Tonkin

[Mike Sixel]

 

You've mentioned this a couple of times, do you have a link to the research on this? I'd like to dig into the numbers a little bit. I'm curious if this is actually true. I suspect that older pitchers are not hanging on as long (a consequence of PEDs), but I'm a little skeptical that the total number of pitchers debuting earlier has changed much. More are in the later 20s instead of mid 30s so that is dragging down the total age.

 

I haven't seen actual research, anecdotal comments on chats, ESPN, etc. 

 

but, there is this:

http://www.sportsonearth.com/article/72512952/major-league-baseball-pitchers-velocity-peaks-at-an-early-age

 

which talks about why teams might be going younger.

 

There are lots of articles about the average age of MLB rosters dropping most of this decade. Why that is, that varies by the researcher. 

 

 

[Craig Arko]

One might surmise the average age is dropping because younger players cost less, on average, than veterans.

 

I'm sure the fans will reap the rewards of the owners' savings.

[Shaitan]

 

WHIP means nothing when the game is on the line with a runner on 3B and one out. The runner scores whether Belisle gets a routine grounder to second or if Tonkin gives up a hit.

Most teams aren't paying for saves and holds. They pay for strikeouts and command. That has zero reflection on Tonkin, just the idea that in 2017 any smart team would pay for save or a hold.

 

I just don't buy it. An out is always better than a hit, and there are many non-strikeout scenarios that can prevent a runner from scoring from third.

 

Having the ability to strike a batter out is a great skill, but it can't exist without complementary skills. A pitcher who gets more strikeouts is not, by definition, better than a pitcher who gets an out through other means.

 

Hell, the runner can even score from 3rd on a strikeout. It's part of why this is a great game.

[yarnivek1972]

 

I just don't buy it. An out is always better than a hit, and there are many non-strikeout scenarios that can prevent a runner from scoring from third.

 

Having the ability to strike a batter out is a great skill, but it can't exist without complementary skills. A pitcher who gets more strikeouts is not, by definition, better than a pitcher who gets an out through other means.

 

Hell, the runner can even score from 3rd on a strikeout. It's part of why this is a great game.

 

 

Or sometimes second, if Jason Castro is behind the dish.  

[drjim]

 

I haven't seen actual research, anecdotal comments on chats, ESPN, etc. 

 

but, there is this:

http://www.sportsonearth.com/article/72512952/major-league-baseball-pitchers-velocity-peaks-at-an-early-age

 

which talks about why teams might be going younger.

 

There are lots of articles about the average age of MLB rosters dropping most of this decade. Why that is, that varies by the researcher. 

 

I certainly understand why teams would desire to go younger, that is a striking graph. I just wonder how much it is actually happening. We certainly have tunnel vision on the Twins with not enough context from other teams.

 

I have a suspicion that the idea of players debuting younger and younger  is something that is being repeated (because it is desirable) but isn't actually happening. And it is getting repeated enough, popping up in anecdotal stories, and is now being believed as an actual trend.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I certainly understand why teams would desire to go younger, that is a striking graph. I just wonder how much it is actually happening. We certainly have tunnel vision on the Twins with not enough context from other teams.

 

I have a suspicion that the idea of players debuting younger and younger  is something that is being repeated (because it is desirable) but isn't actually happening. And it is getting repeated enough, popping up in anecdotal stories, and is now being believed as an actual trend.

 

could be. It wouldn't be the first time we created a truth that wasn't backed by numbers.

[drjim]

 

could be. It wouldn't be the first time we created a truth that wasn't backed by numbers.

 

Luckily that is limited to sports.

[yarnivek1972]

 

I haven't seen actual research, anecdotal comments on chats, ESPN, etc. 

 

but, there is this:

http://www.sportsonearth.com/article/72512952/major-league-baseball-pitchers-velocity-peaks-at-an-early-age

 

which talks about why teams might be going younger.

 

There are lots of articles about the average age of MLB rosters dropping most of this decade. Why that is, that varies by the researcher. 

Just a hunch that more than one of those researchers speculated that better testing for PEDs is a main reason why teams are getting younger.  Without "help", older players' bodies are simply more apt to break down and simply can't recover and stay in peak physical condition for 162 games.

[lukeduke1980]

 

Not going to be Chargois taking his spot for a while.

Elbow impingement?  That sounds bad

[Mike Sixel]

 

Just a hunch that more than one of those researchers speculated that better testing for PEDs is a main reason why teams are getting younger.  Without "help", older players' bodies are simply more apt to break down and simply can't recover and stay in peak physical condition for 162 games.

 

that is in at least 2 of the articles, yes.

 

Also, cost, as Craig points out.

 

Also, data that shows pitchers lose velocity as they age, much earlier than we thought.

 

Also, less old skewl thinking that players need to EARN it thru 4 years of bus trips.

 

Also, better scouting and development.

 

Tons of theories. I don't know if anyone has actually interviewed FOs on this much (or if we should trust their answers).

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

This may not be the last we hear about this. If Chargois' agent has half a brain he's going to file a grievance to get Chargois his MLB service time and pay for his DL stint. He was optioned in March because he pitched poorly. Gee, wonder if his injury might have had something to do with that. Chargois' agent could argue he should have been medically evaluated before being optioned.

 

That sounds like a tough sell.  Alex Meyer almost certainly had a stronger case for service time credit last year, when the Twins optioned him to AAA and he didn't pitch again for several months, but nothing came of it.  (And Meyer's agent is Scott Boras!)

 

Like Meyer, Chargois doesn't really have a track record that you could automatically assume better performance and thus no option, absent injury.  We may suspect that, or have a "hunch", but the burden of proof is generally much higher than that for successful grievances.

 

I certainly wouldn't blame anyone for looking into this case, but I would be pretty surprised if anything came of it.

 

(And while I am sure Chargois would rather get the MLB service time and salary right now, at least he has the silver lining of burning an option year, so 2018 will be his last.  Had he been on the MLB DL, the Twins may have retained the ability to option him in 2019 too.)

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

That's what I read on the interwebs, teams are calling up pitchers earlier, while they are not hurt and throw super hard.

 

Shouldn't be too hard to check on this. One could do some filtering over at Fangraphs by age.

 

With a very simple search, it looks like there was a lull from 1987-1999 where no age-20 or younger pitchers hit 100 IP in a season.  Since then, there have been 9, or roughly one every other season.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2016&month=0&season1=1976&ind=1&team=0&rost=0&age=14,20&filter=&players=0&sort=1,d&page=1_123

 

Of course, there were a bunch right before 1987 too -- Gooden, Saberhagen, and Valenzuela most notably.

 

Perhaps there was a lull in the 1990s where teams were being cautious with young pitchers because player compensation was exploding, but they were still not fully understanding aging curves?

[tarheeltwinsfan]

 

Chargois/Burdi/Melotakis aren't quite there, but they're close.

I have never understood the claim that there is something so mentally or emotionally challenging about pitching. If a pitcher has a smart and hardworking catcher, who will study the other teams' lineups and strengths and weaknesses, and if the pitcher has enough sense to throw the pitches called by the catcher at the location called by the catcher and has the skill to hit the location indicated most of the time, and if the pitcher has pitches which are fast and which have excellent movement, then a pitcher doesn't need to think. Just throw the pitches where and how, this smart catcher says. Pitching is not rocket science. Just mix up your pitches and be aware of the game situation and the weaknesses and strengths of your opponents and be able to put your pitches where you want them to go doesn't take a physics degree from Harvard.

[yarnivek1972]

 

Shouldn't be too hard to check on this. One could do some filtering over at Fangraphs by age.

 

With a very simple search, it looks like there was a lull from 1987-1999 where no age-20 or younger pitchers hit 100 IP in a season.  Since then, there have been 9, or roughly one every other season.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2016&month=0&season1=1976&ind=1&team=0&rost=0&age=14,20&filter=&players=0&sort=1,d&page=1_123

 

Of course, there were a bunch right before 1987 too -- Gooden, Saberhagen, and Valenzuela most notably.

 

Perhaps there was a lull in the 1990s where teams were being cautious with young pitchers because player compensation was exploding, but they were still not fully understanding aging curves?

Pretty much coincides with the steroid and PED era.  

[drjim]

I have never understood the claim that there is something so mentally or emotionally challenging about pitching. If a pitcher has a smart and hardworking catcher, who will study the other teams' lineups and strengths and weaknesses, and if the pitcher has enough sense to throw the pitches called by the catcher at the location called by the catcher and has the skill to hit the location indicated most of the time, and if the pitcher has pitches which are fast and which have excellent movement, then a pitcher doesn't need to think. Just throw the pitches where and how, this smart catcher says. Pitching is not rocket science. Just mix up your pitches and be aware of the game situation and the weaknesses and strengths of your opponents and be able to put your pitches where you want them to go doesn't take a physics degree from Harvard.

Those three have physical concerns more than mental or emotional. I don't think it's quite as easy as you suggest, but I'm skeptical of references to mental side holding people back too, especially when they have talent.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Sure, there are always guys who do that, for decades. I'm not especially interested in outliers, more curious about broader trends.

My point being, I don't think there are any broader trends or patterns as it comes to acquiring good relief pitching.

[Aaron Cross]

Good point there!   "Gibson is a solid starter" is another myth that's been forced down our throats for years.  Same with Trevor May, even when he finishes every year with a 5+ ERA.  

 

We need to remove our Twins Fan Glasses and see things from the outside.  If we do that, it's pretty clear that Tonkin stinks, May underperforms, Gibson is garbage.  I can't think of another team that would want Rogers on their staff.  Duffey at this point is a borderline major leaguer who might find a role in long relief if he improves.  

 

Lots of question marks in a bullpen that appears to be on its way to a heavy workload.  Tonkin will clear waivers.  If he doesn't, good riddance.

 

May would be a solid #2 behind Erv right now had Ryan not put his career in a tailspin in 2015.

[yarnivek1972]

Another issue with the Chargois injury.  If it turns out to be serious (God forbid) and he ends up missing all year, the Twins have a wasted spot on the 40 man roster.  There is no such thing as a 60 day DL for the minors as far as I know.

[Aaron Cross]

When will this organization realize that coddling actually causes more injuries? Seems to me I read somewhere they don't even do long toss anymore in their minor league throwing program. Or if they do it's not the traditional arm strength building long toss. It's an abbreviated coddled version.

[Aaron Cross]

They take every thinkable precaution and they're still ravaged with sore arms and surgeries. Coddling doesn't work. Go old school.

[Aaron Cross]

I don't know how guys like Morris and blyleven can even stand being around the game anymore.

[yarnivek1972]

 

When will this organization realize that coddling actually causes more injuries? Seems to me I read somewhere they don't even do long toss anymore in their minor league throwing program. Or if they do it's not the traditional arm strength building long toss. It's an abbreviated coddled version.

 

 

Jim Kaat always said a guys arm will rust out before it wears out.

[Shaitan]

 

When will this organization realize that coddling actually causes more injuries? 

Have a source on that?

[notoriousgod71]

 

Jim Kaat always said a guys arm will rust out before it wears out.

 

I have never heard a pitcher that pitched from the mid (arbitrarily) the mid-90s and earlier say they wish they had pitched less innings or less often.

 

Even guys that had arm injuries never said that. Tom Glavine said he hurt his arm his first year of rookie ball and thought his career was over but Johnny Sain made him continue pitching and throwing even more than normal and the pain just went away.

 

Just by logic it makes no sense that throwing less would help. If I want to get stronger I don't lift less weights or run a shorter distance.

 

And there's absolutely no evidence that suggests pitch counts or inning restrictions help prevent injuries.

[bighat]

 

May would be a solid #2 behind Erv right now had Ryan not put his career in a tailspin in 2015.

 

And I'd be a solid #2 behind Erv if I'd worked harder on my fastball in 8th grade.  Ifs and buts are candies and nuts, man! 

[jimmer]

 

I don't know how guys like Morris and blyleven can even stand being around the game anymore.

Wouldn't hurt me a bit if they left the game altogether. 

[Jham]

May would be a solid #2 behind Erv right now had Ryan not put his career in a tailspin in 2015.

Of course Big Erv wouldn't even be here if Ryan hasn't taken the risk to sign him...

[Jham]

The human body isn't really built to throw 92 mph sliders. PED era proved players were willing to put their health on the line for a shot at the show. If you don't push your ucl to and past its breaking point, someone else will. More competition and more money being about more injuries.

[howeda7]

The guy's just not good. He's hung on for far too long because of an above average fastball. His fastball has no movement and he can't hold runners to save his life. Awful combination in a reliever. DFA him already. 

[TheLeviathan]

Wish we had room for Drew Storen.....