White Sox Trade for James Shields

[SwainZag]

http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/15955489/james-shields-traded-chicago-white-sox-san-diego-padres-erik-johnson-fernando-tatis-jr

 

Shields to the South Side for SP Erik Johnson and SS Fernando Tatis Jr.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

salary dump for lottery ticket?

[biggentleben]

 

salary dump for lottery ticket?

 

Not really. Padres are eating a big share of the salary as well.

[Mr. Brooks]

Not really. Padres are eating a big share of the salary as well.

They are eating half of it.

30 million is definitely a salary dump no matter how you slice it.

[diehardtwinsfan]

good... at least we won't have to hear any trade for Shields threads.  Not sure this was the best move by the WS... but then again, I don't think they expected to contend either.

[mikelink45]

Baseball has reached a point of re-evaluation.  It is time to step back and see what the value of contracts really are worth for players in their 30s.  Career year need to be ignored -think Suzuki, Hughes and now Nunez.  Past performance for another team is not worth breaking the vault open for a new team - see the Angels and Pujols.  Value is in the front end of a career not the back end and these team owners are supposed to be successful business men who should recognize that.   And if their key employee (TR) does not see this its time to say you are fired and move on. 

[biggentleben]

 

Baseball has reached a point of re-evaluation.  It is time to step back and see what the value of contracts really are worth for players in their 30s.  Career year need to be ignored -think Suzuki, Hughes and now Nunez.  Past performance for another team is not worth breaking the vault open for a new team - see the Angels and Pujols.  Value is in the front end of a career not the back end and these team owners are supposed to be successful business men who should recognize that.   And if their key employee (TR) does not see this its time to say you are fired and move on. 

 

This is nothing new. Players have always made money in the second half of their careers because they were paid peanuts in the first half of their careers. That's the basis of free agency. Owners get 6 years of incredibly cheap labor before the player can truly negotiate in an open market.

[USAFChief]

There's a pretty decent chance Shields will be better over the remainder of 2016 than any Twins starter, IMO.

 

And an excellent chance he'll be better than the other choices for 5th starter for the WS.

 

To me, I'd rather ownership and management say "we've got a shot, screw the money and and hoarding every minor leaguer" than what we get from the Twins.

 

Good for them whether or not it works.

[Guest]

To me, I'd rather ownership and management say "we've got a shot, screw the money and and hoarding every minor leaguer" than what we get from the Twins.

 

I mostly agree with you, Chief, but this has led to Matt Capps and Kevin Jepsen, in exchange for players I'd rather have today.

[TheLeviathan]

I'm amazed at how much of this deal San Diego is still paying.

[jimmer]

The funny part is the part where the White Sox think they're actually contending. They made an April similar to our May last year.  Doesn't make them contenders.  

[Jham]

 

I mostly agree with you, Chief, but this has led to Matt Capps and Kevin Jepsen, in exchange for players I'd rather have today.

Well that's a good excuse for never trading prospects....  Hu did we even give up for Jepsen?  I don't remember.  We also refused to part with Joe Bensen, Aaron Hicks, or Kyle Gibson to get Cliff Lee back in his prime.

[Rosterman]

Yes, players deserve all the monies they can get if they play thru contract servitude and all thru arbitration. I always did feel that a further contract would be a plus reward for past services with hopes for still more glories. Free agency, as a whole, often gets out-of-hand with the new team picking up a tab that usually ahs nowhere to go but down.

 

[USAFChief]

The funny part is the part where the White Sox think they're actually contending. They made an April similar to our May last year.  Doesn't make them contenders.

 

"Our May" had the Twins in contention for the last WC until the final week of the season. Those games count. What's funny is thinking that somehow they don't, therefore the team should act like they lost those games instead of won them.

[nicksaviking]

The funny part is the part where the White Sox think they're actually contending. They made an April similar to our May last year.  Doesn't make them contenders.

 

I don't understand the analogy. As unimpressive as they look, the 2016 White Sox nearly position for position are more talented than the 2015 Twins.

 

I mean Sale and Quintana alone make them better than last year's Twins.

[The Wise One]

 

There's a pretty decent chance Shields will be better over the remainder of 2016 than any Twins starter, IMO.

And an excellent chance he'll be better than the other choices for 5th starter for the WS.

To me, I'd rather ownership and management say "we've got a shot, screw the money and and hoarding every minor leaguer" than what we get from the Twins.

Good for them whether or not it works.

Yes, but is he better than the other team's 3d starter? Lucky Latos and Rondon are not exactly great in the FIP department.

[Guest]

Well that's a good excuse for never trading prospects....  Hu did we even give up for Jepsen?  I don't remember.  We also refused to part with Joe Bensen, Aaron Hicks, or Kyle Gibson to get Cliff Lee back in his prime.

I agree completely, except that current traders seem to have bad outcomes with their choices of who to keep and who to trade. For example, I'd rather have Hu than Kohl Stewart, today and last year.

[Kwak]

The "curious" point I see (concerning the Shields trade) is that the Twins didn't believe trading to acquire a high-priced veteran last year was merited, yet after the season ended management was convinced that the team had turned-the-corner into a playoff team for 2016.

[Mike Sixel]

Some teams play to win. Some pass on the opportunity when luck puts them in a position they did not expect.

[jimmer]

 

Some teams play to win. Some pass on the opportunity when luck puts them in a position they did not expect.

and sometimes teams make very bad decisions because they think they are contenders when their talent level should tell them other-wise.  For example Ryan doing practically nothing because he and Jim Poohlad thought it was logical to assume the Twins would have an even better record this year based on what they did last year.

 

 

 

[USAFChief]

Some teams play to win. Some pass on the opportunity when luck puts them in a position they did not expect.

Yup. I will almost never question the Twins for trying to win. It might not work, but doing nothing doesn't seem like the better alternative, in most cases.

 

I doubt trading for Shields turns out to be a huge mistake.

[The Wise One]

 

Yup. I will almost never question the Twins for trying to win. It might not work, but doing nothing doesn't seem like the better alternative, in most cases.

I doubt trading for Shields turns out to be a huge mistake.

It can't be a mistake to trade for a sub league average pitcher to substitute for a  replacement level performance. Will it do the team much good?

[Mike Sixel]

If you never make any move unless you are 100% sure it will work, you will stand in place your whole life and die.

 

of course it can be a mistake. But a mistake in trying to win>>>>>>a mistake of doing nothing out of fear, imo.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

It can't be a mistake to trade for a sub league average pitcher to substitute for a  replacement level performance. Will it do the team much good?

Shields was pretty much exactly league average in performance last year -- 105 ERA-, versus the MLB SP average of 103.

 

His performance this year is a little below league average (110 ERA-), but only because we are looking at it after a disaster start (2.2 IP, 10 ER).  A week ago, he had a 79 ERA-, which would rank 22nd among qualifiers in all of MLB.

 

I'd say a fair assessment would be that he is a league-average starter, still with a decent upside to be better than that.  And a pretty high floor not to wind up worse.

 

And that can be a notable upgrade, quite easily a win or two over a season, at least.

[Vanimal46]

Tangent question: Since the Padres are paying $31 million to the White Sox to take on James Shields, do they pay that to them in a lump sum and it's no longer on their payroll after this season? Do they pay them in $7.75 million increments for the duration of the contract?

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Tangent question: Since the Padres are paying $31 million to the White Sox to take on James Shields, do they pay that to them in a lump sum and it's no longer on their payroll after this season? Do they pay them in $7.75 million increments for the duration of the contract?

It's not a lump sum, it is divided over the years.  Not sure if it's equally divided or not.

 

Shields has an opt out after this season, if he exercised it, the Padres would not have to pay $31 million.

[Vanimal46]

 

It's not a lump sum, it is divided over the years.  Not sure if it's equally divided or not.

 

Shields has an opt out after this season, if he exercised it, the Padres would not have to pay $31 million.

Thanks. My question didn't add much to the discussion but I was curious to know how that worked. 

[diehardtwinsfan]

Shields is doing his 'league average' thing in the NL.  I'd also add that there's little chance he opts out of the remaining two years of his deal. 

 

I don't see this ending well for the WS... not really complaining there, but it's really interesting how I hear so many people complaining about going after aging, NL pitchers only to see everyone patting the WS on the back for going out and getting one.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Shields is doing his 'league average' thing in the NL.  I'd also add that there's little chance he opts out of the remaining two years of his deal. 

 

I don't see this ending well for the WS... not really complaining there, but it's really interesting how I hear so many people complaining about going after aging, NL pitchers only to see everyone patting the WS on the back for going out and getting one.

The White Sox got one for 3/27, or basically Phil Hughes' first contract (with a much better track record than Hughes, even considering the last 1.5 average years in the NL).

 

There is very little risk for the White Sox here, assuming they don't give Shields an extension.

[Mike Sixel]

Heck of a first start.....