Why the Twins should stick to the 4/48 bin in free agency

[prouster]

 

Of course TJ is a pretty big injury. Has anyone said that it isn't? 

The important part that should be looked at is that he has pitched nearly 300 IP of 11+ K/9 and 2.8 BB/9 baseball since the injury. Being injured for 3 seasons is a meaningless criticism since that is what happens if someone goes the rest and rehab route and then gets TJ the next spring. And we are at a point where TJ isn't an unusual thing to recover from (not 100%) but we have a pretty good 300 IP sample that says he has recovered.

I don't necessarily disagree with your assessment that he is a risk to sign but I do disagree with your analysis since you have put up some conveniently placed goalposts that he just misses. His performance level is certainly at an ace level. He just happened to have TJ that wiped out 1 full season and 2 partial seasons.

 

I agree that he's bounced back strongly, and I don't feel all that passionately that the TJ surgery is that much of a red flag given his performance since. Still, it is a red flag, and given his age I think it would be foolish to ignore it entirely.

 

I think your second paragraph may be responding to somebody else. 

[gunnarthor]

 

I don't necessarily disagree with your assessment that he is a risk to sign but I do disagree with your analysis since you have put up some conveniently placed goalposts that he just misses. His performance level is certainly at an ace level. He just happened to have TJ that wiped out 1 full season and 2 partial seasons.

He's 17th in fWAR, 21st in bWAR, 28th in fip among starters with at least 140 innings. That's a pretty good pitcher but I don't think he's an ace. I think he's a solid #2 - and he certainly isn't going to get a Grienke, Kershaw or Scherzer (sp) contract. 

 

He'd be the Twins best pitcher next year unless Berrios makes a small jump.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

He's 17th in fWAR, 21st in bWAR, 28th in fip among starters with at least 140 innings. That's a pretty good pitcher but I don't think he's an ace. I think he's a solid #2 - and he certainly isn't going to get a Grienke, Kershaw or Scherzer (sp) contract. 

 

He'd be the Twins best pitcher next year unless Berrios makes a small jump.

We've wandered back into the "what defines an ace?" argument!

 

HIGH FIVES EVERYBODY

 

Seriously, though, I think we've clearly established that the board will never agree on what defines an ace pitcher.

[kab21]

 

I agree that he's bounced back strongly, and I don't feel all that passionately that the TJ surgery is that much of a red flag given his performance since. Still, it is a red flag, and given his age I think it would be foolish to ignore it entirely.

 

I think your second paragraph may be responding to somebody else. 

Every pitcher has a red flag. Every single one. Nobody is ignoring it.

[kab21]

 

He's 17th in fWAR, 21st in bWAR, 28th in fip among starters with at least 140 innings. That's a pretty good pitcher but I don't think he's an ace. I think he's a solid #2 - and he certainly isn't going to get a Grienke, Kershaw or Scherzer (sp) contract. 

 

He'd be the Twins best pitcher next year unless Berrios makes a small jump.

Stats that use FIP don't adjust for park effect. Your analysis pretty clearly shows that he is no doubt a top 30 pitcher and probably a top 15 pitcher.

 

We've wandered back into the "what defines an ace?" argument!

 

HIGH FIVES EVERYBODY

 

Seriously, though, I think we've clearly established that the board will never agree on what defines an ace pitcher.

 

You get a high five for saying that he was a marginally better version of Ervin Santana at the top end of the third tier of pitching. You later conceded.

I also find the ace arguments rather silly but I highly doubt that people can name 20 better starting pitchers. If people are restricting ace to the top 5-8 no doubters then fine but Yu is a great pitcher.

[jimmer]

FIP- is park and league adjusted.

 

Much like ERA- and xFIP- are.

 

Darvus is tied for 29th in FIP-

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

You get a high five for saying that he was a marginally better version of Ervin Santana at the top end of the third tier of pitching. You later conceded.

Yep, was going from foggy memory and didn't double check the stat lines before posting. I thought Darvish had pitched ~150 innings the years he was injured, not 100 in one of the years. That elevates his per-inning performance considerably and vaults him into the "close enough that I don't care to argue whether he's an ace pitcher" category.

[prouster]

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/11/latest-on-shohei-otani-4.html

 

Apologies if this isn't the appropriate thread, but MLB Trade Rumors mentions in the linked article that the Twins are one of six teams that could offer Shohei Otani a seven figure contract. They have about $3.25 million in their international bonus pool, virtually the same amount as the Yankees. Texas is the only team that could offer more.

 

It's possible the Twins could jockey for position via trades for additional pool money (the article doesn't say this, just my two cents).

[GP830]

My impression is that most good teams don't spend this kind of money on starting pitchers. They build from within and they spend bigger money when it's necessary. Spending on middle of the road guy does nothing but add to the middle-of-the-roadness of an already middle-of-the-road team. I'd rather hedge my bets on Gonsalves, Romero, or Jorge, being able to help shore up the back-end of the rotation if need be, and spend 4/48 on top end BP help. 

[jimmer]

I might look to trade for a Danny Salazar type.

[GP830]

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/11/latest-on-shohei-otani-4.html

Apologies if this isn't the appropriate thread, but MLB Trade Rumors mentions in the linked article that the Twins are one of six teams that could offer Shohei Otani a seven figure contract. They have about $3.25 million in their international bonus pool, virtually the same amount as the Yankees. Texas is the only team that could offer more.

It's possible the Twins could jockey for position via trades for additional pool money (the article doesn't say this, just my two cents).

Interesting! Not only does it say they're one of 6, it says they're one of the top 3. Of the top 3, I could see Texas being not as sexy for Otani because they are seemingly on the downturn of their competitive window, but I could see the Yankees being very alluring due to the history, young core, and affiliation with Tanaka. The Twins of course may be right in the middle.

 

If pool money can be acquired via trade-- wouldn't some other team be inclined to just pay pool money for prospects?

 

Another thought-- it might appeal to him that with Sano's question marks and Mauer's uncertain future-- there may be a real opportunity for him to hit on off days. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[gunnarthor]

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/11/latest-on-shohei-otani-4.html

Apologies if this isn't the appropriate thread, but MLB Trade Rumors mentions in the linked article that the Twins are one of six teams that could offer Shohei Otani a seven figure contract. They have about $3.25 million in their international bonus pool, virtually the same amount as the Yankees. Texas is the only team that could offer more.

It's possible the Twins could jockey for position via trades for additional pool money (the article doesn't say this, just my two cents).

I imagine there's going to be an under the table deal with whatever team signs him to give him an extension worth 100m+ as soon as possible. MLB is supposed to be looking out for that and trying to prevent it but it's probably going to happen anyway.  

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/11/latest-on-shohei-otani-4.html

Apologies if this isn't the appropriate thread, but MLB Trade Rumors mentions in the linked article that the Twins are one of six teams that could offer Shohei Otani a seven figure contract. They have about $3.25 million in their international bonus pool, virtually the same amount as the Yankees. Texas is the only team that could offer more.

It's possible the Twins could jockey for position via trades for additional pool money (the article doesn't say this, just my two cents).

sure does seem as though they've positioned themselves for this... I don't like competing with Texas or NY though.

[Penthang]

The Twins won't go get high priced FA pitchers/players anyway, so hopefully this new regime will figure out how to get the system to develop quality pitchers cause if we are just pushing to keep the status quo on FA, we better figure out a better pitching philosophy to teach the guys we draft.

I am fairly sure that experience developing pitching and working with a lower payroll level than the top half of the league is why Falvey got the job. It appears that with The change in minor league pitching coordinators (they said they were going to replace the position with two people) that he is beginning the process. Can this have a major impact on this years Twins? Possibly by mid season. I’d would be happy with a second year of call ups moving the needle for this team.

 

With that said they need some help now, just not help that they need to commit too much money or years to. I don’t think I can handle another Nolasco type result. Hopefully the investment they have made in scouting and analytics can find the right help either through free agency or trade.

[drjim]

An update from Heyman. Looks like the Twins are thinking big.

 

https://www.fanragsports.com/heyman-twins-could-target-top-tier-free-agent-starters/

[gunnarthor]

 

An update from Heyman. Looks like the Twins are thinking big.

 

https://www.fanragsports.com/heyman-twins-could-target-top-tier-free-agent-starters/

Well, that would be something. Heyman's one of the better reporters in baseball so that's exciting, I guess? I'm still worried about how a 6yr deal for Darvish would impact our ability to keep our young core but that's a different time/issue.

[drjim]

 

Well, that would be something. Heyman's one of the better reporters in baseball so that's exciting, I guess? I'm still worried about how a 6yr deal for Darvish would impact our ability to keep our young core but that's a different time/issue.

 

On this type of stuff Heyman is pretty plugged in and legit.

 

6 year deal would be something. I'm with you on prioritizing a 4 year deal, even if it is a step down.

[Mike Sixel]

Not Arrieta, please.

[diehardtwinsfan]

yeah, Darvish or Lynn if they go big. I'm with you on Arrieta.

[nicksaviking]

 

We've wandered back into the "what defines an ace?" argument!

 

HIGH FIVES EVERYBODY

 

Seriously, though, I think we've clearly established that the board will never agree on what defines an ace pitcher.

 

I don't need to define an ace, I'd rather just look at it as a game of 1-on-1.

 

In next year's WC game, does the guy the Twins are targeting have a fair chance of out-dueling the guy the other team will run out to the mound? Does the Twins #2 then have a chance to out-duel the next team's top dog in Game 1 of the ALCS?

[jimmer]

I think of it as this:

 

Pitchers don't go head to head or compete against each other. Pitches face the opposing lineups.

[gunnarthor]

 

I don't need to define an ace, I'd rather just look at it as a game of 1-on-1.

 

In next year's WC game, does the guy the Twins are targeting have a fair chance of out-dueling the guy the other team will run out to the mound? Does the Twins #2 then have a chance to out-duel the next team's top dog in Game 1 of the ALCS?

Hey, Santana outperformed Servino in the WC game, at least!