Setting the framework for a potential Dozier trade

DocBauer · October 29, 2016

Well... The Twins need young MLB-ready arms and probably a catcher, at the 22-24 year range. Or younger. I like what I have seen from Garver this season (and before), so the catcher is secondary.

In addition to Dozier, Santana has to go (both of the Santanas actually, but the other one is just a footnote.)

So, if I were to go to the Dodgers, I'd ask for Jose De Leon, but also would go for the top price, Julio Urias, and would throw both Dozier and Santana in the trade. And if they want Fernardo Romero or Jorge Felix, I'd throw them in.

My thinking is different. It is not what Dozier can bring, but what the Twins need and how they can get it, with their trading chips, including Dozier

Not going to disagree...but in the long run...I still think Romero, and maybe Thorpe, are the two best pitching prospects in the organization overall, despite my faith and belief in Gonsalves. I'd really, really like to keep Romero.

GMinTraining · October 29, 2016

Twins

B. Dozier (2B)

Z. Jones (RHP)

A. Walker (OF)

S. Turner ©

M. Melatokis (LHP)

Brewers

Orlando Arcia (SS)

Brent Suter (LHP)

Wily Peralta (RHP)

Jorge Lopez (RHP)

Brewers are looking to get younger, but also have solid SS in Villar already. Why Dozier deal makes sense: Brewers get quality relief help and quality back up catcher (as they lost Lucroy and probably Maldanado (C)). They also get another power bat in little Miller Park to join Carter and Braun). Taking a chance on Dozier, allows the Brewers to possibly resign him or trade him for more young talent (ala Lucroy).

The deal makes sense for the Twins because they get their SS of the future and can put Polanco back at his natural position at 2B. Arcia's ability to play SS defensively will also complement Sano at 3B. The pitching arms received are all upside arms that could benefit from a new voice and fresh start. There is a find in one of those arms. It allows Twins to trade Gordon or other infielder in the next year or two if Arcia pans out.

kab21 · October 29, 2016

Power hitting RH 2nd baseman, guaranteed 100+ Ks, modest OBP, who makes spectacular defensive plays but comes up bad in advanced metrics and turns 30 next year.

He is cheap.

Unless a team has a huge hole at 2nd and an overload of top 100 prospects....

Best to ride this contract out unless some blows you away with top 100 prospects, which I think highly unlikely. Let Polanco work out at short all winter, and Dozier provides great value at 2nd, and the marketing folks love him.

You talk about advanced metrics in one part and then downplay his value stating 100+ guaranteed K's. This would be the definition of cherry picking.

Dozier has averaged 4 WAR since his 1st full season (last 4 years) and ranks 7th among all MLB 2B during that time. This is not the type of player that you just ride out. He is the type of player that you make sure you get good value for or you very happily keep him.

diehardtwinsfan · October 29, 2016

Dozier is not Donaldson. Not even close. LuCroy plays a premium position with very few premium players. Dozier has a limited market unless the Twins are selling low. If they are not selling low there is no real reason for a rebuilding team to trade for him. Blue Jays, Dodgers, Orioles, Giants and maybe the Angels would be the contending teams that could use a 2b. Yes the Angels are not contending, but do not tell Arte Moreno that. . All it takes is one.

Yankees say hi as well.

Platoon · October 29, 2016

You talk about advanced metrics in one part and then downplay his value stating 100+ guaranteed K's. This would be the definition of cherry picking.

Dozier has averaged 4 WAR since his 1st full season (last 4 years) and ranks 7th among all MLB 2B during that time. This is not the type of player that you just ride out. He is the type of player that you make sure you get good value for or you very happily keep him.

If I keep him, I ride him out. For the simple reason he is going into his thirties as an average glove at second, with a below average arm, and a pull only mentality. That profile ain't gonna get better when he is 33. I look at the idea of trading him thusly: If you can get a .player(s) in our areas of need, trade him, move Polanco over, and deal with the SS issue. You lose nothing by moving Polanco from SS. If you can't trade Dozier now, keep him, puddle along with Polanco at SS, and look for an opportunity to trade Dozier down the road. But paying him at 32-33 for what he did at 29-30 would be yet another TwinsWorld maneuver.

markos · October 29, 2016

With one truly exceptional year, I'm not sure that Dozier is going to market what we hope he would, esp. in a era where there are several high performers at his position. People aren't going to trade the farm for "above average." He needs to show 125+ OPS+ for longer for the Twins to get such a huge haul.

Waiting until the trade deadline in 2017 might be a better idea if the Twins want an epic haul from a trade. Any GM in his right mind is going to show some skepticism around Dozier right now.

These are both very legitimate concerns. I think that Dozier (with his combination of health/perofmance/contract) has similar value to the five guys I listed. But that definitely isn't the consensus. If Dozier isn't part of this top tier, do you have any trade example for second tier players? I haven't looked closely. Off the top of my head I might include Neil Walker and Howie Kendrick. Others?

Regarding waiting until the deadline, I'm not sure the reward outweighs the risks: Dozier could regress or get injured, the pool of buyers will potentially be smaller, and in general team will be receiving only 66% of team control than they would get if they traded for him right now.

markos · October 29, 2016

Well... The Twins need young MLB-ready arms and probably a catcher, at the 22-24 year range. Or younger. I like what I have seen from Garver this season (and before), so the catcher is secondary.

In addition to Dozier, Santana has to go (both of the Santanas actually, but the other one is just a footnote.)

So, if I were to go to the Dodgers, I'd ask for Jose De Leon, but also would go for the top price, Julio Urias, and would throw both Dozier and Santana in the trade. And if they want Fernardo Romero or Jorge Felix, I'd throw them in.

My thinking is different. It is not what Dozier can bring, but what the Twins need and how they can get it, with their trading chips, including Dozier

I don't think this makes much sense for the Dodgers. Their financial resources allow them to get average players (like Santana) almost at will in FA, so I don't see how a guy like Santana adds much to any trade. Or Felix for that matter. What they need are All-Star level players and elite prospects. Now that isn't necessarily the case for other teams, but the Dodgers are unique in that regard.

markos · October 29, 2016

I don't think Urias is a possibility. I think if the dodgers want Chris Sale, Urias is the option there. But I'd be ok with Ervin and Dozier in the same deal, but I would need a Bellinger or someone else in their top 4 back as well.
As far as catcher options, this is off topic for this thread, but I would talk to the Yankees about Brian McCann. But Austin Barnes could be a good long term piece as well

I don't think a Dozier/Santana combo makes much sense for the Dodgers, but I do think it makes a lot of sense for other teams, especially if the goal is to get MLB-ready pitching back.

markos · October 29, 2016

Yankees say hi as well.

If I'm the Twins FO, I'm call the Royals and Mets as well.

olivia11 · October 29, 2016

5 Potential Dozier Trades

#1 Dodgers

Dozier to LAD for

-Jose De Leon (RHP): #32/100 prospect, #2 in organization. Profiles as a #2. Like adding another Berrios to the roster? Will start MLB or AAA in 2017.

-Yadier Alvarez (RHP): #93/100 prospect, #5 in organization. Profiles as frontline starter. Will start in A+ or AA in 2017.

#2 Yankees

Dozier to NYY for

-Luis Severino (RHP): former top prospect; 22 years old; 4.46 ERA in 22 GS in MLB. Would start MLB in 2017.

-Jordan Montgomery (LHP): #19 prospect in organization, profiles back of rotation starter, will start AAA or MLB in 2017.

#3 Mets

Dozier to NYM for

-Steven Matz (LHP); 3.16 career ERA in 28 mlb starts. Mets can afford to give up a young starter.

#4 Pirates

Dozier to PIT for

-Tyler Glasnow (RHP); #8/100 prospect, #1 in organization, profiles as a #1 or #2 starter. Will start 2017 in AAA or MLB.

#5 Pirates

(if not willing to trade Glasnow)

-Nick Kingham (RHP); #8 in organization; profiles as a #3 or #4 starter; will start 2017 in MLB or AAA.

-Elias Diaz ©; #7 in organization; floor is backup catcher, ceiling a solid starter; will start 2017 in A ball.

-Mitch Keller (RHP); #72/100 overall; #5 in organization; profiles as mid-rotation starter; will start 2017 at high A or AA.

I think with a Dozier trade you need to get as many of the following things back in return:

1) a SP who can help immediately

2) a SP who can help longterm (ideally this also covers #1)

3) any catching prospect - at least depth & might work out

4) depth SP prospects (profiles as #4 or #5 starter)

Would you pull the trigger on these trades? Which ones?

jorgenswest · October 29, 2016

Very well thought out post. Thank you.

The comps represent a reasonable ceiling for Dozier. Given that CF and C are more premium positions, the Heyward deal is probably the best of the comps. They absolutely should be looking for a team control 24-25 year old pitcher with some successful major league experience in return.

It will be hard to find a match though. De Leon doesn't have a major league track record but is ready. If the Dodgers offered him alone for Dozier I would have a hard time turning it down. I wouldn't spend too much time trying to squeeze out a prospect and have them find another solution for 2B. They need to take the best young pitcher major league ready pitcher offered rather than fight for a package of younger players.

kab21 · October 29, 2016

If I keep him, I ride him out. For the simple reason he is going into his thirties as an average glove at second, with a below average arm, and a pull only mentality. That profile ain't gonna get better when he is 33. I look at the idea of trading him thusly: If you can get a .player(s) in our areas of need, trade him, move Polanco over, and deal with the SS issue. You lose nothing by moving Polanco from SS. If you can't trade Dozier now, keep him, puddle along with Polanco at SS, and look for an opportunity to trade Dozier down the road. But paying him at 32-33 for what he did at 29-30 would be yet another TwinsWorld maneuver.

Why are we talking about age 32-33? He is on a two year contract and nobody is talking about an extension.

I think it has been virtually unanimous to look at dealing him. Nobody is arguing that.

Mike Sixel · October 29, 2016

I would hate that Yankee trade.

I do feel that for this team to compete in the next 2-3 years, they need to trade Dozier for a good pitcher or two. I think he could play second, first, our dh. Maybe even the OF.

If they keep gin and Santana, I have no idea how things get fixed in less than three plus years.

nytwinsfan · October 29, 2016

5 Potential Dozier Trades

#1 Dodgers
Dozier to LAD for
-Jose De Leon (RHP): #32/100 prospect, #2 in organization. Profiles as a #2. Like adding another Berrios to the roster? Will start MLB or AAA in 2017.
-Yadier Alvarez (RHP): #93/100 prospect, #5 in organization. Profiles as frontline starter. Will start in A+ or AA in 2017.

#2 Yankees
Dozier to NYY for
-Luis Severino (RHP): former top prospect; 22 years old; 4.46 ERA in 22 GS in MLB. Would start MLB in 2017.
-Jordan Montgomery (LHP): #19 prospect in organization, profiles back of rotation starter, will start AAA or MLB in 2017.

#3 Mets
Dozier to NYM for
-Steven Matz (LHP); 3.16 career ERA in 28 mlb starts. Mets can afford to give up a young starter.

#4 Pirates
Dozier to PIT for
-Tyler Glasnow (RHP); #8/100 prospect, #1 in organization, profiles as a #1 or #2 starter. Will start 2017 in AAA or MLB.

#5 Pirates
(if not willing to trade Glasnow)
-Nick Kingham (RHP); #8 in organization; profiles as a #3 or #4 starter; will start 2017 in MLB or AAA.
-Elias Diaz ©; #7 in organization; floor is backup catcher, ceiling a solid starter; will start 2017 in A ball.
-Mitch Keller (RHP); #72/100 overall; #5 in organization; profiles as mid-rotation starter; will start 2017 at high A or AA.

I think with a Dozier trade you need to get as many of the following things back in return:
1) a SP who can help immediately
2) a SP who can help longterm (ideally this also covers #1)
3) any catching prospect - at least depth & might work out
4) depth SP prospects (profiles as #4 or #5 starter)

Would you pull the trigger on these trades? Which ones?

I'd be happy with #1 or #4, no way on #2 and #5, and close on #3, but probably need something a little more.

old nurse · October 29, 2016

Yankees say hi as well.

Starlin Castro with 3 years left on his contract says hello

operation mindcrime · October 29, 2016

Like who? What would you add?

Clayton Kershaw and Corey Seager!!!

\m/

Eris · October 29, 2016

I think people are seriously over valuing Brian Dozier's trade value. A good comparison to Dozier is Neil Walker of the Mets. They have similar defensive stats and are offensive first second baseman. Walker is 2 years older. Walker was traded with one year left on his contract for Jonathan Niese with 2 years left on his contract. Niese was about a 2.0 -2.5 WAR pitcher coming off a down year in 2015 (0.9 WAR). I was looking through fangraphs for a similar Twins pitcher and Ricky Nolasco appears to be a close comparison (0.7 WAR last year, 1.0 WAR in 2014, better in previous years, 2.5 WAR this year).

Would you trade 1 year of Brian Dozier for 2 years of Ricky Nolasco? I think most people on this board would say "absolutely not." I also think that the Twins tried to trade Dozier at the deadline while he was in the middle of one of his career best hot streaks and did not like the offers they were receiving. Part of this can also be attributed to no play-off contenders needing a significant upgrade at 2B. That Dozier is a very streaky hitter significantly diminishes his value.

Another comparision although not the best because of age and salary considerations is Chase Utley to the Dodgers for righty John Richy and super utilityman Darnell Sweeney, neither of whom will be anything above replacement level players. A Dozier trade should net more value.

Another trade that might be a good comparision is Ian Kinsler for Prince Fielder. Texas traded at good 2B for a power mashing 1B who was a defensive liability. Fielder was 2 years younger at the time of the trade. Comparisons here would be trading Dozier for slightly younger versions of Jose Abreu or Carlos Santana. (Note I am only looking at the data at the time of the trade. Fielder was injured after the trade and has been an extreme disappointment with the Rangers).

diehardtwinsfan · October 29, 2016

5 Potential Dozier Trades

#1 Dodgers
Dozier to LAD for
-Jose De Leon (RHP): #32/100 prospect, #2 in organization. Profiles as a #2. Like adding another Berrios to the roster? Will start MLB or AAA in 2017.
-Yadier Alvarez (RHP): #93/100 prospect, #5 in organization. Profiles as frontline starter. Will start in A+ or AA in 2017.

#2 Yankees
Dozier to NYY for
-Luis Severino (RHP): former top prospect; 22 years old; 4.46 ERA in 22 GS in MLB. Would start MLB in 2017.
-Jordan Montgomery (LHP): #19 prospect in organization, profiles back of rotation starter, will start AAA or MLB in 2017.

#3 Mets
Dozier to NYM for
-Steven Matz (LHP); 3.16 career ERA in 28 mlb starts. Mets can afford to give up a young starter.

#4 Pirates
Dozier to PIT for
-Tyler Glasnow (RHP); #8/100 prospect, #1 in organization, profiles as a #1 or #2 starter. Will start 2017 in AAA or MLB.

#5 Pirates
(if not willing to trade Glasnow)
-Nick Kingham (RHP); #8 in organization; profiles as a #3 or #4 starter; will start 2017 in MLB or AAA.
-Elias Diaz ©; #7 in organization; floor is backup catcher, ceiling a solid starter; will start 2017 in A ball.
-Mitch Keller (RHP); #72/100 overall; #5 in organization; profiles as mid-rotation starter; will start 2017 at high A or AA.

I think with a Dozier trade you need to get as many of the following things back in return:
1) a SP who can help immediately
2) a SP who can help longterm (ideally this also covers #1)
3) any catching prospect - at least depth & might work out
4) depth SP prospects (profiles as #4 or #5 starter)

Would you pull the trigger on these trades? Which ones?

3 and 4 are good starting places, but I think you get a bit more than that for Dozier. Maybe not much more, but I think you do. I'd pass on 5. If I'm talking Pirates, Glasnow is the main piece. 2 is pretty bad. No way that gets done. Problem with the Yankees if that what they have to offer is some pretty high end pitching that will be starting in AA. That's not the best fit in terms of need, but if you walk away with Justus Sheffield, another one of their A+ arms, and some change, then I think you did OK. Both are top 100 guys.

If all these are on the table and those are final offers, I do number 1 and don't look back.

Thrylos · October 29, 2016

Thrylos, I keep thinking Ervin is a great fit for the Rangers instead. What do you see there? You think the dodgers would want Santana too?

I think that the Yankees are also quite a fit for both. They do need pitching and they do need an upgrade at the OF and Castro would make a perfect corner outfielder for them.

The Rangers are not a good fit for Dozier for sure, since they have a 22 year old second baseman on the verge of being a star.

I cannot think of many teams who are planning to compete that E. Santana is not a good fit for. Even teams that are supposedly "loaded" with pitching, like the Indians and Mets.

Hard to tell, but I think that the Twins for once should change their attitude and instead of selling players to the highest bidder, identify players in other organizations as targets and package the appropriate assets (including MLB veterans and non-core prospects) to get them...

Thrylos · October 29, 2016

I think people are seriously over valuing Brian Dozier's trade value. A good comparison to Dozier is Neil Walker of the Mets. They have similar defensive stats and are offensive first second baseman.

Actually that is a pretty horrible comparable. At the time of his trade, Walker hit .269/.328/.427 season with 16 HRs, 4 SB, and 2.4 bWAR, with 1 yr/$10.5 million contract at 29 years old while Dozier last season hit .268/.340/.546 with 42 HRs, 28 SB, and 6.5 bWAR, with 2 yrs/$15M contract at same age.

Doing the math, Dozier would demand 2-3 times the return of Walker...

markos · October 29, 2016

I cannot think of many teams who are planning to compete that E. Santana is not a good fit for. Even teams that are supposedly "loaded" with pitching, like the Indians and Mets.

I completely agree with this assessment. Further, I think that if the Twins want to target young major-league pitching for Dozier, teams will be much more willing to part with it if Santana is included as a replacement. Mets are a good example. They are probably more likely to give up a guy like Matz if Santana is included as a partial replacement in their rotation.

markos · October 29, 2016

5 Potential Dozier Trades

#1 Dodgers
Dozier to LAD for
-Jose De Leon (RHP): #32/100 prospect, #2 in organization. Profiles as a #2. Like adding another Berrios to the roster? Will start MLB or AAA in 2017.
-Yadier Alvarez (RHP): #93/100 prospect, #5 in organization. Profiles as frontline starter. Will start in A+ or AA in 2017.

#2 Yankees
Dozier to NYY for
-Luis Severino (RHP): former top prospect; 22 years old; 4.46 ERA in 22 GS in MLB. Would start MLB in 2017.
-Jordan Montgomery (LHP): #19 prospect in organization, profiles back of rotation starter, will start AAA or MLB in 2017.

#3 Mets
Dozier to NYM for
-Steven Matz (LHP); 3.16 career ERA in 28 mlb starts. Mets can afford to give up a young starter.

#4 Pirates
Dozier to PIT for
-Tyler Glasnow (RHP); #8/100 prospect, #1 in organization, profiles as a #1 or #2 starter. Will start 2017 in AAA or MLB.

#5 Pirates
(if not willing to trade Glasnow)
-Nick Kingham (RHP); #8 in organization; profiles as a #3 or #4 starter; will start 2017 in MLB or AAA.
-Elias Diaz ©; #7 in organization; floor is backup catcher, ceiling a solid starter; will start 2017 in A ball.
-Mitch Keller (RHP); #72/100 overall; #5 in organization; profiles as mid-rotation starter; will start 2017 at high A or AA.

I think with a Dozier trade you need to get as many of the following things back in return:
1) a SP who can help immediately
2) a SP who can help longterm (ideally this also covers #1)
3) any catching prospect - at least depth & might work out
4) depth SP prospects (profiles as #4 or #5 starter)

Would you pull the trigger on these trades? Which ones?

I would pull the trigger on #1 for sure, but for the record I don't think the Dodgers would give up both. Maybe one or the other. #3 and #4 need more support. I'm a firm believer in building a pitching staff through depth, and any Dozier deal needs at least two arms. #5 is a no. #2 is a decent start. I think adding one of the Yankee's high-end pitching prospects gets this a lot closer. Maybe Severino, Sheffield and Montgomery.

Cory Engelhardt · October 29, 2016

How about a cardinals trade; Santana and Dozier for a bounce back bet like Wacha, their #4 prospect Jack Flaherty, eventual starting catcher Carson Kelly, and a lottery pick type low minors arm? In that scenario Kolten Wong is moving to the outfield

Or would we demand Carlos Reyes or Luke Weaver instead?

Cory Engelhardt · October 29, 2016

Actually, wouldn't Reyes, Kelly and Wacha fit the scenario laid above? Are the cardinals a fit for Dozier? Maybe the twins would add Santana and a prospect because Reyes is so highly thought of

Thrylos · October 30, 2016

Actually, wouldn't Reyes, Kelly and Wacha fit the scenario laid above? Are the cardinals a fit for Dozier? Maybe the twins would add Santana and a prospect because Reyes is so highly thought of

Cardinals are a great fit because their second baseman is Wong who is a utility guy and they have nothing in sight.

I'd pass on Reyes because of the helium. I don't even think that he is their best pitching prospect. Luke Weaver is. If the Twins manage to get Luke Weaver and Carson Kelly out of the Cardinals organization, it would be a coup. I'd throw Garver their way, in addition to Dozier and Santana, if necessary...

Cory Engelhardt · October 30, 2016

Do you think it would cost Dozier and Santana to get Weaver and Kelly? Couldn't they package Dozier and Stewart (or other prospect) for those two, and use Santana in another trade? Or am I crazy (probably.)

And do you think Wacha is a bounce back candidate? I feel like he could be

markos · October 30, 2016

Cardinals are a great fit because their second baseman is Wong who is a utility guy and they have nothing in sight.

I'd pass on Reyes because of the helium. I don't even think that he is their best pitching prospect. Luke Weaver is. If the Twins manage to get Luke Weaver and Carson Kelly out of the Cardinals organization, it would be a coup. I'd throw Garver their way, in addition to Dozier and Santana, if necessary...

The Cardinals have several infielders under contract besides Wong that they played at 2B: Matt Carpenter, Jhonny Peralta, Jedd Gyorko. Dozier is better than Peralta and Gyorko, but they still need to move them. The Cardinals aren't the type of team that eats bad contracts. That is unfortunate because they are the one team that actually has the young pitching (and prospects) that would match up well with the Twins. It might require a three-team trade.

Cory Engelhardt · October 30, 2016

The Cardinals have several infielders under contract besides Wong that they played at 2B: Matt Carpenter, Jhonny Peralta, Jedd Gyorko. Dozier is better than Peralta and Gyorko, but they still need to move them. The Cardinals aren't the type of team that eats bad contracts. That is unfortunate because they are the one team that actually has the young pitching (and prospects) that would match up well with the Twins. It might require a three-team trade.

But none of those players are good 2nd baseman. Dozier does make a lot of sense for them

jorgenswest · October 30, 2016

Cardinals have three starting infielders in Peralta, Diaz and Carpenter under contract. If they are willing to trade pitching, outfield looks like the greater need.

DJSim22 · October 30, 2016

Gordon didn't even dominate A+ ball, hasn't even hit AA ball, and he's going to be GREAT in the majors in 2018? Haven't we learned to not count our rookie chickens?

I really like Gordon, but I completely agree with your point. Minor league players on this site= NFL backup QB. They are everyone's favorites. Until they make the show, then they are part of the problem.

Sign In

Setting the framework for a potential Dozier trade

Recommended Posts

Archived

Member Statistics

Prospect News & Highlights

Recent News

Notes & Rumors

Recent Blog Entries

Recent Status Updates