Kintzler for 2017?

[Vanimal46]

Well, sure, if they are going to go out and promote the young guys and sign like 3 FAs, sure......how likely is that?

 

the plan has to be to cut the guy if he turns into Boshers or Fien....and to have RPs in AA and AAA you are wiling to call up and let pitch.

 

Like, why is Wimmers not here, since they need a long man? Mind. Boggling.

Hopefully more likely with the new regime than the TR era...

 

If Kinzler is brought back, I agree he needs a short leash, a 2016 Fien leash, and bring up the young guys.

 

Most everything this season has been mind.boggling. We're heading into September with decisions to be made, and not a lot of data to make those decisions.

[nicksaviking]

 

Well, I don't see why you don't bring him back at this point. He's cheap. Just don't assume he's your best RP. 

 

In a vacuum I agree.

 

My fear is that the current manager will ride with Kintzler too long next year in high leverage situations simply because he got the job done in 2016. This team certainly would have been in better shape had Molitor rode with the hotter hands of Tonkin, Pressly and/or May instead of giving Jepsen a leash (noose) into June.

 

Though to be fair, nearly all relief pitchers are flakey and you can't take them all away to avoid statistically unjustified managerial favorability. I'd guess others who are in favor of moving Kintzler feel the same as I do, it's really less about the pitcher and more about nervousness about how much the manager will rely on him.

 

Of course there is an alternative to removing the pitcher from the equation....

[Mike Sixel]

 

In a vacuum I agree.

 

My fear is that the current manager will ride with Kintzler too long next year in high leverage situations simply because he got the job done in 2016. This team certainly would have been in better shape had Molitor rode with the hotter hands of Tonkin, Pressly and/or May instead of giving Jepsen a leash (noose) into June.

 

Though to be fair, nearly all relief pitchers are flakey and you can't take them all away to avoid statistically unjustified managerial favorability. I'd guess others who are in favor of moving Kintzler feel the same as I do, it's really less about the pitcher and more about nervousness about how much the manager will rely on him.

 

Of course there is an alternative to removing the pitcher from the equation....

 

Of course, I did say he needed a short leash.

 

I have two concerns with keeping him:

 

1. That will preclude them from adding a likely better arm, just like acquiring Murphy kept them from getting a real catcher.

 

2. Molitor appears to have a bias for veterans over rookies. I'd rather the best players play more....

 

I have 1 concern with cutting him:

1. They don't have better options right now.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

We should be trying to trade him.  Aggressively.

 

But if we can't find anything, then we should bring him back.

 

This.  He's cheap and can be DFAd if he takes a major step back. If no one offers anything of value, then by all means hold on and see if he fetches more in 2017.

[Brock Beauchamp]

[Willihammer]

No

[Craig Arko]

 

sign.gif

Make our bullpen great again.

[ashbury]

Make our bullpen great again.

I'm with Brandon.

[Craig Arko]

 

I'm with Brandon.

Feel the Brand...

[ashbury]

Feel the Brand...

Brandon!

[bluechipper]

 

But it won't happen totally in 2017. But if things go right, the Twins bullpen of the future, at least by 2018, will contain Hildenberger, Burdi, Jones, Reed, Bard, Chargolis, Melotakis. Not sure who the closer candidate will be.

The sad part is that the youngest guy you listed here is 23 years old (Burdi and Reed), and we're just hoping they're a part of the team by mid-2017/2018. I know injury has played a large part in that, but these guys need to be moved faster when healthy.

[HitInAPinch]

I agree, let's dump Kintzler.  Because there are literally MILLIONS some top-quality arms available that are desperate to play for the Twins.

 

http://www.spotrac.com/mlb/free-agents/relief-pitcher/

[Vanimal46]

 

I agree, let's dump Kintzler.  Because there are literally MILLIONS some top-quality arms available that are desperate to play for the Twins.

 

http://www.spotrac.com/mlb/free-agents/relief-pitcher/

If you ask nicely, I will come back to pitch for Minnesota. 

[jimmer]

 

If you ask nicely, I will come back to pitch for Minnesota. 

I always liked that song Van Halen wrote about him/you...

[HitInAPinch]

 

If you ask nicely, I will come back to pitch for Minnesota. 

You, Charley Walters and I'll throw in a wheel barrow of Ben Gay   

 

Edit:  Ben Gay is not a AAA pitcher of good repore

[jimmer]

 

'Vanimal, Vanimal
Vanimal, Vanimal

 

Yeah, we're runnin' a little bit hot tonight
I can barely see the road from the heat comin' off of it
Ah, you reach down, between my legs
Ease the seat back'

 

-Van Halen

[kab21]

 

What makes me laugh is the notion you'd reject an Abad-like return for him. 

I didn't say I would reject it. Just like the Abad trade I am rather indifferent if that is the best you can hope for. 

[Thrylos]

2010: Matt Capps: 2.00 ERA, 2.89 FIP, 1.185 WHIP, 7 K/9, 2.63 K/BB, .302 BABIP
2016: Brandon Kintzler: 1.86 ERA, 3.55 FIP, 0.983 WHIP, 5.6 K/9, 8!!! K/BB, .261 BABIP

 

Hope this illustrates how I feel about Kintzler...

[Guest]

2010: Matt Capps: 2.00 ERA, 2.89 FIP, 1.185 WHIP, 7 K/9, 2.63 K/BB, .302 BABIP

2016: Brandon Kintzler: 1.86 ERA, 3.55 FIP, 0.983 WHIP, 5.6 K/9, 8!!! K/BB, .261 BABIP

 

Hope this illustrates how I feel about Kintzler...

If he pitches to that FIP next year as a cheap middle reliever, i.e., much lower contract than Duensing, Fien, Burton, Capps, Jepsen, Stauffer, Boyer, that would be OK, unless there are six or seven other sure things with more long-term potential ready to go.

 

Right now, the 2017 bullpen looks like Rogers, Pressly, Tonkin, Perkins (if healthy), May (if healthy and not starting), Chargois and Kintzler. Except for Rogers, nobody looks like a better value certainty as a reliever than Kintzler and his low walk and high GB rates.

[TheLeviathan]

 

I didn't say I would reject it. Just like the Abad trade I am rather indifferent if that is the best you can hope for. 

 

I think it's doing damn well for a minor league invite.  I'll take that stuff all day and twice on Sunday.

[kab21]

 

I think it's doing damn well for a minor league invite.  I'll take that stuff all day and twice on Sunday.

Still not getting it. I am rather indifferent to landing marginal prospects. Fine if it happens but I am not going to demand that heads roll because of missed opportunities.

[Thrylos]

 

Right now, the 2017 bullpen looks like Rogers, Pressly, Tonkin, Perkins (if healthy), May (if healthy and not starting), Chargois and Kintzler. Except for Rogers, nobody looks like a better value certainty as a reliever than Kintzler and his low walk and high GB rates.

 

Depends what glasses you are wearing

 

Right now the 2017 bullpen to me looks something like:

 

Burdi, Chargois, Rogers, Baxendale, Melotakis (and let's say Storen or another free agent)

[TheLeviathan]

 

Still not getting it. I am rather indifferent to landing marginal prospects. Fine if it happens but I am not going to demand that heads roll because of missed opportunities.

 

Well, I must've missed the guillotine prep.  Where was that?

 

The point was that he should be shopped.  I'll gladly land young, even marginal prospects for guys we didn't even guarantee money to.  

[Guest]

Depends what glasses you are wearing

 

Right now the 2017 bullpen to me looks something like:

 

Burdi, Chargois, Rogers, Baxendale, Melotakis (and let's say Storen or another free agent)

Starting the year with four rookies, two of whom have yet to do anything good in AA and one of whom just became a reliever in AAA, is an unusual concept, almost as rare as playing the largest RF in history despite his never playing OF previously.

 

As for Storen, good luck getting him for anything like the one year, $1M contract Kintzler will get. Instead, Storen's going to be looking for a multi-year commitment at a much higher AAV. This financial analysis doesn't touch on the possibility that Kintzler might be a better pitcher with a lesser reputation.

 

That said, in 2018, or even perhaps the latter part of 2017, much of your proposed bullpen sounds good.

[mikelink45]

 

Kinzler is not Jepsen, Jepsen is not Kinzler

Remember your quote next year at this time.  It does not matter who the pitcher is, at this stage of his career he has shown who Kinzler is and this is an aberration year.  I do not trust one year performances that rise so far above the norm, whether Jepsen, Hughes, Suzuki, or Kinzler.   

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Remember your quote next year at this time.  It does not matter who the pitcher is, at this stage of his career he has shown who Kinzler is and this is an aberration year.  I do not trust one year performances that rise so far above the norm, whether Jepsen, Hughes, Suzuki, or Kinzler.   

 

While you are right to be skeptical of a one-year positive outlier, you can't necessarily expect a negative outlier to follow, as what appeared to happen to Jepsen.

 

I think a reasonable expectation for Jepsen would have been something like his 3 previous seasons prior to coming to the Twins, a collective 116 ERA+ (individually, 84, 127, 137).  If he did that, he'd still be on the team (although to be fair, the team probably wouldn't be in that different of a position today).

 

Kintzler only really has 2 full seasons, but he had a career 116 ERA+ before coming to the Twins.  His 2 full seasons were 117 and 144.  He pitched in slightly lower leverage than Jepsen, but not dramatically so.

 

I think it would be safe to pencil Kintzler in for a 100-115 ERA+ in modest leverage for next year.  It's not super valuable, but useful, and there are still enough question marks in our pen that we'd probably have a place for it.

 

If a Pat Light type player was offered for him at the deadline, I would have leaned toward accepting, but I'm not so sure.  Fangraphs had this to say about Light: "He has a bit of a command problem, which manifests itself in his 13% walk rate. He’s also 25, which suggests he’ll likely never become much more than the iffy reliever he is right now."