Kennys Vargas....yes again.

[DocBauer]

Dont blame another Vargas article on me! Well...not entirely anyway. My mind seldom shuts off, sometimes works in weird and mysterious ways that even I don't understand, (or always like), and even though this season is not yet complete, part of my brain has already contemplated the future and potential of our beloved Twins going in to next season, potential changes, etc. I know that on this point I am not alone, as we do a lot of that right here at TD. But the radio crew brought up the whole Vargas with 500 AB arguement/debate on the radio today and it got me thinking. (Dangerous I know, but they deserve partial blame).

 

Vargas has been inconsistent overall, and we all know this. But then again, a lot of players enjoy hot and cold streaks, and even this year, on this team, we have seen what rewards can come from sticking with a young player and letting him grow and develop. Vargas, unfortunately perhaps for him, was granted another option for 2017 and the Twins used it/him to make a series of different moves throughout the year to juggle the active roster.

 

As of today, Sunday, with a sweep of the Tigers, Vargas has the following numbers:

232 AB/ .263 AVG/ .323 OB%/ .461 SLG/ .784 SLG/ 33 R/ 13 2B/ 11 HR/ 41 RBI

 

Assuming he was allowed a full 500 AB at his current pace and numbers, he would produce 71 R/ 28 2B/ 24 HR/ 88 RBI

 

It could be easily argued these numbers would finish lower with more exposure and AB, and it could also be argued just as easily they might increase with more consistent AB.

 

There have been various arguments regarding the validity of Vargas as a still mostly young player requiring opportunity vs him being what he is, which OK, but not great. If the proposed numbers over 500 AB were actual, I'd say an argument for him sticking around would be pretty strong. And there have been various arguments that improving this one roster spot would go a long way toward taking a quality, mostly young and still improving lineup, and make it that much deeper and dangerous. But after the comments in the radio today, and my own reflections and curiosity, I thought it worth discussing Vargas yet again.

[ffwfed31]

I like Vargas and think he may be a useful guy for some team.  I think his #'s from the left side of the plate are fine and he has massive power.  The problem is he is out of options and if we use a 3 man bench next year where is his spot?  They will have a backup catcher, esko, adrianza or granite where does he fit?  The only way I could see him back is a full time DH if grossy leaves, plus there are so many good lefty bats on this roster.  Would hate to see him go, but I feel like writing is on the wall.

[notoriousgod71]

 

I like Vargas and think he may be a useful guy for some team.  I think his #'s from the left side of the plate are fine and he has massive power.  The problem is he is out of options and if we use a 3 man bench next year where is his spot?  They will have a backup catcher, esko, adrianza or granite where does he fit?  The only way I could see him back is a full time DH if grossy leaves, plus there are so many good lefty bats on this roster.  Would hate to see him go, but I feel like writing is on the wall.

 

An easy solution would be to get rid of the 13th pitcher that will rarely be helpful anyway.

[ffwfed31]

I agree.

[kab21]

 

I like Vargas and think he may be a useful guy for some team.  I think his #'s from the left side of the plate are fine and he has massive power.  The problem is he is out of options and if we use a 3 man bench next year where is his spot?  They will have a backup catcher, esko, adrianza or granite where does he fit?  The only way I could see him back is a full time DH if grossy leaves, plus there are so many good lefty bats on this roster.  Would hate to see him go, but I feel like writing is on the wall.

the problem only occurs when the team carries 13 pitchers or 2 utility infielders. The good news is that Adrianza and Escobar are both sort of capable of playing in the OF and fairly good at hitting.

 

But how useful is Vargas as a bench bat if Sano also plays 50-60 games at DH/1B? If that happens that often then you have increased the bench with one of Mauer/Grossman on it (or Rosario/Kepler if Grossman is in the OF).

The other factor is if Garver is the backup catcher and also getting 1B or DH reps. Vargas seems less necessary in that situation.

 

I think Vargas's future is partly dependent on the plans next year for Sano and Garver unless Grossman is traded (hesitant to do so). Or pick one of Grossman and Vargas.

[Tuba]

Vargas sticking with the team next year as a sub .800 OPS 1B/DH depends on if anyone (Palka, Park... maybe even Rooker) challenges him for his bench spot. Could also be made redundant in FA.  

[stringer bell]

He won't have options next year. He clogs the bases and is a significant downgrade defensively from the regular first baseman. He has to hit appreciatively more to stick as a DH. This year has been compounded by poor production versus LH pitching.

[Vanimal46]

I don't see a spot for him on the 25 man next year. They have others that can fill in at 1B/DH that offer more position flexibility, speed, or a better bat. 

The Twins gave Vargas ample opportunity to secure a full-time spot on the MLB roster over the last 3 years. He hasn't been able to grasp it. I would move on from him. 

[Doomtints]

 

I don't see a spot for him on the 25 man next year. They have others that can fill in at 1B/DH that offer more position flexibility, speed, or a better bat. 

The Twins gave Vargas ample opportunity to secure a full-time spot on the MLB roster over the last 3 years. He hasn't been able to grasp it. I would move on from him. 

 

That's crazy talk. He was good both this year and last year in VERY limited duty. I believe he has been their best bat this month, again in limited duty.

 

He might be around, he might not. It's difficult to know if the Twins don't like him or if the Twins think he is solid and are taking advantage of his options. We will find out by the time next season starts.

[Oldgoat_MN]

Last year he was much better against LH than RH pitching. Hard to say what this means going forward. His fielding has ranked as above average at 1B.

The pitching is so clearly the Achille's heel that I'm not terribly concerned with replacing Vargas.

He has hit better than Mike Napoli, to whom we offered a contract.

[Vanimal46]

 

That's crazy talk. He was good both this year and last year in VERY limited duty. I believe he has been their best bat this month, again in limited duty.

 

He might be around, he might not. It's difficult to know if the Twins don't like him or if the Twins think he is solid and are taking advantage of his options. We will find out by the time next season starts.

 

We'll disagree that he's been good this year and last year. Just a little too streaky for my taste. In 2016 he had a hot month of July, then fell of the proverbial cliff in September. This season he had 2 months (May and June) where he got a majority of starts to prove he belongs full-time, and didn't take advantage. 

[Doomtints]

I feel like all players are streaky. That's baseball. This is why we compile stats -- what matters is how one finishes the year which provides an overall view: including the good stretches and the bad.

[Shaitan]

Under the old regime, he'd be guaranteed a spot next year, just because he's out of options.

 

I think he sticks around. In theory they'll boost the pitching more so they don't need to carry 13 pitchers. Let Vargas and Grossman duke it out for DH, then the loser steps up when somebody inevitably gets hurt. Who is the next bat in line in the system: Granite, Garver? Pass. They're useful role players but they aren't everyday players.

 

Or maybe they'll surprise me and trade for another bat (who can hit LHP) and drop one of Grossman/Vargas.

[kab21]

 

Under the old regime, he'd be guaranteed a spot next year, just because he's out of options.

 

I think he sticks around. In theory they'll boost the pitching more so they don't need to carry 13 pitchers. Let Vargas and Grossman duke it out for DH, then the loser steps up when somebody inevitably gets hurt. Who is the next bat in line in the system: Granite, Garver? Pass. They're useful role players but they aren't everyday players.

 

Or maybe they'll surprise me and trade for another bat (who can hit LHP) and drop one of Grossman/Vargas.

I still think it is really hard to keep both Vargas and Grossman on a roster that includes Sano getting 50+ games at 1B or DH and Garver (if?) getting additional AB's at 1B or DH. I think Vargas is worthy of a spot but there are too many 1B/DH types for too few AB's.

[Mike Sixel]

I'd rather Garver, Grossman, Granite, Escobar be the bench......there is also Adrianza.....If they don't sign a legit DH (in their mind), give me guys with options and positional flexibility. I'd like a real 2-3 man bench in AAA......

[DocBauer]

I still think it is really hard to keep both Vargas and Grossman on a roster that includes Sano getting 50+ games at 1B or DH and Garver (if?) getting additional AB's at 1B or DH. I think Vargas is worthy of a spot but there are too many 1B/DH types for too few AB's.

Room for both if Grossman is again the 4th OF with Granite in AAA, at least to start the year.

[FlauerPauer]

David Ortiz 2.0? In terms of how the organization has treated him and the potential he may offer to another team?

 

I disagree with the poster previously who said that Vargas has had a fair shot at securing a full time position on the team.  This year he has had the most at-bats in a season during his career; two of his four years in the majors had less than 200 at bats.  He has been shipped back and forth to Rochester countless times; can't be easy to keep a swing "healthy" while moving back and forth.  Not too mention when he is on the team, he is given one or two starts a week.  I just don't think he's been given a fair shot at all to have a chance to claim the DH role.  

 

If I were him, I'd be pretty pissed with the situation and how I have been handled.  I guess he's still making money, but I feel his treatment has been pretty poor by the front office.  Does Grossman really add that much more value to the team than Kennys?  I wonder what they could net in a trade; obviously in a package.

 

Both strike out.  Grossman can take a walk.  Vargas has more power.  Grossman is gross in the OF and can't play 1b.  Vargas is not a terrible 1b.  Grossman is faster.  Can we combine the two?

[Vanimal46]

 

David Ortiz 2.0? In terms of how the organization has treated him and the potential he may offer to another team?

 

I disagree with the poster previously who said that Vargas has had a fair shot at securing a full time position on the team.  This year he has had the most at-bats in a season during his career; two of his four years in the majors had less than 200 at bats.  He has been shipped back and forth to Rochester countless times; can't be easy to keep a swing "healthy" while moving back and forth.  Not too mention when he is on the team, he is given one or two starts a week.  I just don't think he's been given a fair shot at all to have a chance to claim the DH role.  

 

If I were him, I'd be pretty pissed with the situation and how I have been handled.  I guess he's still making money, but I feel his treatment has been pretty poor by the front office.  Does Grossman really add that much more value to the team than Kennys?  I wonder what they could net in a trade; obviously in a package.

 

Both strike out.  Grossman can take a walk.  Vargas has more power.  Grossman is gross in the OF and can't play 1b.  Vargas is not a terrible 1b.  Grossman is faster.  Can we combine the two?

 

I would say Grossman adds a lot more value to a team than Kennys. Robbie is one of the most patient hitters in the game. 

You say both strike out, but Vargas strikes out at a MUCH higher clip than Robbie. 

Robbie - 17.1 K% 15.3 BB% in 439 PA

Vargas - 28.3 K% 7.5 BB% in 254 PA

 

At this time last year, I wanted nothing to do with Grossman. Especially after his adventures in the OF. This year he's grown on me.

 

The market showed last year that all-power and not much else players aren't valuable in FA.  

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

David Ortiz 2.0? In terms of how the organization has treated him and the potential he may offer to another team?

No. Ortiz had a 120 OPS+ the year he was released by the Twins. Ortiz had a career MiLB OPS of over .900.

 

They're not the same player, not even close to it.

[notoriousgod71]

 

No. Ortiz had a 120 OPS+ the year he was released by the Twins. Ortiz had a career MiLB OPS of over .900.

 

They're not the same player, not even close to it.

 

Paul Sorrento 2.0?

[Vanimal46]

 

Paul Sorrento 2.0?

 

Probably Chris Carter 2.0

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Paul Sorrento 2.0?

Heh, still unlikely.

 

Maybe Vargas turns into something but I think it's unlikely. He's going to end the season with around 900 career MLB plate appearances. He'll be 27 years old next year.

 

The Twins can keep him and give him a shot but his upside is too modest and the stakes too high, in my opinion. The Twins should be trying to win in 2018 and win big (90+ games). I don't see Kennys Vargas being part of 90 wins given the rest of the roster.

[yarnivek1972]

Speaking of Sorrento, trading Vargas in ST would certainly be an option. If they can get a Curtis Leskanic for him, that would be a pretty good haul. He was a solid reliever for a lot of years.

[Rosterman]

At this point, Vargas should explore playing abroad. Otherwise, he is that guy on the fringe of the roster that may doom him to more minor league seasoning.

[Vanimal46]

At this point, Vargas should explore playing abroad. Otherwise, he is that guy on the fringe of the roster that may doom him to more minor league seasoning.

I have no doubt he could be a premiere HR hitter in Korea or Japan. Who knows, maybe Vargas would have a resurgence like Eric Thames if he spends a year or 2 overseas.

[FlauerPauer]

 

No. Ortiz had a 120 OPS+ the year he was released by the Twins. Ortiz had a career MiLB OPS of over .900.

 

They're not the same player, not even close to it.

 

Vargas had an ops+ of 122 last year.  I wasn't necessarily comparing them as a player, more so how the organization has handled him.  David was actually given a shot to play.  Never will forget the home run he hit with a broken wrist.  Extremely dumb move that the organization made; maybe the worst move they've ever made.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Vargas had an ops+ of 122 last year. I wasn't necessarily comparing them as a player, more so how the organization has handled him. David was actually given a shot to play. Never will forget the home run he hit with a broken wrist. Extremely dumb move that the organization made; maybe the worst move they've ever made.

Vargas’ 122 OPS+ last season was in fewer than 180 plate appearances. Two scorching weeks and a player can post an OPS+ that high. That doesn’t mean the player is good.

 

Vargas is a middling DH in an era when a good DH can be found cheaply. If the org has confidence in him, I suppose I won’t get too upset about his retention. If they cut him, I also won’t get too upset about it.

 

But to keep him, they’d have to be confident he’s an .800 OPS player and I just don’t see that happening unless Kennys flips a switch.

[DocBauer]

I still wonder what Vargas would really do playing daily and get those 500 AB. If he produced the projected numbers I posted in the opening, I'd be pretty happy and I think most of us would be.

 

That being said, I find the Grossman situation interesting. He slumped for a while but has been picking things up again lately. He has some power, works counts, has a high OB, and doesn't run badly. What about him batting leadoff ahead of Mauer and dropping Dozier down?

 

Is that a better option than Vargas?

 

I mean, assuming they don't just upgrade the DH spot.

[Vanimal46]

I still wonder what Vargas would really do playing daily and get those 500 AB. If he produced the projected numbers I posted in the opening, I'd be pretty happy and I think most of us would be.

That being said, I find the Grossman situation interesting. He slumped for a while but has been picking things up again lately. He has some power, works counts, has a high OB, and doesn't run badly. What about him batting leadoff ahead of Mauer and dropping Dozier down?

Is that a better option than Vargas?

I mean, assuming they don't just upgrade the DH spot.

He would have to hit significantly more than the projected 24 HRs in 500 ABs... Hell, Eduardo Escobar has 20 himself in ~430 ABs. And Escobar brings much more to the table than Vargas does.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Heh, still unlikely.

 

Maybe Vargas turns into something but I think it's unlikely. He's going to end the season with around 900 career MLB plate appearances. He'll be 27 years old next year.

 

The Twins can keep him and give him a shot but his upside is too modest and the stakes too high, in my opinion. The Twins should be trying to win in 2018 and win big (90+ games). I don't see Kennys Vargas being part of 90 wins given the rest of the roster.

 

I guess where I'm at is that if they don't keep 13 pitchers, then having Vargas around as a bench bat/occasional sub is not a bad thing, at least not while he's on pre-arb salary. I don't see anyone in the high minors that could provide that kind of PH threat. Palka maybe, but he probably has more question marks at this point than Vargas. I think Rooker is the heir here, but I doubt we see Rooker in MN in 2018 except possibly in September if he destroys AA and AAA.