Stick a fork in the 2017 Twins

[LaBombo]

 

I remember Mike and Mike saying stick a fork in the 2006 Twins when they were 12.5 out in May.   Again when they were 10.5 out in August.    Give up on them if you want.    They are just a modest good streak from being right back in it.

 

The 2006 Twins were a much better team than the 2017 Twins are.  They were 61-44 and 5th in the AL on August 1st, and had outscored their opponents by nearly 60 runs.

 

They also benefited from the total implosion of the Tigers, who led the Central with a 71-35 record on aug.1st, but went an abysmal 24-32 the rest of the way.

[Dantes929]

 

and to be fair, in 2006, we had won 3 of the previous 4 division titles and proven playoff caliber talent was still there. This team is nothing like the 2006 team that was 10.5 back in August but also had a record of 65-46. If this team was 65-46, doubt anyone would have much negative to say about it.

Right now, we have to hope this team is like the 2001 team.

Oh, and Mike and Mike arent exactly baseball experts. Even less so 11 years ago

Of course all you say is true.   We are also not back 10.5     I am by no means saying our position is good but this team has shown resiliency and 10 games from now can make a huge difference.    Maybe we will be back even farther but this team has shown resiliency and if you can stick around .500 any kind of hot streak at the end can put you in contention.     I like the underdog and while the payoff is more rare it is also sweeter.     Way too early to stick fork in them.     A 4 game losing streak can be negated by a 5 game winning streak.   Its up to the players.

[Major League Ready]

 

according to KLAW, this current trading season has been a buyer's market according to the execs he's talked to, so I'm not sure buying now is really over paying relative to the off season.

 

I was responding to "they almost won" comments, when I talked about moral victories.

 

there were decent RP available, certainly better options than Breslow. Some of them signed 1 year deals. There is almost no bad 1 year deal.

 

as for the rest, I've pretty much typed the same things at this point. But, the FO does not appear all that in love with Garver or the AA pitchers.

 

It seemed like the cubs payed plenty for Quintana but I guess there are a lot more quality players available this year as opposed to last year, especially SP.  Regardless this team is simply should not be positioned as buyers with the number of holes this team has and the number of assets that are still getting established at the MLB level as well as Gordon, Gonsalves, Romero, Chagois, Burdi, Hildenberger, Reed, Curtiss, and a few others getting close.

[Brandon Warne]

 

what have they done to fix the pitching, exactly? I'm genuinely curious.

 

Picked up two solid defensive catchers, tried virtually every pitcher in the system with time to get to a few more, and have turned Triple-A into a level where they have arms like Turley instead of guys like Andrew Albers. The churn of arms to see who can help has been impressive. Have the overall results been great? Maybe not, but they have a handful of relievers in the upper levels who are worth a look, and some of the org arms -- Turley, Rucinski, etc. -- are at least worth a look. 

[gman]

I have been a proponent of sell all year. If you asked me last winter or any month since, I would have said sell. That doesn't mean I am disappointed in this year. We have won more than expected and still have 60 games to grow on.

Last winter we needed 11 pieces for a 13 man pitching staff. Did people really think we were going to sign or trade for that many above average pitchers? Right now we need to find 7 or 8 pieces for a 13 man staff in 2018. So far I count Berios, Mejia, Rogers, Hildenberger and Busenitz as solid pieces for 2018 and beyond. Might be wrong some could fail. Hopefully we find 5 more in house to add to this group in 2018. Do I expect this many young pitchers to carry us to a playoff in 2018? No. I expect 2018 to be another  development year. It's too bad our top relief prospects all seem to have gotten injured this year, but another group not much talked about before seems to have shown up. Maybe we will add more in house if we have a better year health wise. Maybe we add pieces by trading Santana and Kinzler. Either way they won't be here long term.

 

Besides pitching, our middle infield and first base situation needs to be solved. I expect Mauer to retire at the end of 2018 and we need to plan on his replacement.  A trade of Dozier may be a 1 step back for 2 steps forward move. If we can add a pitching piece for late 2018 or early 2019 by trading him great. He won't be here in 2019 anyway. 

 

I don't expect this team to really click pitching and hitting wise until the second half of 2019. Both groups will need more development time. By then we should have another  wave of prospects getting ready to make their presence felt and might add upgrades and more trade possibilities. To go from a 103 loss team to serious playoff contender in 3 years is a good achievement.

 

(It is interesting to note that most of the players counted on to make this happen were acquired by Ryan.)

 

 

[Twodogs]

The pitching across the board is still a disaster. Other than Berrios and Santana, who can we exactly count on in the rotation moving fwd?

Bullpen: we have zero shut down guys, a decent closer and a couple decent arms. Long ways to go.

Depth in the minors at SP isn't promising either imo.

Bats and defense are fine and encouraging. Unfortunately pitching is prob the best important part of the game.

So yes, they are better than last year (which was the worst year in their history) but still, can't be ok with such terrible pitching.

So why does everyone want to trade Santana?? If the depth in the minors isn't promising why would we reduce the two ok starters down to one?

[DaveW]

So why does everyone want to trade Santana?? If the depth in the minors isn't promising why would we reduce the two ok starters down to one?

Bc he is only around for one more year and is on the downward plane of his career most likely. He can be used to trade for multiple pitching prospects ideally.

[jimmer]

 

Of course all you say is true.   We are also not back 10.5     I am by no means saying our position is good but this team has shown resiliency and 10 games from now can make a huge difference.    Maybe we will be back even farther but this team has shown resiliency and if you can stick around .500 any kind of hot streak at the end can put you in contention.     I like the underdog and while the payoff is more rare it is also sweeter.     Way too early to stick fork in them.     A 4 game losing streak can be negated by a 5 game winning streak.   Its up to the players.

All I was saying was that although they were farther back than they are now, they were a legitimately very good team at 65-46.  That's a hair under a 60% winning %.So, IMO, it makes sense that many fans would have still believed in their chances more than they do in this teams chances even though they were farther back than this team is now.

 

Having said that, man I hope you're right and that propels them to make the playoffs.

[mickeymental]

maybe it's time to stick a fork in unrealistic expectations?

[Dr. Evil]

Bc he is only around for one more year and is on the downward plane of his career most likely. He can be used to trade for multiple pitching prospects ideally.

Santana has been and will be part of the upward momentum. He is calm, poised and our best starting pitcher. He has some good years left in that arm and maybe even a year or two additional ones as a mid level rotation guy. Flip him for a couple kids? No thanks.

[Mr. Brooks]

Santana has been and will be part of the upward momentum. He is calm, poised and our best starting pitcher. He has some good years left in that arm and maybe even a year or two additional ones as a mid level rotation guy. Flip him for a couple kids? No thanks.

Isn't he a mid level rotation guy now?

He's got a 4.95 FIP for the season.

[Dr. Evil]

This "stick a fork in them" post would be more interesting during the end of the Ryan years. The timing alone sucks out any validity of the notion that this front office has somehow already failed and frankly reeks of trolling.

[Dr. Evil]

Isn't he a mid level rotation guy now?

He's got a 4.95 FIP for the season.

Not on the team he currently plays for.

[Mr. Brooks]

Not on the team he currently plays for.

Sure, but you said he's part of the upward momentum - implying the team continues to improve.

In a championship caliber rotation he's a middle of the rotation arm at best right now, correct?

[Dr. Evil]

Sure, but you said he's part of the upward momentum - implying the team continues to improve.

In a championship caliber rotation he's a middle of the rotation arm at best right now, correct?

Yes.

[DaveW]

This "stick a fork in them" post would be more interesting during the end of the Ryan years. The timing alone sucks out any validity of the notion that this front office has somehow already failed and frankly reeks of trolling.

Has the front office improved the 2017 team or 2018-2022 teams in any meaningful way this year beyond signing Castro? (Who is a below average overall catcher anyways)

[old nurse]

It would appear that there are people who cannot read a schedule. The fate of the season is well within the players control.  People  all too happy to post STICK A FORK in something.  Losing streaks, winning streaks. The FO can figure out the possibilities. 29 games to play with  teams in the bottom 4 of their leagues.  Four games against a now slumping Brewer team.   That is more than enough games to make up ground so the 6 games remaining against Cleveland and 8 with KC meaningful when they happen. Unless the offer is too good to pass up I would doubt you would see selling until the waiver deadline.

[old nurse]

 

Has the front office improved the 2017 team or 2018-2022 teams in any meaningful way this year beyond signing Castro? (Who is a below average overall catcher anyways)

Instant gratification in baseball is rarely achieved.

[TwinsCD]

Thankfully, no one in the front office is on this board.  Because if they were, the Twins would be in a constant and perpetual rebuild (see, Pirates 1993-2013).  If you trade every high-priced veteran as some have proposed, who is the leadership to make these hopeful runs in 2019 or beyond?  Do we expect the youngsters Buxton, Sano, Polanco, et al to carry this franchise without some sort of veteran support?  I'd like to think they would too and be like the current Astros.  But I don't buy it, at least not right now.  You have to be strong up the middle and Dozier at $9M next year is a pretty good bargain given today's market and his production.  Santana is still locked up thru next year with a club option for '19.  Shouldn't he be the cornerstone of a young pitching staff?  Or do we think Falvey and Co. can sign a better option thru FA?  The Twins don't exactly have the greatest track record of attracting FAs the last few years.  Granted, no one can forecast what kind of pitcher Santana will be a year from now but can you forecast how good the players they get in return will be in 2019 (because you know they will likely be AA level at best).  

 

That's not to say Falvey shouldn't listen to offers, which I'm sure are out there.  If someone wants Gibson, I'd let him go.  Despite that 7-inning performance in his last outing, I think he's better suited in a bullpen role.  In fact, I think if he had been in the pen instead of Rochester, they win that game last nite.  Despite what the stat geeks have been trumpeting about the Twins improved defense with Castro behind the plate, he has showed me nothing with the bat in his hand other than a propensity for window shopping at the worst times.  A contender could use a veteran catcher down the stretch and we take a chance with Gimenez and Murphy  (he's gone?  wow, glad Ryan got rid of Hicks for that) whoever is at AAA.  Otherwise, I don't think holding on to Santana and Dozier is a bad idea.  This season could best be described as the Twins transition year...getting them from the crap that was last year to a contender next year with a good taste of some of that contention for over half the season this year.  Bullpen will obviously have to be the big item on the offseason shopping list to make these guys serious contenders.  

[DaveW]

Instant gratification in baseball is rarely achieved.

What have they done in any meaningful way to improve any of the teams that will take the field over the next 4 years?

 

26 years and counting since they sniffed a World Series berth, the org is still 80% the old regime, and we still have the same terrible president of the team (DSP) and the same terrible ownership family (Pohlads)

[Tomj14]

 

After those seasons, correct. That's 5 more seasons after this one for Kepler, and 4 more for each of the others listed.

Thanks

[Major League Ready]

 

Thankfully, no one in the front office is on this board.  Because if they were, the Twins would be in a constant and perpetual rebuild (see, Pirates 1993-2013).  If you trade every high-priced veteran as some have proposed, who is the leadership to make these hopeful runs in 2019 or beyond?  Do we expect the youngsters Buxton, Sano, Polanco, et al to carry this franchise without some sort of veteran support?  I'd like to think they would too and be like the current Astros.  But I don't buy it, at least not right now.  You have to be strong up the middle and Dozier at $9M next year is a pretty good bargain given today's market and his production.  Santana is still locked up thru next year with a club option for '19.  Shouldn't he be the cornerstone of a young pitching staff?  Or do we think Falvey and Co. can sign a better option thru FA?  The Twins don't exactly have the greatest track record of attracting FAs the last few years.  Granted, no one can forecast what kind of pitcher Santana will be a year from now but can you forecast how good the players they get in return will be in 2019 (because you know they will likely be AA level at best).  

 

That's not to say Falvey shouldn't listen to offers, which I'm sure are out there.  If someone wants Gibson, I'd let him go.  Despite that 7-inning performance in his last outing, I think he's better suited in a bullpen role.  In fact, I think if he had been in the pen instead of Rochester, they win that game last nite.  Despite what the stat geeks have been trumpeting about the Twins improved defense with Castro behind the plate, he has showed me nothing with the bat in his hand other than a propensity for window shopping at the worst times.  A contender could use a veteran catcher down the stretch and we take a chance with Gimenez and Murphy  (he's gone?  wow, glad Ryan got rid of Hicks for that) whoever is at AAA.  Otherwise, I don't think holding on to Santana and Dozier is a bad idea.  This season could best be described as the Twins transition year...getting them from the crap that was last year to a contender next year with a good taste of some of that contention for over half the season this year.  Bullpen will obviously have to be the big item on the offseason shopping list to make these guys serious contenders.  

 

You need to take a look at how the vast majority of contenders were built, especially the teams outside the top 10 in revenue.  Oakland has by far the best record in the past 30 years and they traded more good and great players than any other team.  Tampa has managed to stay competitive in the East with a similar approach to Oakland.  Kansas City accumulated alot of draft picks by being bad for a very long time but one could argue the trade that got them Cain and Escobar was crucial to their success. 

 

Houston did a brilliant job.  They sold off every veteran they had.  Their payroll was something like $30M and they were the most profitable team in all of baseball when they were at the bottom.  The cubs sold off significant veterans right before their run.  Part of which netted Russel.

 

If we keep Santana, we will likely to remain a decent team but certainly not a contender until all of the pieces needed to improve our pitching staff are in place as mentioned earlier in this thread.  Santana will be gone by then.  So, the question is .... Do we want to remain in the race in 2018-19 with little chance of being a serious contender or do we want to add a couple pieces that have the potential to help us become true contenders.

 

One "Santana type" FA in 2018 or 2019 plus all of the prospects we have now plus adding a couple by selling should lead to a strong contender for an extended period of time.  I would much rather be patient for a year or two and develop a team that can contend for a decade than to trade off any significant assets in order to be a fringe contender at best for the next couple years.

[Mike Sixel]

 

It would appear that there are people who cannot read a schedule. The fate of the season is well within the players control.  People  all too happy to post STICK A FORK in something.  Losing streaks, winning streaks. The FO can figure out the possibilities. 29 games to play with  teams in the bottom 4 of their leagues.  Four games against a now slumping Brewer team.   That is more than enough games to make up ground so the 6 games remaining against Cleveland and 8 with KC meaningful when they happen. Unless the offer is too good to pass up I would doubt you would see selling until the waiver deadline.

 

just curious, what are the odds they win 60-70% of their games the rest of the way? Because that's what they need to do to get to 86-87 wins.

[Doomtints]

 

Thankfully, no one in the front office is on this board.  Because if they were, the Twins would be in a constant and perpetual rebuild (see, Pirates 1993-2013). 

 

Sure, but don't forget there are dozens of active people here and everyone has their own opinion. You can bet that among front office employees there are an equal number of similar opinions. What matters is the person making the final decision.

 

If the opinions here were all coming from one person, yeah, it would be messed up. 

[Mike Sixel]

 

Instant gratification in baseball is rarely achieved.

 

No one asked for instant gratification. Dave and I are wondering what they've done for the long term health of the pitching. Gimenez isn't helping with the long term, maybe Castro, but he has at most 2 more years of starting. They added which long term assets as pitchers that will help in the next 2 years or so? 

[laloesch]

 

Yeah I'd be dealing The following for sure:
Santana
Dozier
Garcia
Kintzler
Castro
Grossman
Santiago

Also would look into dealing Rosario and Polanco as well.

 

Meh....Hang onto Rosario for now, at least he can hit.  I want to see Buxton hitting major league pitching with a respectable BA and OBP before pulling the trigger and dealing Rosario.  He is arguably the second best hitter behind Sano alongside Mauer.    

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

No one asked for instant gratification. Dave and I are wondering what they've done for the long term health of the pitching. Gimenez isn't helping with the long term, maybe Castro, but he has at most 2 more years of starting. They added which long term assets as pitchers that will help in the next 2 years or so? 

I'm wondering what you expected them to do. I think we can all agree that they didn't do what they could to shore up the bullpen in the offseason. But they *did* try to move their only truly valuable (and tradable) asset for starting pitching. There was virtually no help on the free agent market for starters, we all know that.

 

As for what they have done for the long term health of the pitching staff, they pulled off what appears to be a successful draft, largely based on the pitchers they nabbed down the board.

[laloesch]

 

Thankfully, no one in the front office is on this board.  Because if they were, the Twins would be in a constant and perpetual rebuild (see, Pirates 1993-2013).  If you trade every high-priced veteran as some have proposed, who is the leadership to make these hopeful runs in 2019 or beyond?  Do we expect the youngsters Buxton, Sano, Polanco, et al to carry this franchise without some sort of veteran support?  I'd like to think they would too and be like the current Astros.  But I don't buy it, at least not right now.  You have to be strong up the middle and Dozier at $9M next year is a pretty good bargain given today's market and his production.  Santana is still locked up thru next year with a club option for '19.  Shouldn't he be the cornerstone of a young pitching staff?  Or do we think Falvey and Co. can sign a better option thru FA?  The Twins don't exactly have the greatest track record of attracting FAs the last few years.  Granted, no one can forecast what kind of pitcher Santana will be a year from now but can you forecast how good the players they get in return will be in 2019 (because you know they will likely be AA level at best).  

 

That's not to say Falvey shouldn't listen to offers, which I'm sure are out there.  If someone wants Gibson, I'd let him go.  Despite that 7-inning performance in his last outing, I think he's better suited in a bullpen role.  In fact, I think if he had been in the pen instead of Rochester, they win that game last nite.  Despite what the stat geeks have been trumpeting about the Twins improved defense with Castro behind the plate, he has showed me nothing with the bat in his hand other than a propensity for window shopping at the worst times.  A contender could use a veteran catcher down the stretch and we take a chance with Gimenez and Murphy  (he's gone?  wow, glad Ryan got rid of Hicks for that) whoever is at AAA.  Otherwise, I don't think holding on to Santana and Dozier is a bad idea.  This season could best be described as the Twins transition year...getting them from the crap that was last year to a contender next year with a good taste of some of that contention for over half the season this year.  Bullpen will obviously have to be the big item on the offseason shopping list to make these guys serious contenders.  

 

Yes, but Santana is also 33/34.  He will BE LONG GONE when the current core hits their prime.  Will he be so indispensable then?  

 

Gimenez is a nice guy but not a critical piece of the future and certainly nothing more than a backup at best.  Garver should be up right now, the guy has all the tools and CAN ACTUALLY HIT!.  

 

Dozier's current season is a mirror opposite of last year which is typical of his career.  Low BA, pull hitter, that has some pop to the bat.  He's also not a critical piece of this rebuild given his wild up and down swings.  The Twins can do better and with Gordon on the way he's expendable.  Deal him.  

 

I agree with you on the bullpen, should be the biggest offseason shopping list item besides starting pitching, but why not call up Jake Reed in the meantime?  

 

It's like I said in my earlier post, the Twins are pretending again instead of committing 100% to the rebuild.  This was same pattern under Ryan and makes sense considering 85-90% of the FO person-ell is the same.  They develop some young players but don't trade away the veteran assets that can bring back other prospects to help hasten the rebuild, thereby they never get there completely.  That's why Houston is so much further ahead than the Twins are in their rebuild, that and drafting better too.

 

I prefer they embrace the rebuild, deal the short term assets with value and not get caught up in this pretending were competitive when were really not against better competition. 

[Mike Sixel]

 

I'm wondering what you expected them to do. I think we can all agree that they didn't do what they could to shore up the bullpen in the offseason. But they *did* try to move their only truly valuable (and tradable) asset for starting pitching. There was virtually no help on the free agent market for starters, we all know that.

 

It's their job to improve the team. They didn't. No one on this board asked or instant gratification, we asked for progress. What progress has been made? The draft doesn't count, imo, as every team gets to draft players every year.....so, what have they done?

 

Because, lots of people here are saying they've done stuff to make the pitching better long term, and I don't see it. I'm asking those people, what have they done to make the pitching staff better long term.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

It's their job to improve the team. They didn't. No one on this board asked or instant gratification, we asked for progress. What progress has been made? The draft doesn't count, imo, as every team gets to draft players every year.....so, what have they done?

 

Because, lots of people here are saying they've done stuff to make the pitching better long term, and I don't see it. I'm asking those people, what have they done to make the pitching staff better long term.

They haven't done much... yet. But even at this point in late July, we're still basically grading them on their last offseason. With their recent bullpen implosions, do we even *want* them to pursue someone like Gray? I don't think I do. Given the recent play, I'm eyeing the offseason now (excepting players who may be sold, not "win for 2017" acquisitions).

 

And I will be immensely disappointed if this coming offseason is as quiet as the last.