Kennys Vargas....yes again.

[kab21]

 

Room for both if Grossman is again the 4th OF with Granite in AAA, at least to start the year.

Of course there is room but where do you get AB's for the players mentioned and you create a lot of inflexibility by having a bunch of non-fielders on the team. For example, the nagging injury to a starter that doesn't go on the DL and becomes 3-4 days. Or a nagging injury to Sano that limits him to DH for a week. Now Grossman and Vargas are part of the bench. Or that cursed 13th pitcher because the bullpen is toast.

[DocBauer]

Of course there is room but where do you get AB's for the players mentioned and you create a lot of inflexibility by having a bunch of non-fielders on the team. For example, the nagging injury to a starter that doesn't go on the DL and becomes 3-4 days. Or a nagging injury to Sano that limits him to DH for a week. Now Grossman and Vargas are part of the bench. Or that cursed 13th pitcher because the bullpen is toast.

Well, hopefully you only have a 12 man staff.

 

That leaves Garver as the backup catcher. Escobar and Adrianza as utility. I'd like to have Granite, Grossman AND a DH/1B. But that's one too many. Barring someone on the DL. So you have to make a cut somewhere or send someone down. Hate to put Granite back at Rochester, but he does have options. Tough call.

[kab21]

 

Well, hopefully you only have a 12 man staff.

That leaves Garver as the backup catcher. Escobar and Adrianza as utility. I'd like to have Granite, Grossman AND a DH/1B. But that's one too many. Barring someone on the DL. So you have to make a cut somewhere or send someone down. Hate to put Granite back at Rochester, but he does have options. Tough call.

Yes, I know how the bench works with Vargas on the roster. Where do you find AB's for everyone at DH/1B with Sano probably playing 50 games there? Why have Vargas on the bench if he (or Grossman) barely play? Yes, Grossman can play OF but do you really want him to and do you really want to bench Rosario or Kepler to do it?

[DocBauer]

Yes, I know how the bench works with Vargas on the roster. Where do you find AB's for everyone at DH/1B with Sano probably playing 50 games there? Why have Vargas on the bench if he (or Grossman) barely play? Yes, Grossman can play OF but do you really want him to and do you really want to bench Rosario or Kepler to do it?

And that is where the really tough calls come in to play. With a 12 man staff, what gives you, daily, the best 4 man bench after allowing the backup catcher?

 

Do you go with a DH/1B type with 2 utility players and 1 OF? Grossman really isn't aweful as an occasional OF, and Adrianza has looked decent in LF. Or do you play speed and defense and eliminate the true DH player with a deep, talented and versatile club? Do you stick with just 1 utility player?

 

I still believe Kepler can and will hit LH eventually, decently, should play daily, and not sure you really need a 5th OF. But both Grossman and Granite have value. Do you rotate DH? TK did that a lot of the time with guys who could still play a position.

 

I just don't know that there is an easy answer here. I think it comes down to this: 1] is your team better with that additional bat and you lose that extra OF or utility player or 2] are you better off losing that bat and having more roster flexibility.

 

I'm just not certain which is the right choice.

 

Push cone to shove and I was FORCED to make a call, I'd say sign or keep the bat, keep Granite over Grossman, roll with the 2 utility players, and trust the rest of your lineup.

[kab21]

 

I still believe Kepler can and will hit LH eventually, decently, should play daily, and not sure you really need a 5th OF. But both Grossman and Granite have value. Do you rotate DH? TK did that a lot of the time with guys who could still play a position.
 

I agree that there is no easy choice but the Twins are already rotating the DH with Sano playing there a fair amount and Garver likely getting a few reps there. Can you really rotate one more person at DH? Is that even possible?

 

I think both Vargas and Grossman are very nice pieces to a decent team but I can't see as much of a path to keeping both of them for an entire season without roster shakeup elsewhere. I would start the season with both of them and perhaps the inevitable injury occurs or something but there are only so many DH AB's available.

[jorgenswest]

With less than 1000 PAs it is likely we haven't seen the best of Vargas. The Twins management will need to do a good job of evaluating his ceiling as they build the roster for next year. He certainly is worthy of a 40 man roster spot this winter.

[DocBauer]

I agree that there is no easy choice but the Twins are already rotating the DH with Sano playing there a fair amount and Garver likely getting a few reps there. Can you really rotate one more person at DH? Is that even possible?

 

I think both Vargas and Grossman are very nice pieces to a decent team but I can't see as much of a path to keeping both of them for an entire season without roster shakeup elsewhere. I would start the season with both of them and perhaps the inevitable injury occurs or something but there are only so many DH AB's available.

I may be wrong, but my hunch is, despite Vargas playing the "option" game, some within the organization like him, will bring him back, and concentrate on a couple pitching additions rather than a new DH/position player.

 

If Granite begins the season, there is room for both Grossman and Vargas, (assuming no addition). Everyone needs days off here and there. Even half days. You have a stud OF, but Grossman can play an OK spot here and there. Mauer needs days off. Someone has to DH daily. Utility does what utility does, but you still have about 550-600 AB for the DH spot over a full season.

[kab21]

 

I may be wrong, but my hunch is, despite Vargas playing the "option" game, some within the organization like him, will bring him back, and concentrate on a couple pitching additions rather than a new DH/position player.

If Granite begins the season, there is room for both Grossman and Vargas, (assuming no addition). Everyone needs days off here and there. Even half days. You have a stud OF, but Grossman can play an OK spot here and there. Mauer needs days off. Someone has to DH daily. Utility does what utility does, but you still have about 550-600 AB for the DH spot over a full season.

We must be missing each other on these comments. How do you split the DH between Grossman, Vargas and a likely 30-50 games of Sano (or Mauer with Sano at 1B) with a little time for Garver mixed in? We aren't talking about OF'ers getting days off here or there to get Grossman a little playing time.

[The Wise One]

Fangraphs can be sorted by DH, From this year's production Vargas may have some value for another team.  WOBA, WAR, he is around number 10 in the league for DH, about medium on  the 1B.   27 is older. There still is room for growth

 

Sorrento had a few fine years with the Indians ans the Mariners. Another 131 homers and Kennys will catch him. If only given a chance it could be 2 years, or 10

[ashbury]

I still wonder what Vargas would really do playing daily and get those 500 AB.

It's the manager's job to put players in the best situation for them to succeed. A select few players on the roster are good enough to play day-in and day-out. The rest need to be managed.

 

What I'm unclear on is to what degree Kennys's stats are padded by this kind of cherry-picking of opportunities by the manager(s). I think it's not really very much; his low numbers of PA are due to injury or being sent to the minors, rather than being inserted in the lineup when facing an easy pitcher for example.

 

So that 500 AB threshold is indeed the question, and I don't know how to answer it. If he is only one batting-coach tip away from becoming the guy you can simply insert in the lineup and forget about him, then you have to keep him. If not, and his stats reflect astute management, you let him become some other team's problem. I wish I knew. But my instinct is to bring him back another year.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I still wonder what Vargas would really do playing daily and get those 500 AB. If he produced the projected numbers I posted in the opening, I'd be pretty happy and I think most of us would be.

That being said, I find the Grossman situation interesting. He slumped for a while but has been picking things up again lately. He has some power, works counts, has a high OB, and doesn't run badly. What about him batting leadoff ahead of Mauer and dropping Dozier down?

Is that a better option than Vargas?

I mean, assuming they don't just upgrade the DH spot.

 

how could Vargas get that many with Mauer and Sano and maybe Garver on the roster? 

 

Sano and Mauer have 150 ABs at DH this year, with Sano missing several weeks. Vargas would have to take every other DH AB to reach 500ish ABs. Or, get nearly all the time Mauer has off at 1B. 

 

That's somewhat more likely than I thought before looking at the numbers.....but still seems like a very tight roster to me w/o sufficient flexibility in positions or options (to bet on Vargas, vs a "proven vet").

[kab21]

 

how could Vargas get that many with Mauer and Sano and maybe Garver on the roster? 

 

Sano and Mauer have 150 ABs at DH this year, with Sano missing several weeks. Vargas would have to take every other DH AB to reach 500ish ABs. Or, get nearly all the time Mauer has off at 1B. 

 

That's somewhat more likely than I thought before looking at the numbers.....but still seems like a very tight roster to me w/o sufficient flexibility in positions or options (to bet on Vargas, vs a "proven vet").

 

This is what I have been trying to get at with the roster issue of having both Grossman and Vargas. Even if you ignore Mauer at DH (let's say that Vargas plays every game that Mauer DH's) then Vargas and Grossman only play 60 games each at DH with Sano playing 30, Garver playing 10 and Granite 2 (just because...). There just isn't enough playing time until an injury occurs. I am fine starting the season out with both but after a month or two it is going to create some playing time issues.

I don't think the Twins can add a full time DH to the roster since Sano and Mauer both need time there. Use Grossman or Vargas in a part time role and use the money elsewhere (pitching, pitching and pitching imo).

 

[stringer bell]

There aren't a lot of reinforcements in the minors. The Twins have only used 17 position players this year, including Niko Goodrum and Danny Santana. I don't see anyone in their system who has a good shot to take a roster spot. Subtract Gimenez and we're at 14 position players. Vargas and Adrianza wouldn't have options to be shipped out, leaving Granite as the guy to move up and down when a player is injured.

 

My opinion is that Vargas gets another big league shot with the Twins, but could get the DFA if someone forces their way on the roster next year at some point. It's unlikely that the Twins will have the good health of their position players that they have had this year.

[DocBauer]

I agree that I think Granite is the odd man out, at least initially. It may not be fair, but it's the reality of manipulating your roster and options. Especially when your roster has 3 awfully good and versatile OF, plus a couple really nice utility guys.

 

I can't say exactly how many AB each guy gets where, and nobody can predict injuries, but Vargas and Grossman will still play in the field here and there when guys get days off, as well as spend time at DH. Depth is a good thing!

 

While adding a bat could easily be justified, I just think the concentration should be on pitching additions and pretty much roll with the same position players next year.

[Twodogs]

 

Dont blame another Vargas article on me! Well...not entirely anyway. My mind seldom shuts off, sometimes works in weird and mysterious ways that even I don't understand, (or always like), and even though this season is not yet complete, part of my brain has already contemplated the future and potential of our beloved Twins going in to next season, potential changes, etc. I know that on this point I am not alone, as we do a lot of that right here at TD. But the radio crew brought up the whole Vargas with 500 AB arguement/debate on the radio today and it got me thinking. (Dangerous I know, but they deserve partial blame).

Vargas has been inconsistent overall, and we all know this. But then again, a lot of players enjoy hot and cold streaks, and even this year, on this team, we have seen what rewards can come from sticking with a young player and letting him grow and develop. Vargas, unfortunately perhaps for him, was granted another option for 2017 and the Twins used it/him to make a series of different moves throughout the year to juggle the active roster.

As of today, Sunday, with a sweep of the Tigers, Vargas has the following numbers:
232 AB/ .263 AVG/ .323 OB%/ .461 SLG/ .784 SLG/ 33 R/ 13 2B/ 11 HR/ 41 RBI

Assuming he was allowed a full 500 AB at his current pace and numbers, he would produce 71 R/ 28 2B/ 24 HR/ 88 RBI

It could be easily argued these numbers would finish lower with more exposure and AB, and it could also be argued just as easily they might increase with more consistent AB.

There have been various arguments regarding the validity of Vargas as a still mostly young player requiring opportunity vs him being what he is, which OK, but not great. If the proposed numbers over 500 AB were actual, I'd say an argument for him sticking around would be pretty strong. And there have been various arguments that improving this one roster spot would go a long way toward taking a quality, mostly young and still improving lineup, and make it that much deeper and dangerous. But after the comments in the radio today, and my own reflections and curiosity, I thought it worth discussing Vargas yet again.

 

 

The thing is, is what is Grossman, is he mostly young and ok but not great??  That is who Vargas is going to fight for PT