Terry Ryan- I am not a fan

[old nurse]

 

Last year Bryant, Schwarber, Russell all made their Major League debuts - they signed Lester last winter before any of that happened.  Soler and Baez had very minimal experience heading into 2015.  

 

I'm aware the Cubs talent is a little more high end than the Twins, which is why I wrote that it was earlier. 

 

I pointed out an example of a team who went to the NLCS with a bunch of rookies, and is favored to win the World Series with a bunch of 2nd year guys... because they supplemented their weak spots via free agency.  Something the Twins refuse to do

You may be aware that talent the Cubs had was more high end than the Twins have.  The holes the Twins have to fill to compete were also far mare numerous. 

As far as the Twins signing free agents goes, Casey, Ervin, Ricky, Phil and Kurt say hello. Last year also had Hunter, Boyer, Robinson, Pelfrey and Fryer as free agents.

[alarp33]

 

You may be aware that talent the Cubs had was more high end than the Twins have.  The holes the Twins have to fill to compete were also far mare numerous. 

As far as the Twins signing free agents goes, Casey, Ervin, Ricky, Phil and Kurt say hello. Last year also had Hunter, Boyer, Robinson, Pelfrey and Fryer as free agents.

 

The Cubs will have 2 home grown players in their Opening Day lineup, Schwarber and Bryant. 

 

You are missing the point, but thanks for your input.  

[LaBombo]

 

...

 

BUT ... there is no way the Twins need another starter. As it is, the team has too many starters and one or two guys who are more or less guaranteed roster spots because of their salaries.

 

Phil Hughes, if he can return to form from 2014 (maybe, maybe not) is a top-end starter. Ervin Santana is solid. Kyle Gibson is solid. Tommy Milone is a decent back-end guy. Tyler Duffy was excellent as a rookie late last season. Trevor May SHOULD be starting. Jose Berrios deserves a shot this year. Ricky Nolasco will probably end up in the bullpen but could start, too. And remember that Alex Meyer is still there and just one year ago was considered the potential rotation savior.

 

That's like 8 billion starters. The team needs to shed starters, if anything. Oh, sure, there were lots of FA starters who would have been improvements. But they cost a ton of money and a lot of years and would have continued to hamstring the team when there are cheaper options coming up through the ranks. 

 

8 billion is what's still owed on Mauer's contract.    The number of prospective Twins starters currently in the organization is only 7 billion.    I get them confused sometimes too.

 

But 7 billion is also about how many starters the Twins have been through since 2011.    Last season was the first since then that the Twins have used fewer than 11 different starters in the rotation.

 

Quantity may have a quality all its own, as Stalin famously stated, but it's a much handier saying when you're trying to overwhelm NATO with Warsaw Pact tanks than when you're the Twins and trying desperately not to trail all of MLB in starter ERA, IP, and K/9.    And the quality of their starters is wide open to question.

 

Totally agree with you that Gibson is a good bet to be solid again.    Santana is an equally good bet to be neither a gas, liquid or plasma, but otherwise he doesn't seem like a lock to achieve "solid" status.    Hughes is a complete mystery at this point, Duffy has 10 starts in the majors, and the Twins still appear determined to use May, their best starter, in the pen.    Nobody knows what to expect from Berrios. and Nolasco seems to be hanging around for the sole purpose of reassuring Joe Mauer that the Twins are still utterly unaware of the concept of sunk cost.

 

Even so, I'm ok with Ryan not signing Latos, but he's a worthy yardstick for just how 'stocked' the Twins' rotation is.   While unquestionably flaky, Latos is just 28 and yet he's managed an xFIP under 4 in every one of his six seasons since his rookie campaign.  He averaged a WAR of 4.0 from 2010-2013.

 

By comparison, of the six returning 2015 starters (excluding May, as the Twins seem to be), only two of them, Gibson and Duffy, had xFIPs below 4 last season.    Gibson did it for just the second time in his career, and Duffy managed to sustain that rate for just 58 innings.    Only Gibson's WAR exceeded 2.0.

 

In other words, if you're Terry Ryan the reason not to sign Mat Latos is that you don't like either Mat Latos or his cat, Cat Latos, or Mat's chances of returning to his 2010-2013 form.    But you definitely don't pass on Mat Latos because your rotation is overflowing with talent.

[old nurse]

 

The Cubs will have 2 home grown players in their Opening Day lineup, Schwarber and Bryant. 

 

You are missing the point, but thanks for your input. 

Soler was an international free agent that spent 2 1/2 years in their minor league developing. Fowler, Montero, Rizzo, Russel are position players they traded for. Szczur on the bench is home grown, LaStella traded for.  Hendricks, Arrietta in the starting rotation were trades for as well as Strop, and Wood  in the bullpen.

Rondon is a rule v pickup.

The core of the team was not built through   free agency. Over the last four years they have had better talent to trade to get prospects to build a team. It really helps to have an opposing GM think your player is going to make the difference in a playoff run.

[TheLeviathan]

 

I pointed out an example of a team who went to the NLCS with a bunch of rookies, and is favored to win the World Series with a bunch of 2nd year guys... because they supplemented their weak spots via free agency.  Something the Twins refuse to do

 

I don't disagree that the Twins use FA poorly.  But the Cubs aren't where they are because of FA signings.  Most of their key talent wasn't bought on the FA market.

 

They're ahead of the Twins because they did a better job using roughly similar assets to produce a better group of young talent.  The Cubs just hit gold time after time.  

 

Though, one big difference is Soler.  The Twins just categorically refuse to participate in that market for some reason I don't, and will never, understand.

[alarp33]

 

I don't disagree that the Twins use FA poorly.  But the Cubs aren't where they are because of FA signings.  Most of their key talent wasn't bought on the FA market.

 

They're ahead of the Twins because they did a better job using roughly similar assets to produce a better group of young talent.  The Cubs just hit gold time after time.  

 

Though, one big difference is Soler.  The Twins just categorically refuse to participate in that market for some reason I don't, and will never, understand.

 

Right. I mentioned FA but obviously I prefer their method of operation overall... including the trades and FA signings.  The Twins may have not had a Samardjia to trade, but anyone could've jumped in and gotten the devalued Arrieta from the Orioles for example.  

 

Just was pointing out the stark contrast between how a smart team operates, and how the Twins operate.  

[TheLeviathan]

Personally, I think the smartest thing the Cubs have done is concentrate their early draft picks on hitters rather than pitchers.  They've found smart ways to supplement their pitching staff and have gotten high caliber hitters to come up much more quickly with much more certainty.  

[alarp33]

 

Personally, I think the smartest thing the Cubs have done is concentrate their early draft picks on hitters rather than pitchers.  They've found smart ways to supplement their pitching staff and have gotten high caliber hitters to come up much more quickly with much more certainty.  

 

Not only that, trading a young pitching prospect with injury concerns for Anthony Rizzo (when they needed pitching at the ML level)

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Right. I mentioned FA but obviously I prefer their method of operation overall... including the trades and FA signings.  The Twins may have not had a Samardjia to trade, but anyone could've jumped in and gotten the devalued Arrieta from the Orioles for example.  

 

Just was pointing out the stark contrast between how a smart team operates, and how the Twins operate.  

I actually agree with the first paragraph.

 

But the second paragraph is the kind of thinking that really irks me. Yes, the Cubs are a fantastic organization. They're extremely smart.

 

That doesn't mean the Twins aren't smart as well, it simply means they're not as smart as the Cubs.

 

The Twins do a lot right. A lot. They took a 63 win team with virtually no future and turned it into an 83 win team with some of the best prospects/young players in all of baseball.

 

That doesn't happen on accident; blind squirrels don't find a nut multiple times. If it was that easy, teams like the Pirates wouldn't have two decade runs of complete and utter ineptitude. Every team would be "back in it" within half a decade.

 

There are plenty of ways to disagree with the Twins and their approach without implying they aren't smart. It's one of the traits of the internet that drives me up a wall: something is either the best in the world or it's the worst. Our conversational default is hyperbole.

 

We can all agree the Cubs are one of (if not the) best run organizations in baseball without implying the Twins are blundering knuckleheads who spend most of the day trying to hammer a square peg into a round hole and drooling on themselves.

[alarp33]

 

 

 

There are plenty of ways to disagree with the Twins and their approach without implying they aren't smart. It's one of the traits of the internet that drives me up a wall: something is either the best in the world or it's the worst. Our conversational default is hyperbole.

 

We can all agree the Cubs are one of (if not the) best run organizations in baseball without implying the Twins are blundering knuckleheads who spend most of the day trying to hammer a square peg into a round hole and drooling on themselves.

 

I don't think the Twins are blundering knuckleheads in general, I think they are if you compare them to a team like the Cubs, with Epstein and Hoyer around, maybe the best run team in the league. 

 

There is a stark contrast with how they operate, and how the Twins operate is my point.  

 

My biggest issue with how the Twins are run, is I don't think they do a good job at all of seeing the big picture.  When the 2011 collapse happened, it was fairly easy to see how barren the farm system was... at no point did they ever start a real rebuild. For example, in my opinion they didn't trade Perkins because he was from MN and fans liked him - even though 90 loss teams don't need closers. Suzuki extension, Hughes extension, Nolasco + Santana etc.    

 

When they signed Park this Winter, it obviously had a gigantic trickle down effect on the rest of the roster - they seemed totally unprepared for that.  I mean Sano didn't even play OF in Winter ball.  

 

A very narrow minded approach.  And now that they are potentially nearing a contention window... they have sat on their hands and done nothing to try and make a run.  

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I don't think the Twins are blundering knuckleheads in general, I think they are if you compare them to a team like the Cubs, with Epstein and Hoyer around, maybe the best run team in the league. 

 

There is a stark contrast with how they operate, and how the Twins operate is my point.  

 

My biggest issue with how the Twins are run, is I don't think they do a good job at all of seeing the big picture.  When the 2011 collapse happened, it was fairly easy to see how barren the farm system was... at no point did they ever start a real rebuild. For example, in my opinion they didn't trade Perkins because he was from MN and fans liked him - even though 90 loss teams don't need closers. Suzuki extension, Hughes extension, Nolasco + Santana etc.    

 

When they signed Park this Winter, it obviously had a gigantic trickle down effect on the rest of the roster - they seemed totally unprepared for that.  I mean Sano didn't even play OF in Winter ball.  

 

A very narrow minded approach.  And now that they are potentially nearing a contention window... they have sat on their hands and done nothing to try and make a run.  

Those are fair points. I agree with many of them and mildly disagree with a few.

 

I merely wish people were more careful with words. There is no way to interpret this:

 

"stark contrast between how a smart team operates, and how the Twins operate"

 

That doesn't involve the Twins being "not smart".

[alarp33]

 

Those are fair points. I agree with many of them and mildly disagree with a few.

 

I merely wish people were more careful with words. There is no way to interpret this:

 

"stark contrast between how a smart team operates, and how the Twins operate"

 

That doesn't involve the Twins being "not smart".

 

The Cubs are running a smart 2016 franchise.  The Twins seem to be attempting what worked (debatable) in 2003.  

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

The Cubs are running a smart 2016 franchise.  The Twins seem to be attempting what worked (debatable) in 2003.  

That approach may work, though... Is it terribly different than what the Pirates and Royals have done in recent years? Sure, the Royals traded for Shields but they only won the World Series after he left. Both teams - you can probably throw the Astros in here as well - built aggressively from the farm and relied on internal players for success. Sure, they picked up a player here and there but the truly important players came from within.

 

I don't agree with much of what the Twins have done in recent years but it's far from certain their approach is fundamentally broken.

 

If they win 88 games this season - a real possibility - what does that say about their approach? It's not the route I would have taken the team but personal disagreement is not equivalent to failure. It's simply... Different.

[Mike Sixel]

Brock raises a good point.....saying something nice about another organization is NOT THE SAME as saying something bad about the Twins.......but, in this USA, it apparently is for many people.

[alarp33]

 

That approach may work, though... Is it terribly different than what the Pirates and Royals have done in recent years? Sure, the Royals traded for Shields but they only won the World Series after he left. Both teams - you can probably throw the Astros in here as well - built aggressively from the farm and relied on internal players for success. Sure, they picked up a player here and there but the truly important players came from within.

 

I don't agree with much of what the Twins have done in recent years but it's far from certain their approach is fundamentally broken.

 

If they win 88 games this season - a real possibility - what does that say about their approach? It's not the route I would have taken the team but personal disagreement is not equivalent to failure. It's simply... Different.

 

I'm not at all saying you can't win with homegrown players... in fact the Astros are exactly how I would have built the Twins if I were in charge starting in 2011... An aggressive rebuild; sell off everything of value, shrewd trades and drafting (Correa underslot, McCullers later) etc. They wouldn't have given up a draft pick to sign another #3-4 starter with no upside.  

 

We'll have to see how 2016 plays out.  If 88 wins is a real possibility, you can't discount the fact that 70 wins is also a real possibility  (Seeing as most projections have them in the mid to upp 70 range).  If 88 wins happens, I sure as hell hope an aggressive offseason is planned to take an even bigger step next year.  If 70 wins happens, I hope they clean house in the front office, but fear/know they won't. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

We'll have to see how 2016 plays out.  If 88 wins is a real possibility, you can't discount the fact that 70 wins is also a real possibility

Absolutely. At this point of the "rebuild" (or whatever you want to call it), the proof is in the pudding.

 

We have entered the world of "results matter". Building the team is no longer an exercise in the abstract; we're at the point where MLB wins are what define the success/failure of the front office.

 

The one caveat being insanely bad luck through injury in the vein of the 2011 Twins or 2014 Rangers. That's the one aspect of an MLB club no team in baseball can control.

[old nurse]

 

Right. I mentioned FA but obviously I prefer their method of operation overall... including the trades and FA signings.  The Twins may have not had a Samardjia to trade, but anyone could've jumped in and gotten the devalued Arrieta from the Orioles for example.  

 

Just was pointing out the stark contrast between how a smart team operates, and how the Twins operate.  

The 2013 Twins did not have a starter that season that they could have traded for to a franchise going for WS victory.   Sorry, not any team.    Baltimore also needed a backup catcher, which the Twins really did not have to offer as Pinto was still in AA

[TheLeviathan]

 

The 2013 Twins did not have a starter that season that they could have traded for to a franchise going for WS victory.   Sorry, not any team.    Baltimore also needed a backup catcher, which the Twins really did not have to offer as Pinto was still in AA

 

They might have if they had chosen the right pitcher to sign.

 

The idea that the Twins had absolutely no way of acquiring Arrieta is just preposterous.  The Cubs targeted a smart buy-low candidate, rolled the dice, and got seriously paid.  The Twins should've been looking to do the same thing and instead were stacking the rotation with the Kevin Correias of the world.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

They might have if they had chosen the right pitcher to sign.

 

The idea that the Twins had absolutely no way of acquiring Arrieta is just preposterous.  The Cubs targeted a smart buy-low candidate, rolled the dice, and got seriously paid.  The Twins should've been looking to do the same thing and instead were stacking the rotation with the Kevin Correias of the world.

Kevin Correia was fine, really... But, at best, his ceiling is "warm body". A team that bad should also be taking risks on upside players because, well ****, what do they have to lose?

[jimmer]

I suppose one could conclude Correia was fine IF the other two pitchers acquired that offseason weren't Worley (recovering/not quite back from injury) and Pelfrey (same as Worley).  

 

Not exactly a GM doing everything possible to seriously improve the rotation for that upcoming season.

[Otto von Ballpark]

To be fair, we did also sign Rich Harden that offseason.  Although his timeline was always pretty sketchy, he was hardly a substitute for a more immediate Kazmir type signing.

[jimmer]

 

To be fair, we did also sign Rich Harden that offseason.  Although his timeline was always pretty sketchy, he was hardly a substitute for a more immediate Kazmir type signing.

oh yeah, forgot about him.  Not exactly a redeeming pickup.  :-)

[Brock Beauchamp]

To be fair, we did also sign Rich Harden that offseason. Although his timeline was always pretty sketchy, he was hardly a substitute for a more immediate Kazmir type signing.

Yeah, I was all on board with the Harden signing but it was a real long shot.

 

When I say "risky player with upside", I'm talking about stuff like the Pelfrey signing, except a player with more upside. A "good" Pelfrey is still a mediocre pitcher.

 

Kazmir is the obvious and best example.

[old nurse]

 

They might have if they had chosen the right pitcher to sign.

 

The idea that the Twins had absolutely no way of acquiring Arrieta is just preposterous.  The Cubs targeted a smart buy-low candidate, rolled the dice, and got seriously paid.  The Twins should've been looking to do the same thing and instead were stacking the rotation with the Kevin Correias of the world.

In the scrap heap of 2012 starting pitchers that switched teams Feldman, Kazmir and Liriano were the ones that performed.  The sad truth was Correa was the second best at that point.  A 2 year contract really prevented him from being a rental.  A pitcher looking to build value for themselves on a one year contract probably wasn't going to sign with a low profile team. Even then, Liriano was not likely to sign with the Twins, As the Twins had a friend on the Skeeters in Gaetti, I would not think it unreasonable to say Kazmir  did not want anything to do with the Twins.  Feldman was the only one to perform. He was also the only one that signed a one year contract likely to perform.  That is a low percentage bet with free agent starting pitching.  Easy to say in hindsight, not easy to do in practice.

[old nurse]

 

 

Kevin Correia was fine, really... But, at best, his ceiling is "warm body". A team that bad should also be taking risks on upside players because, well ****, what do they have to lose?

True, a team like the Twins should have been looking for upside pitchers. Some of the upside pitchers that are risks were ones coming off injury like Pelfrey and Harden.  Then there are the  pitchers who had seemed to lost their way like Kazmir and Liriano. They would only come to the Twins if better options were not available.  They were not going to come and have Anderson as their pitching coach, as there was no track record of helping them .   Searge is the pitch whisperer,     Francona  managed Boston to World Series wins.  Decision time, who would you rather play for.

[TheLeviathan]

 

They were not going to come and have Anderson as their pitching coach

 

Again, that's on the Twins.  If we're going to compare the positive moves by the Cubs vs. the Twins, than having an unattractive pitching coach and finding that one guy that worked out is a feather in the cap of the Cubs.

 

At the end of the day it's the team's job (specifically, Ryan) to find the "one guy that worked out" and if he doesn't, than he failed relative to that other team.  

 

Worse yet, it's a mindset for the Twins.  They take gambles on injury bouncebacks, but rarely do you see that AAAA player or young guy that scuffled be the target.  You were mocking the idea of Arrieta being a smart target for months because you failed to recognize the opportunity.  Just like the Twins seem to do quite often.  If you are going to be bad, at least be bad with some hope of a miracle.

 

The only way Correia turns into a miracle is if the hand of god itself reaches into the stadium to transform him.  With Arrieta there was at least pedigree.  Yeah, his transformation is a shock even to those of us that advocated getting him.  But that's what investing in upside does - it pleasantly surprises you.

[old nurse]

 

I don't disagree that the Twins use FA poorly.  But the Cubs aren't where they are because of FA signings.  Most of their key talent wasn't bought on the FA market.

 

They're ahead of the Twins because they did a better job using roughly similar assets to produce a better group of young talent.  The Cubs just hit gold time after time.  

 

Though, one big difference is Soler.  The Twins just categorically refuse to participate in that market for some reason I don't, and will never, understand.

Javier Baez or Levi Michael?  Almonte or Buxton?   Bryant or Stewart? Schwarber or Gordon.  Happ or Jay? Similar draft picks? One or two slots up may make a difference. Rondon or Pressley?  It even matters in rule5

Similar  assests to trade. Twins equivalent for Cashmier and Samadiija available for trade?  After 2011 what player did they have from their farm system to trade for top talent

[LaBombo]

 

Kevin Correia was fine, really... But, at best, his ceiling is "warm body". A team that bad should also be taking risks on upside players because, well ****, what do they have to lose?

While I totally agree with the notion of a losing team gambling on upside (within reason), it seems to me that the Twins and most other teams perceive that what they have to lose in down years is the illusion of competence.

 

Losing teams rely on no-upside veterans all the time, and they do it because they (wrongly, I think) believe that casual fans will desert in droves if the team descends below some arbitrary level of futility. 

 

Bill James noted that phenomenon twenty years ago, citing the Detroit Tigers prior to the 1996 season as an example.     The Tigers had devolved into an old, fat, slow, beerball league team of DH's and bad pitchers, but instead of cleaning house, they doubled down with more old, slow fatties.

 

James wrote something to the effect that 'the groundwork for many a 110-plus loss season is built at least in part on the fear of losing 100 games in prior seasons'.    The Tigers finally began to rebuild in earnest that year, but they had waited too long, and went on to lose 109 games that season.

 

For the Twins, Kevin Correia was like the Bill Pullman circa Independence Day of starters.    Pullman was a known quantity, and nobody ever got fired for casting him.  You cast him as president with the idea that nobody but Bill Pullman's family is coming to see Independence Day to see Bill, but nobody is skipping the movie because they hate Bill Pullman.

 

Good way to cast a movie.    Bad way to build a winning baseball team.    As much as any signing, Correia reinforced for me the suspicion that the Twins were entirely comfortable settling into a kind of exhibition mode while they waited to harvest their maturing crop of young stars like Gibson and Meyer.

[Platoon]

Two other issues that stifle the Twins in moving assets for prospects. The refusal of Ownership/FO to eat a bad contract. And the oft stated Ryan belief that you don't sign a FA, or extend an existing player and then trade them. His spoken belief is that players won't sign with a team if they think they could be traded in the first year or two of a contract. That philosophy prohibits you from catching lightening in a bottle and making a move. See Willingham and Suzuki. Or for that matter an extended Dozier. A team like the Twins in 2014 had no business keeping Kurt after the AS break. Pinto could have finished the season, what difference would it have made?

[Brock Beauchamp]

While I totally agree with the notion of a losing team gambling on upside (within reason), it seems to me that the Twins and most other teams perceive that what they have to lose in down years is the illusion of competence.

 

Losing teams rely on no-upside veterans all the time, and they do it because they (wrongly, I think) believe that casual fans will desert in droves if the team descends below some arbitrary level of futility.

 

Bill James noted that phenomenon twenty years ago, citing the Detroit Tigers prior to the 1996 season as an example. The Tigers had devolved into an old, fat, slow, beerball league team of DH's and bad pitchers, but instead of cleaning house, they doubled down with more old, slow fatties.

 

James wrote something to the effect that 'the groundwork for many a 110-plus loss season is built at least in part on the fear of losing 100 games in prior seasons'. The Tigers finally began to rebuild in earnest that year, but they had waited too long, and went on to lose 109 games that season.

 

For the Twins, Kevin Correia was like the Bill Pullman circa Independence Day of starters. Pullman was a known quantity, and nobody ever got fired for casting him. You cast him as president with the idea that nobody but Bill Pullman's family is coming to see Independence Day to see Bill, but nobody is skipping the movie because they hate Bill Pullman.

 

Good way to cast a movie. Bad way to build a winning baseball team. As much as any signing, Correia reinforced for me the suspicion that the Twins were entirely comfortable settling into a kind of exhibition mode while they waited to harvest their maturing crop of young stars like Gibson and Meyer.

Great post.