2017 MLB draft thread

[Monkeypaws]

 

Always draft the player that your scouting department feels will be the best player in the long term... whether that player is a pitcher or hitter, college or high school... 

 

And if you develop a surplus of desirable prospects, then your GM goes to work.

 

I'd rather have 5 elite CF prospects to work with than average players across the diamond that "fill a need."

[AZTwin]

How about we take the player that the Dodgers scouting department feels will be the best player? They seem to have all the prospects we want already.

Yes. They have picks 1-30 but we have the first pick in round 2!

[darin617]

 

If there's no clear cut number 1, you do your research and grab the player you believe in most. For as good as Buxton is, I doubt Houston regrets Carlos Correa. Adrian Gonazles in 2000 is another example, sans the draft cap. You find the player you believe in most, and draft him-- regardless of cap savings.

 

I think Houston was one of the first teams to get smart and sign a player who would sign for less money so they could draft players that fell with the saved money.

[nytwinsfan]

 

wow.. mocks are up already... Not sure I like our pick here unless Kendell is going to play good CF and hit like Kris Bryant.

 

http://www.mymlbdraft.com/MLB-Mock-Draft

 

This one has us taking one of his teammates...

 

http://www.fueledbysports.com/2017-mlb-mock-draft/

If Kendell can hit, what's wrong with having someone with CF caliber defense playing LF? Seriously? That would be awesome for a pitching staff that is likely to contain a number of fly-ball prone pitchers (e.g, Hughes, Berrios, May, perhaps Gonsalves, Jay, De Leon). Look at how Alex Gordon's LF defense helped KC in recent years. By all accounts Kendell's defense might even be a step up from that. Obviously he has to hit pretty well to play LF, but if he hits as even an average LF, with his speed and defense he could be a very very valuable LF.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

If Kendell can hit, what's wrong with having someone with CF caliber defense playing LF? Seriously? That would be awesome for a pitching staff that is likely to contain a number of fly-ball prone pitchers (e.g, Hughes, Berrios, May, perhaps Gonsalves, Jay, De Leon). Look at how Alex Gordon's LF defense helped KC in recent years. By all accounts Kendell's defense might even be a step up from that. Obviously he has to hit pretty well to play LF, but if he hits as even an average LF, with his speed and defense he could be a very very valuable LF.

 

Nothing if he can hit... I guess the question at hand is what is 'hitting'.  I think I'd want an impact bat, not a .800 OPS guy with great defense in the corner. I realize .800 OPS is pretty good, but this is the top pick in the draft, and .800 with good defense isn't going to be the BPA (in my opinion) if there's a guy who is a potential ace.

[nytwinsfan]

 

Nothing if he can hit... I guess the question at hand is what is 'hitting'.  I think I'd want an impact bat, not a .800 OPS guy with great defense in the corner. I realize .800 OPS is pretty good, but this is the top pick in the draft, and .800 with good defense isn't going to be the BPA (in my opinion) if there's a guy who is a potential ace.

 

Alex Gordon's OPS and WAR during his prime:

2011: .879 -- 7.2

2012: .822 -- 6.3

2013: .749 -- 4.2

2014: .783 -- 6.6

2015: .809 -- 2.8 

Average: .808 -- 5.42

 

That's definitely a player worth a top draft pick, despite averaging just above .800 OPS in his prime. And if anything Kendell might provide more value on D and on the base baths (Gordon didn't steal that many bases during his career). 

 

That being said, if Faedo looks like an ace (or Greene really really looks like an ace, given the extra risk of a 17 yo), sure, take them over Kendell.  

 

The issue I have with taking Kendell is just the relatively high K rate. If he can reduce that a bit and up the BB% a little bit, and Faedo and Greene don't convince as potential aces, I'd take Kendell. The tools are otherwise just too good.  Right now, those three are the ones I'd consider most seriously.

[ashbury]

That's definitely a player worth a top draft pick, despite averaging just above .800 OPS in his prime. And if anything Kendell might provide more value on D and on the base baths (Gordon didn't steal that many bases during his career). 

Does his physical stature cause some alarm bells? Sure, a Kirby Puckett can turn out for the best, but Puck being an anomaly just reinforces the risk, to me.

 

(I don't know that 5'11" 180 or 6'0" 190 at age 21 is a direct comp for Puckett, I'm just offering him as an example or someone not shaped like a stud athlete. He's bigger than Ben Revere, at least.)

[ashbury]

Does his physical stature cause some alarm bells? Sure, a Kirby Puckett can turn out for the best, but Puck being an anomaly just reinforces the risk, to me.

 

(I don't know that 5'11" 180 or 6'0" 190 at age 21 is a direct comp for Puckett, I'm just offering him as an example or someone not shaped like a stud athlete. He's bigger than Ben Revere, at least.)

Never mind, I think. I just looked up Mookie Betts. If that's the upside, I feel better. Joey Bats, with a better glove, even more so. If he can hit, he can hit.

[nytwinsfan]

 

Never mind, I think. I just looked up Mookie Betts. If that's the upside, I feel better. Joey Bats, with a better glove, even more so. If he can hit, he can hit.

 

Yup. Pucket was also only 5'8'', not 5'11''. Would we prefer Kendell to be 6'1''? Sure. But 5'11' is not too small for an OF with all of those remaining tools. Again, the lone knock on Kendell is the K rate. If that remains where it is, it remains a concern. If he can reduce it, then he is definitely worthy of a # 1 pick, although obviously Faedo or Greene (or someone else) could be MORE worthy.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Alex Gordon's OPS and WAR during his prime:

2011: .879 -- 7.2

2012: .822 -- 6.3

2013: .749 -- 4.2

2014: .783 -- 6.6

2015: .809 -- 2.8 

Average: .808 -- 5.42

 

That's definitely a player worth a top draft pick, despite averaging just above .800 OPS in his prime. And if anything Kendell might provide more value on D and on the base baths (Gordon didn't steal that many bases during his career). 

 

That being said, if Faedo looks like an ace (or Greene really really looks like an ace, given the extra risk of a 17 yo), sure, take them over Kendell.  

 

The issue I have with taking Kendell is just the relatively high K rate. If he can reduce that a bit and up the BB% a little bit, and Faedo and Greene don't convince as potential aces, I'd take Kendell. The tools are otherwise just too good.  Right now, those three are the ones I'd consider most seriously.

 

Now is when I note that I'm highly skeptical of defensive stats.     I get what you're saying there... and if there's no one that that looks like they can do better than those types of numbers, then by all means, take the OF.  I'm not saying otherwise.  Based on what I've read thus far though, I'm pretty skeptical that Kendell is the guy.  The main issue I have with Kendell is that he's a toolsy OF in a system full of toolsy OFs.  If he's the clear cut cream of the crop, you take it. I don't have issue there. I just don't see the gap.

 

I'd note the Royals nearly gave up on Gordon as well. He was a can't miss prospect that took a lot longer to turn into that guy they wanted him to be.

[nytwinsfan]

 

Now is when I note that I'm highly skeptical of defensive stats.     I get what you're saying there... and if there's no one that that looks like they can do better than those types of numbers, then by all means, take the OF.  I'm not saying otherwise.  Based on what I've read thus far though, I'm pretty skeptical that Kendell is the guy.  The main issue I have with Kendell is that he's a toolsy OF in a system full of toolsy OFs.  If he's the clear cut cream of the crop, you take it. I don't have issue there. I just don't see the gap.

 

I'd note the Royals nearly gave up on Gordon as well. He was a can't miss prospect that took a lot longer to turn into that guy they wanted him to be.

Who besides Buxton (and maybe Wade) is a toolsy outfielder in our system? Kepler and Rosario have decent tools, but they aren't remotely "toolsy" in the Buxton sense. And Granite has the speed/defense, but not the power and maybe not the hit tool either. Kendell's tools are nearly Buxton-level. 

[Mike Sixel]

Kendall would need to strike out a lot less for me to be interested.

[kellyvance]

 

I guess I should have said acquired, but your point remains. (don't forget they drafted Schwarber).

 

I have previously pointed out that the Cubs were rebuilt very quickly due to astute (and lucky) trades and signings. But, that can't only be luck. (mostly) Same group did it in Boston. It's why the Twins should be trading Dozier and ESAn, imo.....

Well, just because Cubs traded well doesn't mean Twins will.  

[Thrylos]

 

Who besides Buxton (and maybe Wade) is a toolsy outfielder in our system?

 

Badoo

[nytwinsfan]

 

Badoo

Mlb.com ranks his tools as:  Hit: 50 | Power: 50 | Run: 60 | Arm: 40 | Field: 50.

 

I guess that's sort of a toolsy outfielder.

[ashbury]

Mlb.com ranks his tools as:  Hit: 50 | Power: 50 | Run: 60 | Arm: 40 | Field: 50.

 

I guess that's sort of a toolsy outfielder.

When "toolsy" is used as kind of a left-handed compliment, it's probably the value of the arm that's overrated, no?

[Thrylos]

 

Mlb.com ranks his tools as:  Hit: 50 | Power: 50 | Run: 60 | Arm: 40 | Field: 50.

 

I guess that's sort of a toolsy outfielder.

 

I think that he is underrated, esp his arm.  He was only 17 last season and still growing.

[nytwinsfan]

 

I think that he is underrated, esp his arm.  He was only 17 last season and still growing.

Hey, I hope so!  Hmm, while his rookie debut was unimpressive, he was only 17, did have a 14.2 BB% walk rate and a very low BABIP (.243), especially for this speed.  So seems like definitely still a lot of potential there.  I assume he'll probably start 2017 in Elizabethton, no?

[gunnarthor]

 

I think that he is underrated, esp his arm.  He was only 17 last season and still growing.

Good point.  I really loved that pick and it'll be a lot of fun watching him develop these next few years.

[Thrylos]

 

Hey, I hope so!  Hmm, while his rookie debut was unimpressive, he was only 17, did have a 14.2 BB% walk rate and a very low BABIP (.243), especially for this speed.  So seems like definitely still a lot of potential there.  I assume he'll probably start 2017 in Elizabethton, no?

 

I would not be surprised if he repeats GCL.  Speaking of GLC, Jean Carlos Arias is another kid to keep your eye on as a toolsie OF.  He had a hard time adjusting to the US last summer, but there is a lot of potential there as well.

[specialiststeve]

My Guess after looking at some tape Kyle Wright appears to have the best fundamentals and with his size looks pretty projectable to keep improving. He would be my pick at this point.....

 

Greene looks like a good physical speciaman but is a LONG ways away....

 

Faedo's mechanics appear to be pretty hurkey  jerkey and injury risk waiting to happen.

 

With our GM's strength in pitching I would have to believe their 1st pick will be a pitcher....

[Bob Sacamento]

 

Hey, I hope so!  Hmm, while his rookie debut was unimpressive, he was only 17, did have a 14.2 BB% walk rate and a very low BABIP (.243), especially for this speed.  So seems like definitely still a lot of potential there.  I assume he'll probably start 2017 in Elizabethton, no?

Baddoo got some love on the BA podcast, more so as the Twins drafted him thinking he was one thing and he might turn out another.  Twins took him thinking he was going to be burner fast twitch centerfielder but once Akil got to camp and started working out with the Twins SC coaches he added on alot of muscle and looks like he might have more power to that stroke and could move to the corners as he played alot of RF in GCL/Instructs.

[King]

http://herosports.com/mlb-draft/mock-draft-1-twins-vanderbilt-jeren-kendall-reds-padres-rays-hunter-greene

 

Here is a mock draft article from HeroSports. They have done a great job with a lot of content over the past few weeks and not much to show for it (145 followers on twitter - https://twitter.com/HEROSportsBSB)

 

1. MINNESOTA TWINS
JEREN KENDALL, OF
VANDERBILT

There's a few different ways the Twins can play this, but assuming they take the best player on the board, that's Kendall, in this writer's humble estimation. There's no real weakness, and he could move quickly through the Minnesota system. -- Christopher Crawford

[Mike Sixel]

He has A LOT of swing and miss, so I'm not sure how he has no real weakness, frankly.

 

7 of the top 10 players are pitchers, and he has them pass on all of them. 

[Cory Engelhardt]

 

http://herosports.com/mlb-draft/mock-draft-1-twins-vanderbilt-jeren-kendall-reds-padres-rays-hunter-greene

 

Here is a mock draft article from HeroSports. They have done a great job with a lot of content over the past few weeks and not much to show for it (145 followers on twitter - https://twitter.com/HEROSportsBSB)

 

1. MINNESOTA TWINS
JEREN KENDALL, OF
VANDERBILT

There's a few different ways the Twins can play this, but assuming they take the best player on the board, that's Kendall, in this writer's humble estimation. There's no real weakness, and he could move quickly through the Minnesota system. -- Christopher Crawford

 

Jeren Kendall and Kyle Wright and Vanderbilt play their first game of the year tonight! Will be fun to follow.

[Vanimal46]

Well, considering the organization does not go out and buy ELITE FA pitching, this is the best bet to get one. I'm not sure if I would pass on a pitcher at 1-1. 

[King]

 

Jeren Kendall and Kyle Wright and Vanderbilt play their first game of the year tonight! Will be fun to follow.

If anyone wants a website link to watch this game feel free to send me a PM. Not sure if it is against TwinsDaily rules to post it here or even discuss it but mods feel free to delete this if it is.

 

 

[nicksaviking]

 

 

1. MINNESOTA TWINS
JEREN KENDALL, OF
VANDERBILT

There's a few different ways the Twins can play this, but assuming they take the best player on the board, that's Kendall, in this writer's humble estimation. There's no real weakness, and he could move quickly through the Minnesota system. -- Christopher Crawford

 

Sounds like hyperbole to me.

 

Why does every write up I see about him call him a 5-tool guy and also compare him to Billy Hamilton and Jacoby Ellsbury? Is power not a tool anymore?

 

Even if he has a little power, we've long known that lefties have to have a TON of power at Target Field to be more than a doubles hitter.

 

Frankly, I hope his strikeouts don't decrease. If he still has swing-and-miss questions come draft time he's probably a mid-1st rounder, exactly the kind of guy the Twins can promise overslot money to at #35 if he tells other clubs that he will only sign for X amount.

 

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Sounds like hyperbole to me.

 

Why does every write up I see about him call him a 5-tool guy and also compare him to Billy Hamilton and Jacoby Ellsbury? Is power not a tool anymore?

 

Even if he has a little power, we've long known that lefties have to have a TON of power at Target Field to be more than a doubles hitter.

 

Frankly, I hope his strikeouts don't decrease. If he still has swing-and-miss questions come draft time he's probably a mid-1st rounder, exactly the kind of guy the Twins can promise overslot money to at #35 if he tells other clubs that he will only sign for X amount.

 

Is Kendall a JR or SR?  That makes a big difference. He can do that if he's a JR, but that's quite a bit of risk for a college senior.

[gunnarthor]

I'm not against the Twins taking Kendell if they think he's the BPA but I really hope it's a pitcher.  And my sense is that BPA is usually a tier system so Kendell would really have to separate himself from Greene and Faedo et al (or the pitchers all have crap years).  If he does have that separation, take him and nab pitchers at the end of the first round.  But I'd still bet pretty heavily that we take a college pitcher at #1.