Can selling now improve 2018?

[gunnarthor]

 

We have waited for years for the Twins management to trade veterans and rebuild the system. Terry Ryan sat on his hands and got properly chastized for it. Always acting as if we were 1 second rate starter or reliever away from a good team. Current management seems to be followiing the same worn out route. Who are they trying to kid?

 

Ryan traded pretty much every vet - Revere, Span, Liriano, Slowey, Doumit, Buetera, Morneau, Fuld, Correa, Hammer etc. Our system had been highly ranked for many years. What you're trying to complain about is that you didn't like the return on those trades. This thread always devolves into "Twins should have gotten more for Hammer" and "Twins should have traded Perkins."  

 

Dozier and Santana aren't blocking anyone right now so they don't have to trade either. Everyone complains that Kinzler is a bad closer because he can't strike anyone out, he's about to be a FA and we expect a big haul for him? 

[jorgenswest]

This is Kintzler's one opportunity to get a good contract. The opportunity is well earned. He would be wise to wait and see all offers. Any extension offer accepted now would have to be a clear overpay.

[gman]

 

Ryan traded pretty much every vet - Revere, Span, Liriano, Slowey, Doumit, Buetera, Morneau, Fuld, Correa, Hammer etc. Our system had been highly ranked for many years. What you're trying to complain about is that you didn't like the return on those trades. This thread always devolves into "Twins should have gotten more for Hammer" and "Twins should have traded Perkins."  

 

Dozier and Santana aren't blocking anyone right now so they don't have to trade either. Everyone complains that Kinzler is a bad closer because he can't strike anyone out, he's about to be a FA and we expect a big haul for him? 

I didn't say anything about previous trade results or Kinsler ability. You might try responding to what someone actually says. If you have a problem with trade results or think Kinsler is a poor closer then take credit for your own thoughts.

[Monkeypaws]

 

Some of you remind me of used-car salesmen, trying to unload a Lincoln Contintal with high miles but a shade of rust in the wheel wells.

 

Or a day trader in commodities about to take a bath on early corn on the cusp of a bumper crop.

 

Looking at the standings, the Twins are sinking out of contention, but selling?

 

You won't sucker another GM into forking over Crown Jewels for ESan, Dozier, or Kinsler. Twins will likely benefit from keeping their best players, and play for next year. Add a few FAs, they'll likely be better next year not selling.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Some of you remind me of used-car salesmen, trying to unload a Lincoln Contintal with high miles but a shade of rust in the wheel wells.

Or a day trader in commodities about to take a bath on early corn on the cusp of a bumper crop.

Looking at the standings, the Twins are sinking out of contention, but selling?

You won't sucker another GM into forking over Crown Jewels for ESan, Dozier, or Kinsler. Twins will likely benefit from keeping their best players, and play for next year. Add a few FAs, they'll likely be better next year not selling.

 

Do teams generally add "a few" free agents in 1 year that make a difference? I can't think of it working that well, but I admit not to researching.

[Craig Arko]

 

Do teams generally add "a few" free agents in 1 year that make a difference? I can't think of it working that well, but I admit not to researching.

Jack Morris and Chili Davis?

[Monkeypaws]

Do teams generally add "a few" free agents in 1 year that make a difference? I can't think of it working that well, but I admit not to researching.

It depends on the core taking the next step as much or more.

 

However, a couple competent MLB pitchers, one in the rotation, one in the pen, that would be huge.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Jack Morris and Chili Davis?

 

In the last 20 years?

 

I mean, sure, they could add a FA starter and a DH and a RP, but have people looked at the list of FA SP?

[MangLitch]

I'd go Dozier for Buehler, Bellinger and Alvarez. 

 

 

Man, those threads are funny to read now. What a steal that would have been eh?

 

Now for the serious part. 

 

I don't trade Dozier because I do not think you get value back for him at this point. We are in the weak position of wanting to move him.

 

Erv won't bring back the haul we think we need. If he does, I would be shocked. I think you let him keep mentoring the young.

 

I would like to see #4 and #5 spots open up by trading all the pieces that have been there this year(Probably just have to DFA). Trade Garcia, Keep Maqina, Erv and Mejia. Then fill in until September and let the kids pitch the rest of the month. 

 

Give them a taste before next year and position yourself for 2018. I think Romero and Gonsalves should get a few starts up here to get a taste for the offseason. 

 

 

 

 

[Vanimal46]

 

In the last 20 years?

 

I mean, sure, they could add a FA starter and a DH and a RP, but have people looked at the list of FA SP?

 

2015 Cubs.... Signed Lester, traded for Fowler/Montero, signed Hammel to pair with the upcoming rookies and went from worst to first. 

[Mike Sixel]

 

2015 Cubs.... Signed Lester, traded for Fowler/Montero, signed Hammel to pair with the upcoming rookies and went from worst to first. 

 

Well, there is no Lester available, and the Twins aren't playing in that pool, but yes, the CUBS are good at this....

[gunnarthor]

 

2015 Cubs.... Signed Lester, traded for Fowler/Montero, signed Hammel to pair with the upcoming rookies and went from worst to first. 

I'm not sure we should be looking at a 200+m payroll as a blue print for the Twins.

[HitInAPinch]

If you want to improve the Twins for a playoff run next year [Ok, let's just go with a big jump in wins] you need to be thinking bigger than trading Dozier, Kintzler or Santana.  I'll speculate and say that a few upside prospects from the lower minors may be possible for each.  

 

Let's start with the basics:  

 

Which Twins player(s) would garner the largest returns?

The obvious follow-up question:  Would you actually trade them?

 

That's the catch.  "Sell low [Dozier, Kintzler and Santana], buy high" isn't going to happen.

 

 

 

[gunnarthor]

 

If you want to improve the Twins for a playoff run next year [Ok, let's just go with a big jump in wins] you need to be thinking bigger than trading Dozier, Kintzler or Santana.  I'll speculate and say that a few upside prospects from the lower minors may be possible for each.  

 

Let's start with the basics:  

 

Which Twins player(s) would garner the largest returns?

The obvious follow-up question:  Would you actually trade them?

 

That's the catch.  "Sell low [Dozier, Kintzler and Santana], buy high" isn't going to happen.

I would trade Rosario, Dozier, Santana, Kinsler, Grossman, Romero and Gonsalves for the right return. Sano, Kepler, Buxton, Berrios, Gordon I would not move unless another team absolutely overpaid.

 

Polanco, Mauer, Escobar, Castro/Giminez, Vargas, Gibson et al have very limited value so it's not worth discussing but if the FO manages to move any, that's fine.

[Darius]

I'm not sure why we think this team will compete in 2018.

 

We got an epic couple of months from Sano, MVP level. We got a couple of months of Cy Young caliber starts from Santana and Berrios. Kintzler, Rogers, and Duffey pitched out of their rear for most of the first half. Polanco's defense was unsustainably good for a few months.

 

There was so much overachieving going on, and this team still couldn't hold its head above water into August.

 

I don't want to have the same team next year, it will accomplish nothing in terms of advancing the state of the franchise.

[gunnarthor]

 

I'm not sure why we think this team will compete in 2018.

We got an epic couple of months from Sano, MVP level. We got a couple of months of Cy Young caliber starts from Santana and Berrios. Kintzler, Rogers, and Duffey pitched out of their rear for most of the first half. Polanco's defense was unsustainably good for a few months.

There was so much overachieving going on, and this team still couldn't hold its head above water into August.

I don't want to have the same team next year, it will accomplish nothing in terms of advancing the state of the franchise.

Because that's generally how teams improve. Below .500, get to .500, get to playoffs.

 

Sano is a stud. Buxton and Kepler will be studs. Berrios will be a stud. These aren't finished players. They have a really nice offensive nucleus. They need to improve the starting pitching somehow but there are reasons for optimism with this group.

[Vanimal46]

 

Well, there is no Lester available, and the Twins aren't playing in that pool, but yes, the CUBS are good at this....

 

 

I'm not sure we should be looking at a 200+m payroll as a blue print for the Twins.

 

 

Agreed. It was just the first example that came into my head. Cleveland in 2013 signed Michael Bourne, Nick Swisher, and made a trade for Trevor Bauer to improve their win total by 24 games and make the playoffs for the first time in 7 years. 

 

[Kwak]

Oh my!  After all of the victory dances taken by trading for Garcia (and how that shows the FO is "in it to win it") the response is:  "Trade..." from the Active Roster?  What a mixed message.  

 

At least wait until August (if/when the team is buried) and then look to move some "expiring contracts".

[Mike Sixel]

 

Oh my!  After all of the victory dances taken by trading for Garcia (and how that shows the FO is "in it to win it") the response is:  "Trade..." from the Active Roster?  What a mixed message.  

 

At least wait until August (if/when the team is buried) and then look to move some "expiring contracts".

 

Trading just for Garcia shows they are in it to win it? That's one low bar. Did people say that?

[Taildragger8791]

 

Because that's generally how teams improve. Below .500, get to .500, get to playoffs.

 

Sano is a stud. Buxton and Kepler will be studs. Berrios will be a stud. These aren't finished players. They have a really nice offensive nucleus. They need to improve the starting pitching somehow but there are reasons for optimism with this group.

 

There are reasons for optimism but we're still a very flawed club. We're going to have to replace Santana's early season otherworldly production in addition to getting 2-3 more reliable starters, and replace almost the entire bullpen. There are no promises any of the young arms in the system (or May/Perkins) will be impact players, so we're going outside the organization to find all that production which is expensive, unreliable, and difficult. There's also going to be significant shuffling going on at SS/2B/1B/C/DH the next couple years. That's a lot of moving parts to find and make work in the short term with limited trade/payroll resources.

[Kwak]

 

Trading just for Garcia shows they are in it to win it? That's one low bar. Did people say that?

Molitor praised the trade for its affirmation of the teams success this year.

[ahart10]

Do teams generally add "a few" free agents in 1 year that make a difference? I can't think of it working that well, but I admit not to researching.

Yanks in 09 CC and Tex.

[ahart10]

I'm not sure why we think this team will compete in 2018.

 

We got an epic couple of months from Sano, MVP level. We got a couple of months of Cy Young caliber starts from Santana and Berrios. Kintzler, Rogers, and Duffey pitched out of their rear for most of the first half. Polanco's defense was unsustainably good for a few months.

 

There was so much overachieving going on, and this team still couldn't hold its head above water into August.

 

I don't want to have the same team next year, it will accomplish nothing in terms of advancing the state of the franchise.

For every guy that's over achieved this year a player has failed just as dramatically.

[mikelink45]

Has anyone checked out Dozier?  .247 and 16 homeruns. https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/doziebr01.shtml His fielding, his batting do not make him elite this year.  Even in Fantasy https://www.fantasypros.com/mlb/rankings/2b.php he does not make it.  So what do we have now for trade bait?  Santana and Kintzler.  We might have missed the big opportunity.  But what we have is not enough. 

[Major League Ready]

 

Agreed. It was just the first example that came into my head. Cleveland in 2013 signed Michael Bourne, Nick Swisher, and made a trade for Trevor Bauer to improve their win total by 24 games and make the playoffs for the first time in 7 years. 

 

Bourne and Bauer had nothing to do with the success of the 2013 Indians.  Bauer pitched 17 innings and Bourne was terrible.  He was a terrible acquisition in general.   Swisher was ok in 2013 and bad the next 2 years so he was not an example of building for success.  

 

They were good because Masterson and Jiminez had career years.  They picked up Kazmir who was good.  Kluber made incredible improvement and Zach McAlister was a player to be name later who worked out very nicely.  That’s a lot of things going right for a pitching staff.  The Twins need a little of that good fortune.  I guess the equivalent would be if Gonsalves and Romero reach their ceiling and May comes back to pitch well.   Sign me up for that scenario please.

[gunnarthor]

 

There are reasons for optimism but we're still a very flawed club. We're going to have to replace Santana's early season otherworldly production in addition to getting 2-3 more reliable starters, and replace almost the entire bullpen. There are no promises any of the young arms in the system (or May/Perkins) will be impact players, so we're going outside the organization to find all that production which is expensive, unreliable, and difficult. There's also going to be significant shuffling going on at SS/2B/1B/C/DH the next couple years. That's a lot of moving parts to find and make work in the short term with limited trade/payroll resources.

Oh, sure, this is a flawed club but most teams are flawed. Look at Cleveland. Pitching is solid but they're probably going to lose Brantley, Jackson and Santana. Encarnacion will be 35 and making nearly 19m, they already have 77m in payroll for next year not counting arbitration raises.  Cody Allen, Bauer, Salazar and Kipnis are going to be expensive arb guys. Outside of LA, there really aren't perfect teams. The Twins just need to get enough stable starting pitching to let the offense take over. 

[kab21]

 

The case for trading Santana is:
1) It is highly likely that his 2018 performance (4.50-5.00 ERA, 180 innings) is replaceable this offseason in free agency for similar cost.
2) There are playoff teams that need pitching depth, in particular teams that are riding on young arms that may need help getting to and through the playoffs. Brewers and Yankees seem like best fits to me, but maybe the Nationals depending on how Strasburg's injury situation shakes out.
3) While acquiring MLB-ready pitching would be nice, the Twins don't necessarily need to trade for prospects that will be ready in 2018. Instead, they could just trade for lower-level prospects that they could use as trade chips in the offseason.

The problem is that every GM in baseball knows that Ervin isn't great and they have known all season. I see top 100 prospect names dropped on here (Sheffield for example).

If the positions were reversed, would anyone be trading a pitching prospect better than Gonsalves or Romero with 2nd players included (high upside low level guys)? I think everyone would say no and then point out all the reasons that people say the Twins must trade him now.

 

The market is limited with Dozier since nobody has come up with a team that logically needs to trade for a 2B. That was the problem last offseason (Dodgers were bidding against nobody) and it is the problem now.

 

The player to trade then is Escobar similar to Nunez last year. He has the position versatility to play 2B/SS/3B so he can fit into any team. He is also on a reasonable contract with a year of arb left so teams won't run into salary issues. It is selling which I am against for the most part but MI is a team strength right now and Nick Gordon should be up at some point next season. Not enough spots for everyone. It is possible that Escobar fetches a prospect that isn't dramatically lower than Santana and doesn't really impact the team much.

[DocBauer]

My personal opinion only....selling hurts the Twins in 2018 and continues the rebuild.

 

1] Santana could bring back a couple nice "prospects" but nobody to plug in. We have now weakened, temporarily at least, the biggest hole on the team. Despite not pitching as well as he did to start the season, he's still quality, still solid, and I expect him to be so next season as well. Could the wheels suddenly come off? Sure they could. But that could happen to almost anyone. The nucleus of the team is here, and going to get better and better. I'm putting my money on a solid to good Santana for at least one more season vs bringing in another couple prospects.

 

2] Kintzler, frankly, has far exceeded expectations. And he's done it long enough now, and well enough, for it not to be just smoke and mirrors. He will want his money, but I doubt he's going to break anyone's bank. And if traded, like Santana, and despite his success with the Twins, what is he going to bring back? Another "prospect" or two?

 

3] Dozier is talented enough, proven enough, that he could bring back an interesting piece or two. He is the one guy the Twins could afford to trade...Polanco, Escobar, Adrianza, Gordon, Vielma (maybe) and Goodrum (bigger maybe), and possible FA all providing depth and options...to cover for the loss of Dozier. It still comes down to what he can actually bring back.

 

Again, IMPO, you keep Santana and Kintzler for what they bring, and you float Dozier and see. After that, you do the following:

 

1] Acquire the best SP you can. Hopefully through FA to keep your depth and future trade options open.

 

2] Sign a quality RP to set up or compete maybe with Kintzler.

 

3] Sign a veteran LH starter or "failed" LH starter to convert/re-invent himself as a RP. The Twins have a pretty good history of doing this.

 

4] If you don't believe in Vargas, or he doesn't prove himself the rest of the season, you sign or trade for a quality 1B to DH and platoon for a season with Mauer before taking over full time in 2019. This deepens the lineup and bench.

 

Even though he has yet to throw a pitch for the Twins, you might look to re-sign Garcia if he does well and just cut bait with both Santiago and Gibson. You have a talented roster that will only get better. You've added a couple arms to the pen to go along with what you have, and are auditioning, with depth. And you have a rotation of Berrios, NEW GUY, Santana and maybe Garcia with, potentially, Gonsalves, Romero, Jorge and Slegers in AAA.

 

You can call me crazy if you want, but I really, really like the potential of that team.

[Oxtung]

I think if you're looking to trade a Dozier and Santana it's because you don't believe the Twins will be competitive in 2018. In that case the return you get back doesn't have to be MLB ready pitching.

 

If you think the Twins are going to be legitimate contenders next season then hold onto Dozier/Santana and try to resign Kintzler.

[JustinCB]

I guess I still have the stomach for the long game a bit until I can at least squint and see a team with a real chance. As for this one, if we're all being honest, it isn't there yet and all the Marco Estrada's in the world aren't going to get them there. I'm tired of watching them lose but perpetual 1st round playoff exits was worse, in a way.

Just gonna repost this from a week ago