2017 Offseason Blueprint #1

[Cory Engelhardt]

Here is my first blueprint for 2017. Please rip it to shreds.

 

C Jason Castro (free agent, will probably need a 2 year deal with an option, possibly for 8-10 million per year.) 1
1B Kennys Vargas
2B Jorge Polanco
SS Zack Cozart (Trade acquisition) 2
3B Miguel Sano
LF Eddie Rosario
CF Byron Buxton
RF Max Kepler
DH Joe Mauer (against righties only)
Bench
C JR Murphy
OF/DH Robbie Grossman (will DH against lefties)
IF Eduardo Escobar
OF Rajai Davis (Free agent) 3

SP
Kyle Gibson
Tyler Glasnow (Trade Acquisition) 4
Jose Berrios
Trevor May
Hector Santiago

Bullpen
Tyler Duffey
TJ House (minor league free agent) 5
Brandon Kintzler
JT Chagois (closer)
Taylor Rogers
Ryan Pressley
Brett Cecil (Free Agent) 6

 

 

1) Jason Castro has been a catcher for Houston. He will turn 30 next June. This year he hit .210 with a .307 on base (good walk rates) and a .377 slugging. That’s actually pretty much average production for the catcher position across baseball. I sign him because he is a top 5 catcher in terms of framing pitches, and he blocks EVERYTHING in the dirt. In terms of throwing guys out he is average to below average, but it is the framing that would help the pitching staff so much. If he can get 8 more strikes per game than Suzuki could, that could make a ton of difference.
2) Zack Cozart is a defensive whiz from Cincinnati. He will turn 32 next August. He was playing at an all star level last year before injuring his knee, and has been out since August. He is a free agent after 2017, so Cincinnati may not want to trade him at his lowest point (sound familiar?) but he is a top 3-4 defensive shortstop across baseball. He is SO MUCH better than anyone they have had play the position for years that being next to Sano would cut runs allowed a TON.
3) Rajai Davis. He was with Cleveland this year. He is fast, plays good d, has a little bit of pop but mostly he would be here to be the 4th outfielder. I’m thinking Falvey knows a thing about him too, being from Cleveland and all. Having a good defensive outfielder on the bench, or for sure to hit against lefties (instead of Rosario) could be a good thing.
4) Tyler Glasnow is Pittsburgh’s top prospect. He is the #3 prospect in baseball right now, and has a legit shot to be a #1.  He is 23 (he’ll turn 24 in August of next year) and this year in the minors he was 8-3 with a 1.96 era, with 144 k’s in his 116 2/3 innings. His biggest problem is his walks, as he also had 68 walks in those innings. He is 6’8”, and has an plus plus fastball with an above average curveball and changeup. He needs some help with his command, but he is the type of guy you ask for in a Dozier trade, which is what I did. He is Pittsburgh’s 3rd best pitcher at the moment, which makes it easier to swallow for them as well. (Cole, Taillon and others, along with that defense, a LOT of pitchers look better than they really are with Pittsburgh.)
5) TJ House, minor league free agent lefty from Cleveland. He will turn 29 in August of next year. He has started and relieved in the past. Hopefully Falvey would look for someone like this. He has good strikeout rates in the minors and hasn’t had the best of shots in the majors outside of injury. As a minor league free agent, you have nothing to lose.
6) Brett Cecil, free agent lefty from Toronto. He will turn 31 in July of next year. He has been the Blue Jay’s best lefty for the past few years, and he probably won’t be cheap for a bullpen guy. But he averages 11 k’s per 9, and under 2 walks per 9. He pretty much always has an era in the 2 range, and would be a legit setup or closer on most teams. I almost think he could be our free agent splash (even over the catcher) as bullpen is easier to fix than the rotation, at least quickly.
7) I didn’t mention Ervin Santana. I traded Ervin to the Blue Jays. They almost got him at the deadline, and I think those talks could pick up again. They have a potential future ace who pitched at Fort Myers level last year named Sean Reid-Foley. He just turned 21 on August 30. He has an above average fastball, slider and an an average changeup. He is 6’3” 220 and last year in the minors (between low A and hi A) he went 10-5 with a 2.81 era, in 115 innings he struck out 130 and only walked 38, giving up 78 hits. He is the #76 prospect in baseball, which is slightly higher than Gonsalves. He would be at AA Chattanooga next year. I also think Toronto would/could give up Vlad Guerrero Jr (yup, that one) who will turn 18 next March. He is probably a 3B/1B/OF at some point. He is years away, but he is a top prospect in the Appalachian league, and he obviously has bloodlines. He would play at Elizabethton, and possibly Cedar Rapids, next year.
8) I didn’t mention Plouffe. I don’t think he is back. I also think if Hughes shows up and can contribute, you switch him out with Santiago. I’m not expecting Hughes or Perkins to be back right away (or at all, compared to what they used to be) and I’m putting Mauer as the primary DH because that can keep him healthiest. He at least can get on base, right?

[diehardtwinsfan]

Like Dozier for Glasnow.  Not sure if the Pirates will give up on him, but that's not a bad way to trade from strength to fill a position of need.  I might consider finding a youngish catcher via trade as well.  Not a fan of Castro (though we could do much worse).

 

Pass on Cozart.

 

I would definitely have Buxton insurance.  He was good this last month, but I'm hardly sold on him. 

 

No way I tender Santiago.  Trade or non-tender.  That's what I'd do with Plouffe too.

[Cory Engelhardt]

What has Byron done to have you not be sold on him?

[jun]

I would not do trade acquisition #2, I think Escobar is capable of handling SS position adequately full time.

Mauer should still be at 1B. Vargas can be the DH.

I would not keep Grossman on the roster.

I would not trade Ervin Santana.

I would not make JT Chagois the closer yet. Is he ready for a closer job?

May should be the long reliever. Try not to use him too often. He seems a bit fragile.

Dozier should be traded for a better return. He is already at his peak value. I like your idea. Who wouldn't? I would definitely try to get the best return possible.

Plouffe should not be back at all. Escobar could also handle 3B if needed.

The Twins might need a new utility player with good defensive skill. Beresford or someone better?

[Cory Engelhardt]

 

I would not do trade acquisition #2, I think Escobar is capable of handling SS position adequately full time.

Mauer should still be at 1B. Vargas can be the DH.

I would not keep Grossman on the roster.

I would not trade Ervin Santana.

I would not make JT Chagois the closer yet. Is he ready for a closer job?

May should be the long reliever. Try not to use him too often. He seems a bit fragile.

Dozier should be traded for a better return. He is already at his peak value. I like your idea. Who wouldn't? I would definitely try to get the best return possible.

Plouffe should not be back at all. Escobar could also handle 3B if needed.

The Twins might need a new utility player with good defensive skill. Beresford or someone better?

1) Escobar, if he is fully healthy, is totally capable of handling SS. He is not anywhere near the same level defensively as Zack Cozart. I don't know if either are healthy. I'd prefer to have Escobar as the utility guy, but to each their own.

2) Molitor has said it himself, Mauer is probably not a full time player any longer. He can still get on base, but concussions and leg injuries have taken a toll on him. Certainly he can still play 1st base, obviously, but if playing 5-6 days a week in the field hurts his legs, I'd try to keep him as healthy as possible because his bat is still useful.

3) Robbie Grossman, the 280/386/443 Grossman? As a bench bat and occasional fill in DH/OF? Why in the world would you ever get rid of that production? Especially if he bats against mostly lefties or pinch hits? To get rid of him would be ridiculous.

4) Why in the world would you keep Ervin? To win in 2017? The Twins aren't getting to the playoffs in 2017, and when his contract is up after 2018, are you wanting to extend a 36 year old? This one baffles me.

5) Chagois is pitching like one of your best relievers, if not your best reliever, right now. He throws hard, throws strikes, and has at least 2 pitches. You could do a lot worse. Maybe he isn't the closer job, but to ask if he is ready for a bullpen job, when the 9th inning isn't any more stressful than high leverage situations in the 7th (that he can handle) I don't get that thinking.

6) Fragile? I don't get that thinking either. He has pitched more than just about any reliever in baseball, as far as appearances, the last 2 years. If anything he was mismanaged. I'd certainly see what he has as a starter, and his back will probably thank him for throwing every 5 days rather than every day or every other.

 

[wavedog]

Thanks for laying out the first blueprint - a lot to like about it.   Like the bullpen and rotating Vargas, Mauer at 1st/DH with Grossman limited to DH or playing in the OF when we have a groundball pitcher throwing.   Park and Walker could be other options rather than Grossman.      One thing I think the team needs to add is a strong veteran leader and Rajai Davis may fill that bill.   Without digging into too much I was thinking we should go after Ian Desmond.  He normally has played SS (average defensively) but has transitioned to the outfield this year for Texas and has experienced a winning culture.  He is a real good character guy.  He could play SS and with the flexibility to move to outfield if Vielma or Gordon develop - might cost too much though and do you want to forfeit a draft pick.    At catcher, I don't care so much for hitting -  at this point I will take anyone that can frame a pitch and knows how to call a game by mixing pitches.    

[Cory Engelhardt]

I'd be all about really giving a good deal to someone and forfeiting the 2nd round pick if it meant bringing in someone special to help. Ramos and Wieters may fit that bill. Desmond has truly been amazing this year, but I wonder what his contract would look like? I like the thinking. I wonder if the front office will make a big 4-5 year offer to anyone right away? They definitely need help at catcher and pitcher, but SS could always use an upgrade, as does outfield. Thanks!

[bluechipper]

 

I'd be all about really giving a good deal to someone and forfeiting the 2nd round pick if it meant bringing in someone special to help. Ramos and Wieters may fit that bill. Desmond has truly been amazing this year, but I wonder what his contract would look like? I like the thinking. I wonder if the front office will make a big 4-5 year offer to anyone right away? They definitely need help at catcher and pitcher, but SS could always use an upgrade, as does outfield. Thanks!

Ramos just tore his ACL, so that's not happening.

 

Also, you just said that you saw into the future and the Twins aren't winning in 2017, so they should trade Santana, yet now you advocate for signing a 30+ year old catcher or outfielder to a big contract? Those two ideas don't mix too well.

 

And just for the record, Ian Desmond had a .782 OPS this year. He started out great, but was pretty bad in the second half.

[TheLeviathan]

I like anyone willing to put themselves out there.  A lot of people make veiled comments that are vague enough for them to boast about later regardless of the outcome.  

 

That said, I think Grossman needs to be on a different team by next year.  Ideally you could move Mauer or Park as well.

 

I'd like to see the 25 man roster shake out something like this:

 

C - Acquisition (defensive minded), Murphy

1B - Vargas

2B - Polanco, Escobar

SS - Acquisition

3B - Sano

DH - Park/Mauer

LF - Rosario, RH outfielder (this could be Grossman, but i'd rather not)

CF - Buxton, FA acquisition

RF - Kepler

 

SP - Gibson, Berrios, May, Trade Acquisition, Trade Acquisition

Bullpen - Duffey, Chartgois, Tonkin, Pressley, Rogers, Kintzler, and two acquisitions

 

Too early to fill in names yet for me on the acquisitions.

[lecroy24fan]

Desmond also moved from SS because he had become a below average defender.

[Craig Arko]

I'll go with:

 

1) Hire a GM.

[Cory Engelhardt]

 

Also, you just said that you saw into the future and the Twins aren't winning in 2017, so they should trade Santana, yet now you advocate for signing a 30+ year old catcher or outfielder to a big contract? Those two ideas don't mix too well.

You are right; if I were gm I would not sign someone to a deal that forfeits our pick this year. More I was supporting that's person's thought.

[Jerr]

One of the many reasons I love this site.....this thread as posters get soooo deep into stuff, my head spins...in a GREAT way!!!!!

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

What has Byron done to have you not be sold on him?

Striking out in 33% of his at bats is certainly a part of it.  He had a good last month allowing him to finish with a respectable OPS (with little change to his peripherals), but one month does not a season make.  I would have insurance there.  I certainly would not hand him a job out of ST if he doesn't start looking like he belongs.

[Cory Engelhardt]

No, obviously Buxton isn't a finished product. But he is only 22 and is already gold glove level on defense, -'d is faster than anyone in the game. Who would they acquire that you would feel good about playing over their probable most valuable (in terms of fwar) player next year (after a Dozier trade?)

[DocBauer]

Actually, i really like all your ideas here and think he hit right on just about across the board. One thing I really like is actually targeting names and viable options that make sense rather than some crazy idea like Santana for one of the top milb catchers in baseball, etc.

 

Not to debate your ideas necessarily, but I have a couple thought/ideas to consider/compare.

 

1} I like Castro at catcher for obvious reasons; a veteran presence to lead the staff, quality defense, reasonable contact and BB skills. Not sure Houston doesnt work pretty hard to keep him though. I get a veteran catcher and won't argue the idea. But I am torn about such a move. There are to things to like about Murphy from scouting reports and his bat before this season. I also have high hopes for Garver, though I'm not sure he's ready to be the main guy to start the 2017 season. {his AFL play may help answer this to some degree}, and I like Centeno as a decent backup catcher with a solid LH bat. I keep wondering if the team might not be better off looking for the best milb FA, guy who is getting squeezed out somewhere, etc, to come in and battle with these three rather than a short term vet.

 

1A} Again, I like Centeno as the backup catcher. Ive never believed your backup catcher has to be a defense first/only guy. Centeno needs some work on balls in the dirt, but I liked the look of him otherwise, he can throw, he can some with pop and being LH is a nice compliment.

 

2} Ive maintained the bullpen is best off with a veteran to close, at least initially, in order to set up roles for the younger players, like Chargois, and slowly work on Shaggy, Pressly and others to audition for the closer role as the season moves along. Not sure who that guy is, or if its Kintzler, but I like that veteran guy to start the season. Might even be a July flip to someone.

 

3} Love the idea of an actual, proven ML OF to be signed to be the 4th OF! Ive been advocating that for some time now. Gives you depth and options. And Im OK with Grossman as a 5th OF/DH/PH option. But I wouldn't rule out a return of Plouffe, or the signing of someone similar in place of Grossman. Plouffe, as an idea, may come much cheaper than expected after his disappointing and injury riddled season. He could play both 3B and 1B as well as DH and PH. Now, the problem with Plouffe in particular is if your manager has some idea in his head that he has to play every day.

 

But really, Id feel really good about entering 2017 with the roster as you've assembled it here, with maybe a small tweak or two Ive suggested it. Depth would be good, the pitching should be at least somewhat improved, the defense would be better, and the everday lineup is still mostly young players.

[Oldgoat_MN]

Thank you enge0280. I like it that you are putting yourself out there. I realize my comments below aren't all in reference to your post, but to some of the follow-up posts.

 

I feel that a lot of people here have forgotten their Voltaire. "The perfect is the enemy of the good".

 

I'm a little cool to the idea of Castro, as his hitting has never been very good (except in his 2013 All-Star year). I have noticed, however,that he rates very high in pitch framing, and that could be huge.

 

Maybe this was the best year Robbie Grossman will ever have, but I would hate to see us let him and his slash line go just because he isn't an All-Star. He had the 3rd best OPS on the team behind Dozier & Vargas.

 

Santiago delivered some good performances. To non-tender him sounds ridiculous. If you really want to get rid of him, trade him. The guy is going to be in MLB for a while.

 

Eduardo Escobar is a year away from a pretty good year at SS. Between him and Polanco I do not feel SS is nearly as big a need as catcher or pitching.

 

We are not going to trade Mauer. Who would take that salary with the diminishing returns?

 

Fun stuff...

[Cory Engelhardt]

 

Thank you enge0280. I like it that you are putting yourself out there. I realize my comments below aren't all in reference to your post, but to some of the follow-up posts.

 

I feel that a lot of people here have forgotten their Voltaire. "The perfect is the enemy of the good".

 

I'm a little cool to the idea of Castro, as his hitting has never been very good (except in his 2013 All-Star year). I have noticed, however,that he rates very high in pitch framing, and that could be huge.

 

Maybe this was the best year Robbie Grossman will ever have, but I would hate to see us let him and his slash line go just because he isn't an All-Star. He had the 3rd best OPS on the team behind Dozier & Vargas.

 

Santiago delivered some good performances. To non-tender him sounds ridiculous. If you really want to get rid of him, trade him. The guy is going to be in MLB for a while.

 

Eduardo Escobar is a year away from a pretty good year at SS. Between him and Polanco I do not feel SS is nearly as big a need as catcher or pitching.

 

We are not going to trade Mauer. Who would take that salary with the diminishing returns?

 

Fun stuff...

1) Santiago is what he is; a solid 4/5. I do not think they non-tender him. If he is the 6th best pitcher (which could happen, if the Twins are lucky with health, which they almost never are) they certainly could get something for him. Most teams want any level of reliability with pitching. I agree.

2) And yes, I will say, if Escobar comes back healthy and is playing defense like he was in 2015, then SS isn't a need. He just was not playing like that this year, which is why I was thinking we need to look elsewhere. I don't know if Polanco is a SS in the big leagues, but if they don't trade Dozier, and keep Polanco at SS (which could happen) I don't see how runs allowed changes all that much.

3) Mauer isn't going anywhere. I just don't know that the Twins can depend on him to be a full time 1B any longer. If they can play him at 1st maybe once or twice per week, and otherwise be a bench bat and DH against righties, I think that is the best way to keep him healthy and keep his bat in the lineup a majority of the time. Even if he doesn't have power like he did pre-injuries, he still takes good at bats and gets on base. That is definitely something our lineup could use more of.

4) I don't think Castro is an all star. Heck, I don't know if he is more than a 9 hitter at this point. He is a very good pitch framer, which is something that Suzuki is terrible at. I'd be all about signing someone else, or using prospects to trade for a AA/AAA catcher who is ready to start (Austin Barnes of the Dodgers comes to mind.) They definitely need an upgrade there.

5) Thoughts on Brett Cecil? Do people see a likelihood of a "splash" (for lack of a better word) on a bullpen guy? That isn't really something Ryan and company would do, but maybe that could change?

[Dantes929]

I would be ok with most of those moves.    If Escobar is not in the plans for starting then I would maybe go with Danny Santana whose value in late innings to run for Vargas or Sano would be pretty high.    I never care for giving up on a season before it starts.   This isn't 2012.   If Sano, Buxton, Kepler and Berrios take forward steps and our relief is good from the get go it can have very profound effects on the results.   2015 might have been a mirage in a good way but no more than 2016 was in a bad way.   The talent is better than a year ago, IMO.  

[Cory Engelhardt]

 

I would be ok with most of those moves.    If Escobar is not in the plans for starting then I would maybe go with Danny Santana whose value in late innings to run for Vargas or Sano would be pretty high.    I never care for giving up on a season before it starts.   This isn't 2012.   If Sano, Buxton, Kepler and Berrios take forward steps and our relief is good from the get go it can have very profound effects on the results.   2015 might have been a mirage in a good way but no more than 2016 was in a bad way.   The talent is better than a year ago, IMO.  

I am by NO means giving up on 2017. I'm NOT saying they are going to throw in the towel. Not at all. Building a new pitching rotation will take time though, and it won't be ready overnight. And really, they could make no moves and probably win 70 games next year, just because some of what happened this year was bad luck. But to get back to even .500 will take some time, no doubt.

-

What I did with this was build a roster (theorhetically) that would be ready opening day. My plan would be that throughout 2017, Tyler Jay, Stephen Gonsalves, Kohl Stewart, a pitcher they get from a Dozier trade, other prospects that step up etc. all can start getting their feet wet. If a rookie pitcher takes off (which can happen) great, but I'm thinking that the young arms coming up through the system will be more ready to really be rotation stalwarts come 2018 and beyond. At least that is my hope. I'm not banking on the Santiago's and Santana's and Gibson's to be on the team and leading the rotation in 2018 and beyond. That's why I was saying, let Falvey do his thing and start to mold the pitching staff so 2018 and beyond it can start to be a strength.

[Guest]

I like the idea of adding to the crop of young starters by getting Tyler Glasnow, but then I think - tall, fastball-curveball pitcher, shoulder injury, needs to improve control, Molitor returning - and I get an inkling that a combination like this may not work out. But, hey, he could be packaged with Phil Hughes to get someone to take Hughes' contract.

[Cory Engelhardt]

But, Molitor may only be here for 2017. The way pitchers are going to be coached and developed is going to change with new front office leadership. That is what Falvey will help with. And no, most pitching prospects don't work out. But just because it wasn't working with the now old coaching doesn't mean it will continue to not work. Make sense?

[Mike Sixel]

Grossman is a horrible defender. He should never play the OF for this team again. 

 

And, I love that you put this out here, thanks,

[Doomtints]

I like the position player moves and batting lineup ideas.

 

However, I think the starting pitching needs a lot more work.  If Berrios still isn't ready and May simply can't do it -- both very reasonable scenarios -- what then?  The holes in the rotation will trump all of the other moves that were made and result in another high-90s+ loss season.  

[Cory Engelhardt]

 

I like the position player moves and batting lineup ideas.

 

However, I think the starting pitching needs a lot more work.  If Berrios still isn't ready and May simply can't do it -- both very reasonable scenarios -- what then?  The holes in the rotation will trump all of the other moves that were made and result in another high-90s+ loss season.  

 

I think the hope would be that their minor league prospects can develop and be more prepared going forward. On top of that, having a good defensive catcher, as well as an upgrade at SS and 2B (Polanco is probably a better defender up the middle than Brian Dozier is) will help the current staff a ton. That said, there is not much out there on the free agent market this offseason, as well as acquiring good starting pitching that is already major league quality is extremely difficult as every team wants/needs more pitching. I think 2017 we need to hope for some bounce back from Gibson (for sure) as well as May in the rotation, and then begin to develop good pitching over time.

 

That said, if people know of quality starting pitching that can be acquired without mortgaging the lineup pieces we already are building around, I am all ears.

[Mr. Brooks]

I'm not a fan of the Cozart trade.

I don't see the point in trading assets for a guy his age- you said it yourself, this team isn't making the playoffs next year.

 

Also, if a manager puts Grossman in the OF ever again, even for 1 inning, he should be fired mid game. Suzuki would probably better out there than Grossman.

I'm not sure you keep him around as a DH only, as we already have plenty of those.

 

I like the Glasgow trade ands the House signing though.

[Guest]

But, Molitor may only be here for 2017. The way pitchers are going to be coached and developed is going to change with new front office leadership. That is what Falvey will help with. And no, most pitching prospects don't work out. But just because it wasn't working with the now old coaching doesn't mean it will continue to not work. Make sense?

Definitely yes, as long as the coaches do change and Glasnow doesn't lose value from a year with Molitor.

[Cory Engelhardt]

Agreed, Grossman is bad in the OF. I wouldn't want him out there for more than an inning either. But his bat, and on base ability, is certainly useful. I'd DH him against lefties, and I'd certainly keep his bench spot for him over someone like Danny Santana, who I don't understand in what capacity he actually helps a major league roster.

[Cory Engelhardt]

 

Definitely yes, as long as the coaches do change and Glasnow doesn't lose value from a year with Molitor.

 I don't know how much, or how little, blame Molitor should have for how a pitcher develops. How much work specifically does Molitor do with any/all pitchers? I always assumed it was Neil Allen and Eddie Guardado in the majors, and their minor league coaches/development staff in the minors. If Molitor has more influence currently over how a pitcher is developed over time, I'd like to learn more about that.

 

Does anyone know, what is the development process currently like? I know it is going to be changing with new leadership, and I'm excited for those possibilities.

[Cory Engelhardt]

As far as the Cozart trade; I'm not going into it thinking he will cost a TON to acquire. I'm not trading a top 8 prospect for him by any means. I do think he would help a ton in the runs allowed department for 2017. And if that means Adalberto Mejia or Adam Brett Walker or Daniel Palka (not and) or someone in the 9-15 range, I'd do it for one year. But if the Reds are needing a Stewart/Gonsalves/Gordon/Jay/Kiriloff or anyone under 24 on the current mlb roster, I pass and move on.