Article: Trevor May Headed To The Bullpen

[Mike Sixel]

 

Being in the bullpen will not hurt May's contract . If he becomes a great reliever he will make more money than being a mediocre starter.  Nothing says he will be great as a reliever, then again nothing saying he would be great as a starter

 

that simply isn't true......he will lose millions in the time it takes to get to a real contract. 

 

It also pretty much assumes the conclusion, right? Of course a GREAT RP makes more than a bad starter.......what if he is an average starter, and used in middle relief, which guy makes more money that way? Because Ryan has already said he might be the long RP........

[Mike Sixel]

I doubt anyone is surprised by this. I don't like the decision, personally. If the Twins really think he has 4 pitches, that's 2 more than Duffey has......good pitchers with 4 pitches are starters, and not relievers, for a reason....those people are very rare on the planet, and you use them for the most amount of time as possible.

[laloesch]

Well the Twins are collectively screwing themselves and Trevor by doing this.  Just so they don't piss off Nolasco and Milone both of whom are inferior talent in comparison.  

 

They are holding May back and when he approaches free agency he'll remember this and will leave the Twins for another franchise that will allow him to be a starter and whom actually cares about winning over money and washed up egos.

 

Simple as that and i wouldn't blame him one bit if he holds a grudge from this happening two years in a row.  See ya jerks.

Edited March 17, 2016 by laloesch

[nicksaviking]

May was one of the team's top two starters when he was demoted last year. He's got the build of a workhorse, four pitches, good control and strong strikeout potential. I'm missing the signs that are pointing away from him having a solid chance at being a pretty strong starter.

 

I think this was premature considering that both Nolasco and Duffey have been struggling. I'm OK tossing out spring training and making the decisions based on real baseball trends from last year, but that still means Duffey is in and Nolasco is out.

 

Also, May to the pen means one less spot for Burdi/Chargois/Meyer/Pressly/Reed.

[mikelink45]

One key question is - where does he stack up - it had better be in front of Fien and a number of others.  Jepsen, May and Perkins does not match NY or KC, but it is the best we have.  The accumulation of overpaid vets for starting stands in his way and they are not going away this year.  So I guess we can say May is in the pen both 20016 and 2017.

[USAFChief]

I have a hard time getting worked up over the possibility that Trevor May might make less money as a reliever. That's an argument? Seriously?

[Mike Sixel]

 

I have a hard time getting worked up over the possibility that Trevor May might make less money as a reliever. That's an argument? Seriously?

 

It could be if you think it will influence his decision to stay, or not, in a few years, yes.

[Mike Sixel]

 

One key question is - where does he stack up - it had better be in front of Fien and a number of others.  Jepsen, May and Perkins does not match NY or KC, but it is the best we have.  The accumulation of overpaid vets for starting stands in his way and they are not going away this year.  So I guess we can say May is in the pen both 20016 and 2017.

 

It's hard to see how he becomes a starter, after 2.5 years as a reliever, then. 

[Dantes929]

 

IMO that is rose colored glasses..........Teams dont trade #3 pitchers for 5th OF or AAAA  guys like the A's did with the Twins..........Milone is a 4 at best, and I like him, I also like May, but think he is a 4 also, IMO Nolasco is a 4 or possibly 3 as he pitched in the past, Hughes is a 3-4 guy, and Santana and Gibson are solid 3's.......that is a pretty good rotation IMO...........IMO Berrios is a 3 with an upside of MAYBE a 2.

Prune colored glasses IMO.    I don't know why Oakland gave him up for so little but I know he wasn't happy with being demoted after a 3.55 ERA and 6 quality starts in a row.   Oakland had a staff full of #1-3 and were able to acquire another one so Milone was odd guy out.     Kind of a unique case.   I think he is solid.   I know I am optimistic but also find it odd you rate our staff on average as a weak 3 or worse and are happy with it.     3 is average and I think we can be a strong 3.   

[Dantes929]

 

"only 1.3 million" -- How many of us will make 1.3 million in our lifetime? May was a very average starter when he had the chance, now having him in the pen makes the Twins a better team, thats all I care about.

I hope most of us.    Averages out to 32,500 per year for 40 years.      Of course May will make many times this so I agree that I don't feel sorry for him but agree also that it might influence his decision to stay when the time comes.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

"only 1.3 million" -- How many of us will make 1.3 million in our lifetime? May was a very average starter when he had the chance, now having him in the pen makes the Twins a better team, thats all I care about.

Fan salaries are irrelevant to this discussion.

 

The $1.3 million estimate I provided isn't May's current salary -- he wouldn't be due to receive that for another 2 years.  And in the meantime, if he stays in a non-closer relief role, he would have almost zero leverage to get any kind of reasonable arbitration buyout extension, to sacrifice future earnings for some kind of guaranteed minimum.

 

So in the short term, being in the bullpen means Trevor May is probably pitching without a financial safety net for at least the next 2 years, more so than he would be if he was starting.

[blairpaul715]

 

A rotation made up of self rated 3-5's, and that is a pretty good rotation? I am sure glad my standards and hopes have not been converted by endless mediocrity into talking myself into thinking that a rotation of 3-5s is a pretty good rotation.

Ask Kansas City how fun it is to win a World Series with only having #3 to #5 pitchers.......there rotation is no better than ours. Of course, ideally like everyone else, I would like a #1 type pitcher followed by the next best 4 we have, but depending on who you ask, as Twins fans even, you will get a different answer , as most of our pitchers may have different styles, but still are no better than 3's.

[Halsey Hall]

No surprise in going to the pen. He'll be more valuable there, and hopefully get us to the 9th. It's the closer that worries me, and I'd give May even odds that he takes over that spot to regaining a spot in the rotation. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I have a hard time getting worked up over the possibility that Trevor May might make less money as a reliever. That's an argument? Seriously?

I have been presenting it more as a fact, because some folks here seem to be disputing that fact.

 

But if you want to look at it as an argument, consider that relievers (particularly non-closers) are generally less valuable on the open market than starters.  And then ask yourself if it's the best use of resources to generally refuse to sign or trade for a reliever, and instead convert a young starter -- arguably your best starter in terms of strikeout ability -- to the role.

[tobi0040]

I am taken back by how some have already concluded May will be a better reliever than starter.

 

Do we really have a big enough sample already? You could rattle off dozens of pitchers that needed two times the innings May has had before the peripherals turned into actual results

[alarp33]

 

Ask Kansas City how fun it is to win a World Series with only having #3 to #5 pitchers.......there rotation is no better than ours. Of course, ideally like everyone else, I would like a #1 type pitcher followed by the next best 4 we have, but depending on who you ask, as Twins fans even, you will get a different answer , as most of our pitchers may have different styles, but still are no better than 3's.

 

Cueto, Ventura, Volquez = Santana, Gibson, Hughes? I'll take that Royals 3... 

 

Kansas City also had an elite defense, the Twins are forcing Sano to RF

Edited March 17, 2016 by alarp33

[USAFChief]

 

I have been presenting it more as a fact, because some folks here seem to be disputing that fact.

 

But if you want to look at it as an argument, consider that relievers (particularly non-closers) are generally less valuable on the open market than starters.  And then ask yourself if it's the best use of resources to generally refuse to sign or trade for a reliever, and instead convert a young starter -- arguably your best starter in terms of strikeout ability -- to the role.

I don't dispute it might cost him money...but many of the same folks up in arms about Trevor May's potential loss of income turn around and argue the Twins should keep Berrios (for example) in the minors for two weeks to delay free agency by a year.  That certainly has the potential to cost Berrios money down the road, what's the difference?  I suspect nobody really cares about how much money it costs May, they're just looking for reasons to oppose a decisiion they don't agree with.

 

There may be baseball reasons why May to the bullpen doesn't make sense.  Make them.

 

You also won't get any argument from me over the Twins lack of effort in improving the bullpen over the winter, but depending on who they had added, I'd probably still think putting May in the pen was a good idea.  Not to mention, they DIDN'T address the bullpen, so "what ifs" are fun, but don't get guys out in the 8th inning of a 1 run game.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Being in the bullpen will not hurt May's contract . If he becomes a great reliever he will make more money than being a mediocre starter.

Actually this is demonstrably false.  If he's a non-closer reliever, he will make less than a mediocre starter.  Tommy Milone just got $2.8 mil and now $4.5 mil in his first two go-arounds in arbitration, and he's actually been optioned to the AAA each of the last 2 seasons too.  A non-closer reliever, even a good one, will likely only get half that.  And for May, that assumes he stays healthy the next two years too).

 

And in the meantime, as a reliever May has almost zero leverage to get a financial guarantee in advance.  Consider Kyle Gibson, who after 2.5 years of decent starting pitching was #1 on Jeremy's "Ten to Extend" list, looking at an estimated potential guarantee of ~$30 mil already.  Gibson could probably go to the team and guarantee himself $20 million today, with a million dollar signing bonus up front, and be completely set for generations no matter what happens to his pitching arm tomorrow.  Next winter, May will have an identical amount of service time to Gibson presently, but with much of it spent in the bullpen, he will have almost zero leverage to get such a guarantee.

 

And like I said in a previous post, this isn't an argument that the Twins should be concerned about May's bank account.  It's just a fact that May will earn less and have less security in a relief role, especially early in his career.  If you want to bring the team argument into it, consider that it is a poor use of resources given the market.  Good relievers can absolutely make notably less than mediocre starters.  Darren O'Day has had one of the most effective four year runs of relief pitching ever, and got $31 million this winter, about 60% of the guarantee that Ricky Nolasco got two years ago.  After his Detroit deal expires, Mike Pelfrey will have received almost as much as O'Day ($27 over four years).  Even a more "elite" setup arm in Andrew Miller, signed to close in New York, only fetched a $36 mil guarantee.

 

These are just a few of the examples that demonstrate how relievers have less market value than starters, calling into serious question the Twins strategy of making big FA investments in mid-tier starters, generally refusing to make any investments in adding outside relief help, and in fact converting promising cheap internal starting talent to relief roles instead.

[Willihammer]

Yeah I was really hoping, naively I guess, that more of the kids would be stepping up. But that didn't seem to happen. Tonkin with another lousy performance. Meyer has done nothing too impressive. We're back to auditioning the dime-a-dozen Aaron Thompson, Buddy Boshers and Dan Runzlers of the world.

 

Its impossible to imagine that bullpen without May in it anymore.

[Platoon]

Listening to the game yesterday, I like what TR did: he was straight forward and showed respect for May and his potential to be a starter.

May took it like a man; he showed respect for the team and those making the decision.

Honestly, I don't think there was any super-secret plan involved here to keep May in the BP. He was a victim of his success last year.

 

It is not all that uncommon for a pitcher to come up in MiLB as a starter and begin his MLB career in BP. Chris Sale is one [for 2 years], Adam Wainwright another. May is 26, which makes it a little strange. But that seems like "The Twins Way" when handling MiLB starters.

His success last year was the reason for "The SuperSecret Plan"! It wasn't the part about being in the pen, it was the part about not telling him! BTW I don't think May started his MLB career in the pen? Edited March 17, 2016 by Platoon

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I don't dispute it might cost him money...but many of the same folks up in arms about Trevor May's potential loss of income turn around and argue the Twins should keep Berrios (for example) in the minors for two weeks to delay free agency by a year.  That certainly has the potential to cost Berrios money down the road, what's the difference?  I suspect nobody really cares about how much money it costs May, they're just looking for reasons to oppose a decisiion they don't agree with.

 

There may be baseball reasons why May to the bullpen doesn't make sense.  Make them.

Did you read my post?  There is a baseball argument there.  It's a poor use of resources.  We've handed out tons of money to mid-tier FA starters, done almost nothing to acquire good relievers outside the draft, and now we're converting a cheaper and arguably better (certainly younger, with more strikeout potential) starter to relief.

 

I don't care about the player bank accounts, but I am concerned that my team is not handling their resources rationally.

 

That said, given where we are today, having invested in those mid-tier FA starters and having not acquired more relievers, there's probably little else to do but move May to the pen at the moment.  But I want to be clear that we've painted ourselves into that corner, and if we continue making decisions like this, it is going to limit us more in the future.

[tobi0040]

 

There may be baseball reasons why May to the bullpen doesn't make sense.  Make them.

 

.

 

I will give it a try.

 

1 – May has not failed as a starter and we don’t know at this point if he would make a better starter or reliever.  He simply does not have the innings yet.

 

2 – Roger Clemens career WAR is 139.   Mariano Rivera’s career WAR is 55.

 

3 – Until we can conclude he is not going to be a good starter, that is a lot of wins we are leaving on the table.

[nicksaviking]

 

Yeah I was really hoping, naively I guess, that more of the kids would be stepping up. But that didn't seem to happen. Tonkin with another lousy performance. Meyer has done nothing too impressive. We're back to auditioning the dime-a-dozen Aaron Thompson, Buddy Boshers and Dan Runzlers of the world.

 

Its impossible to imagine that bullpen without May in it anymore.

 

Burdi, Chargois, Graham and Pressly have made life tough on the front office. Small sample size surely, but I'm guessing none of them were/are front-runners for a bullpen spot but you can't really look any of them in the eye and tell them that they don't deserve a spot based on what they've done so far.

 

If Spring Training actually is an open tryout that is.

[howieramone2]

 

Short of a couple injuries this was a forgone conclusion. Some other teams would have packaged Milone and another MiLB player for a trade, ate Nolascos salary, moved May back to the rotation, and used a combo of in house younger relievers, with one good acquisition. I know that's expensive, and proactive. But it could have been done. The Twins will let this play out for the first half of the year. It's a well known fact that games lost in April and May don't count in the standings! I don't disagree that May is an excellent late inning reliever. That said, the Twins aren't exactly sitting on a SP gold mine either!

Do you have names for those some other teams? Sounds to me like fan board moves.

[nicksaviking]

 

I don't dispute it might cost him money...but many of the same folks up in arms about Trevor May's potential loss of income turn around and argue the Twins should keep Berrios (for example) in the minors for two weeks to delay free agency by a year.  That certainly has the potential to cost Berrios money down the road, what's the difference?  I suspect nobody really cares about how much money it costs May, they're just looking for reasons to oppose a decisiion they don't agree with.

 

There may be baseball reasons why May to the bullpen doesn't make sense.  Make them.

 

You also won't get any argument from me over the Twins lack of effort in improving the bullpen over the winter, but depending on who they had added, I'd probably still think putting May in the pen was a good idea.  Not to mention, they DIDN'T address the bullpen, so "what ifs" are fun, but don't get guys out in the 8th inning of a 1 run game.

 

I don't care about money for either Berrios or May, all I care about is controlling a good asset for as long as they are useful. Keeping Berrios in the minors an extra couple of weeks and keeping May a starter would seem like the best way to keep them from bolting early.

 

As for the baseball reasons, I'd rather have 180 innings of May and 70 of Burdi/Chargois than 180 innings of Nolasco/Milone and 70 innings of May. Much rather.

[howieramone2]

 

May was one of the team's top two starters when he was demoted last year. He's got the build of a workhorse, four pitches, good control and strong strikeout potential. I'm missing the signs that are pointing away from him having a solid chance at being a pretty strong starter.

 

I think this was premature considering that both Nolasco and Duffey have been struggling. I'm OK tossing out spring training and making the decisions based on real baseball trends from last year, but that still means Duffey is in and Nolasco is out.

 

Also, May to the pen means one less spot for Burdi/Chargois/Meyer/Pressly/Reed.

Just look at the stats for his first 25 starts. If he couldn't pitch out of the pen, he may not have even made the team. Anyway we can stop overrating board favorites?

[Platoon]

Do you have names for those some other teams? Sounds to me like fan board moves.

You can give anyone away, or trade anyone when you eat some of the salary, which I was proposing. Just a different way of eating his salary! I could have puncuated it better, but the thought was intended! . Btw, I don't do fan board moves! Any of this was going to be a financial loss for the Twins to make roster room. It's the fallout from past decisions made by non fan board management!

[USAFChief]

 

I don't care about money for either Berrios or May, all I care about is controlling a good asset for as long as they are useful. Keeping Berrios in the minors an extra couple of weeks and keeping May a starter would seem like the best way to keep them from bolting early.

 

As for the baseball reasons, I'd rather have 180 innings of May and 70 of Burdi/Chargois than 180 innings of Nolasco/Milone and 70 innings of May. Much rather.

70 innings of Burdi/Chargois for the 2016 Twins would most likely be a disaster.  Chargois has 64 professional innings total, 33 above A ball.  Burdi is probably a better bet to be ready at some point this year or next, but certainly can't be considered a sure thing in April, 2016.

 

In fact, were the Twins counting on either of them for prominent bullpen roles to begin 2016, THAT would be something to complain about.  Loudly.    

[nicksaviking]

 

Just look at the stats for his first 25 starts. If he couldn't pitch out of the pen, he may not have even made the team. Anyway we can stop overrating board favorites?

 

May was in the process of being the top starter for the team in June. He had two rough starts, one in April and one in May, but he finally found his control and was the only guy in the rotation that could strand a runner at 3rd with nobody out. He was on a roll and showing the potential that everyone had been hoping to see.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Just look at the stats for his first 25 starts. If he couldn't pitch out of the pen, he may not have even made the team. Anyway we can stop overrating board favorites?

May had a 7.88 ERA in his debut season, and a 4.37 ERA in his second season when he was moved to the pen.

 

Gibson had a 6.53 ERA in his debut season, and a 4.47 ERA in his second season.

 

If you want to add in FIP and strikeout and walk rates, it arguably helps May's case relative to Gibson's too.

 

The stats are not terribly conclusive here.  It could just be that May had the unfortunate luck to come along after Gibson and 4 other starters, making him the low man on the totem pole.