Dodgers make inquiry on Dozier

[jimmer]

Again, we are talking about 2 years. Not for the rest of their careers. You can dismiss Kinsler all you want based on his age, but the fact of the matter is his longer track record of success means something. I would guess most in the industry think very highly of Dozier. I would also guess no one in the industry expect him to repeat his 42 home runs.

 

Over the past 2 seasons...

 

Kinsler 12.1 WAR (bWAR)

Dozier 8.9 WAR (bWAR)

 

3.2 WAR over 2 seasons is a margain, however significant you want to believe that is.

 

Also, I think its pretty clear Kinsler is the better defensive 2B

If the Dodgers can get Dozier without giving up Bellinger, thats better for them than getting Kinsler and having to give to Bellinger.

 

And thats even before you take into account age and price of the two players.

 

Kinsler is the bigger name, so he may cost more, but Dozier is the better value and has a better chance being a better player going forward.

[alarp33]

 

If the Dodgers can get Dozier without giving up Bellinger, thats better for them than getting Kinsler and having to give to Bellinger.

And thats even before you take into account age and price of the two players.

Kinsler is the bigger name, so he may cost more, but Dozier is the better value and has a better chance being a better player going forward.

 

Sure, if they can give up less for Dozier than they would have to for Kinsler, I would definitely be behind that if I were a Dodgers decision maker or fan.  

 

I'm not really taking into account age because I don't think its all that significant for the next 2 years.

 

Dozier does have a chance at being a better player going forward.  

 

Again - I was merely responding as reasons the Dodgers may value Kinsler more.  Personally, I think its very close... I was making a Kinsler argument because everyone else here completely dismissed him 

[Thrylos]

For those things, I tend to look at the other side and neutral blogs to see what they feel might be a fair trade (and the truth is really some place in the middle.)  Here we go:

 

Trading for the 29 year old will definitely require some top prospects from the Dodgers’ farm system.
- dodgersnation.com

 

I’m thinking at a minimum, the Twins ask for a package featuring somebody of the caliber of  De León, along with one or two unprovens, like  Willie Calhoun or Alex Verdugo, for example. Even an offering of that degree still might not get the job done
-thinkbluepc.com

 

if the Dodgers are willing to deal some of their high-end prospects a deal may be possible.
isportsweb.com

 

Julio Urias would be an untouchable name if the Twins and Dodgers get serious about a trade for Dozier. Behind him, however, the Dodgers have dozens of top prospects who could draw interest, including Jose De Leon, Walker Buehler, or Jordan Sheffield. The Twins might even be willing to accept a position player given the depth of talent the Dodgers have to offer.
fansided.com

 

So sounds like De Leon plus two is the consensus out there...

[markos]

FWIW, fangraphs is projecting Dozier to be less than 0.5 WAR better than Kinsler in 2017, and PECOTA projects the opposite. Not sure about 2018.

[alarp33]

 

Let's all agree to stop adding Plouffe to deals like it is going to add to the return.  Deal?  

 

If the Dodgers want Plouffe, they will wait until the Twins non-tender him and sign him to a 1 year $3 million deal. 

 

Ask and you shall receive! I didn't even have to ask the same for Adam Brett Walker and that was taken care of as well 

[spanman2]

Not that I want to see Dozier gone but you have to make hay while there is hay to be made.  He will never be a hotter commodity!   Do the right thing for Dozier by putting him on a team that has a chance to win and at the same time sure up the pitching depth on this roster!  We need pitching/pitching and more pitching! 

[Doomtints]

 

For those things, I tend to look at the other side and neutral blogs to see what they feel might be a fair trade (and the truth is really some place in the middle.)  Here we go:

 

Trading for the 29 year old will definitely require some top prospects from the Dodgers’ farm system.
- dodgersnation.com

 

I’m thinking at a minimum, the Twins ask for a package featuring somebody of the caliber of  De León, along with one or two unprovens, like  Willie Calhoun or Alex Verdugo, for example. Even an offering of that degree still might not get the job done
-thinkbluepc.com

 

if the Dodgers are willing to deal some of their high-end prospects a deal may be possible.
isportsweb.com

 

Julio Urias would be an untouchable name if the Twins and Dodgers get serious about a trade for Dozier. Behind him, however, the Dodgers have dozens of top prospects who could draw interest, including Jose De Leon, Walker Buehler, or Jordan Sheffield. The Twins might even be willing to accept a position player given the depth of talent the Dodgers have to offer.
fansided.com

 

So sounds like De Leon plus two is the consensus out there...

 

So the suspicion is that the Dodgers are more willing to spend cash than they are to spend prospects.  Fair enough.  This is might be the wise move for a team that barely missed the world series and wants to stay in contention as long as possible.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I'm not really taking into account age because I don't think its all that significant for the next 2 years.

But that's a pretty risky thing to do when you're talking about the age 36 season of a middle infielder.

 

Whereas Dozier has a pretty solid chance of repeating 4-ish fWAR seasons through 2018 (and a small chance of being better than that), Kinsler's chance of maintaining a 4-ish fWAR for two more seasons is a pretty tall order for a non-elite player who derives a large portion of his value from defense.

 

Sure, he can do it, but I wouldn't bet on it. I'd bet on the opposite happening, actually.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I have a tough time believing that Kintzler would cost more in terms of prospects. He's older and more expensive and has negotiating power with a NTC.  All are significant plusses in Dozier's favor.  I see the Dodgers having a preference to Kintzler b/c they can print money, cut Kintzler if he's a dud, and keep the prospects.... the problem is that statistically speaking, the odds are in Dozier's favor... and given the need at 2B for a lot of contenders, they won't be bidding alone.

[alarp33]

 

 Kinsler's chance of maintaining a 4-ish fWAR for two more seasons is a pretty tall order for a non-elite player who derives a large portion of his value from defense.

 

Sure, he can do it, but I wouldn't bet on it. I'd bet on the opposite happening, actually.

 

This is probably where our disagreement is happening.  A player who has averaged 4.8 bWAR/ season over an 11 year career is certainly elite in my opinion

[Brock Beauchamp]

This is probably where our disagreement is happening. A player who has averaged 4.8 bWAR/ season over an 11 year career is certainly elite in my opinion

That's fair and we're down to semantics at that point. While Kinsler is a very good player, I generally consider "elite" as someone in the 5-7 WAR range, a guy who semi-regularly spikes into MVP territory.

 

Eh, or maybe Kinsler is elite. It's a fine line. If he posts another 2-3 good seasons, he's an outsider for the Hall but he's in the conversation.

[alarp33]

 

That's fair and we're down to semantics at that point. While Kinsler is a very good player, I generally consider "elite" as someone in the 5-7 WAR range, a guy who semi-regularly spikes into MVP territory.

Eh, or maybe Kinsler is elite. It's a fine line. If he posts another 2-3 good seasons, he's an outsider for the Hall but he's in the conversation.

 

He hasn't had the peak that a Chase Utley had, for example... and I agree he's on the outside looking in at the Hall even with a few more good years... but the consistency over 11 years is phenomenal.

 

Which back to my original point, I think you know what you are getting with Kinsler.  With Dozier, I don't think you have any idea - In mid May there were discussions on here about benching or sending down, and he was MVP level for the remainder of season.  

 

Do I think Kinsler will certainly be better than Dozier for the next two years? No way.  Do I think its possible the younger guy with dead pull power is the one more likely to fall off a cliff? Yes

[AlwaysinModeration]

Can you imagine Terry Ryan cutting Plouffe and actively shopping their best sell-high candidate/face of the team, Dozier?

 

It's a new day. I would love to see Dozier get shipped to the Dodgers for a nice package of players. For me, De Leon, Barnes, and either Buehler/Sheffield sounds like a deal. Although I would prefer they sign Jason Castro than count on Barnes.

[markos]

 

 Although I would prefer they sign Jason Castro than count on Barnes.

Done. Who do you want instead of Barnes?

[DaveW]

Dodgers are the best fit

 

Dozier would be a perfect addition to that club.

 

Get Urias and throw in any non pitchers (not named Sano or Buxton) to make it happen. Throw in Rosario plus whoever if you have to.

 

Talk loudly with the Giants and Nationals so the Dodgers hear you.

lol dodgers wouldn't give up urias.

[DaveW]

No need to trade Dozier now, if you aren't blown away hold onto him and trade him at deadline or next off season

[nicksaviking]

According to Buster Olney, the Tigers are asking for the moon in exchange for their players, including Kinsler. Link below but I don't have InSider so I'm just taking the word of MLBTR.

 

http://www.espn.com/blog/buster-olney/insider/post?id=15027

 

If that's true, that's great as my opinion has been that the Dodgers are only more interested in Kinsler than Dozier simply because they would assume the price to acquire him is less. Hopefully the rumors about Kinsler being the preferred target have convinced the Tigers that he is truly a better player than Dozier and they stick to their guns. Maybe I'm biased, but I don't think a reasonable team would rather have Kinsler and I think the Dodgers (and Nationals) are likely reasonable teams.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Supply is the big thing.  You have 2 names and probably 6-8 contending teams where those two names would be a sizable upgrade.  Add to it that one of said 2 names is pretty old for baseball standards. The Twins should get a king's ransom for Dozier.

[magiklair]

Jim Bowden

ESPN Senior Writer

 

Brian Dozier, 2B
Minnesota Twins
2016 WAR: 6.5
Trade likelihood: 45 percent

After taking over the Twins' baseball operations, the first thing Derek Falvey and Thad Levine learned is how many teams had interest in their 42-homer-hitting second baseman. Dozier is in his prime, and the new management realizes he'll likely never have more trade value than he does right now. Minnesota is looking for young starting pitching in return, and Dozier will most likely be the first key player this administration trades to get pitching.

Possible destinations: Dodgers, Braves, Angels, Athletics

[jimmer]

Angels have nothing of interest in their farm system to trade for Dozier.

[jimmer]

Brian: Is Brian Dozier worth a top 10 prospect?

Dave Cameron: Probably not. Say he’s a +3.5 WAR player, so he’s worth something like $30 million a year for the next two years. He’s going to make $15M instead of $60M, so there’s a lot of value there, but top 10 prospects are worth more than $45M.

[USAFChief]

Brian: Is Brian Dozier worth a top 10 prospect?

Dave Cameron: Probably not. Say he’s a +3.5 WAR player, so he’s worth something like $30 million a year for the next two years. He’s going to make $15M instead of $60M, so there’s a lot of value there, but top 10 prospects are worth more than $45M.

Man, I have to give it up to Cameron. Nobody can pull numbers out of their *** like that man.

 

Nobody.

[jimmer]

 

Man, I have to give it up to Cameron. Nobody can pull numbers out of their *** like that man.

Nobody.

I'm sure that's what he's doing.

[gunnarthor]

 

Man, I have to give it up to Cameron. Nobody can pull numbers out of their *** like that man.

Nobody.

I laughed although I agree that Dozier won't get a top 10 guy (although I'd be thrilled if he did). 

[Dr. Evil]

I think a 42 home run second baseman who plays decent defense is a more valuable commodity than some people seem to think. Surround him with hitters better than the Twins have and I imagine that helps his numbers. He jacked 42 in a so so lineup.

[nicksaviking]

Man, Cameron might have to rethink that one after seeing Jean Segura snag Tijuan Walker and Ketel Marte. Or am I the only one who thinks Segura's 2016 was a mirage?

[jimmer]

 

Man, Cameron might have to rethink that one after seeing Jean Segura snag Tijuan Walker and Ketel Marte. Or am I the only one who thinks Segura's 2016 was a mirage?

Walker has a lot of unrealized potential.  It could very well stay that way. Segura may or may not have turned a corner. I am actually intrigued by Haniger, who Seattle is getting.

[The Wise One]

 

Man, Cameron might have to rethink that one after seeing Jean Segura snag Tijuan Walker and Ketel Marte. Or am I the only one who thinks Segura's 2016 was a mirage?

 

Man, Cameron might have to rethink that one after seeing Jean Segura snag Tijuan Walker and Ketel Marte. Or am I the only one who thinks Segura's 2016 was a mirage?

2013 was a decent year. It is odd how quick people forget  that he was well thought of as a prospect,  bypassed AAA, and had an All Star Season (likely everyone else in the Brewers lineup was bad or suspended)

[TheLeviathan]

 

Man, Cameron might have to rethink that one after seeing Jean Segura snag Tijuan Walker and Ketel Marte. Or am I the only one who thinks Segura's 2016 was a mirage?

 

If I'm a D-backs fan I absolutely love this trade.  We'll see how it works out, but it's the kind of trade you should make as a rebuilding team.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

According to Buster Olney, the Tigers are asking for the moon in exchange for their players, including Kinsler. Link below but I don't have InSider so I'm just taking the word of MLBTR.

 

http://www.espn.com/blog/buster-olney/insider/post?id=15027

 

If that's true, that's great as my opinion has been that the Dodgers are only more interested in Kinsler than Dozier simply because they would assume the price to acquire him is less. Hopefully the rumors about Kinsler being the preferred target have convinced the Tigers that he is truly a better player than Dozier and they stick to their guns. Maybe I'm biased, but I don't think a reasonable team would rather have Kinsler and I think the Dodgers (and Nationals) are likely reasonable teams.

Yeesh. I just noticed Kinsler's contract, which is relatively high risk given his age.

 

Play him in 2017, do not pick up option for 2018: $16m ($11m contract, $5m buyout).

 

Play him in both 2017 and 2018: $23m.

 

That's a pretty crappy buyout for the size of that contract.