Trade market for starting pitchers

[clone52]

 

Yes. Absolutely. Trade prospects for actual MLB ace and very good pitching, relief and starting. Of all the prospects you are considering, maybe 2 or 3 pan out. It is Falvey/Levine's job to pick the right ones and sell high on the others, before they lose value. What makes a great front office, is making those choices and DOING SOMETHING, and hopefully making the right choices.... like drafting Judge instead of Kohl Stewart....... Andrew Benintendi over Tyler Jay...... not a trade, but similar point. It is the success of the crap shoot choices that make you successful. Hopefully, they will be and will do somethings that make our team a champion again.

 

That's been the argument/plan for the last several years, and they've generally been sinking.

 

No, the argument/plan the last several years is sign cheap veterans and hope it works out.  Sometimes it does, sometimes it doesn't.

2017:  Breslow, Belisle

2016: Abad, Kintzler

2015:  Boyer, Stauffer

 

I wouldn't say they young guys have been sinking, they've just been moved up the chain really slowly.  Chargois and Burdi were supposed to be the first two.  Chargois was shaky in his first chance, but I don't think you give up on him.  Now both of them are injured.

 

Curtiss and Moya were a little shaky in their first stints, but to early to give up on them.

 

Jay, Bard, Eades, Melotakis, Reed are all knocking on the door for their first chance.

 

To early to give up on any of these guys.  Take a look at some of the top relievers this year

David Robertson was 5.34 ERA his first year

Andrew Miller was 6.10 ERA his first year

Dellin Betances was 10.80 his first year as a reliever.

 

Plenty of others failed miserably and others were studs from the get go.

[prouster]

Do not have fear because of the Nishidupia experiment. Just cause Nishioka failed doesn't mean the pitchers would.

A slight addendum: just because Nishioka failed doesn't mean other Japanese players would. Nationality has nothing to do with it.

[prouster]

Especially if the drafting team is the Twins. How are our first round pitchers doing?

Berrios had a fine season (1s pick). Other than him, there aren't many first rounders in the system. Stewart had a decent year. Jay dealt with injuries.

[prouster]

What makes a great front office, is making those choices and DOING SOMETHING, and hopefully making the right choices.... like drafting Judge instead of Kohl Stewart....... Andrew Benintendi over Tyler Jay...... not a trade, but similar point. It is the success of the crap shoot choices that make you successful. Hopefully, they will be and will do somethings that make our team a champion again.

I can't understand why people continue to assess drafts this way. It's cherry picking at it's finest. Yes, if only MLB would allow the Twins to make their picks 3-4 years *after* the draft. They'd never miss.

[Major League Ready]

 

Wouldn't that team want to keep their Gonsalves type?  (Also, wouldn't Ervin's AAV be similar to that of Lynn?)

 

 

 

Teams "like" Baltimore, who have a Gonsalves type to trade? This isn't that hard, there are only 29 other MLB teams.  How many teams are "like" Baltimore in this regard*** and have a Gonsalves type to spare?

 

9 teams we can probably discount as having no interest in trading quality MLB ready SP prospects at this time:

ATL

CIN

CHW

DET

OAK

PIT

PHI

SDP

TBR

 

16 more don't have a Gonsalves type to trade, even if they wanted (defining "Gonsalves type" as a top 100 SP prospect with at least AA experience, using MLB's current top 100 list for reference).  This is the most subjective part of the exercise, but just eyeballing it, it doesn't look there is a ton of talent just bubbling under the top 100 either.

ARI

BAL

BOS

CHC

CLE

COL

HOU

KCR

LAA

MIA

NYM

SEA

SFG

TEX

TOR

WSN

 

That leaves 4 teams with a "Gonsalves type" who would even consider trading it for Ervin.

LAD - Walker Buehler and Yadier Alvarez

MIL - Luis Ortiz and Brandon Woodruff

NYY - Chance Adams and Justus Sheffield

STL - Alex Reyes and Jack Flaherty

 

Buehler and Reyes are top 15 prospects, so they are probably off the table for Ervin.  Seems doubtful that the Dodgers or especially the Yankees would see trading top prospects for Ervin as any kind of difference-maker towards their goals either.

 

St. Louis (Flaherty) seems doubtful too -- they probably would have locked up Lynn or wouldn't have salary-dumped Leake if an Ervin-type starter was that much of a priority, no?

 

Then there's the Brewers (Ortiz and Woodruff).  Would we want one of them for Santana?  They seem like low-upside types, and Ortiz isn't particularly ready (just threw a pro high of 94 innings, all at AA in 2017, with middling results/peripherals).

 

Feel free to use this as a springboard for your own specific proposals.  If you want to target names from last year's top 100, it wouldn't take much time either -- but there aren't a ton of guys "like" Martes and Glasnow who graduated from that list (and quite a few like De Leon and Beede and Reid-Foley who dropped off for health/performance reasons).

 

 

*** Does Baltimore really "love" veterans, to the point they'd rather have Ervin than a Gonsalves type, or are they just bad a finding and developing Gonsalves types?  They have Bundy and Gausman in their rotation now, and Tillman was up at age 21 and locked in to their rotation by age 24, so I don't know if they are particularly afraid of committing to young pitchers, they may just have trouble finding them.

 

Great assessment of the situation.  You have put some concrete information behind the speculation.  It's much easier to just assume a deal can get done.  Of course, when you have specifics, it becomes clear why these deals don't fall into place like we (fans) expect.

[old nurse]

 

I can't understand why people continue to assess drafts this way. It's cherry picking at it's finest. Yes, if only MLB would allow the Twins to make their picks 3-4 years *after* the draft. They'd never miss.

Well, geeex, ya know if the front office were only jus a little smarter they coulda drafted that Trout kid iinstead of whoever they drafted.   I really hope they fired the toolsy outfielder scout guy over that one.

[cmoss84]

Is there a better time than right now to go after an ace in the trade market?

* This team has proven it is good enough to get to the playoffs.

* Most of our best players are young and getting paid close to nothing

* We have a good list of prospects and can put together good packages teams will be interested in

* We need a true ace REALLY bad

* We have decent depth at most positions, and would even after trading 3-4 players

* We're going to have several logjams at several different positions very soon

 

I'd say it's time to pull the trigger. Go get DeGrom. 

[drjim]

Is there a better time than right now to go after an ace in the trade market?

* This team has proven it is good enough to get to the playoffs.

* Most of our best players are young and getting paid close to nothing

* We have a good list of prospects and can put together good packages teams will be interested in

* We need a true ace REALLY bad

* We have decent depth at most positions, and would even after trading 3-4 players

* We're going to have several logjams at several different positions very soon

 

I'd say it's time to pull the trigger. Go get DeGrom.

Can't get an ace with only prospects, not enough in the system. Going to take Kepler, Rosario or Polanco.

[Monkeypaws]

I'm watching ace expensive starting pitching get ripped to shreds in this playoffs. Maybe putting the money in a good DH would be cheaper...better spent.

[PseudoSABR]

I think we should be cautious in terms of giving up assets; recall two years ago, many were calling for an Ace after our 83 win season.  Now that we've won 85, should we really be that much more confident (I think we're clearly a better team, but not so much so that it's worth gutting the next guys up.)  

 

I'd rather the team, go after a Lynn or Cobb, and wait to trade for a starter until next year's deadline, when we have a much better sense of our playoff odds and the value of our prospects and their proximity to helping the ML club...

[Twodogs]

After thinking about it, jmo, but I think the Twins need to go after a guy like Lynn or Cobb in the free agency market and they need to win it, whoever they want. That would give them

Lynn/Cobb

Santana

Berrios

Gibson

Mejia/Gonsalves/Romero/May/etc...

 

Not great but better than this year overall. It's a good enough staff to get them to the postseason once again. They need that guy that can average pitching 6 innings a game. Then they need to also sign two solid bullpen guys, they are cheaper, and it appears that the starters get you to the playoffs and it seems that the bullpen wins in the playoffs. So the bullpen arms can be gotten at less of a cost. But they still need one guy like a Lynn to take over for Santana in a year. Just my thoughts.

[cmoss84]

Can't get an ace with only prospects, not enough in the system. Going to take Kepler, Rosario or Polanco.

If we have to give up one of those 3, you still have to do it. We can GET to the playoffs. Hard to advance without an ace. Ervin and Jose are 2's.

[cmoss84]

After thinking about it, jmo, but I think the Twins need to go after a guy like Lynn or Cobb in the free agency market and they need to win it, whoever they want.

That would give them

Lynn/Cobb

Santana

Berrios

Gibson

Mejia/Gonsalves/Romero/May/etc...

Not great but better than this year overall. It's a good enough staff to get them to the postseason once again. They need that guy that can average pitching 6 innings a game. Then they need to also sign two solid bullpen guys, they are cheaper, and it appears that the starters get you to the playoffs and it seems that the bullpen wins in the playoffs. So the bullpen arms can be gotten at less of a cost. But they still need one guy like a Lynn to take over for Santana in a year. Just my thoughts.

Would love to get either of those guys...but I think they stay where they're at. Cobb might be easier to pry away since TB doesn't spend money, but I still think he stays.

[old nurse]

 

If we have to give up one of those 3, you still have to do it. We can GET to the playoffs. Hard to advance without an ace. Ervin and Jose are 2's.

Sonny Gray would also be  2 and he cost 3 high ceiling prospects. The Twins have no high level high ceiling prospects, it might cost 2 of the 3 mentioned. While it is hard to win without an "ace" in the WS, it is harder to get there without hitting.

[Homer Hanky]

Yes, we need starting pitching... but, we have some studs in the wings... how about some super relievers! 

 

And a DH... unless we make Sano the DH to keep him off his feet more. 

 

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

Would love to get either of those guys...but I think they stay where they're at. Cobb might be easier to pry away since TB doesn't spend money, but I still think he stays.

Lynn and Cobb are free agents. I think there is almost zero chance Tampa Bay re-signs Cobb, it would take the biggest FA contract in their club history. Plus their rotation is stacked.

 

St. Louis likely has the money for Lynn, but they too have a lot of SP options. The fact they haven't locked him up yet suggests he is probably not a priority to them at market prices.

[mikelink45]

Stick with what we have - develop pitchers.  Save your resources.  When we are on the verge of being good enough to be World Series material use assets to get the final piece, but do not waste them to get a little bit better.  I want young arms.  Boston thought that they were set with Price - now he is an overpaid relief pitcher.  Kershaw and Bumgartner have had injuries and missed games and will miss more as they age.  Most pitchers do not last, the strength of pitching is getting the young arms to the point where they can give you good innings. 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Yes. But a team can’t draft an entire pitching staff and have them ready to perform at the MLB level in 2 years.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/10/how-they-were-acquired-cleveland-indians-alds-roster.html

 

Indians are about 50/50 draft and trade for their amazing pitching on the ALDS roster.

 

There are some high upside arms in the Twins system, and some trade chips. I'm interested to see what Falvine can do with them.

[drjim]

Stick with what we have - develop pitchers. Save your resources. When we are on the verge of being good enough to be World Series material use assets to get the final piece, but do not waste them to get a little bit better. I want young arms. Boston thought that they were set with Price - now he is an overpaid relief pitcher. Kershaw and Bumgartner have had injuries and missed games and will miss more as they age. Most pitchers do not last, the strength of pitching is getting the young arms to the point where they can give you good innings.

I generally agree in regards to trades this offseason, but they are in a goid position to spend money on one solid mid rotation starter. And they prettt much have to. There is no guarantee any of the young guys, including Mejia, will provide any quality in 2018. Rolling with Santana, Berrios, Gibson, and a FA strikes me as the bare minimum they need to do.

[jorgenswest]

The Indians are an interesting case. It might be a case for trades and patience.

 

The gave up a lot to get Bauer and Shaw in a three team trade. A similar trade might be Rosario and Gordon to the Pirates for Glasnow and Rivero.

 

They identified the talent in Kluber and acquired him at a reasonable cost. The Twins will need to be similarly talented in acquiring minor leaguers for middling veterans.

 

Carrasco was a prospect in the Cliff Lee deal. The Twins don’t have a Cliff Lee to trade but they can find a good prospect for Santana and it would be up to them to identify that good pitching prospect.

 

They also found the talent Clevenger and acquired him inexpensively.

 

Salazar and Tomlin are homegrown and maybe the Twins have them in Romero and Gibson. Maybe they have a homegrown version of Cody Allen developing.

 

In order to be successful, the Twins will need to be better than most at identifiying talent and they need to be willing to trade some key players and prospects. After that will take some patience as many of those deals took a few years to pay off for the Indians. Once they are close, they can make that trade deadline deal for a great reliever.

 

The trade rumor article is helpful. I do wonder how many failed prospects the Indians have acquired I. Trade in the last 5 years.

[Darius]

I think I'd go the route of signing somebody via free agency, and expect one of Mejia, Gonsalves, or Romero fill the fifth spot.

 

You have Santana, Berrios, Gibson, Free Agent, Mejia/Gonsalves/Romero.

 

That could be a solid rotation if you can add a serviceable guy in the 4th slot.

[old nurse]

 

The Indians are an interesting case. It might be a case for trades and patience.

The gave up a lot to get Bauer and Shaw in a three team trade. A similar trade might be Rosario and Gordon to the Pirates for Glasnow and Rivero.

They identified the talent in Kluber and acquired him at a reasonable cost. The Twins will need to be similarly talented in acquiring minor leaguers for middling veterans.

Carrasco was a prospect in the Cliff Lee deal. The Twins don’t have a Cliff Lee to trade but they can find a good prospect for Santana and it would be up to them to identify that good pitching prospect.

They also found the talent Clevenger and acquired him inexpensively.

Salazar and Tomlin are homegrown and maybe the Twins have them in Romero and Gibson. Maybe they have a homegrown version of Cody Allen developing.

In order to be successful, the Twins will need to be better than most at identifiying talent and they need to be willing to trade some key players and prospects. After that will take some patience as many of those deals took a few years to pay off for the Indians. Once they are close, they can make that trade deadline deal for a great reliever.

The trade rumor article is helpful. I do wonder how many failed prospects the Indians have acquired I. Trade in the last 5 years.

Choo was going to be a 30 year old outfielder.  That is in no way comparable to Rosario or any other Twin outfielder. Grossman would be close if you want to call him an outfielder. Everything else they sent out was housecleaning of soon to be free agents. Gregorius was a Red and already playing in the big leagues  The Twins do need to trade aging, soon to be free agents for developable talent. If only Dave Stewart were still running a club or Loria having BOGO sales.

[jorgenswest]

Choo was going to be a 30 year old outfielder.  That is in no way comparable to Rosario or any other Twin outfielder. Grossman would be close if you want to call him an outfielder. Everything else they sent out was housecleaning of soon to be free agents. Gregorius was a Red and already playing in the big leagues  The Twins do need to trade aging, soon to be free agents for developable talent. If only Dave Stewart were still running a club or Loria having BOGO sales.

Good point on Rosario. Dozier would be a better match. Dozier will be 31 and had a slightly lower OPS+ with both having a year of control left. Either way, I don’t think Pittsburgh does the deal.

[old nurse]

 

Good point on Rosario. Dozier would be a better match. Dozier will be 31 and had a slightly lower OPS+ with both having a year of control left. Either way, I don’t think Pittsburgh does the deal.

Glasnow and Rivio would be Pittsburgs building blocks, not trade bait.  Cervelli, Marte  and McCutcheon would be the first players they would be trading to rebuild. Cole or Nova if they are blown away by an offer. They could also think their players were having down years and are going to rebound .

[jorgenswest]

It will be very difficult to turn around the pitching. They can try to trade some of their best assets for a top prospect as the Indians did with Trevor Bauer. Other than that they are going to have to develop really well and identify undervalued prospects in other organizations.

 

Next year it might be best to invest in the pen and give opportunities for some of the younger pitchers who have just arrived or will be arriving in AAA.