Bovada places Twins over-under at 74 1/2 wins...

[Richie the Rally Goat]

1. The left side of the infield was terrible last season, too... Except this season, the outfield should be considerably better.

 

2. It's possible, maybe even likely, the Twins have a bottom three rotation in all of baseball but still improve by five or more wins. They were that bad last season. With Berrios and May, I doubt we see the dumpster fire we saw last season and if we do, the Twins are in real trouble going forward. Hell, you get three league average performances from Berrios, May, and Santana and the Twins vault forward a half dozen wins. Improvement is not difficult to achieve given the bar set last year.

 

3. I don't expect too much improvement from the bullpen, at least in the first half of the season. Hard to predict after that point.

so the improved outfield helps Berrios, May and Santiago but the left side of the infield really hurts Gibson, Kintzler, Duffey.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/MIN/2016-pitching.shtml

 

It seems that ground ball pitchers have lower runs scored per 27 outs and naturally lower FIP, but also have a higher BABIP. So maybe the earned runs are lower, but ground ballers plus bad infielders = more ugly baseball.

 

With a gun to my head, I would bet under

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/groundballs-and-the-overall-picture/

[D.C Twins]

Under....and that is OK.... The new FO will learn a lot about what they have...and more importantly about what they do not.

 

For the overall long term plan, I hope that we can trade Dozier and Santana by the deadline for good prospects while simultaneously locking us into another high draft pick next year.

 

This is not to be negative. This team should be fun to watch develop! 

[Willihammer]

The 74.5 win over/under is just 3 games under the Twins historical mean of 77.5 wins.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_all-time_Major_League_Baseball_win-loss_records

 

The Twins have been rebuilding for 116 years.

[Willihammer]

https://sports.bovada.lv/baseball/mlb-season-props

Personally think the best looking bets are the Braves (over), Houston (under), Brewers (over), Pirates (over), Mariners (under), and Nationals (under).

 

[ScrapTheNickname]

Does anyone have access to a study done on preseason predictions? I am very interested to know the accuracy rates, etc. No one predicted the Twins would win 83 games in 2015, and nobody predicted they would lose 103 games in 2016. The whole prediction system is fraught with looking at the past to predict the future (can't be done). Anyone?

[TheLeviathan]

Under, but that line is well placed.

[Guest]

https://sports.bovada.lv/baseball/mlb-season-props

Personally think the best looking bets are the Braves (over), Houston (under), Brewers (over), Pirates (over), Mariners (under), and Nationals (under).

If Cleveland feasts on its Central opponents at just under 70%, which is roughly 13-6 apiece, and wins 50% of its other games, it will win 95 and hit the over. They went 94-67 in 2016. Note that their worst record against a divisional opponent was 10-9 against Kepler and the 59-victory Twins.

[Jham]

Usually when a line looks inviting, Vegas knows something.  74 seems to invite a bet on the under.  Logically, they know something.  Someone must be taking the over.  And the overs must be betting more than the unders, since there seems to be so many more unders....  Which scares me from the under...  Cuz what do the over-betters know that make them quieter and more confident?

 

That said, I don't think Buxton is fixed.  He still strikes out like crazy.  I don't think Sano is fixed and I doubt he fields well.  If Kepler has a sophomore slump... I mean, he ended the season on pedestrian run.  I don't know where the pitching will come from.  

And I don't think Molitor was ever the right guy for the job.  Feels like the first year of Epstein in Chicago when they just attempted to evaluate talent and get rid of everyone.  UNDER.

[Platoon]

I would barely take the over. Barley! It's a long haul from 59 to let's say 75. There is no improvement from the pitching staff to speak of, either starters or pen. There is no actual closer at this time. The left side of the IF defensively is "questionable", the right side is defensively slightly above average. And while the projected starting OF should be pretty good, or better, defensively, Molitors dart board lineups virtually require one of them to sit daily. If as is very possible RG is the fourth outfielder, that tilts that positive considerably south! While there is an occasional abberation, few baseball teams play .500 bal with a lousy defensive SS and lousy pitching.

[Mr. Brooks]

Does anyone have access to a study done on preseason predictions? I am very interested to know the accuracy rates, etc. No one predicted the Twins would win 83 games in 2015, and nobody predicted they would lose 103 games in 2016. The whole prediction system is fraught with looking at the past to predict the future (can't be done). Anyone?

Vegas lines aren't meant to be "predictions". They are attempts to get even money on each side of the line so that they earn rake regardless of the results.

[markos]

 

1. The left side of the infield was terrible last season, too... Except this season, the outfield should be considerably better.

 

2. It's possible, maybe even likely, the Twins have a bottom three rotation in all of baseball but still improve by five or more wins. They were that bad last season. With Berrios and May, I doubt we see the dumpster fire we saw last season and if we do, the Twins are in real trouble going forward. Hell, you get three league average performances from Berrios, May, and Santana and the Twins vault forward a half dozen wins. Improvement is not difficult to achieve given the bar set last year.

 

3. I don't expect too much improvement from the bullpen, at least in the first half of the season. Hard to predict after that point.

Key point here. I know we've all gotten pretty numb to bad pitching during this decade, but last year's squad was 60 runs worse than any of the 2011-2014 seasons. They could shave off 100 runs this year and still be one of the 5 worst teams in baseball in terms of runs allowed.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Key point here. I know we've all gotten pretty numb to bad pitching during this decade, but last year's squad was 60 runs worse than any of the 2011-2014 seasons. They could shave off 100 runs this year and still be one of the 5 worst teams in baseball in terms of runs allowed.

Yep, that's kinda my point. Ten runs is worth roughly one win, IIRC. The Twins could revert to 2014 pitching levels and still slide into the low 70s in wins, provided the offense repeats their numbers from 2016.

 

If you expect offensive/defensive/pitching progression past that point, they could settle somewhere in the mid-70s wins. There's a reason why most betting lines are starting in the low- to mid-70s while projection systems have the team as high as 80 wins.

 

I don't buy the 80 win number but 74-ish wins is pretty easy to see with this roster.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I would barely take the over. Barley!

Here you go!

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Does anyone have access to a study done on preseason predictions? I am very interested to know the accuracy rates, etc. No one predicted the Twins would win 83 games in 2015, and nobody predicted they would lose 103 games in 2016. The whole prediction system is fraught with looking at the past to predict the future (can't be done). Anyone?

In addition to this being a Vegas line rather than a prediction, it's also worth noting that few people try to project/predict outliers, at least not in a systematic way (i.e. projecting win totals for all 30 teams, rather than an isolated prediction like "the Padres will lose 105 games this year").  Very, very few teams will ever get projected or predicted to lose 103 games, but that doesn't mean projections/predictions are inherently bad/incorrect/worthless.

 

I'd probably judge them more on general contention/non-contention buckets -- i.e. if the Twins are projected to finish with the 3rd worst record in the league, well out of contention, and they actually finish with the worst record in the league, well out of contention, I don't think that's a failure of the projection system, even if their projected win total was, say, 70 and their actual win total was 59.

[ashbury]

 

Here you go!

I was thinking he would prefer his barley in this form:

 

http://protzonbeer.co.uk/uploaded-images/chunks/dc38996d-da62-4fab-8316-7fb2a1c14e78-600.jpg

[Doomtints]

Even if the Twins get better, the AL Central isn't what it used to be. The Twins don't just have to improve by Twins standards, they need to be better than a bunch of other teams that are now quite good.

 

Don't bet on the changes the Twins made moving the needle all that much yet.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Even if the Twins get better, the AL Central isn't what it used to be. The Twins don't just have to improve by Twins standards, they need to be better than a bunch of other teams that are now quite good.

 

Don't bet on the changes the Twins made moving the needle all that much yet.

 

Fangraphs ranks the Central as the worst division by far. The White Sox are in rebuild mode, and Kc isn't getting better. Cleveland is, but they already were the best team there. Detroit will see what happens at the ASB in terms of adding or deleting players.

[Doomtints]

 

Fangraphs ranks the Central as the worst division by far. The White Sox are in rebuild mode, and Kc isn't getting better. Cleveland is, but they already were the best team there. Detroit will see what happens at the ASB in terms of adding or deleting players.

 

Yep, I'm aware of that. Do you believe it? The division was supposed to be a tire fire last year too. It wasn't.

[alarp33]

 

Yep, I'm aware of that. Do you believe it? The division was supposed to be a tire fire last year too. It wasn't.

 

The Division last year was the 2nd worst out of 6. 

 

And as Mike said, Chicago has gone into full rebuild mode and KC has gotten worse. 

[Mike Sixel]

 

The Division last year was the 2nd worst out of 6. 

 

And as Mike said, Chicago has gone into full rebuild mode and KC has gotten worse. 

 

Facts. Facts. Facts. Stop it with your facts.

[Doomtints]

 

The Division last year was the 2nd worst out of 6. 

 

And as Mike said, Chicago has gone into full rebuild mode and KC has gotten worse. 

 

Figures that someone would want to go to war over that.

 

I believe it was me who said that the White Sox and Royals are predicted to be worse. But who cares about predictions, do you think those two teams will be better than the Twins?

 

Last year, every NL division had 2 teams over .500 and 3 teams under .500. Remove the top 3 teams from the league and the NL overall record was under .500. The NL was not competitive.  

 

The AL Central had 2 teams under .500. The White Sox would have had a record over .500 had they played at least .500 against the division. The division exceeded expectations. The AL East was dominating as it usually is (that's where most of the capital is in the AL, after all) and the AL West was less competitive than usual. If not for the Twins, the West and Central would have had identical profiles.

 

Silly thing to argue, btw.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Yep, I'm aware of that. Do you believe it? The division was supposed to be a tire fire last year too. It wasn't.

Who thought the division was going to be a tire fire last season? KC was coming off a WS victory and Cleveland had a talented young roster, particularly pitchers. The rest of the division was iffy but if 40% of the division is promising, it won't be a tire fire.

[alarp33]

 

 

 

Silly thing to argue, btw.

 

I'm not arguing anything.  I was presenting a fact

[USAFChief]

Figures that someone would want to go to war over that.

 

I believe it was me who said that the White Sox and Royals are predicted to be worse. But who cares about predictions, do you think those two teams will be better than the Twins?

 

Last year, every NL division had 2 teams over .500 and 3 teams under .500. Remove the top 3 teams from the league and the NL overall record was under .500. The NL was not competitive.

 

The AL Central had 2 teams under .500. The White Sox would have had a record over .500 had they played at least .500 against the division. The division exceeded expectations. The AL East was dominating as it usually is (that's where most of the capital is in the AL, after all) and the AL West was less competitive than usual. If not for the Twins, the West and Central would have had identical profiles.

 

Silly thing to argue, btw.

Concur. Silly to argue. Just admit your initial statement about the AL Central was inaccurate and move on.

[Vanimal46]

 

Who thought the division was going to be a tire fire last season? KC was coming off a WS victory and Cleveland had a talented young roster, particularly pitchers. The rest of the division was iffy but if 40% of the division is promising, it won't be a tire fire.

 

Right. And, I know we've wanted to write off Detroit for 5 consecutive seasons, but they were competitive too. IIRC the AL West was supposed to be the tire fire last season and Houston was supposed to cruise to an easy division title. 

[Pius Jefferson]

I'll take the under.

 

Honestly, I don't think it would be the worst thing in the world top get another top 5 pick.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Honestly, I don't think it would be the worst thing in the world top get another top 5 pick.

It kinda would, actually. It means most of Kepler, Sano, Buxton, Rosario, Berrios, et al have failed to turn into productive MLB players.

[Otto von Ballpark]

It kinda would, actually. It means most of Kepler, Sano, Buxton, Rosario, Berrios, et al have failed to turn into productive MLB players.

Not necessarily. I could see a bottom 5 record in 2017, but 3 of the 5 guys you named being productive players (especially considering one -- Berrios -- is unlikely to spend the full season in MLB). Plenty of other points of potential failure on this club, especially the pitching staff.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Not necessarily. I could see a bottom 5 record in 2017, but 3 of the 5 guys you named being productive players (especially considering one -- Berrios -- is unlikely to spend the full season in MLB). Plenty of other points of potential failure on this club, especially the pitching staff.

Sure, but if three of those guys are playing to their potential, it's tough to see a bottom five finish again, even with this pitching staff.

 

It means most of those players turn out to be mediocre, not the stars we hoped a few of them would become.

 

And that's not even bringing up some of the other guys like May and Gibson. Sure, their ceilings aren't sky-high but if they're terrible, that's a blow to the team going forward.

 

This is one of the youngest rosters in baseball. It's a knock to the franchise if they finish in the cellar again. None of their players are rookies at this point, they need to progress.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Bottom 5 isn't necessarily that bad either. Twins were bottom 5 in 2014 with 70 wins.