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Mike Sixel

By Mike Sixel
in Minnesota Twins Talk

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Willihammer Cedar Rapids Kernels

Willihammer

Provisional Member
Posted
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Buxton as we all remember, was a big "projection" guy when he was taken. Out of curiosity I looked up Buxton's senior year batting stats..513 with 3 homers.

 

Other prep bats taken that year:

David Dahl- .429 with 4 homers

Addison Russell- .358 with 8 homers

Corey Seager- .519 with 10 homers

D.J. Davis- .376 with 0(?) homers

 

Some comps to Buxton taken in other drafts-

Mike Trout- .531 with 18 homers (state record)

B.J. Upton- .641 with 11 homers

Justin Upton- .519, 11 homers

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drjim Cedar Rapids Kernels

drjim

Provisional Member
Posted
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JBJ first had an acceptable season his 24-25 year old season, broke out last year at 25-26. It might just take Buxton that much time.

 

Buxton might be a victim have his other tools being so loud, got him to the bigs too quick.

70charger Ft Myers Mighty Mussels

70charger

Verified Member
Posted
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It's not.  JBJ was not an 1-2 pick, he was a supplemental first round pick.  Also he was never crowned the "best prospect in baseball" right before he made it to the majors.  He was #50.  Totally different pedestal and set of expectations for Buxton. 

 

Got to compare the expectations for Buxton with other #1 overall prospects and other top 2 drafted prospects.

 

http://i.imgur.com/3Vv2G6v.png

Otto von Ballpark All-Star

Otto von Ballpark

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted

 

JBJ MiLB slash:

.294 .391 .460 .851

 

JBJ MLB slash over his first 550 PAs:

.196 .268 .280 .548

 

Look familiar? JBJ even entered MLB during his age 23 season if you want even more parity. Buxton got there a bit younger but both were quite young when they were promoted.

 

No doubt that Bradley had a tough start, but his K rate was better than Buxton's, his walk rate was roughly league average, his BABIP was below average, and his ISO was really, really low.  That's a more traditional poor career start for a player -- you would expect the BABIP to come back to average, and you'd expect some power to develop too.

 

Buxton is weird because his power and BABIP have been pretty good overall in his time in MLB.  But he is striking out at such an insanely high rate.  Of course, he's had a couple stretches where the power and BABIP escape him too.

 

Results-wise, Bradley late July into August 2014 was about as lost as Buxton today, though. He had a 1-for-36 stretch with 18 K's, although outside of that stretch he seemed to control his K's better than Buxton.

Brock Beauchamp GOAT

Brock Beauchamp

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Posted
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No doubt that Bradley had a tough start, but his K rate was better than Buxton's, his walk rate was roughly league average, his BABIP was below average, and his ISO was really, really low.  That's a more traditional poor career start for a player -- you would expect the BABIP to come back to average, and you'd expect some power to develop too.

 

Buxton is weird because his power and BABIP have been pretty good overall in his time in MLB.  But he is striking out at such an insanely high rate.  Of course, he's had a couple stretches where the power and BABIP escape him too.

 

Results-wise, Bradley late July into August 2014 was about as lost as Buxton today, though. He had a 1-for-36 stretch with 18 K's, although outside of that stretch he seemed to control his K's better than Buxton.

Yeah, I noticed the Ks weren't lining up but I gave that a pass as no one's K rate matches Buxton's current pace.

Otto von Ballpark All-Star

Otto von Ballpark

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted

Also, Bradley's really poor performance seems to be limited to the calendar year 2014. I wonder if there wasn't some injury thing going on with him?  Not only was he terrible in the majors that year, he was uncharacteristically bad in AAA too (.519 OPS, 26% K-rate).

 

Even in that season of 2014, Bradley was chugging along with a bad-but-not-unprecedented 76 season wRC+ in late July before going into that tailspin which continued into AAA.  But he was back to his normal self to open the 2015 season in AAA and later in the majors.

Mike Sixel GOAT

Mike Sixel

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mike sixel
1:20 He's 23. It's April. He has 500 or so ABs at the MLB level....when is it ok for a Twins' fan to worry about Buxton? Oh, and I now live in walking distance of at least 6 breweries in Portland, gonna be a long year for my liver....

 

Eno Sarris
1:20 I don't think I've ever been in on Buxton. I've traded like four shares of him by now and don't regret a single one. Very capable defender that will be around forever and will have great streaks, but I doubt he has the ability to make enough contact to be a star.

 

Jeff in Allston
1:29 Is Tyler Duffey's future home in the rotation or as a reliever?

 

Eno Sarris
1:29 reliever imo

 

Bart
1:33 what's your thoughts on Max Kepler?

 

Eno Sarris
1:33 Love the fact that he's above-average in most tools, wish he hit the ball harder.

Mike Sixel GOAT

Mike Sixel

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Greg
3:08 Is Soroka just a midrotation starter? #3? #4? He just keeps producing.

 

Keith Law
3:08 Jose Berrios produced everywhere in the minors, and while I still think he'll be a good big league starter eventually, look at his MLB work to date.

Mike Sixel GOAT

Mike Sixel

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mike sixel
2:54 It's April. He's 23. He only has 500ish ABs in the majors, but when should we worry about Buxton if he isn't hitting well?

Keith Law
2:55 I think you can worry about him now, given that he struck out a ton last year before September too. And if he starts to make more contact right now, I'd want to see him do it for a few weeks or months before thinking he's turned the corner.

Mike Sixel GOAT

Mike Sixel

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I skipped all the snarky Buxton comments/questions....so far today.

 

Ben
10:43 Obviously early, but is this the Miguel Sano everyone has been waiting for, is a .270/350/.500 slash line realistic?

 

Jeff Sullivan
10:43 I'll wait for him to face some better pitching, but one thing I like is the increase in zone swings without an increase in chases. Speaks to how good his eye really is

Brock Beauchamp GOAT

Brock Beauchamp

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Jeff Sullivan

10:43 I'll wait for him to face some better pitching, but one thing I like is the increase in zone swings without an increase in chases. Speaks to how good his eye really is

I hadn't dug into Sano's stats this season but this is what my eyes were telling me as well. The guy is hitting the pitches he should and laying off the pitches he can't.

 

Given Sano's strength, that in itself could catapult him into elite status.

Mike Sixel GOAT

Mike Sixel

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I hadn't dug into Sano's stats this season but this is what my eyes were telling me as well. The guy is hitting the pitches he should and laying off the pitches he can't.

 

Given Sano's strength, that in itself could catapult him into elite status.

 

That's what I always loved about Bonds. He didn't swing unless it was 2 strikes, or it was a pitch he WANTED to swing at. 

Mike Sixel GOAT

Mike Sixel

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Ben
10:50 The twins young players seem interesting, and the starting of a solid core, am I overrating Sano, Buxton, Kepler and on the way guys like Berrios, Gordon etc. ?

 

Jeff Sullivan
10:50 It's really easy to see the upside in big-league youth. It's not hard to imagine how the Twins could get relevant in a hurry. But, just look at where Buxton is today. He's a disaster.

The_Phantom College Ball

The_Phantom

Verified Member
Posted
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Buxton's MLB average BABIP is .314.  This season is .200.  He will get better just because of that (if indeed gets balls in play). 

Well, part 1 you already alluded to: He's striking out too much to really be contributing much. 

 

Part 2 though, not all balls put in play are created equal. He's only hit 4 line drives all season long. I'd actually say he's relatively lucky to even have a .200 babip with only 4 line drives. Even Mauer who is struggling quite a lot right now has 15. 

Mike Sixel GOAT

Mike Sixel

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CaptainPeanutbutter
9:49 Dansby Swanson and Byron Buxton are tied for worst position player's at this point with -0.6. How surprising is this? Which surprised you more? And which do you think will end the season higher?

 

Jeff Sullivan
9:50 Swanson is definitely the bigger surprise. We've seen Buxton do this before. Because of that, I think Swanson has the better chance of finishing higher. Buxton just seems lost. Swanson seems like he's struggling for the first time

Mike Sixel GOAT

Mike Sixel

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2-D
9:54 Should Jose Berrios be in the Twins' rotation right now?

 

Jeff Sullivan
9:55 That depends entirely on their internal evaluation -- they have their reasons for his being in Triple-A, and they have things they're looking for. If and when they're satisfied, it shouldn't be hard for him to step in for Mejia

bluechipper FCL Twins

bluechipper

Provisional Member
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2-D

9:54 Should Jose Berrios be in the Twins' rotation right now?

 

 

Jeff Sullivan

9:55 That depends entirely on their internal evaluation -- they have their reasons for his being in Triple-A, and they have things they're looking for. If and when they're satisfied, it shouldn't be hard for him to step in for Mejia

I think he spelled Gibson wrong.

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