Bates: Trade Dozier? History suggests really hard to get good return.

[Seth Stohs]

Our friend Mike Bates wrote an article this morning regarding the idea of the Twins trading Brian Dozier.

 

Dozier hit his 40th home run last night and is owed just $15 million over the next two years. 

 

It makes sense for the Twins to consider the idea of trading Dozier, and yet, as Mr. Bates points out, the return on top infielders traded in recent years verifies that it would be a huge risk to trade the slugging second baseman. 

 

He considers the trade returns for the likes of Andrelton Simmons, Josh Donaldson, Ian Kinsler, Ben Zobrist and a couple more. 

[Pardon My Dinger]

Ah, the old trying is the first step towards failure routine. I know it well. 

[Han Joelo]

Good article, other than the predictable and unnecessary shot at Terry Ryan.  The question I would ask, is what would Josh Donaldson have brought in a trade after last season?  That to me would be more analogous to Dozier's current situation.

 

Dozier right now isn't a "second baseman with pop," he is simply one of the most dangerous hitters in all of baseball, regardless of position.

[diehardtwinsfan]

none of those guys listed are at the level Dozier is playing at right now.  Not sure the comparison is apt.  Dozier's value cannot be any higher and given that he has 2 years left, I've got to think this one is a no-brainer from the trade department.  What I think some will be disappointed in is that a team looking to contend isn't going to have a ton of ML ready guys just waiting around to be traded.  You'll see a lot of prospects.  If you're lucky, a blocked AAA guy.

[HitInAPinch]

Well, I have to wonder how many teams came screaming to make a deal for Dozier.....

[Vanimal46]

 

none of those guys listed are at the level Dozier is playing at right now.  Not sure the comparison is apt.  Dozier's value cannot be any higher and given that he has 2 years left, I've got to think this one is a no-brainer from the trade department.  What I think some will be disappointed in is that a team looking to contend isn't going to have a ton of ML ready guys just waiting around to be traded.  You'll see a lot of prospects.  If you're lucky, a blocked AAA guy.

That's how I feel too. If you squint really hard, I guess you can say Frazier as somewhat of a comp. But that deal doesn't look particularly bad on the surface when you can acquire the #66 prospect on BA's list, a near MLB-ready OF with fairly good minor league numbers (career .840 OPS) and a fill in guy. 

[Doomtints]

 

Ah, the old trying is the first step towards failure routine. I know it well. 

 

Awesome.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

none of those guys listed are at the level Dozier is playing at right now.  Not sure the comparison is apt.

Donaldson had a slightly "down" year in 2014 just preceding the trade (127 OPS+), but his 2013 was a match for Dozier's 2016.  I don't know if any potential trade partners will apply such a strict recency bias to conclude Dozier now is way ahead of Donaldson then.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Dozier right now isn't a "second baseman with pop," he is simply one of the most dangerous hitters in all of baseball, regardless of position.

But he's only been at that level for ~4 months.  The choice at this point is whether we should bet on it continuing or not...

[Vanimal46]

 

But he's only been at that level for ~4 months.  The choice at this point is whether we should bet on it continuing or not...

It will be interesting to see if other teams feel he's now a 30+ HR threat, or continue on being a 25 HR threat and this is an anomaly season.  

[gunnarthor]

I think the Twins should see what teams need a second baseman and approach them and ask for the moon.  If they don't get a great haul, keep him.  

[LimestoneBaggy]

 

I think the Twins should see what teams need a second baseman and approach them and ask for the moon.  If they don't get a great haul, keep him.  

and that's the difference between a good new GM and a bad new GM (no implicit dig on Terry). Knowing when to take a trade, and when to walk away (I see you Jim Hoey) are job priority number one.

[Winston Smith]

IMO any player should be traded if the return will make the team better. With the worst record in the majors the Twins need a lot of better.

[mazeville]

I find this immensely frustrating. 

 

OBVIOUSLY you look to trade a guy and see what you get. If you don't get what you feel is good value, you don't trade the guy. It's that simple.

 

This idea that the Twins somehow can't trade Dozier because previous trades didn't work out well is a silly idea. Few of those prior examples are quite on the same level of Dozier because of his contract and his position. Ian Kinsler fetched Prince Fielder, by the way, who at the time was a major, middle-of-the-order bat. So I'm not sure why that's even an example.

 

The Twins would be stupid not to explore a Dozier trade this offseason. If they don't get good value, they should not do it. End of story.

[markos]

 

Donaldson had a slightly "down" year in 2014 just preceding the trade (127 OPS+), but his 2013 was a match for Dozier's 2016.  I don't know if any potential trade partners will apply such a strict recency bias to conclude Dozier now is way ahead of Donaldson then.

Especially since Donaldson had 4 seasons of team control left compared to Dozier's 2, and he was almost a year younger. 

[ALessKosherScott]

It needs to be stated the Knoblauch trade worked out pretty well. The Carew, not as much, but Landreaux and Engle were both "All-Stars."

 

It all depends on what the offer is. And even then, there's luck involved.

[markos]

 

I find this immensely frustrating. 

 

OBVIOUSLY you look to trade a guy and see what you get. If you don't get what you feel is good value, you don't trade the guy. It's that simple.

 

This idea that the Twins somehow can't trade Dozier because previous trades didn't work out well is a silly idea. Few of those prior examples are quite on the same level of Dozier because of his contract and his position. Ian Kinsler fetched Prince Fielder, by the way, who at the time was a major, middle-of-the-order bat. So I'm not sure why that's even an example.

 

The Twins would be stupid not to explore a Dozier trade this offseason. If they don't get good value, they should not do it. End of story.

I think this article (and others like it) are more about setting expectations. He isn't saying that they shouldn't explore trading Dozier. Looking at all the variables with Dozier's current market and recent history of similar players, there is a decent chance that Dozier is still in a Twins uniform in April because no other team was willing to pay full price for him. It would be a very different market and different expectations if the Twins had a starter or closer of similar value instead. 

[Craig Arko]

You got to know when to hold 'em,

Know when to fold 'em.

Know when to walk away,

Know when to run...

 

 

Get the deal you want or don't pull the trigger.

[jimmer]

It would be incredibly shocking to see Dozier traded.  I think it's more likely he's extended than traded.

[TheLeviathan]

Trading and getting a good return is hard.  It's also what we're hiring and paying our new GM to do successfully.

 

I don't care about failed moves by other teams, I care about my team making the right moves for the right people.  And heavily shopping Dozier is the right move.

[mazeville]

 

I think this article (and others like it) are more about setting expectations. He isn't saying that they shouldn't explore trading Dozier. Looking at all the variables with Dozier's current market and recent history of similar players, there is a decent chance that Dozier is still in a Twins uniform in April because no other team was willing to pay full price for him. It would be a very different market and different expectations if the Twins had a starter or closer of similar value instead. 

 

Most of the examples he provided are not quite comparable. Either the players play a different position (Donaldson, Frazier) or they're in different parts of their careers.

 

The best comparable he lists is the Kinsler-for-Fielder trade. That trade looks terrible in hindsight. But Fielder had played in all 162 games for three straight years and was a stud, middle-of-the-order bat. It was a good return for Kinsler at the time. That is not, however, the type of deal you'd expect any new POBO to make. 

 

In the Donaldson trade, the A's didn't have a third baseman in waiting and got Lowrie in return, which probably reduced the return the team received. The Frazier trade was just bad from the Reds end, even considering the allegedly low price third basemen receive. FWIW. Andrelton Simmons had one really good year and a bunch of meh years and only once has had an OPS of over .700. Ben Zoborist is older than Dozier. Martin Prado has never had a Dozier-like year.

 

I get the comparisons. I understand the need to analyze what type of return Dozier might fetch on the open market.

 

But you always analyze the market. The Twins have a guy who could slot in as a very solid second baseman next year in Jorge Polanco. The team is unlikely to contend in the two years before Dozier hits free agency. They have little else that would appeal to a potential trade partner. You MUST look at trading Dozier in the offseason. If you don't get a good return, you can always keep him and see if you can't set yourself up for a run in 2018.

[Vanimal46]

 

It would be incredibly shocking to see Dozier traded.  I think it's more likely he's extended than traded.

It certainly would be shocking. But I think this off-season could be the right time to make a franchise altering move. I would welcome a shake up of the 25 and 40 man roster, and see which one of Buxton, Sano, Kepler takes over as the clubhouse leader. 

[Doomtints]

 

and see which one of Buxton, Sano, Kepler takes over as the clubhouse leader.

 

None of these guys will.  Possibly Polanco will, depending on what happens in the offseason.  

[sthpstm]

I'm curious why he didn't include the Howie Kendrick for Andrew Heaney trade (I know, I keep banging that drum). It's not a perfect comparison since there was only 1 year left on Kendrick's deal and Kendrick was older but not of these are perfect comparisons as others have stated. If we need ML ready starting pitching, it seems like there may be no better trade comparison.

[h2oface]

A player from your system finally puts all the development together and becomes even more than you had ever thought possible.... and the "real fans" all say reward the fans and player by getting rid of them. It seems the real fans want perpetual hope and dreams prospects to write about instead of MLB standouts. Reward success by kicking them out the door. Not me. Any return for Dozier won't even dent the pitching problem. It would be like a fly ramming an army tank. Good thing folks don't trade their family assets for new prospects and strangers just when they have put all the rearing and personal growth together and are at peak performance.

[Doomtints]

I was all for trading him and his streaky, barely-good-enough ways until his recent power surge.  At this point I say keep him another year to see if he can keep it up.  And if he can't keep it up, we know his floor is "not a minus" which is a step up from many of the others on the team.  

[Seth Stohs]

 

It certainly would be shocking. But I think this off-season could be the right time to make a franchise altering move. I would welcome a shake up of the 25 and 40 man roster, and see which one of Buxton, Sano, Kepler takes over as the clubhouse leader. 

 

Yeah, I don't think any of them would, not anytime soon. Buxton is a leader by example, but he's very quiet. Kepler is quiet, keeps to himself a bit. Sano is not quiet. He could, but I don't think anyone will follow his example lead they way that the other two could lead by example. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I'm curious why he didn't include the Howie Kendrick for Andrew Heaney trade (I know, I keep banging that drum). It's not a perfect comparison since there was only 1 year left on Kendrick's deal and Kendrick was older but not of these are perfect comparisons as others have stated. If we need ML ready starting pitching, it seems like there may be no better trade comparison.

The Howie Kendrick trade is probably worthy of mention and analysis, but it was actually part of a 3-team deal and thus fairly complicated.  Dee Gordon was probably the more notable second baseman moved in that transaction too.

[Thrylos]

He is cherry picking.  Forgot to mention that Zobrist was also traded for Sean Manea plus a guy.  And Dozier has more value than Zobrist had then.  I'd take Manea plus another pitching prospect at that level for Dozier in a heartbeat.

[Vanimal46]

 

Yeah, I don't think any of them would, not anytime soon. Buxton is a leader by example, but he's very quiet. Kepler is quiet, keeps to himself a bit. Sano is not quiet. He could, but I don't think anyone will follow his example lead they way that the other two could lead by example. 

Fair enough. Is there a young player, such as Polanco that Doomtints mentioned before, that could take over as the clubhouse leader?