focus their resources on the bullpen and signing core players to extensions.

[Rosterman]

But sometimes throwing better than average money at multiple starters when you could of purchased just one stinker instead of two or three is about the same. You take a chance, a gamble. But...yes...you should only overpay as a reward for past service, not service yet to come, in the grand scheme of things.

[kab21]

 

Hughes in his current state absolutely couldn't match up, but in the first year of his contract he finished fifth among all MLB pitchers in fWAR, ahead of Jon Lester, Chris Sale, Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, Madison Bumgarner, and a whole bunch of others. That's a legit top of the rotation arm. Too bad he got hurt.

 

Otherwise, I agree with pretty much everything you say here. I'm on the Cobb bandwagon, though, because I think he offers the best balance between upside and what the team is likely willing to spend. Otherwise, I think they should focus their resources on the bullpen and signing core players to extensions.

But he wasn't. This is overvaluing single season pitching WAR. He had a lucky HR rate and this value that keeps getting referenced was 2.5x his previous best (or best since). 

He was very good but very few people are putting him amongst the elite arms in the majors.

[USAFChief]

 

The lesson from the last two champions would suggest the Twins spent too much the last 5 years.

 

Ownership is not a problem, unless you condemn them for not spending at a higher rate than their peer organizations. Good luck fixing that, Pohlads or not.

If ownership takes the savings from the past half decade, and invests it into this season and the following half decade, I'll agree they're not part of the problem.

 

 

[USAFChief]

 

But he wasn't. This is overvaluing single season pitching WAR. He had a lucky HR rate and this value that keeps getting referenced was 2.5x his previous best (or best since). 

He was very good but very few people are putting him amongst the elite arms in the majors.

He was a true home run FA signing...who should have been kept on the cheap, 3 yr contract he got as a FA.  The extension was (and is) the problem.

[kab21]

 

He was a true home run FA signing...who should have been kept on the cheap, 3 yr contract he got as a FA.  The extension was (and is) the problem.

Maybe yes - Maybe no

The hindsight argument that you are applying changes a lot if he doesn't get injured and pitches a solid 3.75-4.00 ERA the next 2 seasons. He would have been an outstanding value if he had merely been very good.

Teams should be doing extensions with players 2 years before they become FA's and that is exactly when they locked him up. He got hurt and that sucks A LOT.

[gunnarthor]

 

He was very good but very few people are putting him amongst the elite arms in the majors.

I think we're getting a little off track. There is no true elite arm in free agency right now. We're talking about guys like Darvish, Arrieta, Cobb etc. There isn't a Kershaw to be had. The idea that we need an elite pitcher to win in the postseason has been discussed in multiple threads but it's generally not true. We need good pitching but several teams have won the World Series with starters who aren't putting up 5 WAR seasons. 

[kab21]

I think the original posts analysis is a little flawed but I will return to the same point as him.

 

He has a line drawn at 4/48 and is classifying everything above this as a big contract and inferring a level of near elite-ness by contract value.

 

In reality the Garza's, Jimenez's, Chen's and many others are very similar to Ervin and Nolasco except that they got the high range of the incredibly average pitchers. The key here which returns to the 4/48 bargain bin is that the Twins shouldn't get into a bidding war for average pitchers and pay for them near the top of that range. They should focus on signing pitchers near the bottom of this range (like Cobb's predicted 4/48 - likely higher imo).

FWIW - I would consider this tier of pitchers starting at 30-40M (40+M now) and going up to 80+M (maybe 100M now). Samardzija and Sanchez are right on the border of these two tiers. Sanchez it should be noted has had numerous injuries and this is something that happens to pitchers. Samardzija will likely end up with surplus value 

 

Out of the true big contract pitchers I see a fair amount of value. 4 contracts yielded near elite pitchers (Greinkex2 - Scherzer - Tanaka) and one is a complete bust (Zimmerman). Lester will probably be just below the 20 WAR value that I would expect from his contract. Cueto and Price are big concerns due to injury but that is the ongoing story with investing in pitching. Some of them get injured. If you always pass due to this then you won't ever have any pitching (unless you get lucky with Arrieta type waiver claims/minor trades).

[drjim]

 

If ownership takes the savings from the past half decade, and invests it into this season and the following half decade, I'll agree they're not part of the problem.

 

I doubt that will literally happen, but I suspect they'll push the budget if they keep this window open for the next 4-6 years.

 

Again, not sure you'll see peer organizations operating any differently.

[kab21]

 

I think we're getting a little off track. There is no true elite arm in free agency right now. We're talking about guys like Darvish, Arrieta, Cobb etc. There isn't a Kershaw to be had. The idea that we need an elite pitcher to win in the postseason has been discussed in multiple threads but it's generally not true. We need good pitching but several teams have won the World Series with starters who aren't putting up 5 WAR seasons. 

The elite tier doesn't end with Kershaw. I would definitely put Darvish in that tier regardless of his WAR not quite hitting 5 WAR. Tanaka would be also but he has resigned. Arrieta was in that tier isn't going forward. 

 

Cobb and Lynn most definitely aren't though. The Twins shouldn't pay them like they are near elite (80+M) but they should sign either for 50ish unless they have a bigger trade planned (like for Cole or better).

[gunnarthor]

 

The elite tier doesn't end with Kershaw. I would definitely put Darvish in that tier regardless of his WAR not quite hitting 5 WAR. Tanaka would be also but he has resigned. Arrieta was in that tier isn't going forward. 

 

Cobb and Lynn most definitely aren't though. The Twins shouldn't pay them like they are near elite (80+M) but they should sign either for 50ish unless they have a bigger trade planned (like for Cole or better).

I think this is an interesting "eye of the beholder" thing. Darvish has had one season where he was above 4 WAR and that was four years ago. He's had one season where he topped 200ip. He's missed significant parts of three seasons with injuries.  And he's been roughed up in the postseason (SSS warning).  He'll be 31 next year. Sure, in any game, he can be as good as anyone but that's true of many pitchers. I tend to think of elite pitchers as being a touch more durable and a bit more dominating. 

 

[mazeville]

 

TR's first draft back in 2012 was a strong one. Take a look at how well the 2013 draft matured this season. When all is said and done, all of TR's drafts will be good ones. 

 

Come on. 

 

This drives me insane. TR missed on several drafts. Several. He's had high draft picks -- so of course that 2012 draft was a good one. (And he gets kudos for that)

 

But his drafts since have not been nearly as good. Tyler Jay will be a reliever. Kohl Stewart's expectations have fallen so much it's not even funny. Nick Gordon is a good prospect but a lot of people don't think he'll stick at short, and his upside is limited. 

 

Thank God for Stephen Gonsalves. 

[gunnarthor]

 

Come on. 

 

This drives me insane. TR missed on several drafts. Several. He's had high draft picks -- so of course that 2012 draft was a good one. (And he gets kudos for that)

 

But his drafts since have not been nearly as good. Tyler Jay will be a reliever. Kohl Stewart's expectations have fallen so much it's not even funny. Nick Gordon is a good prospect but a lot of people don't think he'll stick at short, and his upside is limited. 

 

Thank God for Stephen Gonsalves. 

So if Gonsalves was the first rounder and Stewart the fourth rounder, does that change your opinion?

 

I tend to agree with Howie, the 2012-2016 drafts were more or less better than what should be reasonably expected of drafts and how they work although the Jay thing bugs me. The 2016 draft is extremely exciting, IMHO.

[Major League Ready]

 

I think this is an interesting "eye of the beholder" thing. Darvish has had one season where he was above 4 WAR and that was four years ago. He's had one season where he topped 200ip. He's missed significant parts of three seasons with injuries.  And he's been roughed up in the postseason (SSS warning).  He'll be 31 next year. Sure, in any game, he can be as good as anyone but that's true of many pitchers. I tend to think of elite pitchers as being a touch more durable and a bit more dominating. 

 

His profile is exactly what we should avoid in my estimation.

[howieramone2]

 

Come on. 

 

This drives me insane. TR missed on several drafts. Several. He's had high draft picks -- so of course that 2012 draft was a good one. (And he gets kudos for that)

 

But his drafts since have not been nearly as good. Tyler Jay will be a reliever. Kohl Stewart's expectations have fallen so much it's not even funny. Nick Gordon is a good prospect but a lot of people don't think he'll stick at short, and his upside is limited. 

 

Thank God for Stephen Gonsalves. 

Name one. 

[mazeville]

 

So if Gonsalves was the first rounder and Stewart the fourth rounder, does that change your opinion?

 

I tend to agree with Howie, the 2012-2016 drafts were more or less better than what should be reasonably expected of drafts and how they work although the Jay thing bugs me. The 2016 draft is extremely exciting, IMHO.

 

No. It's a moot point, anyway.

 

The Twins drafted 2nd, 4th, 5th and 6th during that four-year run of futility. For that we had one potentially great player in Byron Buxton. One good prospect in Nick Gordon whose strength is more in his high floor than his high ceiling. And two misses -- Tyler Jay and Kohl Stewart. 

 

I thought the Buxton pick was a no brainer, and fully defensible no matter who was drafted afterwards. Let's give the Twins the benefit of the doubt on Nick Gordon. But boy, Aaron Nola would look good in the Twins' pitching rotation right now. Or, I don't know, Trea Turner. 

 

Tyler Jay was a horrible pick. He was a reliever. The Twins wanted to convert him into a starter. The Twins instead could have had Andrew Benintendi. Among others.

 

Kohl Stewart was a flat-out miss. 

 

I get that the MLB draft is more of a crapshoot than other drafts. But when a team drafts that high, that often, it has to hit more than once. 

 

[mazeville]

 

Name one. 

 

I'll name two: 2014 and 2015.

 

Sure, Nick Gordon is a decent prospect. But nobody else has worked out below that.

 

The Tyler Jay draft was terrible. 

[nicksaviking]

That's not how Cleveland built their rotation. Houston certainly had some nice scores for a year or two.

Cleveland's homegrown starters consist solely of Salazar and Tomlin. Everyone else was acquired as undervalued high upside young arms even while it wasn't apparent to the baseball world at the time.

 

I'm not trying to give the impression that I want the rotation fixed through free agency; the free agent arms aren't very appealing. I'm just saying if they do use free agency, go for the higher upside. Cobb and Lynn will be good signings for a team with a top heavy rotation; they'd make good #3 pitchers but the Twins already have those. A team signing Cobb and Lynn to be #1 or #2 arms is as good as conceding they won't be contending for a WS next year.

[Twins33]

I'll name two: 2014 and 2015.

 

Sure, Nick Gordon is a decent prospect. But nobody else has worked out below that.

 

The Tyler Jay draft was terrible.

 

its really too early to judge those drafts. If you hit on 2-3 guys who contribute then drafts are considered a success.

 

Gordon is good and so is Hildenberger. And even though he's always injured, I wouldn't close the book on Burdi yet. So the 2014 draft still can be considered good in my eyes.

 

I also thinks it's too early to call on 2015, but that one seems more likely to not be a good draft. If Jay works out as a RP and someone like Wade becomes a regular then I'd give it a so-so grade instead of a full bust, but again this draft was very recent. Guys can suddenly "get it." I'd rather have someone else than Jay, sure, but not every draft is going to work out.

 

To add: the Twins can be and need to be better at drafting than they have been. I remember a post here which had the Twins either in the middle or bottom half-ish as far as draft success compared to other teams. A team like the Twins needs to find a way to improve that. Hopefully they can.

[Vanimal46]

 

No. It's a moot point, anyway.

 

The Twins drafted 2nd, 4th, 5th and 6th during that four-year run of futility. For that we had one potentially great player in Byron Buxton. One good prospect in Nick Gordon whose strength is more in his high floor than his high ceiling. And two misses -- Tyler Jay and Kohl Stewart. 

 

I thought the Buxton pick was a no brainer, and fully defensible no matter who was drafted afterwards. Let's give the Twins the benefit of the doubt on Nick Gordon. But boy, Aaron Nola would look good in the Twins' pitching rotation right now. Or, I don't know, Trea Turner. 

 

Tyler Jay was a horrible pick. He was a reliever. The Twins wanted to convert him into a starter. The Twins instead could have had Andrew Benintendi. Among others.

 

Kohl Stewart was a flat-out miss. 

 

I get that the MLB draft is more of a crapshoot than other drafts. But when a team drafts that high, that often, it has to hit more than once. 

 

I don't think it's that out of the ordinary to have 1 great player, 1 good-could be great player, and a couple of misses over a 4 year period of drafting. I was trying to find teams that had a similar draft position to the Twins and see their progress. An example is the Marlins:

2011 - Jose Fernandez (14th overall) - was a star before his tragic death

2012- Andrew Heaney (9th overall) - traded 2 years later for immediate MLB help - TJS in 2016 - if you squint, he's a #3/#4 

2013 - Colin Moran (6th overall) - oft-injured player that was traded to Houston 1.5 years after he was drafted. Got a cup of coffee in the MLB so far. 

2014 - Tyler Kolek (2nd overall) - massive bust. Out for the last 2 seasons due to injuries.

2015 - Josh Naylor (12th overall) - traded to the Padres 1 year after he was drafted. Touted as a power hitter, but hasn't shown the ability. Currently in AA. 

2016 - Braxton Garrett (7th overall) - Currently in A ball. 

 

 

Baseball drafts are always a crapshoot. The Twins are better than some at drafting, and probably worse than others. 

[Mike Sixel]

If 4/48 is adjusted for baseball inflation, sure. But if people think they can get even a decent free agent for 12 per year now, they are mistaken, imo. Crossing off Cobb for Lynn for price means you pretty much never spend on even a decent option. Maybe I read the OP wrong, but if the can't afford a mid level free agent, good luck to them.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I would be happy as a clam if he pitched very well in AAA for 2018 and earned an August callup.  But your right he's a couple of seasons away realistically.

Thorpe pitched around 75 innings last season. He's not on the table for a 2018 callup.

 

The weird thing is that despite all his injuries and ailments, the dude is still only 21 years old. His birthday is in a few days.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I think this is an interesting "eye of the beholder" thing. Darvish has had one season where he was above 4 WAR and that was four years ago. He's had one season where he topped 200ip. He's missed significant parts of three seasons with injuries.  And he's been roughed up in the postseason (SSS warning).  He'll be 31 next year. Sure, in any game, he can be as good as anyone but that's true of many pitchers. I tend to think of elite pitchers as being a touch more durable and a bit more dominating. 

Yeah, I don't know how Darvish turned into an elite arm. He's marginally better than Ervin Santana and I'd put Santana in the third tier of pitching, maybe the bottom of the second tier if I was feeling generous.