2017 MLB draft thread

[Willihammer]

 

Ouch... he's sure opening the door for Wright.  Why is it that the year we draft 1 overall, there is no clear consensus on who should go there.  Me no like.

To me there are two big questions at this point- is McKay's velo down again? And, how will Wright do in his 2-3 starts before the draft. If he continues to dominate and McKay doesn't recover his 90-94 then I think Wright's probably a consensus pick at that point. But if Wright peters out I'd be fine with that scenario as it opens the door for slot money shenanigans. The class looks fairly deep to me and there are 5-6 guys I'd love to have in the #4-22 range.

[Willihammer]

 

 

Hudson Belinsky on twitter said up to 95 and was sitting at 90-93 in the 5th

Good to hear. Any word as to whether that coincided with decreased cutter usage?

[Twins33]

Good to hear. Any word as to whether that coincided with decreased cutter usage?

I haven't seen anything about that. Seems like there was less info out there, twitter-wise, on this start than there has been in the past.

[Cory Engelhardt]

 

I haven't seen anything about that. Seems like there was less info out there, twitter-wise, on this start than there has been in the past.

 

Agreed, harder to find information. He's been the Friday starter for the year so I was surprised to see that he actually pitched last night. Didn't know that happened until this morning.

 

The velocity back up is encouraging, but man, the walks and absolutely falling into trouble in the 5th inning is not encouraging. 111 pitches just to get through 5? Oof.

 

 

 

Who is the player we, twinsdaily forum gatherers, want the Twins to take today? Is it Greene? Wright? McKay? Someone else?

[Cory Engelhardt]

 

Cory: Please tell me the Twins will take Wright #1. And, as a Minnesotan, any chance at all that Sam Carlson falls to their pick at #35? I have my doubts.

 

Keith Law: Nonzero chance of Carlson falling, just because there are too many HS arms for them all to go in the first round, and then I think Carlson gets an overslot deal in the sandwich. Couldn’t tell you who they will take; I think it’s Wright, McKay, or Greene.

 

And hey, that's me!

[drjim]

Agreed, harder to find information. He's been the Friday starter for the year so I was surprised to see that he actually pitched last night. Didn't know that happened until this morning.

 

The velocity back up is encouraging, but man, the walks and absolutely falling into trouble in the 5th inning is not encouraging. 111 pitches just to get through 5? Oof.

 

 

 

Who is the player we, twinsdaily forum gatherers, want the Twins to take today? Is it Greene? Wright? McKay? Someone else?

I've been Wright for over a month. Even moreso now.

 

I like his profile, still think there is upside. Seems he's got a very likely chance to be a 3 and could still be a 1. Plus he could get up next year.

 

I also think the 2 way guys are overrated. I'm most interested in maximizing value one way and not accounting for the small chance some value is recouped if they fail on the mound.

 

That said, I would accept a Greene pick, but looks like the Twins aren't going that way.

[Willihammer]

Sickels writeup on 19 y/o Carlsbad HS lefty Trevor Rogers:

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2017/5/18/15639202/trevor-rogers-lhp-carlsbad-new-mexico-scouting-report

[Willihammer]

Keston Hiura writeup too:

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2017/5/17/15508794/2017-mlb-draft-profile-keston-hiura-of-dh-university-of-california-irvine

 

Gotta think Hiura's gonna be a cheap sign owing to the elbow. The bat sure looks legit.

[gunnarthor]

 

Keston Hiura writeup too:

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2017/5/17/15508794/2017-mlb-draft-profile-keston-hiura-of-dh-university-of-california-irvine

 

Gotta think Hiura's gonna be a cheap sign owing to the elbow. The bat sure looks legit.

Hiura might be a nice grab at 37. Sounds a bit like the Dodgers Willie Calhoun and a nice RH bat in left field fairly soon could be beneficial.  

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Hiura might be a nice grab at 37. Sounds a bit like the Dodgers Willie Calhoun and a nice RH bat in left field fairly soon could be beneficial.  

Calhoun just keeps hitting too.  Admittedly it's the PCL, but he's got a 133 wRC+ there in his debut, age 22, with the same intriguingly low K rate.

[mudcat14]

I'm still a Hunter Greene man.  Hopefully all this McKay & Wright chatter is just a smokescreen to bring his bonus ask down.  Is there risk?  Sure, but the kid is a generational player.  You don't pass them up.  Period! 

[Twinsoholic]

Hey Mudcat,

 

Green is certainly talented, but I second the caution someone cited yesterday--it may have been Thrylos--about bandying the term "generational" talent around. Is The consensus that Green is one of the best draft eligible prospects of the last 5 to 10 to 20 years?

 

Again, he is definitely a talent, and I wish him the best. I am hoping, though, that the Twins draft wright.

[Twins33]

Who is the player we, twinsdaily forum gatherers, want the Twins to take today? Is it Greene? Wright? McKay? Someone else?

I'm firmly in the Wright camp after being for Greene until about a month ago. I'm not confident Greene develops those other pitches and the Twins offensive core is here now so Wright would hopefully help much faster.

 

Usually I'm not the "safe" pick type, but Wright just feels like he fits better in more ways. No pick is ever truly 100% safe anyway.

[biggentleben]

I put up something at Call To The Pen today, studying the best #1 overall picks, inspired by the fact that the Twins are less than a month from the draft and still in first place. By far the best was the 2008 Tampa Bay Rays as far as season success. However, interesting tid bit is that the Twins had the best winning percentage at the time of making the #1 selection when they picked Mauer in 2001.

[mudcat14]

 

Is The consensus that Green is one of the best draft eligible prospects of the last 5 to 10 to 20 years?

 

A consensus?  I have no idea, but there are plenty of scouting experts with much more insight than any of us who have bestowed him with that very label.  I didn't make it up.  

 

He has 100+ mph velocity, with a textbook delivery from a 17-year old arm and mature beyond his years make up.  No, his secondary offerings aren't nearly as polished as the couple of candidates who are 4 years his senior.  Both of whom, top out at least 5 mph below Greene on the gun.

 

On top of that, he has the athleticism and stroke to project as a 1st round pick at SS right now if he chose never to throw another pitch.  Again, I'm not making this up.  That is the consensus.

 

I honestly think the biggest mark against him is the fact that no HS RH has ever gone #1.  I'll be very disappointed if we don't buck that trend.     

 

 

[prouster]

Kyle Wright tossed 7.1 innings tonight against Alabama. 5 hits, 1 walk, 1 run, 11 strikeouts. Another excellent start.

[AlwaysinModeration]

Kyle Wright tossed 7.1 innings tonight against Alabama. 5 hits, 1 walk, 1 run, 11 strikeouts. Another excellent start.

From the write-up, this note about his past six starts:

 

"He gave up one run on five hits across 7.1 innings to finish off his sixth straight start of at least seven innings. During the six-game stretch, Wright has allowed just six runs on 17 hits with 62 strikeouts over 46.2 innings."

 

Meanwhile, as noted earlier, McKay pitched on Thursday against Florida State, with Kade McClure going Friday night. He gave up 7 runs, 5 earned, in 5IP, 5 hits, 4 walks, 6Ks on 111pitches. If you look at McKay's stats and squint a bit, you could say his teammate Drew Ellis is putting up better offensive numbers, and McClure may have surpassed him in the mound as the Friday starter.

 

I'm getting onboard the "Wright Choice" train, I think.

[Mr. Brooks]

I was all in on Greene a couple months ago, but I'm coming around to Wright in a big way.

Right now I'd be thrilled with either.

I don't want McKay at all.

[drjim]

I think with Wright it is important to remember it's not just numbers and performance, he sits 94-96 and has 4 pitches to work with.

 

He has to tighten his command and his secondary pitches (especially the changeup), but he absolutely still has upside.

[Old Twins Cap]

Nothing wrong with getting a solid 6' 4" RH with good stuff and durability, who is ready in what?, two years.  I take that all day long.  Let him rise to his level and carry the Twins along.

 

These kids stashed down in the minors for half a decade, they are fun to follow and even help this website, but, in the end, most of it is fantasy baseball.  Arm injuries, suspensions, setbacks....

 

I want a competitive team.

 

There was a RH from Vanderbilt over a decade ago, maybe not as big or talented. but he turned out Okay.

Maybe not fair to compare, but it is a baseball pedigree school.

[prouster]

Wright's velocity seems to have stayed on point into the later innings of his start.

 

[Willihammer]

Thursday/Friday night notables:

 

LSU vs Miss. St

Rooker: 4-9, 1 2B, 1BB, 2K

Lange: 7.0, 6, 1, 5, 11. 6/4 FO/GO

 

FL St vs Louisville

McKay: 1-4, 1 2B, 2K

Ellis: 0-3, 1BB, 1SB

 

Tyler Holton (Sophomore) threw 8.0, 5, 1, 3, 11. 3/7 FO/GO

 

AL vs Vandy:

Kendall: 6-9, 1 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR, 2 K

Wright: 7.1, 5, 1, 1, 11. 6/3 FO/GO

 

OR vs USC:

David Peterson: 7.0, 5, 2, 1, 9. 2/9 FO/GO

 

Utah vs UCLA:

Canning: 9.0, 6, 3, 2, 10. 9/7 FO/GO

 

VA vs GA Tech:

Haseley: 5-9, 2 2B, 1 HR, 2 BB, 1 SB

Smith: 2-8, 1 HR, 3 BB

 

Duke vs UNC:

Bukauskas: 7.0, 4, 2, 4, 8

 

KY vs FL:

Faedo: 5.1, 13, 7, 1, 5. 2/7 FO/GO

White: 3-10, 4 K

 

MSU vs IL St:

Burger: 3-8, 1 BB, 1 K

 

UC Irvine vs UC Riverside:

Hiura: 2-5, 1 BB, 1 K, 2 SB

[diehardtwinsfan]

I've been on the McKay bandwagon all spring, but I have to say I'm liking Wright's resurgence.  I'm probably leaning towards Wright at the moment..  That's probably the best combo of upside/safety.

[Bob Sacamento]

 

I've been on the McKay bandwagon all spring, but I have to say I'm liking Wright's resurgence.  I'm probably leaning towards Wright at the moment..  That's probably the best combo of upside/safety.

Yeah the longer this goes, the better and better Wright keeps looking at #1 even if his ceiling is a #2/#3 starter, the stuff is obviously there and the control has been looking a tick better.  I've liked McKay as a 1B for awhile as I feel his ceiling their is higher than as a starter even if he could pitch in the big leagues in 2018.

[Willihammer]

Don't think I saw this posted anywhere else. Interview with Falvey about the #1 pick by John Shipley at the Pioneer Press:

 

http://www.twincities.com/2017/05/19/mlb-draft-questions-with-twins-president-of-baseball-operations-derek-falvey/

[Willihammer]

 

 

Can you tell me how many guys you’re looking at?

For the Pick 1? I would say, to be honest about it and fair, I would say about five. We want to make sure that we’re not ruling anything out. The reason I say that is maybe it is a slightly smaller group than five, but the reality is injuries could occur in the last two weeks, or maybe a kid decides he really wants to go to college, and then you have to have that conversation with a high school player. I never rule anything out in the draft, so I want to make sure — even though it’s Pick 1 — I want to focus on more than just one to three players.

Argh. Only 5? I know they've systematically scouted the whole country but surely there are more than 5 they ought to be considering, no? When the goal is to get the most value out of the draft?

[drivlikejehu]

 

Argh. Only 5? I know they've systematically scouted the whole country but surely there are more than 5 they ought to be considering, no? When the goal is to get the most value out of the draft?

 

It really wouldn't make sense for more than that to be under consideration. They've obviously scouted all the top players and to have a bigger group would mean they can't tell who is the cream of the crop.

[prouster]

Argh. Only 5? I know they've systematically scouted the whole country but surely there are more than 5 they ought to be considering, no? When the goal is to get the most value out of the draft?

We can probably conclude safely that three of those are Greene, Wright, and McKay. Who might be the other two? Lewis? Gore? Someone else?

[beckmt]

I would still lean toward Greene.  He could be a one in 10 year or 20 year talent.  Wright would be my second choice.  College pitcher, here in 2 - 3 years.  Feel the kid from NC is too likely to end up as a closer(not bad, but not in my book 1-1).  Rest do not look like 1-1 to me.  Maybe the high school lefty, but he might be too hard to predict. 

I am betting that if Twins do not take Greene or Wright and the pick flames out,  the pitchforks and tar will be out in full force on this board.

[DaveW]

Greene is the choice. Can't pass up the upside.