Article: Cool Heat: Shaggy Is A Closer In Waiting

[D.C Twins]

Chargois at the 72nd pick.....Jay at #6......ugh. (sorry, wrong thread)

[drjim]

He isn't going to make this team. Too bad, it is right in front of him.

[Thrylos]

After his last couple appearances, I'd say that Shaggy needs to spend some time in Rochester to get his command where it needs to be...

[Halsey Hall]

Both Kintzler and Belisle started games today in the minors. Two innings each. Kintzler had a rough time of it I felt.

[David HK]

Well, I'm all for Shaggy getting a shot.  Love all that I hear about his lively fastball, etc; something the Twinks have been sorely missing.  In fact I was licking my chops the last couple-three years about all those young flamethrowers we'd recently drafted, and not a single one of 'em, for reasons of injury or ineffectiveness, have been seen up top so far.  Shaggy was probably #1 on my list of those guys.  

 

Now, I don't have time to follow things on a daily basis, so I don't know what he's working on for this ST, if it's a change, or another pitch for the repertoire, but all I see is him getting hit hard, and having long-ass innings.  (to paraphrase Jim Mora), Closer?  C-c-c-closer?  You kiddin' me?

[goulik]

It's too bad the nickname "Louisiana Lightning" has already been used. How about "Louisiana Hot Sauce"?

  

I like it. Bayou Blaze?

 

Why not call it as we see it

"The Cajun Closer"

[drjim]

And Chargois is optioned.

 

He can work on his closing in Rochester.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

concur.  I think the best answer is to have a bullpen full of good relievers, so that you don't have to worry so much about which one to use when.

 

Since that's difficult, to say the least, you're left with how to use what you have.  And planning for use based on situation is just extremely difficult to pull off.

Yeah, it's hard to predict what will happen in a few innings' time but there are a few things a manager can do to create a more flexible bullpen.

 

For example, it's the sixth inning of a tie game. The bases are loaded with no outs.

 

Call in your best reliever. Just do it. And teach your relievers that those situations will occasionally arise. They're the "eighth inning guy" 90% of the time but when an obviously critical situation arises earlier in the game, they should be ready to get the team out of the jam.

 

Far too often we've seen that kind of sixth inning situation pitched by the "sixth inning guy", which makes zero sense. Deal with the later disaster situations when they arise, if they arise at all. Use your best guys earlier in the game when it makes sense.

 

The manager doesn't need to do that often but there's some wiggle room in there I'd like to see explored more often; the "obviously critical" points of a game we all see unfold once every couple of weeks.

[Mike Sixel]

 

And Chargois is optioned.

He can work on his closing in Rochester.

 

Well then. Eventually they'll add some youth, but clearly not now.

[drjim]

Well then. Eventually they'll add some youth, but clearly not now.

If the youth is going to perform like he did, probably better that they don't add it.

 

His spring is a huge disappointment. The spot was right there and he coughed it up.

[Mike Sixel]

 

If the youth is going to perform like he did, probably better that they don't add it.

His spring is a huge disappointment. The spot was right there and he coughed it up.

 

In specific, I agree. In general, this team is SOL if they refuse to promote youth in principle. Given their talk and actions, I'm still waiting. 

[drjim]

In specific, I agree. In general, this team is SOL if they refuse to promote youth in principle. Given their talk and actions, I'm still waiting.

You mean other than about half the roster?

 

Even the greatest farm system isn't going to fill out significantly more than that.

[Mike Sixel]

 

You mean other than about half the roster?

Even the greatest farm system isn't going to fill out significantly more than that.

 

It should be pretty clear that I said...promote. What young player have they added, that wasn't on the roster? 

 

edit:

Indeed, with Chargois and Berrios probably not on the roster, and JRM probably not, I think they've actually reduced the amount of young players, but we won't know for another week or so.

Edited March 24, 2017 by Mike Sixel

[Willihammer]

Chargois' spring: 8.1 IP, 16H, 2HR, 3 BB, 2HBP, 8 K.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Chargois' spring: 8.1 IP, 16H, 2HR, 3 BB, 2HBP, 8 K.

 

even in a world where stats don't matter, that's just bad. 

[Oldgoat_MN]

 

Chargois' spring: 8.1 IP, 16H, 2HR, 3 BB, 2HBP, 8 K.

So he's got an SO/9 of almost 9? Awesome, but he clearly needs work.

 

No idea how long he'll be down but I suspect we'll see him pretty soon. 

I believe they are looking for him to be the full time closer no later than early next year. If he can establish value they will trade him and expect Tyler Jay to be ready by then.

[Willihammer]

So he's got an SO/9 of almost 9? Awesome, but he clearly needs work.

 

No idea how long he'll be down but I suspect we'll see him pretty soon. 

I believe they are looking for him to be the full time closer no later than early next year. If he can establish value they will trade him and expect Tyler Jay to be ready by then.

http://s2.quickmeme.com/img/e9/e965339ef2f7ec69cd723354f029a41d30c64e75d91374cb6f7900631386feaa.jpg

[drjim]

So he's got an SO/9 of almost 9? Awesome, but he clearly needs work.

 

No idea how long he'll be down but I suspect we'll see him pretty soon.

I believe they are looking for him to be the full time closer no later than early next year. If he can establish value they will trade him and expect Tyler Jay to be ready by then.

I agree, he should be back up relatively quickly, but I'd pump the brakes on the other two points.

[drjim]

 

So he's got an SO/9 of almost 9? Awesome, but he clearly needs work.

 

No idea how long he'll be down but I suspect we'll see him pretty soon.

I believe they are looking for him to be the full time closer no later than early next year. If he can establish value they will trade him and expect Tyler Jay to be ready by then.

http://s2.quickmeme.com/img/e9/e965339ef2f7ec69cd723354f029a41d30c64e75d91374cb6f7900631386feaa.jpg

Have you read the posts on this thread? That was extremely restrained. Edited March 24, 2017 by drjim

[Oldgoat_MN]

 

I agree, he should be back up relatively quickly, but I'd pump the brakes on the other two points.

OK. I'll push them back a year.

[USAFChief]

Yeah, it's hard to predict what will happen in a few innings' time but there are a few things a manager can do to create a more flexible bullpen.

 

For example, it's the sixth inning of a tie game. The bases are loaded with no outs.

 

Call in your best reliever. Just do it. And teach your relievers that those situations will occasionally arise. They're the "eighth inning guy" 90% of the time but when an obviously critical situation arises earlier in the game, they should be ready to get the team out of the jam.

 

Far too often we've seen that kind of sixth inning situation pitched by the "sixth inning guy", which makes zero sense. Deal with the later disaster situations when they arise, if they arise at all. Use your best guys earlier in the game when it makes sense.

 

The manager doesn't need to do that often but there's some wiggle room in there I'd like to see explored more often; the "obviously critical" points of a game we all see unfold once every couple of weeks.

When, in that situation, did you get your best reliever up and Warming?

 

If you waited until it was high leverage to do so, it's too late. So you had to have had your best reliever warming to start the 6th. And you'll need to do the same for each of the next 2 innings too, at which point he's unusable tomorrow.

[Mr. Brooks]

When, in that situation, did you get your best reliever up and Warming?

 

If you waited until it was high leverage to do so, it's too late. So you had to have had your best reliever warming to start the 6th. And you'll need to do the same for each of the next 2 innings too, at which point he's unusable tomorrow.

What if tomorrow is a 12-3 blowout?

I'm not a fan of saving guys for a situation that may never arise.

Win the game that you are in, worry about tomorrow's game tomorrow.

[drjim]

 

When, in that situation, did you get your best reliever up and Warming?

If you waited until it was high leverage to do so, it's too late. So you had to have had your best reliever warming to start the 6th. And you'll need to do the same for each of the next 2 innings too, at which point he's unusable tomorrow.

 

I don't think you can even do that do a reliever except on really rare occasions. Once a reliever gets warm really quickly and isn't used, he can't just sit down and warm up multiple times before coming in. Recipe for injury. He either comes in that inning or starts the next one or isn't going to be available that day and often not the next day either. 

 

That is not a sustainable use of reliever resources. That is why roles develop, either by plan or organically.

[USAFChief]

What if tomorrow is a 12-3 blowout?

I'm not a fan of saving guys for a situation that may never arise.

Win the game that you are in, worry about tomorrow's game tomorrow.

You haven't answered the question. When do you start warming your best reliever? Do you use him if not needed?

[Willihammer]

When, in that situation, did you get your best reliever up and Warming?

 

If you waited until it was high leverage to do so, it's too late. So you had to have had your best reliever warming to start the 6th. And you'll need to do the same for each of the next 2 innings too, at which point he's unusable tomorrow.

I won't speak for Brock but what I'd do is use score as proxy for leverage. Tie game being the highest, +1 next, -1, next, and so on.

 

With a "lineup" for each score. Pressly and Rogers are #1 and 2 respectively in a tie or +1 score. Double barreled warm up with whoever matches up to batter handedness entering first. This is assuming the opponent is a conventional L-R-L-R lineup and not heavily platooned against the starter. In that event keep the opposite handed guy on the bench obviously.

 

In a +/- 3 run game, ie. low leverage, the lineup would be virtually flip flopped. With Belisle or Tonkin first out of the gate.

 

Basically, pitch to the score.

[USAFChief]

I won't speak for Brock but what I'd do is use score as proxy for leverage. Tie game being the highest, +1 next, -1, next, and so on.

 

With a "lineup" for each score. Pressly and Rogers are #1 and 2 respectively in a tie or +1 score. Double barreled warm up with whoever matches up to batter handedness entering first. This is assuming the opponent is a conventional L-R-L-R lineup and not heavily platooned against the starter. In that event keep the opposite handed guy on the bench obviously.

 

In a +/- 3 run game, ie. low leverage, the lineup would be virtually flip flopped. With Belisle or Tonkin first out of the gate.

 

Basically, pitch to the score.

Fair enough, but on Brock's situation, there already was a pitcher in the game, who has now loaded the bases. You'd be bringing in someone mid-inning, so you need time for him to get ready.

[Willihammer]

Fair enough, but on Brock's situation, there already was a pitcher in the game, who has now loaded the bases. You'd be bringing in someone mid-inning, so you need time for him to get ready.

In Brock's scenario you get Pressly up same time as you would otherwise. After the first baserunner gets into scoring position probably.

 

So, if the next batter doesn't load the bases, but hits an RBI double, the score's now -2 but the high leverage guy Pressly's already warming. He pitches, but the lineup changes to -2 until the score changes again.

 

Play the odds. A runner on second base is going to need, on average, 2-3 batters to step to the plate before someone gets a hit. About a quarter of the time the first guy will get him in.

[spinowner]

 

When, in that situation, did you get your best reliever up and Warming?

If you waited until it was high leverage to do so, it's too late. So you had to have had your best reliever warming to start the 6th. And you'll need to do the same for each of the next 2 innings too, at which point he's unusable tomorrow.

After warming three times it's not just tomorrow. He might be unusable for tonight's game too. 

[Willihammer]

http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/18992656/indians-ace-reliever-andrew-miller-end-tyranny-save

 

Related to some of the discussion.

 

 

"I buy into the sabermetric-type best pitcher in the biggest spot of the game," says Cleveland manager Terry Francona. "To me, it's common sense. I also think having common sense in the seventh or eighth inning is not always easy."

...

The biggest difference is predictability. The closer knows when he's coming into the game. He knows when to warm up, when to get himself into an emotional fervor. More important, he knows when he's going to come out of the game.

 

"It's nice to have that finish line," Miller says. "When I get the guy and my mind tells me I'm done -- and I turn around and Tito's not coming to get me? Usually that's a bad situation. My brain has already shut it down. I've definitely gotten better at that situation as I've been used in more flexible ways. But if your brain starts to go in the wrong direction, it's going to be tough to get out of."

...

"The challenge is that you get a guy up early and those situations go away sometimes. It's too easy to say every single situation you want him. But if you get him up in the sixth and it goes away for some reason -- and then you get him up in the seventh, and then in the eighth -- you're going to kill somebody. That was one thing I told him: 'When I get you up, I'll get you in the game.' So people would say, 'You took your starter out when he was going good.' I know that, but I kind of made a deal." If Francona uses Miller for a second inning, he'll usually tell him exactly where the finish line is.

...

"I told our whole bullpen that if we do this enough -- because I think it's right -- it'll backfire a game or two," Francona says. "It has to. I still believe over the course of a lot of games, you're going to be right a lot."

And then the writer reminds readers about the "shutdown" concept introduced by Tom Tango in 2010, defined as an appearance that leads to a 6 percent gain in WPA. He suggests that could replace the save.

[mickeymental]

some kinesiologist like mike marshall needs to devise a safe and efficient way to warm up more quickly. something out of the box like a dyson hair dryer aimed at the arm for 30 seconds, followed by three quick fastballs from 75 feet, a sprint from the bullpen, seven more off the mound and go time. three minutes flat.