2017 MLB draft thread

[Cory Engelhardt]

We can probably conclude safely that three of those are Greene, Wright, and McKay. Who might be the other two? Lewis? Gore? Someone else?

I feel like Jeremy has said that twins officials haven't seen Gore this spring. I don't know if that has changed. Jeremy, if the list is 5, who is the 5th along with Greene, Wright, McKay and Lewis? And please don't say Pavin Smith

[Tibs]

I don't think you can definitively say Greene has the highest upsides unless you believe in his secondary pitches. Some people seem high on them, others not so much. If the Twins like his curveball and changeup, then I think it would be a great pick. If not, then Wright would be a great pick.

[ashbury]

Don't think I saw this posted anywhere else. Interview with Falvey about the #1 pick by John Shipley at the Pioneer Press:

 

http://www.twincities.com/2017/05/19/mlb-draft-questions-with-twins-president-of-baseball-operations-derek-falvey/

Good interview. He asked, and got answers from the man, questions we've been going back-and-forth with on this site.

 

I liked Falvey's reply, bland though it may sound, "So, I look at it as, whether we’re picking first, fifth, 10th, 20th doesn’t matter; it’s important for us to get a lot of value out of each draft."

 

It ties in with something I've thought about for a while (I'm sure I read it somewhere ): with a long draft like baseball's, picking first is essentially like picking last, except you get one bonus pick at the very beginning and you dispense with one organizational filler pick at the end. What you do with that extra pick, swing for the fences or go safe, maybe comes from that way of looking at it. If you're super successful, you'll be picking last, for real, for years to come. So this one bonus pick both looms large and fades into less urgency in the big picture, depending on how you look at it. Obviously you want to pick well - but if you have confidence in your processes, you also take it in stride.

 

"We're essentially picking the same as the Cubs this year. Do we want a player who is 80% sure to be a significant major leaguer for several years, as our additional edge? Or do we want a 50-50 shot at The Next Bob Gibson (someone I've heard Greene for instance compared to) who also might flame out, in which case we're still on an equal footing with the Cubs?"

 

Also, every pick except the first comes directly after several of the most successful franchises, who by their reverse-order in the standings have some credibility for knowing what they are doing. So it's really a challenge to find the next prospect to pick in that environment - someone's already scooped up consecutively several guys you were presumably about to pick. In that light, having the first pick works out as somewhat less than a blessing.

[Willihammer]

I liked that answer too. Falvey also said "We want to line up [the board] and take the best player." Are those two statements contradictory? In most drafts the #1 picks is a. the most expensive, and b. not the best player taken. Ie. not the best value. If Greene, for example, is #1 on the board, and the Twins take him, and sign him for slot or even a bit overslot, that will put them at a disadvantage when they pick again at 35 as you describe. Becuase their bonus pool will be cut in half by that point. Fine if Greene turns into the next Bob Gibson, that's still a great value for the first round. But if Greene or one of the other top 3 (McKay or Wright) isn't worth the expense, then reaching down their board for a better value at #1 would let them reach up past the Cubs / Red Sox / etc when they pick again at 35 and 37 because they have saved some bonus pool money. Stockpiling mid-round prospects instead of taking straight BPA. Couldn't that be the best way to get maximum value when you pick #1 AND have picks 35 and 37?

[mudcat14]

My read from Falvey's comments, is that signability is going to have a large impact on the choice.  I don't know what any of the top 5 candidates are seeking in as bonus money, but it sounds like we want to have flexibility for picks #35, #37 & beyond.

 

"It doesn’t just come with Pick 1. We need to be thinking about how we can accumulate as much value as possible."

 

It could boil down to who wants to be the #1 pick and a Twin the most.  I'm sure they'll have pre-draft deal worked out with their selection.  I expect they'll come up with a max $ amount for each finalist based on their individual talent, potential, risk & leverage.  Whoever agrees to sign at or furthest below their respective 'Twins' value, will be the choice.

[Mike Sixel]

That strategy is harder to pull off because the pool is smaller, and two teams pick a second time before Minnesota. And, you can't reach ahead, you can hope your guys fall and then that you can sign them.

[Willihammer]

Its interesting to hear a guy like Jordon Adell talk about the decision to go to college or the pros. He could go anywhere from 5-20. Have to think the opportunity to be 1-1 with #5 bonus money (5.7m) would be awfully tempting.

 

https://youtu.be/anIJA5HWPcE?t=37

 

A $5.7 price tag would leave the Twins with $8.46m left, or nearly as much as the Phillies who pick #8.

[twinsfanstreif]

 

I liked that answer too. Falvey also said "We want to line up [the board] and take the best player." Are those two statements contradictory? In most drafts the #1 picks is a. the most expensive, and b. not the best player taken. Ie. not the best value. If Greene, for example, is #1 on the board, and the Twins take him, and sign him for slot or even a bit overslot, that will put them at a disadvantage when they pick again at 35 as you describe. Becuase their bonus pool will be cut in half by that point. Fine if Greene turns into the next Bob Gibson, that's still a great value for the first round. But if Greene or one of the other top 3 (McKay or Wright) isn't worth the expense, then reaching down their board for a better value at #1 would let them reach up past the Cubs / Red Sox / etc when they pick again at 35 and 37 because they have saved some bonus pool money. Stockpiling mid-round prospects instead of taking straight BPA. Couldn't that be the best way to get maximum value when you pick #1 AND have picks 35 and 37?

The problem with this assessment is that hitting on a player reduces dramatically after the top 5 picks and even more so after the top 20, the baseball draft is such a crapshoot I wouldn't trust a guy in the comp balance or the 2nd round to be a sure thing. There are plenty of examples of taking the "safe" pick and it back firing. What happens if we take a guy at #1 who ends up being like Adam Johnson (who was considered a "signability" pick at the time) and then with the savings we pick a guy who slipped for signability reasons and he never makes it? That would be disastrous . Because the bonus pools started in 2012 we don't have a ton of precedence for this, the first year the Astros did it and hit on both players in Correa and McCullers which makes us think it's a great strategy. In the next draft the Royals reached on Hunter Dozier (who was not considered a 1st round talent) to sign Manaea with mixed results (Dozier made it to the majors but has played poorly and Manaea was traded for Zobrist who helped them win a WS). In 2015 the Astros did it again by drafting Bregman who has been decent but Daz Cameron who they gave a $4 million bonus to is batting .179 in low A ball. Those are really our only examples of this strategy and our bonus pools at the top are shrinking this year so we might not even be able to do it as effectively

[mudcat14]

 

Its interesting to hear a guy like Jordon Adell talk about the decision to go to college or the pros. He could go anywhere from 5-20. Have to think the opportunity to be 1-1 with #5 bonus money (5.7m) would be awfully tempting.

 

https://youtu.be/anIJA5HWPcE?t=37

 

A $5.7 price tag would leave the Twins with $8.46m left, or nearly as much as the Phillies who pick #8.

 

I'm actually a huge fan of Adell.  I wouldn't be upset if the Twins made a reach for him at #5-#10 money.  Of course all would depend on who they would be able to follow up with.  I guess that's where multiple scouting evaluations, cross-checking & due diligence come into play.

[gunnarthor]

Yeah, if they could get Adell at 5.5 and save 2.2 and then somehow get a guy like Faedo or Canning to drop, it makes sense. But I'm not sure they can figure that out.

[nicksaviking]

They would need a deal in place going into the draft. They can't just hope/assume someone falls.

[Bob Sacamento]

If the Twins cut a deal at 1:1 with any HS positional player it'd likely be Royce Lewis not Jordan Adell but even then you're betting on projection and athleticism much like taking Hunter Greene on the prep pitching side.  

 

BA on Royce Lewis:

 

 

 

Lewis is high-waisted and broad-shouldered and runs like a gazelle; his best run times from home to first base are under four seconds. He’s typically a 70 grade runner but can flash an 80 run time when he gets out of the box well. He also shows plus-plus bat speed and plus raw power. Lewis played third base as an underclassman at JSerra and moved over to shortstop after teammate Chase Strumpf graduated. He played center field often on the summer showcase circuit preceding his senior year and showed plus range and flashes of advanced defensive instincts. He has the quick feet and plus arm strength required to play shortstop, though scouts aren’t certain that he’ll make the necessary adjustments as he continues to fill out and the speed of the game advances. Scouts have noted Lewis’s inconsistent spring at the plate, as there is length to his swing that has led to occasional weak contact. The UC Irvine recruit has had a consistently high contact rate, shows an advanced approach and a sound understanding of the strike zone. He makes lots of hard contact and has plus power potential. His pure hitting ability and defense will be the keys to his pro development.

 

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

That strategy is harder to pull off because the pool is smaller, and two teams pick a second time before Minnesota. And, you can't reach ahead, you can hope your guys fall and then that you can sign them.

harder, yes... but not impossible... and I'd add that guys always fall.  They simply lack the control over who that is (though it's not hard to convince someone with some leverage to ask more than their expected slot value).

[gunnarthor]

Another article on Jordon Adell - http://www.courier-journal.com/story/sports/preps/kentucky/2017/05/21/baseball-softball-postseason-preview/331077001/

 

Guy has 24 home runs in 91 at-bats. 

[Mike Sixel]

 

Another article on Jordon Adell - http://www.courier-journal.com/story/sports/preps/kentucky/2017/05/21/baseball-softball-postseason-preview/331077001/

 

Guy has 24 home runs in 91 at-bats. 

 

crazy stats!

[ashbury]

crazy stats!

His BABIP is around .600 so expect those numbers to drop.

[InfraRen]

I am resigned to saying Greene won't be the guy, and while I'm bummed, it is what it is. But now I'm to the point where I'd be pretty annoyed if they go McKay over Wright.

 

Nothing really suggests that McKay>Wright as a pure pitcher moving forward, given both are college guys that will both seemingly get to the majors semi-quickly.

 

Wright's stuff>>>McKay's.

 

Just my .02

[twins_89]

With the changes in the CBA there is a lot less incentive for the Twins to try to get a player to agree to a lowball offer with the 1st pick (since the money saved will be much smaller than was possible in the past). With that in mind, I can't see a reason not to go with the player who has the highest upside, which the general consensus seems to say is Hunter Greene.

[Willihammer]

 

Another article on Jordon Adell - http://www.courier-journal.com/story/sports/preps/kentucky/2017/05/21/baseball-softball-postseason-preview/331077001/

 

Guy has 24 home runs in 91 at-bats. 

And 9 strikeouts to 36 walks.

[Willihammer]

Austin Beck most likely done for the year. Went out with a bang- 3 homers and a single.

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/austin-beck-hits-three-homers-final-high-school-game/

 

Finished .590/.700/1.218 (1.918) with 12 home runs.

[InfraRen]

Keith Law on Buster Olney's pod today with a top 5 mock:

 

1. MIN - Kyle Wright

2. CIN - Hunter Greene

3. SD - MacKenzie Gore

4. TB - Brendan McKay

5. ATL - Royce Lewis

 

Law was just raving about Greene. Did say though that Wright would be in Twins rotation by end of '18 and was "smartly used" at Vandy.

 

Mentioned scouts are worried about McKay's velocity dip as season goes on.

 

http://www.espn.com/espnradio/play?id=19443943

[Mike Sixel]

Fangraphs had it's draft board up today.

[drjim]

Vandy gets knocked out of the SEC Tourney, so Wright gets a week off before Regionals.

[Thrylos]

 

. Shouldn't the organization have enough confidence to develop the higher ceiling pitcher?

 

Quick:  Give me the name of one high school pitcher this organization developed (this millennium) and then ask yourself whether anyone would have confidence in them doing that now.

[Vanimal46]

Fangraphs' 2017 Draft Sortable Board link here.

 

Eric Longenhagen's Thoughts on the overall quality of the draft class can be found here. 

 

Kyle Wright is the #1 prospect on the board according to him. 

[Bob Sacamento]

 

Quick:  Give me the name of one high school pitcher this organization developed (this millennium) and then ask yourself whether anyone would have confidence in them doing that now.

If the new Regime actually had installed a new minor league roving instructor or anything but the current system of Rasmussen and company then confidence could be had or at least hoped for in the future draft picks development.  

[prouster]

 

Quick:  Give me the name of one high school pitcher this organization developed (this millennium) and then ask yourself whether anyone would have confidence in them doing that now.

 

Well, the jury is still out on the two most recent. Berrios definitely looks promising, while Stewart has had his struggles. Looking at high picks, which generally have a higher hit rate, the Twins haven't taken many HS pitchers (this millennium).

 

Round 1:

Stewart (2013)

Kyle Waldrop (2004)

 

Supplemental/Sandwich picks:

Berrios (2012)

Hudson Boyd (2011)

Jay Rainville (2004)

 

The last HS pitcher the Twins took in the first round before any of these guys was Dan Serafini in 1992. So, it seems they've trended in other directions. If anything, the Twins' track record of taking college arms (when they haven't selected toolsy HS outfielders, that is) kind of debunks the notion that college pitchers are by definition "safer" than their younger counterparts. Every player needs to be evaluated on a case by case basis, of course, but I'm not sure it's okay to make generalizations about any team and/or kind of player when it comes to the MLB draft. Everyone misses more often than not, and even most of the "safe" guys fail.

 

 

 

 

[gunnarthor]

 

Quick:  Give me the name of one high school pitcher this organization developed (this millennium) and then ask yourself whether anyone would have confidence in them doing that now.

The Twins have taken five HS pitchers in the first 10 rounds in the Stiel period - Berrios, Stewart, Gonsalves, Moran and Balazovic.  Stewart is the only one that you can say is disappointing at this point.  Both Berrios and Gonsalves have so far exceeded expectations and Moran and Balazovic are so raw, it's really not worth worrying about yet.

[InfraRen]

John Manuel, JJ Cooper and Hudson Belinsky of BA do a "what they'd do" mock draft for top 5 and all 3 pick Kyle Wright #1.

 

Also mention that passing on Hunter Greene could be a big face-palm moment in future, but HS'er and breaking ball questions there.

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/2017-mlb-draft-podcast/#wbVps1UmJJtRFGl8.97

[Tibs]

 

Quick:  Give me the name of one high school pitcher this organization developed (this millennium) and then ask yourself whether anyone would have confidence in them doing that now.

That's completely besides the point of my post. It doesn't matter what our confidence level is of the organization. We aren't the ones coaching the players.