Fangraphs (and other national publications) on the Twins

[ShouldaCouldaWoulda]

 

well, that wasn't helpful:

 

mike sixel
12:02 welcome to OR. It's great out here.....What kind of package could Dozier gather for the Twins, who if it weren't for the Reds might have the worst SP right now?

 

Dave Cameron
12:03 It's hard to tell. He's an excellent player, but he's so unusual that I'm not sure that teams will project this level of production to continue.

Yes, Dozier is very very good. He has been good for the past few years, but has also shown considerable stretches of slumping and dominance. The way in which he is succeeding right now is a way that does not leave room for more. He is pulling everything in the air.

 

He is not all of sudden mature physically (in a positive way) where he will be able to gain Oppo-power or anything. He is in the decline years of physical athleticism. I am willing to wager that almost any rational human would agree that Dozier is extremely unlikely to match this years production again, and that the "risk" of him declining or becoming more of a .250 AVG, .330 OBP, 10 steal, 20-25 HR guy is the most likely good outcome.  

 

He has been, is, and will likely for a few years remain a good player. But, THIS is not the BD we are likely to see in the future and we have seen the bad BD. The last stand is pull-power, which he utilizes more than anyone in the world, to a slow pitch softball level. It is awesome production and love him as a player, but this is not a situation where you "hold" a player for a team like this. You get what you can NOW, not next year when its too late. 

 

What will BD be once this teams young guys mature and we also find enough pitching to be useful? His situation appears to be obvious to everyone as a sell high. Keeping a guy like him in our current situation is the kind of move that keeps teams from improving at a more accelerated pace.

[Mike Sixel]

I have't listened, but according to Twitter....the buster olney podcast with KLAW features decent bit of Twins' discussion....

[Vanimal46]

Mike Sixel special question today:

 

mike sixel
1:26 A: thanks for the beergraphs article on hops.
B: dangit.....which trades return more prospect value, mid-season or winter?

Eno Sarris
1:27 mid-season because the other team knows they are in it.

[Mike Sixel]

hahahaha, I just cross posted that in another thread.....

 

I was more interested in the beergraphs article than the chat....

[Vanimal46]

Doesn't tell us much, but Falvey was mentioned in today's Fangraphs chat:

12:44

CamdenWarehouse: What can you tell us about Falvey?

12:44
august fagerstrom: Has a fantastic reputation inside the org. That’s about all I know.

12:44
august fagerstrom: And, clearly, outside the org, too.

12:45
august fagerstrom: Indians have been like a farm system for high-ranking front office execs over the last decade. Post coming about that topic later this week,

[Guest]

Yes, Dozier is very very good. He has been good for the past few years, but has also shown considerable stretches of slumping and dominance. The way in which he is succeeding right now is a way that does not leave room for more. He is pulling everything in the air.

 

He is not all of sudden mature physically (in a positive way) where he will be able to gain Oppo-power or anything. He is in the decline years of physical athleticism. I am willing to wager that almost any rational human would agree that Dozier is extremely unlikely to match this years production again, and that the "risk" of him declining or becoming more of a .250 AVG, .330 OBP, 10 steal, 20-25 HR guy is the most likely good outcome.  

 

He has been, is, and will likely for a few years remain a good player. But, THIS is not the BD we are likely to see in the future and we have seen the bad BD. The last stand is pull-power, which he utilizes more than anyone in the world, to a slow pitch softball level. It is awesome production and love him as a player, but this is not a situation where you "hold" a player for a team like this. You get what you can NOW, not next year when its too late. 

 

What will BD be once this teams young guys mature and we also find enough pitching to be useful? His situation appears to be obvious to everyone as a sell high. Keeping a guy like him in our current situation is the kind of move that keeps teams from improving at a more accelerated pace.

Sell high, like Andrelton Simmons

[Vanimal46]

Oh boy! I had a question answered today on the Fangraphs chat:

12:32

Vanimal: Are the Twins going to regret trading away Alex Meyer?

12:32
Eno Sarris: They should not have traded away a lotto ticket — even one with a lower hit rate like Meyer — to get from Nolasco to Santiago, no

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Oh boy! I had a question answered today on the Fangraphs chat:

12:32

Vanimal: Are the Twins going to regret trading away Alex Meyer?

12:32
Eno Sarris: They should not have traded away a lotto ticket — even one with a lower hit rate like Meyer — to get from Nolasco to Santiago, no

Yeah, I don't understand why that trade was so highly regarded around here. I'm not sold on the idea dumping Meyer to alleviate 2017 salary was a good idea.

 

If the Twins somehow magically find ways to improve with that salary, maybe it was okay... But objectively, it wasn't a great move. The Twins shouldn't have salary issues either way and they're nowhere near contention. Nolasco went off the books in 16 months no matter whether they traded him or not and he wasn't outrageously expensive in the first place.

 

The Nunez trade was solid, the Nolasco trade was just meh. Doubly so since Santiago has been a crushing failure since the trade.

[TheLeviathan]

 

The Nunez trade was solid, the Nolasco trade was just meh. Doubly so since Santiago has been a crushing failure since the trade.

 

It may help the deal if we stop trying to "fix" everyone as soon as they come here.  

[Guest]

The Nunez trade was solid, the Nolasco trade was just meh. Doubly so since Santiago has been a crushing failure since the trade.

And the Boston trade was going from Abad to worse.

[nicksaviking]

 

Yeah, I don't understand why that trade was so highly regarded around here. I'm not sold on the idea dumping Meyer to alleviate 2017 salary was a good idea.

 

Personally, as a former strong believer in Meyer, I was ready to believe that his latest shoulder issue was going to derail his career before it began. He hadn't pitched in quite some time and the news on him was vague at best and intentionally obscured at worst. It seemed so ominous to me.

 

Now I'm starting to wonder if there was actually much of an injury at all or if Scott Boras was so fed up with the way the Twins (Molitor) handled Meyer that he demanded a trade, yet he still had enough respect for Terry Ryan that he let the differences simmer outside of public view.

 

As for the Nolasco part, I was all for getting him out of town and I didn't much care by what means.

[PseudoSABR]

Until Meyer can make it out of the fifth inning or compile a 100 pitches, I wouldn't let our tin foil get too shiny on the injury conspiracy front.

[KirbyDome89]

 

Yeah, I don't understand why that trade was so highly regarded around here. I'm not sold on the idea dumping Meyer to alleviate 2017 salary was a good idea.

 

If the Twins somehow magically find ways to improve with that salary, maybe it was okay... But objectively, it wasn't a great move. The Twins shouldn't have salary issues either way and they're nowhere near contention. Nolasco went off the books in 16 months no matter whether they traded him or not and he wasn't outrageously expensive in the first place.

 

The Nunez trade was solid, the Nolasco trade was just meh. Doubly so since Santiago has been a crushing failure since the trade.

I think everybody was just glad Nolasco was gone and the Twins couldn't trot him out to get blasted every 5th day. That said, I agree about losing Meyer. I wasn't sad to see Nolasco walk but I wasn't sure how to feel about giving Meyer up in the deal. If Santiago isn't resigned and and the money is used to bring in actual MLB pitchers then then the move makes some sense. If Santiago is tendered a contract, the money saved is negligible and at best you're getting a pitcher who is marginally better than Nolasco. If that is the case they basically gave Meyer away.  

[jimmer]

First part of this article is about Buxton

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/sunday-notes-buxton-bucs-frazier-jays-cy-young-award-more/

 

[Mike Sixel]

Obviously a guess:

 

Dan Szymborski

12:28 Paul Molitor, I suspect the Twins let him play out the last year of his contract

[Mike Sixel]

This is not a Twins' article, but let's just say Molitor is not high on most lists....

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/how-should-we-evaluate-a-manager/#more-232075

 

No surprise to me.

[bluechipper]

Chopper: Is Chih-Wei Hu a potential #3? Or too optimistic?

 

Eric Longenhagen: That might be a little aggressive but how many 70-grade splitters have you seen? That pitch is insane.

[Guest]

This is not a Twins' article, but let's just say Molitor is not high on most lists....

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/how-should-we-evaluate-a-manager/#more-232075

 

No surprise to me.

The article is focused exclusively on things that can be counted, because they haven't figured out how to assess "culture" issues, like giving confidence or running a clubhouse. Molitor would probably score low in those areas, also. Interestingly, these were not strengths of Ryne Sandberg, either.

[Mike Sixel]

 

The article is focused exclusively on things that can be counted, because they haven't figured out how to assess "culture" issues, like giving confidence or running a clubhouse. Molitor would probably score low in those areas, also. Interestingly, these were not strengths of Ryne Sandberg, either.

 

Ya, that is clearly stated....and isn't that what everyone NOT in the clubhouse has to do, assess only what we can see?

[nicksaviking]

 

This is not a Twins' article, but let's just say Molitor is not high on most lists....

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/how-should-we-evaluate-a-manager/#more-232075

 

No surprise to me.

 

One probably could have stopped reading after seeing his criteria for defining a manager:

 

    When he uses his best relievers.
    How rigid his approach to the bullpen is.
    Where he puts his best hitters in the lineup.
    How often he bunts with non-pitchers.

 

Oops.

 

 

[Guest]

Ya, that is clearly stated....and isn't that what everyone NOT in the clubhouse has to do, assess only what we can see?

There are things you can see, apart from game strategy, that could affect culture, such as demeanor, player usage and public comments, and the amount of pining for veteran leadership.

[Mike Sixel]

 

There are things you can see, apart from game strategy, that could affect culture, such as demeanor, player usage and public comments, and the amount of pining for veteran leadership.

 

I suppose, if you followed a team closely....but it's hard to do that for 30 managers so you can compare them to one another.

[ShouldaCouldaWoulda]

From BP chat today, not sure if shared elsewhere. I have heard the velocity comment before, but can anyone verify if he is sitting a tick or two bellow years past?

 

 

John (MN): How down are you on Jose Berrios after a few horrific stints in the majors this year? On one hand, he's young and it's still a relatively small sample. On the other hand, he was embarrassingly awful in the time he did see.

 

Jeffrey Paternostro: So this is the converse of the Gsellman argument. How much do you dock a guy for being really bad in the majors, especially when it *looks* really bad? I never loved Berrios as a prospect, and the fastball velocity isn't special anymore. So I might dock him more than others.

[USAFChief]

I, too, thought he threw harder. I commented on such in the game thread his first appearance.

[Guest]

My guess (hope?) is that he was really stressed this year and will improve as he gets more relaxed.

[Vanimal46]

Berrios wasn't the only one to arrive in MN throwing slower than advertised.

 

There were reports on here that Pat Light was throwing upper 90s heat in Rochester and Boston. We saw 93-95 every outing in MN.

 

Hot sports take: were they so nervous that they started aiming their throws instead of pitching?

[bluechipper]

 

I, too, thought he threw harder. I commented on such in the game thread his first appearance.

Wasn't 92-96 always the scouting report on Berrios? That's what I remembered and that's what we saw with the Twins, hitting 97 on occasion.

[ShouldaCouldaWoulda]

 

Wasn't 92-96 always the scouting report on Berrios? That's what I remembered and that's what we saw with the Twins, hitting 97 on occasion.

I am assuming that whenever velocity is being talked about that guys are referring to where they are 'sitting' now compared to where they were 'sitting' before.

[Mike Sixel]

KLAW and the guy on FGs both stated his velocity was lower in the majors, and if that held, they were less high on him. 

 

No idea why/how/what is happening....Just want it fixed!

[ShouldaCouldaWoulda]

 

KLAW and the guy on FGs both stated his velocity was lower in the majors, and if that held, they were less high on him. 

 

No idea why/how/what is happening....Just want it fixed!

I am guess that KLaw, FG, and BP would all be wrong about information on such a highly regarded prospect either. He must be down in velocity, but nowhere have I seen it noted by how much, or comparing from when.