Terry Ryan- I am not a fan

[clone52]

 

Moving the goalposts, once again. 

 

You said the Twins were 2-3 years away from being a serious contender so they should do nothing.  The Cubs have slightly more young talent than the Twins, but they don't seem to have an issue "going for it" when their guys are 2nd year players?

 

I didn't say they should do nothing.  I said they shouldn't spending $125 million for an Ace starting pitcher.  I think the probably should have signed another reliever, but with some of the salaries out there, it might not have been worth it.  I would have been fine with trading Plouffe if they could have gotten something good for him, but waiting to see how Sano does in the outfield is fine too and could turn out even better.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

If the young guys don't develop like we expect them to, then in 2018, we won't have 4 years and $85 million on the books for a pitcher on a rebuilding team.

If we're rebuilding again in 2018, 4/85 on the books isn't going to matter.  And we'd have made a better effort to win in 2016-2017 before the thing (apparently) collapsed.

[clone52]

 

Latos has huge upside, yet not a peep heard about the twins pursuing him.

 I want the same thing you guys want, another WS title. Sadly, I do not see Ryan getting us one..

 

Why did the Twins need a starter on a 1 year contract when we are already complaining about Berrios starting in the minors and May being stuck in the bullpen?

[clone52]

 

If we're rebuilding again in 2018, 4/85 on the books isn't going to matter.  And we'd have made a better effort to win in 2016-2017 before the thing (apparently) collapsed.

 

Well, if they had signed Cueto, that would just push Berrios even furthur down the list of starters.

 

Also, the Twins do gel and make a run in 2016 or 2017, they can always trade for top end pitcher mid season.

[Mike Sixel]

 

So, it usually takes a few years for top prospects to gel.  Look at the Royals last year.  Hosmer, Perez, Moustakas was in year 5.  Cain in year 6.  Gordon in year 9.

 

Even look at Twins in the past.  Hunter, Miekiewicz, Jones, Koskie had to take their lumps before they really became contenders.

 

How many World Series teams have their most of their best hitters in their first 2 or 3 years of major league experience?  I doubt it happens often.  

 

I still think the Twins are 2 or 3 years away from being a serious contender and it doesn't make sense to make risky, expensive moves right now.

 

If the young guys don't develop like we expect them to, then in 2018, we won't have 4 years and $85 million on the books for a pitcher on a rebuilding team.

 

2-3 more years away....the goal posts are now out to 2019......

[alarp33]

 

I didn't say they should do nothing.  I said they shouldn't spending $125 million for an Ace starting pitcher.  I think the probably should have signed another reliever, but with some of the salaries out there, it might not have been worth it.  I would have been fine with trading Plouffe if they could have gotten something good for him, but waiting to see how Sano does in the outfield is fine too and could turn out even better. 

 

Right, because signing 30 year old #4/5 starters and hoping they become #3 starters is a strategy that has worked so well for them.  

[Mike Sixel]

 

Well, if they had signed Cueto, that would just push Berrios even furthur down the list of starters.

 

Also, the Twins do gel and make a run in 2016 or 2017, they can always trade for top end pitcher mid season.

 

You expect TR to trade for a big time player, and give up top prospects at the deadline? You might want to alter your expectations. 

[USAFChief]

No, I'm arguing that signing a guy like Cueto to that kind of deal isn't worth the risk when you have some high end prospects coming up in the system. Not to mention that the first couple of years of that contract would include the time when the young Twins are taking their lumps. Does a guy like Cueto put the Twins over the top when guys like Rosario, Buxton, Sano, Berrios, May, Park, etc are going through their Freshman and Sophmore slumps?

 

Now in 2018 if the young guys have developed and the twins need an Ace to pull it altogether, I'd be in favor of big money deal to bring in an Ace. Like what the Royals did last year. Their young players had several years in the majors to develop and the Royals went all in.

This seems at odds with your earlier post about tieing up too much money in 2020 and beyond. If you wouldn't want to sign an ace now, because you'll need the money to pay all the young superstars in 5 years, how does it make sense to wait three years, and THEN sign an ace, when all those young superstars are three years closer to arb/free agency?

[clone52]

 

2-3 more years away....the goal posts are now out to 2019......

Nope, Buxton, Sano and Rosario all got their first taste of major league baseball last year, so 2018 would be year 3.

[clone52]

 

This seems at odds with your earlier post about tieing up too much money in 2020 and beyond. If you wouldn't want to sign an ace now, because you'll need the money to pay all the young superstars in 5 years, how does it make sense to wait three years, and THEN sign an ace, when all those young superstars are three years closer to arb/free agency?

 

Good point.  However, I understand taking the risk and spending the money (or trading prospects) when its likely that you're very close to winning right now.  I just think there are too many question marks this year to take the risk of signing a guy like that right now.  Do the Twins have a catcher?  Is Mauer completely washed up?  Will Park be a bust.  How quickly will Sano transition from Adam Dunn to Miguel Cabrera as pitchers adjust to him and he adjusts to pitchers.  How long will it take for Buxton to adjust to the Majors?  Is the bullpen an achilles heel?

 

So next year or 2018, the Twins will know the answers to most of those questions.  They'll know what they have with Sano and Buxton.  The Plouffe, Sano, Park, Mauer logjam should loosen up.  They'll know what they have in house in the bullpen.

 

Also, waiting a year or 2 to make the splash isn't going to hurt anything.  Are the Twins missing out on players in their prime who are going to start declining?  Catcher isn't going to decline.  Mauer is already declining and maybe would retire or become a bench player later on.  Dozier and Escobar could decline, but they aren't the type of talents where you say "win now" at all costs.  If Sano, Buxton, Kepler, Rosario, Berrios, Duffy, Park are the kind of talent that are going to win a World Series for the Twins, they're more likely to do it in 2017, 2018 or 2019 instead of 2016.  Its not like they are in a situation where if they don't win in 2016, they're going to lose their window to win a World Series.

 

So the Twins didn't sign Cueto for 2016.  If they really missed out on an Ace, they can go out and get one for 2017 or dip into their minor leagues and trade for one.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Well, if they had signed Cueto, that would just push Berrios even furthur down the list of starters.

Not necessarily, if they moved one of their current starters.

 

Also, the Twins do gel and make a run in 2016 or 2017, they can always trade for top end pitcher mid season.

Might not be so easy to rent an ace this summer.  Check out the scheduled FA SP for next winter:

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/03/2016-17-mlb-free-agents.html

[DaveW]

 

Well, if they had signed Cueto, that would just push Berrios even furthur down the list of starters.

 

 

Cueto wouldn't be taking innings from Berrios in that situation......any of the middle rotation guys would be taking innings from Berrios: Hughes, Santana, Nolasco, Milone etc

[clone52]

 

Not necessarily, if they moved one of their current starters.

 

Might not be so easy to rent an ace this summer.  Check out the scheduled FA SP for next winter:

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/03/2016-17-mlb-free-agents.html

 

 

If they could move one of their starters to find a spot, it would make more sense.  Milone is the obvious choice.  No one is going to take Santana or Hughes, probably.

 

I'm not saying rent an ace.  I'm saying a blockbuster deal with someone who has a few years on his contract left.  It would take some prospects, but they can part with some of their prospects for the right guy.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Good point.  However, I understand taking the risk and spending the money (or trading prospects) when its likely that you're very close to winning right now.  I just think there are too many question marks this year to take the risk of signing a guy like that right now.  Do the Twins have a catcher?  Is Mauer completely washed up?  Will Park be a bust.  How quickly will Sano transition from Adam Dunn to Miguel Cabrera as pitchers adjust to him and he adjusts to pitchers.  How long will it take for Buxton to adjust to the Majors?  Is the bullpen an achilles heel?

This cuts both ways, though.  What if Mauer has one or two more good season in him, but you're not willing to spend until he's on his very last legs in 2018?  What if Park starts out hot as a rookie but cools as the league adjusts to him?  How is Dozier going to age?  Plouffe?  Santana?  Etc.  Whatever speculative improvement you forecast for 2018 is almost certainly balanced by others getting worse before then, or by luck/injury/etc.

 

You can make a case against signing an ace like Cueto this winter, in fact I'd probably agree, I never really advocated for his signing.  But I absolutely hate the argument that "we're not that close to winning right now."  We won 83 games last year and have multiple top prospects hitting MLB, we're as close to winning as most MLB teams.  If you are waiting for a year when you are likely to win the World Series, you are going to be waiting forever because no teams are ever likely to do that, they get there by assembling a good foundation, taking chances to improve it, and luck, all of which applies to the 2016-2017 Twins just as much as any other present or future club.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I'm not saying rent an ace.  I'm saying a blockbuster deal with someone who has a few years on his contract left.  It would take some prospects, but they can part with some of their prospects for the right guy.

If you are thinking about a 1.5 year rental, like Price for the Tigers in 2014, the 2017-2018 FA SP class looks pretty thin too:

http://www.spotrac.com/mlb/free-agents/2018/

 

As for a longer-term acquisition midseason, I know it happened with Hamels, but that's pretty rare, no?  Very hard to count on that opportunity.  And if you expect Buxton, Sano, and Berrios to be part of our MLB club soon, I'm not sure that we'll even have the elite prospects that might be necessary to force a trade for, say, Jose Fernandez.

[Thrylos]

 

Good point.  However, I understand taking the risk and spending the money (or trading prospects) when its likely that you're very close to winning right now.

 

Here is one for you: 

 

On Friday July 17th the Twins were 50-40, 4 games behind the Royals in the division, with the second best record in the AL, and leading for a wild card spot. 

 

On the same day, the Mets were 47-43, 3 games behind the Nationals in their division, the 7th best record in the NL, and 4th in the wild card race, albeit a spot behind the second wild card.

 

a. which team was closer to "winning now"?
b. which team made the moves that turned it into a World Series team?
c. if they are not the same team, what does this say for the GM of team a?

 

 

 

[clone52]

 

This cuts both ways, though.  What if Mauer has one or two more good season in him, but you're not willing to spend until he's on his very last legs in 2018?  What if Park starts out hot as a rookie but cools as the league adjusts to him?  How is Dozier going to age?  Plouffe?  Santana?  Etc.  Whatever speculative improvement you forecast for 2018 is almost certainly balanced by others getting worse before then, or by luck/injury/etc.

 

You can make a case against signing an ace like Cueto this winter, in fact I'd probably agree, I never really advocated for his signing.  But I absolutely hate the argument that "we're not that close to winning right now."  We won 83 games last year and have multiple top prospects hitting MLB, we're as close to winning as most MLB teams.  If you are waiting for a year when you are likely to win the World Series, you are going to be waiting forever because no teams are ever likely to do that, they get there by assembling a good foundation, taking chances to improve it, and luck, all of which applies to the 2016-2017 Twins just as much as any other present or future club.

 

I'm sorry, but when you are using Dozier, Mauer (who people are killing), Plouffe (who everyone seems to want to trade), Park (who hasn't played an inning of MLB) and  Santana (Ervin? Danny???) as the reason they need to strike while the iron is hot, then I just don't think there is any argument to be made.

[clone52]

 

Here is one for you: 

 

On Friday July 17th the Twins were 50-40, 4 games behind the Royals in the division, with the second best record in the AL, and leading for a wild card spot. 

 

On the same day, the Mets were 47-43, 3 games behind the Nationals in their division, the 7th best record in the NL, and 4th in the wild card race, albeit a spot behind the second wild card.

 

a. which team was closer to "winning now"?
b. which team made the moves that turned it into a World Series team?
c. if they are not the same team, what does this say for the GM of team a?

 

 

I would have been up for a trade last year.  I was pushing for a Cole Hamels trade.  Similar yearly cost as Cueto but 2 years less risk.

 

I just really dont' like the 6 year deal for a pitcher for the Twins.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I'm sorry, but when you are using Dozier, Mauer (who people are killing), Plouffe (who everyone seems to want to trade), Park (who hasn't played an inning of MLB) and  Santana (Ervin? Danny???) as the reason they need to strike while the iron is hot, then I just don't think there is any argument to be made.

Ervin Santana, obviously.  C'mon.

 

I'm not using those guys to say the iron is hot.  I am saying there is a good chance they will be better in 2016-2017 than in 2018, which you don't seem to be factoring into your argument that it's all an upward trajectory toward success in 2018.  Things are rarely that linear.

[clone52]

 

Ervin Santana, obviously.  C'mon.

 

I'm not using those guys to say the iron is hot.  I am saying there is a good chance they will be better in 2016-2017 than in 2018, which you don't seem to be factoring into your argument that it's all an upward trajectory toward success in 2018.  Things are rarely that linear.

 

I assumed Ervin,

 

However, you are kind of out there on a limb saying there is a good chance they will be better in 2016-2017 than in 2018.  I don't think any baseball expert would project that.

 

Ervin Santana is 33 and no one expects a pitcher that age to actually improve.

You think there is a good chance of Mauer miraculously recovering in 2016-2017 then falling off a cliff in 2018?

Dozier and Plouffe are in their prime but aren't game changers.  

 

Its much easier to project them to be better in 2018 than 2016, but obviously not guaranteed.

[alarp33]

 

I assumed Ervin,

 

However, you are kind of out there on a limb saying there is a good chance they will be better in 2016-2017 than in 2018.  I don't think any baseball expert would project that.

 

Ervin Santana is 33 and no one expects a pitcher that age to actually improve.

You think there is a good chance of Mauer miraculously recovering in 2016-2017 then falling off a cliff in 2018?

Dozier and Plouffe are in their prime but aren't game changers.  

 

Its much easier to project them to be better in 2018 than 2016, but obviously not guaranteed.

 

You've gone around in so many circles I have completely lost track of your argument.  

 

The Pohlads should save their money for another 2 years.  At that time they should invest in the FA market**.. but only if all the prospects develop***.  If those prospects don't develop, the Pohlad's should continue to save their money, because we would be beginning year 8 of the rebuild. 

 

** Those FA signings should be for a max of 3 years, as Buxton and Sano will be starting to get expensive after that. 

*** No Top of the line Free Agent pitchers. There's a good chance that if you give an Ace 6 years, in year 5 and/or 6 the Pohlad's might be paying a pitcher who is no longer an Ace, $20 million

 

Is that the gist of it?

[clone52]

 

Right, because signing 30 year old #4/5 starters and hoping they become #3 starters is a strategy that has worked so well for them.  

 

Did I ever say that strategy has worked?  Does doubling down and spending twice the money work?

[clone52]

 

You've gone around in so many circles I have completely lost track of your argument.  

 

The Pohlads should save their money for another 2 years.  At that time they should invest in the FA market.. but only if all the prospects develop, and not on a top tier starter because those deals usually look bad the final couple seasons.  If those prospects don't develop, the Pohlad's should continue to save their money, because we would be beginning year 8 of the rebuild. 

 

Is that the gist of it?

 

No, thats not the gist of it.  First off, the Pohlad's don't save money so they can spend it later.  They spend some % of their revenue on their team to ensure they make a profit.  If they decide not to spend $10 million this year, that doesn't mean they'll spend an extra $10 million next year.  They aren't that cheap either.  They were #11 in payroll for 2015 as a percentage of the team's revenue.

 

Everyone on here has a reasonable argument.  Trying to sign an Ace this winter is a valid strategy.  I just feel that the Twins are more than just an Ace away in 2016 and the risks of a 6 or 7 year contract for an ace at this time don't outweigh the rewards.  If an Ace really does put the Twins in the World Series in 2016, then I'm wrong and my premise falls apart.

 

What Berrios delivers this summer, Duffey follows up well on last year and Gibson remains solid.  Then the Twins have a nice rotation in 2017-2018 of Berrios, Duffey, Gibson, Hughes and Santana with May potentially back in the rotation as well.  By not spending $125 million this year, maybe that allows them to go out and get a Matt Weiters, Francisco Cervelli or Jonathan LuCroy in 2017.  Maybe it allows them to get a star RF when they trade Plouffe and move them Sano to 3B.  Maybe it allows them to sign Stephen Strasburg as a free agent.

[Dantes929]

 

If only. It will not happen, instead we will sign Park (lol) just awful

 

Also should be noted that with the money they are spending on: Nolasco, Hughes and Milone in 2016, they easily could have gotten a Cueto type pitcher instead and had room for May or someone in the rotation.

Stop signing mediocrity! Sign impact players!

So you are saying stop signing mediocre in favor of impact players but other GM's should take our mediocre in exchange for their impact players?  Got it.  Great idea.

Someone explain to me again how the average starting pitcher has a 4.11 ERA,   why a #3 wouldn't be considered to be that average? and why Milone who has beat that average both in his career and last year, is considered a #5 rather than a good #3?

I like our rotation if it is Santana, Gibson, Duffey, Milone and Hughes, would like it a lot better if it had May instead of Hughes and eventually Berrios instead of whoever fails.    But yes, a good GM would trade them all for Greinke, Harvey, and Kershaw.  

[clone52]

 

So you are saying stop signing mediocre in favor of impact players but other GM's should take our mediocre in exchange for their impact players?  Got it.  Great idea.

Someone explain to me again how the average starting pitcher has a 4.11 ERA,   why a #3 wouldn't be considered to be that average? and why Milone who has beat that average both in his career and last year, is considered a #5 rather than a good #3?

I like our rotation if it is Santana, Gibson, Duffey, Milone and Hughes, would like it a lot better if it had May instead of Hughes and eventually Berrios instead of whoever fails.    But yes, a good GM would trade them all for Greinke, Harvey, and Kershaw.  

 

Because have unrealistic expectations for their favorite teams and typically are unable to see the bigger picture.

 

I remember last fall defending Gibson against people who were saying he was a #4 starter at best and after looking through the stats, he was clearly a #2 overall and if you only looked at the playoff teams, he would be the third best starter on I think 8 of the 10 playoff teams.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I assumed Ervin,

 

However, you are kind of out there on a limb saying there is a good chance they will be better in 2016-2017 than in 2018. I don't think any baseball expert would project that.

 

Ervin Santana is 33 and no one expects a pitcher that age to actually improve.

You think there is a good chance of Mauer miraculously recovering in 2016-2017 then falling off a cliff in 2018?

Dozier and Plouffe are in their prime but aren't game changers.

 

Its much easier to project them to be better in 2018 than 2016, but obviously not guaranteed.

I am not saying Ervin or Mauer are likely to improve, but they are both under contract and likely to be worse in 2018. If they have a last hurrah, it could come this year or next.

 

No expert is going to predict anything with confidence for overall team performance in 2018 at this point. Maybe with a club at the depths of rebuilding like the Phillies right now, but certainly not a team coming off 83 wins and projected near .500 again. At this point, they really truly are just as likely to have some good fortune and win 90 in either 2016 or 2017 as they are to neatly progress from 75 to 85 to 95 over the next three years.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I would have been up for a trade last year. I was pushing for a Cole Hamels trade. Similar yearly cost as Cueto but 2 years less risk.

 

I just really dont' like the 6 year deal for a pitcher for the Twins.

I think you dramatically overrating the difference between giving up talent for a 4 year deal and signing a guy to a 6 year deal.

[Brandon Warne]

 

Nobody is advocating 7 years... 

 

That's the problem. 

 

I'll put it this way, like it was in Caddyshack:

 

Tony D'Annunzio (in this case, Terry Ryan, or you): Well I ain't paying no 50 cents for no coke.
Danny Noonan (virtually every ace to hit the market ever): Oh then you ain't getting no coke. Know what I'm talking about?

[DaveW]

 

That's the problem. 

 

I'll put it this way, like it was in Caddyshack:

 

Tony D'Annunzio (in this case, Terry Ryan, or you): Well I ain't paying no 50 cents for no coke.
Danny Noonan (virtually every ace to hit the market ever): Oh then you ain't getting no coke. Know what I'm talking about?

Plenty of impact pitchers and hitters could be had for 5 or 6 years....

[Brandon Warne]

 

Plenty of impact pitchers and hitters could be had for 5 or 6 years....

 

Then it's an age thing. Or in the case of Cueto, because he picked the wrong time to have a really, really bad stretch.