How do we fix this so called bullpen?

[beckmt]

 

A lot of these guys being discussed for promotion (Busenitz, Bard, Turley, Curtiss) aren't exciting names... Sounds more like shifting chairs on the Titanic. I'd rather promote the players who were drafted high and supposed to have more upside (Chargois and Reed when they're healthy, Melotakis) than marginal 26-28 year olds.

Disagree on Bard, but understand the point.  Bard was a compensation pick and not a lower pick that looks good.  We should at least move some of these pitchers to AAA and see what they have.

[nater79a]

 

Before today: 5% HR/FB, 91.4% LOB%, .214 BABIP, 5.5 K-BB%, 3.89 FIP, 5.05 xFIP

Disaster ready to happen.  And today, just the fuse got lit;  better go before he totally blows up

 

Exactly right, Thrylos.  Maybe if Breslow had a strikeout rate better than 4.4 K/9 he could get a punch-out once in awhile instead of sending a rocket to the fence trying to be caught by an infielder turned outfielder.

[darin617]

 

I'd promote Busenitz, Hldenberger, and Melotakis to start. Possibly even Curtiss or Rosario. 

The only problem with promoting all of them trying to find one that sticks is you need roster spots for them on the 40 man roster.

Sure there are a few on there now that could be set free but only so much wiggle room to work with.

[glunn]

The team with the worst record in baseball is the Phillies, 

 

The Phillies' best reliever appears to be their closer, Hector Neris, but he has had some problems.   http://www.thegoodphight.com/2017/5/24/15684616/hector-neris-is-back-baby

 

It seems to me that the Twins should at least scout Neris, and perhaps consider offering prospects who might help the Phillies. Neris is only age 27, so the Phillies will want top prospects, but maybe they might be willing to trade quality for quantity that has high upsides.

 

It's only May, but sometimes the early bird gets the worm, and I see no detriment to looking at players from the Phillies, the Padres and the Marlins, three teams that seem very unlikely to contend.

[HitInAPinch]

Well, seems like we have a completely burned out bullpen.  If for no other reason than that, changes need to be made just for the sake of:

1. Checking the MLB-ready status of the MiLB relief pitchers
2. Begin jettisoning some of those non-performers.

Of course, a better starting rotation would help a bunch, too.  

[Platoon]

Th depths of despair for a MiLB reliever would be to find out the the Twins didn't think you fit into their MLB bullpen rotation!

[Richie the Rally Goat]

The only problem with promoting all of them trying to find one that sticks is you need roster spots for them on the 40 man roster.

Sure there are a few on there now that could be set free but only so much wiggle room to work with.

are you worried someone will claim Matt Belilse or Craig Breslow?

 

My biggest fear in this situation is more depth, single A and double A guys getting promoted too early out of need rather than readiness, but it now seems moot. Due to ineffectiveness and injury those parts are moving anyways.

 

Might as well separate the wheat from the chaff now or the FO will both lose the division standing they have earned and still not know what they have in relievers later.

 

Sometimes trial by fire is the only way

[drjim]

The fun answer is they really can't do anything in the short term. Everyone in the minors of noted either got hurt or didn't pan out.

 

And they aren't going to give up an asset right now, maybe in July.

 

Enjoy the bullpen, 8 out of 10 games isn't a complete meltdown.

[Han Joelo]

I'll add my two vents to the whine line:  I hope Berrios doesn't overpitch today and get shelled, which will probably necessitate a Wheeler long relief appearance, which will also be a shelling.

 

I guess I understand the need for the ol' mop up long reliever, but two of them?  Why Wheeler if Rucinzki gets DFA'd immediately?  Couldn't they have used that open slot on someone with relief experience and strikes people out?  Does that person exist?

 

Still:  Chargois, Burdi, Jay, Reed.  Those guys were supposed to be ready and able to help this year, and they are all hurt.  Even a conservative FO would only anticipate half that much pain.  Time to make lemonade...

[drjim]

I'll add my two vents to the whine line: I hope Berrios doesn't overpitch today and get shelled, which will probably necessitate a Wheeler long relief appearance, which will also be a shelling.

 

I guess I understand the need for the ol' mop up long reliever, but two of them? Why Wheeler if Rucinzki gets DFA'd immediately? Couldn't they have used that open slot on someone with relief experience and strikes people out? Does that person exist?

 

Still: Chargois, Burdi, Jay, Reed. Those guys were supposed to be ready and able to help this year, and they are all hurt. Even a conservative FO would only anticipate half that much pain. Time to make lemonade...

If they had an experienced option they would have brought him up yesterday.

[Otto von Ballpark]

The fun answer is they really can't do anything in the short term. Everyone in the minors of noted either got hurt or didn't pan out.

Not true. The team has evidently thought Randy Rosario and Mason Melotakis were "of note" enough to protect for multiple years on the 40-man, and both are healthy and doing well right now. Felix Jorge is another one in that group who could perhaps benefit from some bullpen work.

 

Not to mention other names like Hildenberger, who may have lower odds of success than higher rated prospects but those odds are not zero.

 

If the names in my first paragraph are not actionable right now for whatever reason, it is almost certainly a better investment of available MLB innings/spots (which we know exist) to look at the best of the second group, rather than throw away more innings on Wilk, Rucinski, Boshers, Haley, Wheeler, etc.

[yarnivek1972]

If they had an experienced option they would have brought him up yesterday.

In a way, they did have an experienced option. Michael Tonkin is still in AAA. He's struck out 10 in 7 2/3 IP. Of course, he's also walked 4 and given up a HR already.

[drjim]

Not true. The team has evidently thought Randy Rosario and Mason Melotakis were "of note" enough to protect for multiple years on the 40-man, and both are healthy and doing well right now. Felix Jorge is another one in that group who could perhaps benefit from some bullpen work.

 

Not to mention other names like Hildenberger, who may have lower odds of success than higher rated prospects but those odds are not zero.

 

If the names in my first paragraph are not actionable right now for whatever reason, it is almost certainly a better investment of available MLB innings/spots (which we know exist) to look at the best of the second group, rather than throw away more innings on Wilk, Rucinski, Boshers, Haley, Wheeler, etc.

I have no problem if they call up Hildenberger, but it strikes me as shuffling chairs.

 

I'm surprised you didn't mention Romero, he's the one prospect that I think could add value right now. But I assume they'll keep him the rotation for a while longer.

 

Melotakis might be worth a look too, but Rosario and Jorge aren't doing much this year.

[drjim]

In a way, they did have an experienced option. Michael Tonkin is still in AAA. He's struck out 10 in 7 2/3 IP. Of course, he's also walked 4 and given up a HR already.

I was wondering if they considered him as an option yesterday. Molitor might even have thrown him out there in the 8th. (But not sure what his AAA workload was).

[drjim]

No chance they'll do sweeping changes that are being suggested here, but I do think that once the pen situation stabalizes they'll probably gas Belisle or option Pressly and start rotating through guys like Hildenberger, Melotakis, Curtiss, etc.

 

They aren't going to throw marginal guys like that into too hot a fire right off the bat.

[drjim]

If they were truly serious about trying to remain competitive, they'd start transitioning Romero to the pen really soon. Makes sense with the inning limitations he has. Much more likely he'll stay a starter in AA and shut down in late July/early August.

[Mr. Brooks]

If they were truly serious about trying to remain competitive, they'd start transitioning Romero to the pen really soon. Makes sense with the inning limitations he has. Much more likely he'll stay a starter in AA and shut down in late July/early August.

Romero should be able to throw about 120 innings this year. It's way too early to start transitioning him to the pen now. If you moved him to the pen now, he'd likely come up short of last years 90 inning mark.

 

Barring an injury, I don't think they'll shut him down at any point.

My guess would be he keeps starting through July, which gets him to about 105 innings, then moves to the pen for his final 25 innings.

Could even skip a start or two if needed.

[Jham]

Since the league has talked expanded rosters without much traction, I wonder if we'll start seeing more significant use of a rotating line of optionable relievers.  Personally, I don't think Belisle and Pressly are horrible pitchers, I just think they're overworked.  We've seen it in years past.  A lot has to do with our manager who continues to go to the same guys regardless of score while other arms sit unused.  

 

The only way we can go a full season with a 7 or even 8 man pen and still have something in the tank is to keep everyone well rested.  This means rotations to sparing use in AAA, AA, or the DL and starters pitching effectively.  The offense giving the team 10 fewer high-leverage situations per year would help too.  And of course, the manager has to be willing to rest his important arms. He has no problem benching Sano for 2 games after all.

[drjim]

Romero should be able to throw about 120 innings this year. It's way too early to start transitioning him to the pen now. If you moved him to the pen now, he'd likely come up short of last years 90 inning mark.

 

Barring an injury, I don't think they'll shut him down at any point.

My guess would be he keeps starting through July, which gets him to about 105 innings, then moves to the pen for his final 25 innings.

Could even skip a start or two if needed.

This is about right. Do think, barring skipped starts, 120 innings gets him to early August at the latest. He isn't going to make a start in the bigs this year.

 

I see Romero as the only potential difference maker in the minors for the big league pen. If they want to compete, they would probably be wise to start the transition now. Romero will very likely end up in the pen anyways, might as well start the transition now, especially since he is needed.

[Trevor0333]

I wonder if the last place Phillies could be talked into moving Helickson to be the 5th starter along with Neshek & Benoit to stabilize the pen. Both are off to strong starts & shouldn't have high costs.

[Thrylos]

 

The team with the worst record in baseball is the Phillies, 

 

The Phillies' best reliever appears to be their closer, Hector Neris, but he has had some problems.   http://www.thegoodphight.com/2017/5/24/15684616/hector-neris-is-back-baby

 

It seems to me that the Twins should at least scout Neris, and perhaps consider offering prospects who might help the Phillies. Neris is only age 27, so the Phillies will want top prospects, but maybe they might be willing to trade quality for quantity that has high upsides.

 

It's only May, but sometimes the early bird gets the worm, and I see no detriment to looking at players from the Phillies, the Padres and the Marlins, three teams that seem very unlikely to contend.

 

The Phillies are in a rebuilding mode, but they are like the Red Sox when they rebuild: they are unwilling to give top young MLB players away because they can afford to spend $100M a season to get 4-6 FAs in an off-season if available.   This would be like trying to get Mookie Betts from the Red Sox when they were in last place

 

[Thrylos]

 

In a way, they did have an experienced option. Michael Tonkin is still in AAA. He's struck out 10 in 7 2/3 IP. Of course, he's also walked 4 and given up a HR already.

 

Tonkin is experienced in sucking at the MLB level...

[Mr. Brooks]

This is about right. Do think, barring skipped starts, 120 innings gets him to early August at the latest. He isn't going to make a start in the bigs this year.

 

I see Romero as the only potential difference maker in the minors for the big league pen. If they want to compete, they would probably be wise to start the transition now. Romero will very likely end up in the pen anyways, might as well start the transition now, especially since he is needed.

It's way too early to move Romero to the pen. His ceiling is front of the rotation starter, you don't bail on that potential until you are convinced that he won't make it as a starter.

 

I don't even know where this opinion is coming from, actually. A few rough weeks transitioning to AA?

[yarnivek1972]

Tonkin is experienced in sucking at the MLB level...

Which makes him different than Breslow and Gibson?

 

The point is that he was an experienced arm that could very easily been handed the 8th and 9th yesterday. He cleared waivers once, chances are pretty good he would clear again. Paul obviously had no intention of using Rucinski with ANY lead. He just doesn't seem to understand that there are consequences to overusing relievers. I said before that winning yesterday should have been the secondary goal. The primary goal should have been resting the pen. If Rucinski comes in in the 8th and somehow gives up 14 runs in 2 IP so be it IMO. Are we really concerned about his psyche going forward? Now, the Twins still have a short bullpen today and still lost yesterday. Molitor also flat out told Rucinski that he has no confidence in him. In that case, the Twins might as well DFA him since Molitor won't use him unless he literally has no choice. Good day at the office, Paul.

[Shane Wahl]

I didn't read all this, but Melotakis, Hildenberger, Wimmers, and Tonkin seem to be immediately fixes for now. In that order. Eventually, Romero and Jorge could join the bullpen if it is still terrible at the end of August.

[yarnivek1972]

Not sure I'd use the term "fixes". Patches, perhaps. Deserving of a shot for Hilley and Melo certainly.

[mikelink45]

This is really a bigger frustration than many other issues because the bullpen is the one area that this FO did attempt to address - Breslow, Busenitz, and Belisle (maybe they need a bigger alphabet - B is not working).  Meanwhile we are burning up arms in the minors.  Seth's list of top prospects reads more like a hospital role call.  Whatever arms are working in the minors need to be in the majors.  If you are going to wear them out, do it where it helps the TWINS.  

 

Pressly has been a bust - he is the personification of potential.  We all love that fastball, but his track record does not match his velocity.  Belisle on the other hand has the unfortunate status of his work matching his velocity and that is not good.  Rucinski and Bosher have had multiple one game call ups - have they read the prospect list that Seth puts out?  

 

I know that the team bemoans the long game the night before last, but relievers are expected to occasionally pitch back to back and Santana took care of all but the last two innings. 

 

Of course they could have sent Gibson down after his performance and brought up another minor league arm.  What good does Gibson do the team when they are short handed and he would sit for four days?  Then they bring up Wheeler who is a starter.  I am very confused.  These last two games are key and we cannot afford to let them start us off on the wrong path. 

[Trevor0333]

 

The Phillies are in a rebuilding mode, but they are like the Red Sox when they rebuild: they are unwilling to give top young MLB players away because they can afford to spend $100M a season to get 4-6 FAs in an off-season if available.   This would be like trying to get Mookie Betts from the Red Sox when they were in last place

 

 

This is why you go after the guys like Neshek & Benoit.

[yarnivek1972]

 

He's not great, but he is one of the best 7-8 relievers in the organization and he's left handed. He looks to me like the classic back of the bullpen, potential LOOGY type guy. He might fetch a A Ball flier at the deadline or be part of a package for something better. There's no reason to get rid of him now. 

 

I'm all in favor of promoting 2-3 RPs and doing it now. I just think that Belisle, Boshers and Wheeler go first, with Pressly going to the DL, before we get to Breslow. That's what's so pathetic. The only 3 relievers that you really want to keep are Kintzler (he may not be much of a closer but he is a MLB RP), Duffy and Rogers.   

 

Except that Breslow isn't getting lefties out.  A .310 obp isn't good for a guy who is supposed to specialize in getting lefties out.  This isn't a new development.  Breslow's obp vs lefties:

 

2016: .423

2015: .351

2014: .381

2013: .304

 

 

The only thing that's really different is that instead of LHB hitting their way on against Breslow, he's now putting them on with walks.  At the end of the day though, he still isn't getting them out.  That's kind of a key element of LOOGY.  One of those "O's" is supposed to stand for OUT.

[lukeduke1980]

 

This is why you go after the guys like Neshek & Benoit.

Philly can afford to hang onto those guys until July to try to get max value.  I think the best bet is look at a cast strapped team who is not contending and try to give up the least in prospects by maximizing salary relief.  Not to the extent of the James Shields acquisition by Chicago the other year, but a Daniel Hudson from Pittsburgh, or a Ryan Madson from Oakland.  Or both we need help.