Stick a fork in Santiago

[bighat]

 

Yep, and they called Busenitz back up for his spot. Not sure who will pitch in Santiago's old spot.

 

Cool.  Yeah just saw LENIII's Twitter post:  "Twins place Hector Santiago on the DL, call up Busenitz". 

 

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Not sure who will pitch in Santiago's old spot.

Let's see... Santiago's next turn is Friday.

 

Gee is scheduled to pitch today in a doubleheader for Rochester, so probably not him.  Turley pitched 5 innings yesterday, so not him either.

 

Felix Jorge would line up pretty well, since he started last Saturday.

 

We wouldn't need a 5th starter again until Tuesday July 18.

[Vanimal46]

 

Let's see... Santiago's next turn is Friday.

 

Gee is scheduled to pitch today in a doubleheader for Rochester, so probably not him.  Turley pitched 5 innings yesterday, so not him either.

 

Felix Jorge would line up pretty well, since he started last Saturday.

 

We wouldn't need a 5th starter again until Tuesday July 18.

 

I wouldn't mind seeing another spot start from Jorge. 

[Craig Arko]

 

I wouldn't mind seeing another spot start from Jorge. 

Jorge up, Pressly down?

[Vanimal46]

 

Jorge up, Pressly down?

 

Works for me. I just don't see Pressly turning things around this season. Whether it's overuse, injury, or whatever it is, he's just not the same. 

[old nurse]

 

Average doesn't matter for this discussion as it includes the pitchers that Gladden would be saying are crappy.

 

Eyeballing the numbers you threw out, I can buy his premise that he believes that a 4.00 ERA pitcher isn't good.

 

Back to the point, what has Gladden been saying about 1/2 to 3/4 of the staff having 5.50+ ERAs for the past 1.5 years?

When less than 40 pitchers who have thrown enough to be labeled as  qualified have an ERA under 4.25 it shows the difficulty even to be considered "good" for a given year in some people's eyes.   

 

Stick a fork in Santiago. Usually a velocity drop means something is going wrong with a pitcher's health.  The athlete is not performinging. Kill him

[Craig Arko]

 

Does anyone have any Advil or Alleve?  I have some "upper thoracic back pain and discomfort" or maybe it's just that I'm causing some "just below the back area pain and discomfort" to my employer. I'm sure it's one of the two...

I believe you.

[Doomtints]

 

When less than 40 pitchers who have thrown enough to be labeled as  qualified have an ERA under 4.25 it shows the difficulty even to be considered "good" for a given year in some people's eyes.   

 

Stick a fork in Santiago. Usually a velocity drop means something is going wrong with a pitcher's health.  The athlete is not performinging. Kill him

 

Why limit this to just who qualified? Nowhere does this definition mention starters. How many closers have a sub-4.00 ERA but don't qualify? How many starters don't qualify due to being rookies or due to an injury? Does being "new" make a pitcher not good? Does being a reliever make a pitcher not good? By using "Qualified" pitchers only, you are arguing that only starters who pitch entire seasons can be good pitchers.

 

Now that we have qualification out of the way, 75 pitchers have a sub 4.00 ERA with 40+ IP.  40 IP is something probably 5% of relievers have hit by now, so we are still mostly talking about starters. If you lower the IP to 20 to catch the bulk of relievers, it's 190 pitchers.

Would you say there are more than 190 good pitchers in the league today?

[yarnivek1972]

Unless someone else lands on the DL, it can't be Jorge.  The Twins used the DL exception to the 10 day rule to call up Busenitz.

[drjim]

 

Unless someone else lands on the DL, it can't be Jorge.  The Twins used the DL exception to the 10 day rule to call up Busenitz.

 

Jorge was the 26th man call up, he can come back (I think?).

[yarnivek1972]

 

Jorge was the 26th man call up, he can come back (I think?).

 

 

Oh yeah.  That's right.  I had forgotten that.  He's good to go and almost certainly will be the guy.

[old nurse]

 

Why limit this to just who qualified? Nowhere does this definition mention starters. How many closers have a sub-4.00 ERA but don't qualify? How many starters don't qualify due to being rookies or due to an injury? Does being "new" make a pitcher not good? Does being a reliever make a pitcher not good? By using "Qualified" pitchers only, you are arguing that only starters who pitch entire seasons can be good pitchers.

 

Now that we have qualification out of the way, 75 pitchers have a sub 4.00 ERA with 40+ IP.  40 IP is something probably 5% of relievers have hit by now, so we are still mostly talking about starters. If you lower the IP to 20 to catch the bulk of relievers, it's 190 pitchers.

Would you say there are more than 190 good pitchers in the league today?

Sample sizes.  Through Santiago's first 7 starts he had an ERA of 2.96.  Santiago was a good pitcher, till he wasn't.  As the topic was about a starter, it seemed like a good idea to keep it to starters. Anything to prove a point I guess.

 

[Doomtints]

 

Sample sizes.  Through Santiago's first 7 starts he had an ERA of 2.96.  Santiago was a good pitcher, till he wasn't.  As the topic was about a starter, it seemed like a good idea to keep it to starters. Anything to prove a point I guess.

 

So we had no data on Santiago before 2017? Weird, I thought we did.

[jimmer]

So we had no data on Santiago before 2017? Weird, I thought we did.

just like we had plenty of info on Hughes.

[old nurse]

 

So we had no data on Santiago before 2017? Weird, I thought we did.

If you wish to consider  the entirety of Santiago's career then can you explain why people have it in for a pitcher that had  a career ERA of 3.69 before joining the Twins?   Surely Gladden would think that a pitcher that has been capable of a 3.69 ERA is a good pitcher.  Of the pitchers this that have pitched at least 40 innings only 59 of 191 have a better ERA than that.

 

[old nurse]

 

 

just like we had plenty of info on Hughes.

Hughes is signed to a contract.  That has no bearing on Santiago nor Santiago's health. There was plenty of information on Hughes. Enough good information that  they coaxed a career best season out of him   Since then all Hughes has done is show what limited knowledge people have of medical issues and performance.

[jimmer]

Hughes is signed to a contract. That has no bearing on Santiago nor Santiago's health. There was plenty of information on Hughes. Enough good information that they coaxed a career best season out of him Since then all Hughes has done is show what limited knowledge people have of medical issues and performance.

despite your SA response, Hughes must have been hurt every year this decade but 2014 then, which includes before 2014. A FIP of 4.50 or higher every year this decade but 2014, where it was 2.65. In fact, he has only one season in his starter career with a FIP under 4.25 (2014) and only two under 4.50 (2010 and 2014).

 

But yeah, 2014 wasnt a complete outlier based on what he had done. Instead, it was the real Hughes and only injuries have kept him from his 2014 self both before and after 2014.

 

Ridiculous extension.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

 

If you wish to consider  the entirety of Santiago's career then can you explain why people have it in for a pitcher that had  a career ERA of 3.69 before joining the Twins?   Surely Gladden would think that a pitcher that has been capable of a 3.69 ERA is a good pitcher.  Of the pitchers this that have pitched at least 40 innings only 59 of 191 have a better ERA than that.

His Career ERA is 4.00 and his career XFIP is 5.01. it appears his ERA has been positively impacted by things outside of his control.

[kab21]

 

that line of thought is why Terry Ryan is no longer GM. Starters 6-7 need to be as good as 5, and 8-10 need to be knocking on the door to the bigs. That is the kind of depth required to keep your rotation stocked year in/year out and win World Series

No team (or at least very few) in the majors has that kind of depth. Usually starters 8, 9 and 10 are cycling through one spot in the rotation by the time it gets that far. Or at least if you are talking about a good #5 starter.

 

The Twins problems this year (and many others) is that they are cycling their depth (which aren't very good) through at least 3 spots in the rotation. Both the MLB rotation and the MiLB prospects/AAAA callups (the 6th-10th guys) have been awful for quite awhile. At least next year it is likely that they could have 3 strong prospects in AAA to call up. That is progress.

[old nurse]

 

despite your SA response, Hughes must have been hurt every year this decade but 2014 then, which includes before 2014. A FIP of 4.50 or higher every year this decade but 2014, where it was 2.65. In fact, he has only one season in his starter career (2014) with a FIP under 4.25 and only two under 4.50 (2010 and 2014).

But yeah, 2014 wasnt a complete outlier based on what he had done. Instead, it was the real Hughes and only injuries have kept him from his 2014 self both before and after 2014.

Ridiculous extension.

The GM that initiated the contract is no longer with the club.  The horse is long dead and you wish to continue to beat on it.  What does it change? Nothing. 

[USAFChief]

His Career ERA is 4.00 and his career XFIP is 5.01. it appears his ERA has been positively impacted by things outside of his control.

Or XFIP isn't a very good measure of anything useful.

[old nurse]

 

 

His Career ERA is 4.00 and his career XFIP is 5.01. it appears his ERA has been positively impacted by things outside of his control.

So what of his career ERA and FIP.  BFD. Do you really think Gladden cares about the difference between ERA and FIP? Were you aware the whole purpose of the exchange was over what Gladden thinks is a good pitcher.?

[Richie the Rally Goat]

So what of his career ERA and FIP. BFD. Do you really think Gladden cares about the difference between ERA and FIP? Were you aware the whole purpose of the exchange was over what Gladden thinks is a good pitcher.?

i missed the part regarding Gladden's opinions regarding constitution of a good pitcher. Sorry. Kinda confused why Gladden's opinions would be relevant, but analysis done independently would not.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Or XFIP isn't a very good measure of anything useful.

agreed, xfip has its flaws, disagree on utility.

 

Can you tell me that pitcher's ERA would not be impacted by an outfield defense of Josh Wiilingham, Sam Fuld/Aaron Hicks, Oswaldo Arcia (2014) relative to Eddie Rosario, Byron Buxton, Max Kepler(2017)?

 

Is that not a valuable information set to try to parse out?

[Mr. Brooks]

Or XFIP isn't a very good measure of anything useful.

Perhaps. But it has been proven to be a better predictor of future results than ERA.

So, if the context is using his past numbers to set an expectation of his performance here, then xFIP is almost certainly more useful than ERA.

[Squirrel]

Jorge was the 26th man call up, he can come back (I think?).

Yes. And he is. He'll pitch tomorrow's (Friday's) game.

[USAFChief]

 

agreed, xfip has its flaws, disagree on utility.

Can you tell me that pitcher's ERA would not be impacted by an outfield defense of Josh Wiilingham, Sam Fuld/Aaron Hicks, Oswaldo Arcia (2014) relative to Eddie Rosario, Byron Buxton, Max Kepler(2017)?

Is that not a valuable information set to try to parse out?

It probably is, but I am far from convinced xfip does that.

[The Wise One]

 

agreed, xfip has its flaws, disagree on utility.

Can you tell me that pitcher's ERA would not be impacted by an outfield defense of Josh Wiilingham, Sam Fuld/Aaron Hicks, Oswaldo Arcia (2014) relative to Eddie Rosario, Byron Buxton, Max Kepler(2017)?

Is that not a valuable information set to try to parse out?

The predictive value of xfip is inning dependent.. At over 100 innings it predicts withing a range of 1.5. xfip 0f 3.5 predicts an ERA to be anywhere  from 2.75 to 4.25   It really does not  say much. The pitcher will be anywhere from outstanding to average.  A reliever would be from 2.5 to 4.5. Anywhere from dominant to gasoline

[Richie the Rally Goat]

 

The predictive value of xfip is inning dependent.. At over 100 innings it predicts withing a range of 1.5. xfip 0f 3.5 predicts an ERA to be anywhere  from 2.75 to 4.25   It really does not  say much. The pitcher will be anywhere from outstanding to average.  A reliever would be from 2.5 to 4.5. Anywhere from dominant to gasoline

at 70.1 inning pitched this season, we haven't even hit that threshold so agreed, the 6.13 xFIP is not exactly rock solid, but directionally does hold some value. However the quote earlier was career xFIP.

 

Santiago has 785 career innings = 5.01 career xFIP that seems to hold some weight.

 

[Jham]

at 70.1 inning pitched this season, we haven't even hit that threshold so agreed, the 6.13 xFIP is not exactly rock solid, but directionally does hold some value. However the quote earlier was career xFIP.

 

Santiago has 785 career innings = 5.01 career xFIP that seems to hold some weight.

One thing i don't get is why FIP and xFIP try to predict ERA. ERA is crap. Shouldn't it try to predict itself? If xFIP isn't stable year to year, how accurate is it really? I think that's the question.