FanGraphs: Top 24 Twins Prospects

[Seth Stohs]

FanGraphs today post their top 24 Twins prospects rankings.

 

Lots that I would disagree with, but it's a fun list, and it contains some interesting charts about likelihood for success and more names. 

 

Check it out here:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/top-24-prospects-minnesota-twins/

 

[markos]

Out of curiosity, what are some things you disagree with?

[Willihammer]

Spin rate notes were interesting. Maybe we have a LH version of Dan Haren or Jared Weaver with Gonsalves?

[Mr. Brooks]

Vielma: "punchless leatherwizard"!

 

I love that description.

[d-mac]

This is a well researched and in-depth top-prospect feature that Fangraphs is running, they've really expanded their coverage significantly in this area over the last few years.

 

I think this is a pretty fair analysis of the current state of the Twins' minor league system, deep with lots of back-end starters, relievers, and fringy positional players with very little upside on either side of the ball. All things considered, a fairly average system. Which makes it even more paramount that the new FO get some young talent in return for Dozier and Ervin. There isn't a lot to supplement the current core of young positional players with down on the farm. 

[mikelink45]

I would love to see a chart with your top picks and where they rank with all the other lists that you are sharing. 

[jimmer]

This is well done and well researched.  This farm system is suspect, as are the prospects we've promoted recently.

 

'The system is more interesting than it is good or deep and whomever the Twins draft No. 1 overall next year will instantly become their top prospect.'

[Thrylos]

 

Vielma: "punchless leatherwizard"!

I love that description.

 

And, of course, highly inaccurate to describe someone who hit .338/.407/.416 against LHP this season.

[Thrylos]

Got to love it when they have a 2017 ETA for a guy who played in the majors in 2016...  (make that 2 actually, and one of them was in the majors for more than a month...)

 

Lots of kool-aid bias towards recent first round draft picks.  Wonder if the author has seen any of the people he writes about play...

 

[Mr. Brooks]

And, of course, highly inaccurate to describe someone who hit .338/.407/.416 against LHP this season.

That SLG is barely higher than the OBP so it sounds accurate to me.

[jimmer]

Every time a Fangraphs prospect guy talks about Twins players, and they are less than enthusiastic, questions arise about whether or not they've even seen the players play or whatever.  As if they just write whatever pops into their head. The last guy was so iffy he got hired by a major league front office (as did the guy before).  At some point, people are going to have to come to grips that these people are serious about their work and are professionals as much as some of the more established sites that seem to be taken as gospel.

 

Anyway, first part of the story says,

 

'Below is an analysis of the prospects in the Minnesota Twins farm system. Scouting reports are compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as from my own observations. The KATOH statistical projections, probable-outcome graphs, and (further down) Mahalanobis comps have been provided by Chris Mitchell. For more information on the 20-80 scouting scale by which all of my prospect content is governed you can click here. For further explanation of the merits and drawbacks of Future Value, read this. -Eric Longenhagen'

[markos]

 

I think this is a pretty fair analysis of the current state of the Twins' minor league system, deep with lots of back-end starters, relievers, and fringy positional players with very little upside on either side of the ball. All things considered, a fairly average system. Which makes it even more paramount that the new FO get some young talent in return for Dozier and Ervin. There isn't a lot to supplement the current core of young positional players with down on the farm. 

Yeah, it definitely hurts to have missed with Stewart and Jay. In the short term, the core is Buxton-Sano-Kepler-Berrios-Gonsalves. If they don't start to perform like above-average players, the new regime will almost have to start over.

[Thrylos]

 

Every time a Fangraphs prospect guy talks about Twins players, and they are less than enthusiastic, questions arise about whether or not they've even seen the players play or whatever.  As if they just write whatever pops into their head. The last guy was so iffy he got hired by a major league front office (as did the guy before).  At some point, people are going to have to come to grips that these people are serious about their work and are professionals as much as some of the more established sites that seem to be taken as gospel.

 

My criticism is not comparing them to the other "established" sites (that have not seen people play either.)

 

Nobody who have seen Diaz and Kiriloff play the last year, and knows what they are doing and are not biased, would had rank them at those relative positions.

 

Just sayin'

[Rosterman]

Well, I guess we shouldn't feel bad about some guys being open to the Rule 5 draft.

 

[Lefty74]

Every time a Fangraphs prospect guy talks about Twins players, and they are less than enthusiastic, questions arise about whether or not they've even seen the players play or whatever.  As if they just write whatever pops into their head. The last guy was so iffy he got hired by a major league front office (as did the guy before).  At some point, people are going to have to come to grips that these people are serious about their work and are professionals as much as some of the more established sites that seem to be taken as gospel.

 

Anyway, first part of the story says,

 

'Below is an analysis of the prospects in the Minnesota Twins farm system. Scouting reports are compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as from my own observations. The KATOH statistical projections, probable-outcome graphs, and (further down) Mahalanobis comps have been provided by Chris Mitchell. For more information on the 20-80 scouting scale by which all of my prospect content is governed you can click here. For further explanation of the merits and drawbacks of Future Value, read this. -Eric Longenhagen'

Couldn't agree more. These people have no reason to show bias against the Twins. They see all the teams prospects and evaluate them based upon stats and evaluations done by many professional scouts. We should be worried! Hardly any big game changers in the the group. More than ever we need to count on Buxton, Sano, Berrios to become stars quickly or we are in for a long road back.

[PseudoSABR]

Let's hope the new organizational pitching philosophy pays dividends with Jay, Stewart, Gonsalves, and Romero among others.  Even though these guys have reached the upper minors, they are young enough to benefit from a new development philosophy.

[d-mac]

 

Yeah, it definitely hurts to have missed with Stewart and Jay. In the short term, the core is Buxton-Sano-Kepler-Berrios-Gonsalves. If they don't start to perform like above-average players, the new regime will almost have to start over.

 

I wouldn't call Jay a miss yet, but I was definitely against that pick when they made it. And Stewart is the definition of a bust. And I'm not super high on Gordon for that matter, I worry that he's going to be a .260/.310/.340 hitter at SS with below average defense. Frankly, I'd put Gonsalves, Jay, and Mejia ahead of him in the prospect rankings. 

 

And you're right, if our young core that is already up doesn't improve, or even if we only get two players to establish themselves and the rest bust out, we'd have to blow it up and start over again- there just isn't enough in the system to be a contender. 

[Mike Sixel]

Kind of a "meh" report for a team picking this high lately.....and who traded a starting CF for a prospect. When they picked Gordon....Trea Turner was sitting right there....for example. Let's hope some of the pitchers can step up and be better than projected....

[gunnarthor]

Seems mostly fair.  I think we're a bit overly concerned about the grade - esp for guys far, far away.  But some issues - Gonsalves' stuff for example - has been hinted at before.  He was also higher on Javier than I would have guessed.  The team seems to have depth but not a ton of upside right now.  But it's also important to remember that this is just one guy. We'll see a lot of reviews in the next few months and ideally we look at the rankings as a whole and not just focus on the one really negative or really positive one.  

 

But the Twins have already graduated a big group of players that they expect to be more than just regular guys so it's not surprising that the system is a bit down.  They still have some nice talent and will add more in the June draft and might add more if/when they trade Dozier and/or Santana.  

[Mike Sixel]

 

Seems mostly fair.  I think we're a bit overly concerned about the grade - esp for guys far, far away.  But some issues - Gonsalves' stuff for example - has been hinted at before.  He was also higher on Javier than I would have guessed.  The team seems to have depth but not a ton of upside right now.  But it's also important to remember that this is just one guy. We'll see a lot of reviews in the next few months and ideally we look at the rankings as a whole and not just focus on the one really negative or really positive one.  

 

But the Twins have already graduated a big group of players that they expect to be more than just regular guys so it's not surprising that the system is a bit down.  They still have some nice talent and will add more in the June draft and might add more if/when they trade Dozier and/or Santana.  

 

Sano, Kepler, Polanco....all in the system before they were bad....IMO, the system is lacking in HIGH upside prospects, given their draft position the last 5ish years.

 

They've been picking in the top ten or so 4 of the last 5 drafts. Buxton is it, from the first round picks, isn't he? Shouldn't the system be a bit better? Kohl and Jay, two top 5-6 picks, project as number 4s.....and Gordon has questions about his ability to play SS. 

 

It isn't about post-hoc analysis yet, this is still largely about prospects, and the FV scores seem low, imo, for a team picking this high.

[Badsmerf]

There is a reason Terry Ryan is not the gm any longer. The most troubling aspect is the lack of upside on the mound. Romero and Thorpe could change that with a strong 2017.

[gunnarthor]

 

Sano, Kepler, Polanco....all in the system before they were bad....IMO, the system is lacking in HIGH upside prospects, given their draft position the last 5ish years.

 

They've been picking in the top ten or so 4 of the last 5 drafts. Buxton is it, from the first round picks, isn't he? Shouldn't the system be a bit better? Kohl and Jay, two top 5-6 picks, project as number 4s.....and Gordon has questions about his ability to play SS. 

 

It isn't about post-hoc analysis yet, this is still largely about prospects, and the FV scores seem low, imo, for a team picking this high.

Sure, but you're basing it on one guy right now.  Sickels gave the Twins 5 B+ guys.  I like Gordon a lot, always have and he'll be a top 40-60ish prospect to start the year on most lists.  Stewart was the type of pick every one was demanding the Twins take while forgetting that HS pitching arms are very risky. Look at Kolek, Aiken and Trey Ball.  Would you still be complaining if Stewart was the 4th round pick and Gonsalves was the first round pick?  Stewart is 21 and pitching in AA.  

 

Jay was a riskier upside pick but looking at what was available it wasn't a big miss (I was hoping Tate would drop or we'd draft Cameron so it's a good thing I wasn't drafting) and will still be a top 100 guy on most lists.  So, basically, the Twins had 4 picks in the top 6 or better.  One was an elite prospect who is now in the majors.  Two more are still generally top 100 prospects and the fourth in a HS arm in AA.  I mean, realistically, that's not bad.  Sure, it could be better but when you're only looking at four guys and two are pitchers and three are HS players, you're drafting some risk.  Some of that risk will mean that the upside isn't reached but you're still looking at four players who are all likely to be ML regulars.  

 

[ShouldaCouldaWoulda]

 

This is a well researched and in-depth top-prospect feature that Fangraphs is running, they've really expanded their coverage significantly in this area over the last few years.

 

I think this is a pretty fair analysis of the current state of the Twins' minor league system, deep with lots of back-end starters, relievers, and fringy positional players with very little upside on either side of the ball. All things considered, a fairly average system. Which makes it even more paramount that the new FO get some young talent in return for Dozier and Ervin. There isn't a lot to supplement the current core of young positional players with down on the farm. 

This is what I thought. A lot of guys that appear to be peak as below average at their positions compared to the rest of the league, and backend starters. Even Gordon scares me. Where do you think he would rank at SS in 5-7 years with the glut of awesome SS's around the league in the majors and minors. He might be a good prospect and SS for US, but maybe not so much once you look at what other systems have at SS in the majors of minors. 

 

Would be interesting if you compared Gordon to each teams top SS in the majors or minors and see who you would take.

[ShouldaCouldaWoulda]

 

Couldn't agree more. These people have no reason to show bias against the Twins. They see all the teams prospects and evaluate them based upon stats and evaluations done by many professional scouts. We should be worried! Hardly any big game changers in the the group. More than ever we need to count on Buxton, Sano, Berrios to become stars quickly or we are in for a long road back.

Exactly, they have no self-interest to be biased against any team or player. The only thing they want to be is RIGHT. The more they get right, the more respected they will be. So, I am guessing that they work pretty hard and take being right pretty dang serious.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Sure, but you're basing it on one guy right now.  Sickels gave the Twins 5 B+ guys.  I like Gordon a lot, always have and he'll be a top 40-60ish prospect to start the year on most lists.  Stewart was the type of pick every one was demanding the Twins take while forgetting that HS pitching arms are very risky. Look at Kolek, Aiken and Trey Ball.  Would you still be complaining if Stewart was the 4th round pick and Gonsalves was the first round pick?  Stewart is 21 and pitching in AA.  

 

Jay was a riskier upside pick but looking at what was available it wasn't a big miss (I was hoping Tate would drop or we'd draft Cameron so it's a good thing I wasn't drafting) and will still be a top 100 guy on most lists.  So, basically, the Twins had 4 picks in the top 6 or better.  One was an elite prospect who is now in the majors.  Two more are still generally top 100 prospects and the fourth in a HS arm in AA.  I mean, realistically, that's not bad.  Sure, it could be better but when you're only looking at four guys and two are pitchers and three are HS players, you're drafting some risk.  Some of that risk will mean that the upside isn't reached but you're still looking at four players who are all likely to be ML regulars.  

 

It might not be "bad", but if you can't spend your way out of being bad, you need to be great at drafting and developing....not, "not bad". As I said, it is a pretty "meh" report for team that has been this bad, and traded for a "top prospect".

[Mike Sixel]

I find the Kiriloff ranking interesting, given his tool set, frankly.

[ShouldaCouldaWoulda]

The one thing that helps at least is that we have a lot of young players in the majors, no longer considered prospects. I always thought ranking "just prospects" was silly, as it ignores players younger than some prospects already playing in the majors. Under -25 or 24 system-wide rankings make a whole lot more sense to me.

 

I know that some of our young guys have underperformed in the majors, but Sano, Buxton, Keppler, Berrios, and the lessers all make us a more interesting team with upside. Guessing that Sano, Buxton, and Berrios ALL have better seasons than last year, but Keppler I have doubts will repeat with the power. Needs to be platooned more often. But, I do think we will see a lot more platooning now.

[DocBauer]

A question in regard to pitchers, especially starting pitchers, and I'm really curious if anyone has an answer. It's been my experience over the years that an ACE pitcher, a true #1 guy, is hardly ever just drafted. It's not that simple or easy. (There are some exceptions, of course) It seems more than you draft and develop pitchers...some wash out, some make it...but true top of the rotations are guys that learn and develop over time.

 

When I read things like this about Twins rotation prospects, they are always #3 starters or solid 4's, etc. But really, how often does someone get "projected" as a true top of the rotation starter while still developing in the minors?

[Mike Sixel]

 

A question in regard to pitchers, especially starting pitchers, and I'm really curious if anyone has an answer. It's been my experience over the years that an ACE pitcher, a true #1 guy, is hardly ever just drafted. It's not that simple or easy. (There are some exceptions, of course) It seems more than you draft and develop pitchers...some wash out, some make it...but true top of the rotations are guys that learn and develop over time.

When I read things like this about Twins rotation prospects, they are always #3 starters or solid 4's, etc. But really, how often does someone get "projected" as a true top of the rotation starter while still developing in the minors?

 

Look at the ceiling rating......almost no one is projected as an ACE....the issue is, none of these guys are even 2s or 3s on this rating......

[gunnarthor]

 

A question in regard to pitchers, especially starting pitchers, and I'm really curious if anyone has an answer. It's been my experience over the years that an ACE pitcher, a true #1 guy, is hardly ever just drafted. It's not that simple or easy. (There are some exceptions, of course) It seems more than you draft and develop pitchers...some wash out, some make it...but true top of the rotations are guys that learn and develop over time.

When I read things like this about Twins rotation prospects, they are always #3 starters or solid 4's, etc. But really, how often does someone get "projected" as a true top of the rotation starter while still developing in the minors?

Probably depends on when and who is doing the ranking.  Both Stewart and Berrios have been called aces by various prospect rankings over the years and Jay certainly had #2 projections put on him.  As have Meyer and Thorpe (pre-injury, of course).