Sherman: Mauer's HOF case similar to Mattingly's

[Seth Stohs]

Joel Sherman writes for the NY Post. HE's generally very good, from what I have read in the past. I think he writes a really good, fair article pointing out the similar Hall of Fame Cases for Joe Mauer and Don Mattingly. 

 

Both had very good, extended period in which they won batting titles. Each has an MVP. 

Both had a major injury that created or caused a decline that saw their numbers fall to still very good career numbers.

 

Mattingly topped out at 28.5% of the HOF vote in his first of 15 years on the ballot. 

 

It's really a good comparison, though I do believe that Mauer's 8-9 years as a catcher and doing the things he did while at the position that hadn't been done in years. 

 

Take a look at the article link below and share your thoughts. I know it's a topic that comes up from time to time, particularly in the offseason but I'm writing about it because is from a national/NY writer. 

 

http://nypost.com/2017/09/18/weve-seen-joe-mauers-hall-of-fame-case-before/

 

 

[jimmer]

Yeah, I'm sorry, Mauer has a better case.  Only AL catcher to have a batting title and he did it not once, not twice, but three times.  Mattingly never lead the league in BA/OBP/SLG% in the same year either.

[DaveW]

Mattingly was one of the best 5 catchers of all time?

[DaveW]

Also Mauer has better sideburns!

[Brock Beauchamp]

Mattingly was a very good player who played the least important defensive position on the field, though he played it well.

 

Mauer, on the other hand, posted similar numbers while doing it at the most important defensive position on the field.

 

Similar, maybe, but not identical. And the nod has to go to Mauer for doing what he did as a catcher, not a first baseman.

[Thrylos]

That's an excellent comparison, but I think that catchers have a bit of an easier time getting there than first basemen.   I think that this comparison is also relevant:

 

Roy Campanella (10 seasons) 1161 H, 38.2 fWAR, 123 wRC+
Joe Mauer (14 seasons - 10 as a C)  1974 H, 48 fWAR, 124wRC+

 

So Mauer who will get 2000 hits (more than 9 HOF catchers and might actually catch up to Johnny Bench (2048 hits) and Gary Carter (2092) and will be only behind Berra, Fisk and Pudge) and caught as many seasons as Campanella with better results, should have a better case than Mattingly.  Just because of the catching bit.

 

On the other hand you have Joe Torre (who caught only 10 seasons before turned to 1B) with 2342 H, 62.3 fWAR, and 129 wRC+ not in the HOF (as a player)

 

Hard to tell on this one

[Mike Sixel]

I always thought mattingly and hrbek were a good comparison.... But not one of the best hitting catchers ever. No.

[nowheresville]

 

Also Mauer has better sideburns!

 

 

Disagree.

 

 

 

[gunnarthor]

Yeah, I think Mauer's probably going to get in - his three batting titles will sway older voters while younger voters will like his JAWS score.

 

I do think it's fair to argue whether he's deserving but Torre, Simmons and even Posada will probably be sitting out. I think he's better than all of them but they each have a case.

[Bill Brown69]

No concussion this isn't even a topic. Put Mauer at 1B at 24 years old this isn't a topic. Last yer I really don't think Mauer had much of a case, but now I think he has at least a chance. A gold glove at 1B or another batting title or a WS ring and I think he is almost a lock but 1 more year of .290ish  with few homers and I guess he tops out T 52% of the voters. 

 

It is a shame because he was the best pure hitter since George Brett, with all due respect to Tony Gwynn.

[jctwins]

The Mauer HOF speech is going to be very moving for sure.

 

 

[USAFChief]

Mattingly's not getting in the HOF.

 

 Mauer?  TBD.  As of today...doubtful.

 

 

[Mike Sixel]

I certainly agree Mattingly shouldn't. 

[Doomtints]

Mattingly's WAA is 17.4. That's a good player, but not a HOF player. He is in the Kent Hrbek range.

 

Mauer's WAA is 26.6.  Mauer is in HOF territory, but being on the lower edge there is no guarantee he will get enough votes based on his production. Puckett was boosted by his golden boy personality and likely Mauer gets a similar, albeit smaller, boost.  Puckett's WAA was 25.5.

 

Of course, Mauer likely finishes his career over 28 WAA, perhaps well over if he plays longer than the end of his current contract.  At the end of his career, unless he declines to being a below average player, the answer to this question should be a slam dunk.

[Doubles]

*If* Mauer would've eked out two or three more seasons catching...

 

and *If* the conkies would've been a non-issue...

 

Mauer makes the Hall for sure, and goes down as one of, if not the, all-time greatest hitters among catchers.

 

If there is any justice in baseball, Mauer will become the third player in baseball history to win a Gold Glove at two positions (Darin Erstad, Placido Polanco).  Rare air.

 

 

[old nurse]

I doubt that Mauer will get in without a couple of seasons with some hardware given out at the end of the year. If he is not winning popularity contests now, he will not later.

[Dantes929]

Mattingly has one batting title.  Mauer has 3.   That is quite a difference.   Mauer before Oliva.  Oliva before Mattingly.

[yarnivek1972]

Mattingly's WAA is 17.4. That's a good player, but not a HOF player. He is in the Kent Hrbek range.

 

Mauer's WAA is 26.6. Mauer is in HOF territory, but being on the lower edge there is no guarantee he will get enough votes based on his production. Puckett was boosted by his golden boy personality and likely Mauer gets a similar, albeit smaller, boost. Puckett's WAA was 25.5.

 

Of course, Mauer likely finishes his career over 28 WAA, perhaps well over if he plays longer than the end of his current contract. At the end of his career, unless he declines to being a below average player, the answer to this question should be a slam dunk.

Puckett was also boosted by being the best player on two World Series winners. For the guys on the fence, that has a tendency to sway voters. That's why Mattingly is not in IMO. His career coincided with one of the longest title droughts in Yankee history. Or perhaps voters decided it wasn't a coincidence at all.

[DaveW]

Puckett wasn't the best player on either of those two teams.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Puckett wasn't the best player on either of those two teams.

"Perceived to be" would have been the better phrasing. (He did narrowly lead our position players in bWAR in 1987.)

 

Technically I suppose he led the combined 1987 and 1991 teams in total Twins bWAR too.

[KGB]

It's good to see some out of town opinion on Mauer's chances at the HOF and a HOF voter. By the end of his career, it's a very good chance that he'll have played more games at a position other than catcher and having caught less than 1/2 games of other HOF catchers.

 

He'll get more votes than Mattingly, Oliva got up to around 50%. But getting to 75% of the votes, I think is very unlikely.

[yarnivek1972]

Puckett wasn't the best player on either of those two teams.

Yes, he was.

 

Sure, technically Shane Mack put up a higher WAR in 1991. But anyone who is old enough to remember 1991 remembers that Mack started the season so poorly that he was benched. The plan going into 1991 was to have Mack play CF with Puckett playing RF. But when he needed to be benched and largely platooned through the first couple months, he was taken out of CF and Puck returned.

 

And let's not forget what Puckett did in the postseason. Yes, it matters. .897 career playoff OPS.

[ericchri]

Mauer's HOF chances are greatly dependent now on how much longer he decides to play and at what level (like everyone else, I suppose).  If he plays another 4-5 years with offensive numbers similar to this year (as I write this he's got a .306/.384/.423/.804 line for a 116 OPS+ which are close to his career averages, and he'll probably finish with around 160-165 hits), and also picks up a couple Gold Gloves, he's probably going to have a pretty good chance.  If he hangs it up after his contract runs out after next year, I don't like his chances.

 

Either way, he's probably got a better case than Mattingly due to virtue of how good he was when he played catcher.  It'll be interesting to see how the voting goes when he is finally eligible.

[Doomtints]

In the absence of data, if you asked me if Mauer were a HOF candidate I would say no. I might even toss the Mattingly comp out there too. I would talk about the injury, how he only caught for 9+ years, etc. etc. We all know the narratives against, and I would certainly throw them out there too as they seem reasonable.

 

However, when you look at the numbers, he has a good case for the HOF. This is just Joe -- he puts up great numbers but never garners much attention. Mauer's HOF votes will be a good indicator of how many HOF voters go by their gut reactions/opinions and how many vote by metrics. I think we know which side Sherman is on.

 

This is another example of coming to your own conclusions about players and not going with the herd opinion. Mauer would have to play crappy baseball for ten years to be a true Mattingly comp when it comes to WAA.  Ten years!

[Mike Sixel]

 

In the absence of data, if you asked me if Mauer were a HOF candidate I would say no. I might even toss the Mattingly comp out there too. I would talk about the injury, how he only caught for 9+ years, etc. etc. We all know the narratives against, and I would certainly throw them out there too as they seem reasonable.

 

However, when you look at the numbers, he has a good case for the HOF. This is just Joe -- he puts up great numbers but never garners much attention. Mauer's HOF votes will be a good indicator of how many HOF voters go by their gut reactions/opinions and how many vote by metrics. I think we know which side Sherman is on.

 

This is another example of coming to your own conclusions about players and not going with the herd opinion. Mauer would have to play crappy baseball for ten years to be a true Mattingly comp when it comes to WAA.  Ten years!

 

never garners attention?

 

He was an SI cover boy at one point, maybe more than one. He had national tv spots. I think you are forgetting how much he was all over MLB while he was a catcher.

[Doomtints]

 

never garners attention?

 

He was an SI cover boy at one point, maybe more than one. He had national tv spots. I think you are forgetting how much he was all over MLB while he was a catcher.

 

I did not live in MN when he was a catcher. I buy into it that Mauer and Morneau were both in the local's faces nonstop, but there was also a lot of grumbling in that era about the East Coast teams getting all the national attention, at least for the AL.

[gunnarthor]

 

I did not live in MN when he was a catcher. I buy into it that Mauer and Morneau were both in the local's faces nonstop, but there was also a lot of grumbling in that era about the East Coast teams getting all the national attention, at least for the AL.

I lived in NY area until 2009. Mauer was everywhere.  He was on the cover of MLB the Show two years in a row. 

 

SI, ESPN, Posnanski, Fangraphs etc covered him constantly. He was in the conversation with Pujols as best player in the game for a while. He might not have been in as many commercials as others and Yankees/Red Sox dominated ESPN but Mauer was certainly one of the most covered players of that time.

 

 

[Doomtints]

 

I lived in NY area until 2009. Mauer was everywhere.  He was on the cover of MLB the Show two years in a row. 

 

SI, ESPN, Posnanski, Fangraphs etc covered him constantly. He was in the conversation with Pujols as best player in the game for a while. He might not have been in as many commercials as others and Yankees/Red Sox dominated ESPN but Mauer was certainly one of the most covered players of that time.

 

Again, that's probably your fan bias. I saw a lot of Pujols in the media, I didn't see much Mauer.

 

Sure he was on magazine covers, video game covers and the like, but in my opinion that's not particularly meaningful. As for being covered on ESPN, every player gets covered on ESPN. The network creates game highlights all day long.  

 

Mauer was heavily covered in the year that he flirted with the record batting average, but he wasn't the most covered player. There was also the M&M boys narrative when Morneau blossomed. What else?

[gunnarthor]

 

Again, that's probably your fan bias. I saw a lot of Pujols in the media, I didn't see much Mauer.

 

Sure he was on magazine covers, video game covers and the like, but in my opinion that's not particularly meaningful. As for being covered on ESPN, every player gets covered on ESPN. The network creates game highlights all day long.  

 

Mauer was heavily covered in the year that he flirted with the record batting average, but he wasn't the most covered player. There was also the M&M boys narrative when Morneau blossomed. What else?

Besides the covers, the all-star games, the video games, the constant praise from national media? The MVP vote totals? ESPN commercials? I'm not sure what else you want. I think it's impossible to say Mauer wasn't covered well in the period. He was pretty universally seen as the top catcher and arguably the best player in baseball. Statheads loved him. Would he have gotten more coverage if he was playing in Boston? Sure. But that doesn't mean he wasn't covered. He was huge.

[Mr. Brooks]

Yeah, aside from the national commercials, back to back video game covers, magazine covers, and constant television coverage, nobody really knew who he was!