AL Central 2018 -- Is the door open?

[Riverbrian]

White Sox started selling before the season started. 

 

Tigers traded JD and are rumored to sell more. 

 

Royals could potentially lose the entire core to free agency after the season.

 

Can the Twins time this and take advantage?  

[drjim]

Twins will certainly have a window. Should aggressively add this winter.

 

Cleveland should still be the favorites, but they are going to have to make some tough financial decisions and their pitching is showing some cracks.

[gunnarthor]

They have the pieces of a pretty solid offense. They need to upgrade pitching but if they do that, they could certainly be division winners

[beckmt]

Yes, but will the checkbook be open enough to fill the holes.  Twins need to buy at least 1 major starter among other issues with the pen.

[Linus]

It's very open. And Falvine need to act that way especially since the clock is ticking on the core 4

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Yes, but will the checkbook be open enough to fill the holes.  Twins need to buy at least 1 major starter among other issues with the pen.

It better be, as Mauer comes off the books in 14 months. If they punt on 2018 because Mauer is making $23m, fans should be outraged. The window to win has opened, now is the time to start adding pieces and payroll.

 

I'll be immensely disappointed if the Twins add less than $15m of free agents this offseason (actually more like $20m would be my target).

[Otto von Ballpark]

The Royals should have some money to re-sign someone, right? Hosmer, Cain, and Moustakas aren't playing for free right now. And not all of their pending FA are good -- losing Alcides Escobar would probably be addition by subtraction. They should be able to stay in the hunt next year...

[Thrylos]

I'd wait for 2017 to end before I start thinking seriously for 2018, but:  Unless: this bullpen gets rebuild (and I am talking 3 new power arms at the end of it), they get 2 starters to pitch better then Berrios, and get at least a LH power bat to compliment Sano, I doubt it.

Can they go all out and get all of that?   Can some internal prospect step up?  A combination needs to happen.  May will be back and he is actually a big questionmark for the rotation and one who could contribute right away.  But will he?

[drjim]

The Royals should have some money to re-sign someone, right? Hosmer, Cain, and Moustakas aren't playing for free right now. And not all of their pending FA are good -- losing Alcides Escobar would probably be addition by subtraction. They should be able to stay in the hunt next year...

They'll lose a whole lot of talent, have minimal internal options to replace it, and the payroll is currently stretched.

 

I don't see it, they are headed for a 3-4 year rebuild minumum.

[diehardtwinsfan]

If they added one well above average starter and one or two well above average relievers, I'd have to say that it would do wonders.

[DJSim22]

 

I'd wait for 2017 to end before I start thinking seriously for 2018, but:  Unless: this bullpen gets rebuild (and I am talking 3 new power arms at the end of it), they get 2 starters to pitch better then Berrios, and get at least a LH power bat to compliment Sano, I doubt it.

Can they go all out and get all of that?   Can some internal prospect step up?  A combination needs to happen.  May will be back and he is actually a big questionmark for the rotation and one who could contribute right away.  But will he?

 

 

That sounds like about 80 million to me.  I'd think one SP and one RP would do wonders.  Starters going longer would cure a lot of issues for the bullpen. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

They'll lose a whole lot of talent, have minimal internal options to replace it, and the payroll is currently stretched.

 

I don't see it, they are headed for a 3-4 year rebuild minumum.

You're probably right. They may be stubborn about it, though, especially if they can re-sign one of them, and maybe hang around .500? Although they also may have Vargas to replace, and their bullpen advantage has already vanished...

[Riverbrian]

 

I'd wait for 2017 to end before I start thinking seriously for 2018.

 

Because the 2018 AL Central Landscape will look a little different in consideration of the Tigers, White Sox and Royals.

 

I'm hoping that 2018 is part of the 2017 trade deadline considerations. 

 

Such as:

 

Trading for Sonny Gray because he will help in 2018 as well as 2017. IMO... It's easier to give up some higher end prospects if you see an open 2018 door. 

 

Disclaimer: I'm not saying we should trade for Sonny Gray and I'm also not saying we should completely drain the farm system. I'm just saying that we could consider some higher end prospects if they have an extra year. 

[gman]

The door may open a little more in 2018, but I think it will be primarily because of players brought up to continue filling out the major league roster. I don't see any reason to spend big on free agents in the offseason, especially based on what will be available. Trades should be based on bringing in good prospects to add to our core. We need to bring up 2-3 bats to replace Dozier and Mauer by the end of 2018. Neither of which has much positional flexible and Mauer basically can't be traded. We will also need to bring up 2-3 starters and 4-5 relievers if possible.  Santana has lost trade value based on the way he has pitched in June and July and other than Kinzler we don't have a lot of tradable veterans of any value. So that leaves us to promoting from within and continue to grow the team.

[Old Twins Cap]

Twins upgrade chances are: 

1.  Bringing up Gordon to play SS

2.  Sano to 1B

3.  Bringing in a power hitting 3B

4.  Replacing Dozier with an energetic and athletic 2B

4.  Garver to catcher

5.  Finding some starting pitching

6.  Filling in the bullpen

 

If that's a window, it will need a lot of panes to make it work.

[DJSim22]

If the Twins don't trade away their top players and add a #3 type SP and a RP who can at least be a set up man, there is no reason this team shouldn't finish 2nd maybe 3rd at worst in 2018.  I take that back, if Sano, Santana, or Berrios doesn't get hurt....

[DJSim22]

 

 

Twins upgrade chances are: 

1.  Bringing up Gordon to play SS

2.  Sano to 1B

3.  Bringing in a power hitting 3B

4.  Replacing Dozier with an energetic and athletic 2B

4.  Garver to catcher

5.  Finding some starting pitching

6.  Filling in the bullpen

 

If that's a window, it will need a lot of panes to make it work.

 

 

Moustakas could be your 3B, although I'm not sold on him sustaining this power. 

[beckmt]

 

Twins upgrade chances are: 

1.  Bringing up Gordon to play SS

2.  Sano to 1B

3.  Bringing in a power hitting 3B

4.  Replacing Dozier with an energetic and athletic 2B

4.  Garver to catcher

5.  Finding some starting pitching

6.  Filling in the bullpen

 

If that's a window, it will need a lot of panes to make it work.

Mauer is actually having a good year and if you resign him for 2 years at $5 - $7 million a year, could work well.  

Gordon needs to play and if we lose Polanco, that may be the price we pay.  Right now I am fine with Escobar and Alehandro at SS. 

With Santiago coming off the books along with some of the intermediate signings this year(and Gibson if you do not tender him), you should be able to buy 1 mid level starter(would like them to aim higher, but not as likely this year).

Bullpen needs to be the #1 prioritiy, get the kids up now and lets see what they have.  Spending this offseason will be much easier if some of the kids turn out to be good pieces.

Get Sano signed long term,  if you cannot sign him long term, you have a completely different set of issues going forward, in fact I would try now and this should have been done this month(this is a major fail by the FO).

[Riverbrian]

 

Twins upgrade chances are: 

1.  Bringing up Gordon to play SS

2.  Sano to 1B

3.  Bringing in a power hitting 3B

4.  Replacing Dozier with an energetic and athletic 2B

4.  Garver to catcher

5.  Finding some starting pitching

6.  Filling in the bullpen

 

If that's a window, it will need a lot of panes to make it work.

 

You make it sound like the Twins will have to be perfect. 

 

 

 

 

[Thrylos]

 

That sounds like about 80 million to me.  I'd think one SP and one RP would do wonders.  Starters going longer would cure a lot of issues for the bullpen. 

 

Not necessarily.  Depends on who within the organization steps up.  The 2 out of 3 end of the pen arms could be 2 of: Jay, Burdi, Chargois, Curtiss, Bard, Reed etc.   May can be a second SP.  Romero also.

 

They still do need that power lefty bat to protect Sano.  Big time.  Not sure that they have anyone like that in the organization. 

 

So, yeah, two arms (SP and RP) and a bat are the minimum needed, based on the hope that they can fill in the rest outside the organization.

 

Re: that $80M:

 

Their 2017 Opening Day Roster is at $108M

Savings:

Santiago $8M
Perkins: $6.5M
Kintzler: $3M
Gibson:$3M
Belisle:$2M
Breslow:$1.25M
Nolasco:$4M

Total: $27.72M

And trading Santana and Dozier will save them an additional $20M

 

So, even if they need $80M, which they will not. $30M for an Ace, $10M for a closer and $10M for a bat is more like $50.

 

That will get their opening day $ to $130M or $110M (right at the 2017 number, if they trade Santana and Dozier to fill in some of those holes, letting May replace Santana and Gordon Dozier.)

 

Money is not the issue here.  Cojones is.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Not necessarily.  Depends on who within the organization steps up.  The 2 out of 3 end of the pen arms could be 2 of: Jay, Burdi, Chargois, Curtiss, Bard, Reed etc.   May can be a second SP.  Romero also.

 

They still do need that power lefty bat to protect Sano.  Big time.  Not sure that they have anyone like that in the organization. 

 

So, yeah, two arms (SP and RP) and a bat are the minimum needed, based on the hope that they can fill in the rest outside the organization.

 

Re: that $80M:

 

Their 2017 Opening Day Roster is at $108M

Savings:

Santiago $8M
Perkins: $6.5M
Kintzler: $3M
Gibson:$3M
Belisle:$2M
Breslow:$1.25M
Nolasco:$4M

Total: $27.72M

And trading Santana and Dozier will save them an additional $20M

 

So, even if they need $80M, which they will not. $30M for an Ace, $10M for a closer and $10M for a bat is more like $50.

 

That will get their opening day $ to $130M or $110M (right at the 2017 number, if they trade Santana and Dozier to fill in some of those holes, letting May replace Santana and Gordon Dozier.)

 

Money is not the issue here.  Cojones is.

Man, forgot about Perkins. That changes my target for free agency. Spend at least $20m this offseason, $25m preferred.

 

They should have even more to spend than that but I'm more interested in shoring up holes than making a giant splash in free agency this offseason. The front office should be able to pick up an adequate starter and some good bullpen pieces for $25m.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

It better be, as Mauer comes off the books in 14 months. If they punt on 2018 because Mauer is making $23m, fans should be outraged. The window to win has opened, now is the time to start adding pieces and payroll.

 

I'll be immensely disappointed if the Twins add less than $15m of free agents this offseason (actually more like $20m would be my target).

one starting pitcher? C'mon, gotta aim a little bit higher. Need at least two relievers as well as a bat. 30 to 33 mil gets one good starter (15 to 18 mil) plus two good relievers (4- 6 mil ea) and a DH/bench bat

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Mauer is actually having a good year and if you resign him for 2 years at $5 - $7 million a year, could work well.

Gordon needs to play and if we lose Polanco, that may be the price we pay. Right now I am fine with Escobar and Alehandro at SS.

With Santiago coming off the books along with some of the intermediate signings this year(and Gibson if you do not tender him), you should be able to buy 1 mid level starter(would like them to aim higher, but not as likely this year).

Bullpen needs to be the #1 prioritiy, get the kids up now and lets see what they have. Spending this offseason will be much easier if some of the kids turn out to be good pieces.

Get Sano signed long term, if you cannot sign him long term, you have a completely different set of issues going forward, in fact I would try now and this should have been done this month(this is a major fail by the FO).

Mauer is still under contract as your DH in 2018

[bluechipper]

 

one starting pitcher? C'mon, gotta aim a little bit higher. Need at least two relievers as well as a bat. 30 to 33 mil gets one good starter (15 to 18 mil) plus two good relievers (4- 6 mil ea) and a DH/bench bat

Santana, Berrios, Mejia, FA, and one of several #5 starter options would be good. I'd be surprised if they went and got 2 starting pitchers in the offseason.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

one starting pitcher? C'mon, gotta aim a little bit higher. Need at least two relievers as well as a bat. 30 to 33 mil gets one good starter (15 to 18 mil) plus two good relievers (4- 6 mil ea) and a DH/bench bat

I'd go with one starter. You have Berrios and Santana up front. You pick up a free agent starter as your third guy.

 

After that, you leave two spots open for Mejia, May, Gonsalves, and Romero.

[drjim]

 

I'd go with one starter. You have Berrios and Santana up front. You pick up a free agent starter as your third guy.

 

After that, you leave two spots open for Mejia, May, Gonsalves, and Romero.

 

I wouldn't go into the season leaving 2 spots for those 4. One spring injury and it is a depth scramble all season.

 

They need to add 2 guys (assuming they don't keep Gibson).

[drjim]

I would also add, it is quite likely none of May, Gonsalves or Romero will be ready on day 1 next season.

[Thrylos]

 

Man, forgot about Perkins. That changes my target for free agency. Spend at least $20m this offseason, $25m preferred.

 

They should have even more to spend than that but I'm more interested in shoring up holes than making a giant splash in free agency this offseason. The front office should be able to pick up an adequate starter and some good bullpen pieces for $25m.

 

The last time the Twins won, they went after the biggest arm and the biggest bat available in the offseason (Morris, Davis), added a former Cy Young winner to their pen (Bedrosian) and then "closed holes" (Pags, Willis) and allowed their younger players already a year of 2 in their roles or Rookies (Aguilera, Mack, Tapani, Erickson, Knaublach) to do what they can do.

 

Going half ass has been Ryan's MO.  "Adequate starter" does not cut it to compete in the post season.  This team is not a Kevin Correia or a Phil Hughes or a Mike Pelfrey or a Ricky Nolasco away.  They need 2 arms better than Berrios, to allow Berrios to pitch the way he needs to without overthinking and without thinking that he has to win every game.  They need a Jack Morris (or 2) not a Ricky Nolasco.

 

As far as those "good bullpen pieces" go.  This sounds a lot like Breslow, Belisle, Jansen, Capps etc.  Nope.  They need better than that.  They need 2 arms who can play at the end of the bullpen in any team in the league.

 

If not, another half-ass off-season that might win them the Central in 2018 and then (once again) one and out...

[Richie the Rally Goat]

I'd go with one starter. You have Berrios and Santana up front. You pick up a free agent starter as your third guy.

 

After that, you leave two spots open for Mejia, May, Gonsalves, and Romero.

agreed only one starter, but id rather the starter be the number one or two depending on availability. Need 2 good setup relievers though.

[Vanimal46]

I would hope the window is open. Supposedly the White Sox are building a super team that will be ready in 3 years....