Stick a fork in Santiago

[yarnivek1972]

Imo building next year's rotation starts with adding one legit good starter and keeping Santana. That gives you 3 good starters and then hopefully one of the 3 prospects (or May after rehab) can claim a spot early next year. While hopefully someone like Hughes (or other stopgap) can not get Gibson'd in the meantime.

No one is saying Santana is dead yet, but he's much more likely to be a 4 ERA starter going forward than one with a sub 3 ERA.

[Thrylos]

 

Imo building next year's rotation starts with adding one legit good starter and keeping Santana. That gives you 3 good starters and then hopefully one of the 3 prospects (or May after rehab) can claim a spot early next year. While hopefully someone like Hughes (or other stopgap) can not get Gibson'd in the meantime.

 

If you can add two pitchers for Santana (who is half a UCL or another positive PED test away from never performing again for the Twins), you do that.  He is just too old compared to the core of this team.

 

I'd pencil in Berrios and Mejia, hope that May comes back the way he was pitching in ST and that 2-3 of young arms for Santana (and Dozier), Jorge, Romero, Gonsalves are the rotation.

 

Getting after free agents (other than Pineda) at this point does not make sense.  Will clog the system with old expensive pitchers like Hughes at some point..

[kab21]

 

No one is saying Santana is dead yet, but he's much more likely to be a 4 ERA starter going forward than one with a sub 3 ERA.

No one is expecting Santana to be a sub 3 ERA pitcher. I expect him to pitch like he has for most his career (around a 4 ERA). 

 

If you can add two pitchers for Santana (who is half a UCL or another positive PED test away from never performing again for the Twins), you do that.  He is just too old compared to the core of this team.

 

I'd pencil in Berrios and Mejia, hope that May comes back the way he was pitching in ST and that 2-3 of young arms for Santana (and Dozier), Jorge, Romero, Gonsalves are the rotation.

 

Getting after free agents (other than Pineda) at this point does not make sense.  Will clog the system with old expensive pitchers like Hughes at some point..

You aren't adding two pitchers for Santana. In the best case you can get two decent pitching prospects for him that might be decent MLB pitchers sometime in 2018-2020. This team shouldn't be playing 2020. They shouldn't sell the future to play for 2017 or 2018 but signing a good FA doesn't hurt them (only Pohlad's bank account).

[Richie the Rally Goat]

I don't think you can count on all 3 either, which is why I'd want them in the 8-10 range of the depth chart.

 

I'm sure they'll sign plenty of exciting depth too, the Tepesch and Gee of next offseason.

in 2015 and in most seasons, the fewest number of starters a team uses is 8 and the average is 10 to 11. If those guys are 8,9,10 you ARE counting on all 3.

 

Sucky part about signing guys like Tepesch and Gee is they don't usually have options, which is why they are available to begin with.

[kab21]

 

in 2015 and in most seasons, the fewest number of starters a team uses is 8 and the average is 10 to 11. If those guys are 8,9,10 you ARE counting on all 3.

Sucky part about signing guys like Tepesch and Gee is they don't usually have options, which is why they are available to begin with.

this might be semantics but you actually aren't counting on all 3 if they are 8/9/10 on your list. At that point you are usually throwing stuff against the wall and hoping that one sticks. And I find Romero, Jorge, Gonsalves and a rehabbing May to be a lot more interesting (depth wise) plan B's than they have had for awhile. 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

this might be semantics but you actually aren't counting on all 3 if they are 8/9/10 on your list. At that point you are usually throwing stuff against the wall and hoping that one sticks. And I find Romero, Jorge, Gonsalves and a rehabbing May to be a lot more interesting (depth wise) plan B's than they have had for awhile.

It isn't semantics when the teams that use the fewest starting pitchers use 8, and the average is 10.5. Your best hope is to use fewer starters than average. At 9, you are still locked in to players who are equated with stuff you flung at a well.

 

Right now pitchers signed for the Rotation of 2018 are

 

Santana

Berrios

Hughes

May

 

And the prospects we've been relying on for 8-10.

 

So need to find 4 starters and 4-5 relievers for 2018? No problem

[drjim]

It isn't semantics when the teams that use the fewest starting pitchers use 8, and the average is 10.5. Your best hope is to use fewer starters than average. At 9, you are still locked in to players who are equated with stuff you flung at a well.

 

Right now pitchers signed for the Rotation of 2018 are

 

Santana

Berrios

Hughes

May

 

And the prospects we've been relying on for 8-10.

 

So need to find 4 starters and 4-5 relievers for 2018? No problem

It's true you use 9-11 starters, but 3 or 4 of them won't make more than a couple of starts. Sure you would ideally have great depth up and down the org, but that is a little unrealistic, even for the best orgs. Hopefully the Twins get there, but it won't be next season.

 

It is really hard to bring in quality minor league depth unless you trade major league assets. The Tepesch and Gee types round up depth, are available to make a start or two, and a team might catch something for half a season in a very rare situation.

 

Having 3 decent prospects that will be ready early in the season to make starts is actually a pretty nice position to be in.

[old nurse]

 

Back in 2009 or 2010, I recall Gordon and Gladden talking about how a pitcher with a 4.00 ERA is not a good pitcher.

What has Gladden been saying over the past year and a half with so many 5.50+ ERA pitchers on the team? It has to be aggravating.

4.32 was league average for a pitcher in 2008. Back in Gladden's peak playing years 4.42 ERA was poor.

[Mike Sixel]

I have been clear, those three should be in AAA, not the majors, right now. But they aren't finding 4 starters next year from outside the out that are any better than what they found this year.

[drjim]

I have been clear, those three should be in AAA, not the majors, right now. But they aren't finding 4 starters next year from outside the out that are any better than what they found this year.

All three of them are fine in AA for now.

 

The Twins certainly won't get 4, but they have a decent shot at 2, which is what they truly need. Goal should be one via free agency and one via trade.

 

Santana, Berrios, FA, trade, May, Hughes, Mejia, Gonsalves, Romero, Jorge, with a couple AAA guys to fill in.

[drjim]

They may also keep Gibson, so truly only acquire one starter. Exciting!

[USNMCPO]

 

What does Santiago even mean by saying he doesn't like shifts? He doesn't position the players. He just needs to hit his spot on the called pitch and chances are the hitter will hit it into the shift. After all, the shift is based on the pitching game plan.

I think that is the key. Santiago has a hard time hitting his spots so a shift for him is a bigger gamble than it would be for a better control pitcher. Santiago and Molitor need to have a serious discussion about what expectations and reality are. The shift is not going away because MATH. 

[kab21]

 

It isn't semantics when the teams that use the fewest starting pitchers use 8, and the average is 10.5. Your best hope is to use fewer starters than average. At 9, you are still locked in to players who are equated with stuff you flung at a well.

Right now pitchers signed for the Rotation of 2018 are

Santana
Berrios
Hughes
May

And the prospects we've been relying on for 8-10.

So need to find 4 starters and 4-5 relievers for 2018? No problem

No, that part is absolutely true. My point was that if the pitchers are the 8th, 9th and 10th option then they aren't being counted on to stick. That would be like counting on Turley and Jorge to stick this season or something like that. 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

No, that part is absolutely true. My point was that if the pitchers are the 8th, 9th and 10th option then they aren't being counted on to stick. That would be like counting on Turley and Jorge to stick this season or something like that.

that line of thought is why Terry Ryan is no longer GM. Starters 6-7 need to be as good as 5, and 8-10 need to be knocking on the door to the bigs. That is the kind of depth required to keep your rotation stocked year in/year out and win World Series

[bird]

 

 

 

I think nearly every friend I have back there made a trip to the store yesterday!

 

 

SSS

 

[DJSim22]

Is this off season going to produce a decent FA pitcher? 

 

Santana-Berrios-FA-Mejia-???   Isn't that bad a starting staff.  I'm not as sold on May as others. 

[Doomtints]

 

4.32 was league average for a pitcher in 2008. Back in Gladden's peak playing years 4.42 ERA was poor.

 

Average doesn't matter for this discussion as it includes the pitchers that Gladden would be saying are crappy.

 

Eyeballing the numbers you threw out, I can buy his premise that he believes that a 4.00 ERA pitcher isn't good.

 

Back to the point, what has Gladden been saying about 1/2 to 3/4 of the staff having 5.50+ ERAs for the past 1.5 years?

[Dantes929]

 

Personally I'm not concerned about destroying their future, just don't think they'll maintain success over multiple starts. Too much that needs to be cleaned up. Setting people up to fail is not a good long range strategy either

If what you say is true I am with you but what needs to be cleaned up?    Berrios had command issues that I agreed should be cleaned out at the lower level but I don't quite understand when someone says so and so should be ready after 4 more starts.    Just seems too arbitrary.  What does Gonsalves need to clean up?    If there is a reasonable answer then I am fine with it.

[drjim]

 

If what you say is true I am with you but what needs to be cleaned up?    Berrios had command issues that I agreed should be cleaned out at the lower level but I don't quite understand when someone says so and so should be ready after 4 more starts.    Just seems too arbitrary.  What does Gonsalves need to clean up?    If there is a reasonable answer then I am fine with it.

 

I can't say for certain, I don't watch him. I look at Gonsalves and wonder why he isn't quite as efficient with his pitches and why his hr rate jumped. I suspect there is a command issue, not so much for walks, but missing spots. Could be related to recovering from his injury. He has been pitching well his last 4-5 starts and I suspect that a promotion to AAA is coming soon.

 

I hope my speculation is correct, because he would have something to tighten up to be more successful in the majors. If he is more or less completely polished he is going to have a lot of trouble at higher levels.

[Linus]

Meanwhile Santiago has copped a bit of an attitude. Self awareness is a valuable trait Hector. I would worry about pitching better. It's funny because we traded Nolasco for Nolasco it seems.

[drjim]

I don't worry too much about one post-game complaint when he is obviously frustrated.

 

It's been mentioned before, but Santiago, while not great, was at least an acceptable backend starter prior to his emergency relief performance. Only one really bad start out of 11.

 

Since then he has been hurt and ineffective. He probably deserves a little bit more rope coming off his injury. Especially since the alternatives are not exactly that attractive.

[spanman2]

 

We're running out of forks. Better switch to chopsticks.

IALTO

[rghrbek]

 

They may also keep Gibson, so truly only acquire one starter. Exciting!

Based on Gibby's career, why would guys like Falvine keep him?  He'll be 30 in October, has recorded an out in the 7th inning, one time this year...

 

Gibson's career has been very bad.  Not below average, but bad.

 

These are the guys Twins need to let go and not keep holding onto, trying to squeeze one more year out of them.

[drjim]

 

Based on Gibby's career, why would guys like Falvine keep him?  He'll be 30 in October, has recorded an out in the 7th inning, one time this year...

 

Gibson's career has been very bad.  Not below average, but bad.

 

These are the guys Twins need to let go and not keep holding onto, trying to squeeze one more year out of them.

 

Might not be much of a trade market and the free agents available aren't the best. Gibson is locked in to a pretty reasonable contract. Depends on what they see in him.

[drjim]

Headed back to the DL. Not exactly a surprise.

[Linus]

I don't worry too much about one post-game complaint when he is obviously frustrated.

 

It's been mentioned before, but Santiago, while not great, was at least an acceptable backend starter prior to his emergency relief performance. Only one really bad start out of 11.

 

Since then he has been hurt and ineffective. He probably deserves a little bit more rope coming off his injury. Especially since the alternatives are not exactly that attractive.

Don't know if you saw the comment yesterday. He was asked after his BP session if he was starting Friday. His answer: supposedly

Odd answer that implies several things all bad.

[drjim]

 

Don't know if you saw the comment yesterday. He was asked after his BP session if he was starting Friday. His answer: supposedly
Odd answer that implies several things all bad.

 

I did not see that specific comment, not good. Seems the front office took care of that for the immediate future.

 

 

[Linus]

So he DLd?

[Jham]

Santiago was praised for giving up his next start and volunteering to pitch in that 30 inning thriller we lost. Short time later DL.

 

Team-first attitude guys are important. Santiago is better than he's shown recently. He needs to get healthy, and come back effective. Maybe in a relief role.

[Danchat]

 

So he DLd?

Yep, and they called Busenitz back up for his spot. Not sure who will pitch in Santiago's old spot.