Terry Ryan- I am not a fan

[clone52]

 

If this squad is going to contend they are going to need 3-4 guys from the farm to revitalize the bullpen.  Those guys are there but none of  them are starters.  May is.

 

I'm not sure they are going to contend this year, but if they do, i think they are better off with May in the bullpen.  Santana, Hughes, Gibson, Berrios, Milone and Duffey give the Twins a decent rotation.  I don't see that May is a signifigant upgrade to any of them.  He's not going to displace Santana, Hughes or Gibson for sure.  Berrios is going to get his shot as either to start the season or when they first injury happens.

 

That means May is only either going to beat out Milone or Duffey.  Who is he better than?  May has shown flashes of brilliance starting, but is exceptionally inconsistant.  In 2015, Milone was a better starter than May.  He did have a lower strikeout rate, but a better ERA.   Duffey has shown far more than May as a starter.

 

On the other side of it, May has shown he can be a GREAT reliever.  None of those 6 starters I mention seems like they would be a good reliever.

 

Now if you didn't have Santana and Hughes, then yes, I'd put May in the rotation.  However, given the roster as it is, its pretty obvious that May should be in the bullpen.

[Brandon Warne]

 

Free agency has pretty much come to a close, and another fail from Ryan.

We needed pitching badly in the starting rotation and the bullpen. So what does Terry do with our FA money instead of targeting guys like Gallardo, Kazmir, Clippard, Latos, Bastardo, etc.. ? He gets Park, lol a huge risk that will mostly likely blow up in our faces again..(Look at our last Asian signing) I think Ryan is petrified to go big for another pitcher because of one of the worst FA signing in twins history (Nolasco)

Hope he proves me wrong, but at this point I seriously doubt it!

 

 

GO TWINS

 

"Look at our last Asian signing...."

 

Try being more wrong and offensive.

[Brandon Warne]

Beyond that, could any two players be LESS comparable? A power-hitting corner guy from Korea and a contact-heavy middle infielder from Japan? 

[clone52]

 

Sano, Buxton, Roasrio, Berrios etc aren't due a big payday until 2021 or later. Signing Cueto to even a 5 year contract this offseason doesn't prevent them at from keeping those guys around, since Cueto's contract would be up before any of those guys actually hit free agent years.....

 

First off, Cueto signed a 6 year contract this year, so the Twins weren't going to sign him for 4 or 'even' five years.  He would be on the books through at least 2021.

 

Secondly, Sano and Buxton are arbitration eligible in 2019.  Rosario is eligible in 2018..  If they progress as we hope (Sano and Buxton all starts and Rosario a solid LF), those 3 combined through arbitration could easily be commanding $30 million in 2020 and $40 million in 2021.  If Park is a decent DH, you're looking at $35 million and $50 million in those 2 years.  Add on Cueto (or someone like that) and you'd have $55 million tied up in 5 players in 2020 and $70 million tied up in 5 players in 2021.

[Vanimal46]

First off, Cueto signed a 6 year contract this year, so the Twins weren't going to sign him for 4 or 'even' five years. He would be on the books through at least 2021.

 

Secondly, Sano and Buxton are arbitration eligible in 2019. Rosario is eligible in 2018.. If they progress as we hope (Sano and Buxton all starts and Rosario a solid LF), those 3 combined through arbitration could easily be commanding $30 million in 2020 and $40 million in 2021. If Park is a decent DH, you're looking at $35 million and $50 million in those 2 years. Add on Cueto (or someone like that) and you'd have $55 million tied up in 5 players in 2020 and $70 million tied up in 5 players in 2021.

And the Twins have nearly $65 million tied up in 5 players right now. That's what's to be expected from a mid-market team.... 5-6 players tying up a majority of your payroll and fill in the rest with guys on rookie contracts or smaller deals.

[alhweiner]

 

Reds are not too good with the trades.. lol their fan base despises their GM

And how does that differ from Twins?

[clone52]

 

And the Twins have nearly $65 million tied up in 5 players right now. That's what's to be expected from a mid-market team.... 5-6 players tying up a majority of your payroll and fill in the rest with guys on rookie contracts or smaller deals. 

 

And how many people are complaining about the contracts of Mauer, Nolasco, Hughes and Santana right now?  Thats why we're having this debate right now. 

 

I can't say you're wrong though.  Maybe spending $20-25/year over 6 or 7 years for a "ace" who will be washed up 3 or 4 years into the contract would be a good move for the Twins.

[TheLeviathan]

 

On the other side of it, May has shown he can be a GREAT reliever.  None of those 6 starters I mention seems like they would be a good reliever.

 

I really hate this argument.  Look, if you want to put May out there....fine, but c'mon.  He's pitched a grand total of 30 innings as a reliever and he was pretty good.  It's hardly some kind of sure thing and it may have caused an injury to boot.

 

Most starters convert better to the bullpen because their stuff isn't as exposed and they are matched up based on their strengths.  It's a good bet that any of the guys you listed would also look much more effective as a reliever.  How much better or worse than May isn't very clear, not to mention whatever degree better May would be is in a significantly fewer number of innings for the team.

 

I'd much rather roll out Hughes, Duffey, May, Santana, and Gibson in the rotation and let Milone go to the pen.  But we seem to have some kind of bizarre obsession with wedging at least one lefty into our rotation at all times.

[Mike Sixel]

 

And how many people are complaining about the contracts of Mauer, Nolasco, Hughes and Santana right now?  Thats why we're having this debate right now. 

 

I can't say you're wrong though.  Maybe spending $20-25/year over 6 or 7 years for a "ace" who will be washed up 3 or 4 years into the contract would be a good move for the Twins.

 

How is that different than the Mauer deal? Signing ANY player to a long term deal when they are 27 or older is going to probably result in dead money.......FA or your own players. Are you arguing to never sign such players?

[DaveW]

 

And how many people are complaining about the contracts of Mauer, Nolasco, Hughes and Santana right now?  Thats why we're having this debate right now. 

 

I can't say you're wrong though.  Maybe spending $20-25/year over 6 or 7 years for a "ace" who will be washed up 3 or 4 years into the contract would be a good move for the Twins.

 

First off, Cueto signed a 6 year contract this year, so the Twins weren't going to sign him for 4 or 'even' five years.  He would be on the books through at least 2021.

 

Secondly, Sano and Buxton are arbitration eligible in 2019.  Rosario is eligible in 2018..  If they progress as we hope (Sano and Buxton all starts and Rosario a solid LF), those 3 combined through arbitration could easily be commanding $30 million in 2020 and $40 million in 2021.  If Park is a decent DH, you're looking at $35 million and $50 million in those 2 years.  Add on Cueto (or someone like that) and you'd have $55 million tied up in 5 players in 2020 and $70 million tied up in 5 players in 2021.

 

 

$55-$70 million tied up in 5 players isn't a big thing at all, especially because in your example pretty much all those young players hit their ceiling. The Twins can certainly afford a $25 mil a year player, it just means they will have two less $12-$13 mil a year player (Hughes, Nolasco, Hunter, etc)

 

 

[DaveW]

 

 

  Maybe spending $20-25/year over 6 or 7 years for a "ace" who will be washed up 3 or 4 years into the contract would be a good move for the Twins.

Nobody is advocating 7 years... and it's a little presumptuous to assume that every "ACE" will be washed up in 3-4 years, Cueto would still be on the right side of 35, there is no reason why he couldn't still be effective in years 5 and 6. It's not like we are talking about giving a 34 year old a 6 year deal, we are talking about a 29 year old.

 

 

[DaveW]

 

 

 

 

I'd much rather roll out Hughes, Duffey, May, Santana, and Gibson in the rotation and let Milone go to the pen.  But we seem to have some kind of bizarre obsession with wedging at least one lefty into our rotation at all times.

I will take it one further, I would rather roll with that rotation and TRADE Milone. You can get some BP back in return (Milone for Storen seemed like a no brainer) or you can get a prospect back, and use the $5.5 million owed to Milone to go out and sign a RP like Bastardo etc

Too late for that last part now though :-/

[clone52]

 

I really hate this argument.  Look, if you want to put May out there....fine, but c'mon.  He's pitched a grand total of 30 innings as a reliever and he was pretty good.  It's hardly some kind of sure thing and it may have caused an injury to boot.

 

Most starters convert better to the bullpen because their stuff isn't as exposed and they are matched up based on their strengths.  It's a good bet that any of the guys you listed would also look much more effective as a reliever.  How much better or worse than May isn't very clear, not to mention whatever degree better May would be is in a significantly fewer number of innings for the team.

 

I'd much rather roll out Hughes, Duffey, May, Santana, and Gibson in the rotation and let Milone go to the pen.  But we seem to have some kind of bizarre obsession with wedging at least one lefty into our rotation at all times.

 

At least quote my entire post.  The argument that May is a Great reliever is only half the argument.  I also pointed out that the evidence shows Milone is at least as good a starter as May is and maybe better.  Why would you essentially swap equal starters in the rotation AND make your bullpen worse in the process?

 

The only argument for May in the rotation is the hope that he could turn out to be better than he has shown so far as a starter.

[DaveW]

 

 

And the Twins have nearly $65 million tied up in 5 players right now. That's what's to be expected from a mid-market team.... 5-6 players tying up a majority of your payroll and fill in the rest with guys on rookie contracts or smaller deals. 

It should also be noted that it's highly, highly, highly unlikely that all of Buxton, Sano, Berrios, Duffey, May, Park, Kepler are all going to become great or even very good players. Worrying too much about our early arbitration figures 4-5 years down the road just seems pointless to me. If Buxton, Sano, Berrios etc were 3 years away from free agency as of today, I would understand the qualm with signing a big contract, but in this scenario? No way.

[clone52]

 

Nobody is advocating 7 years... and it's a little presumptuous to assume that every "ACE" will be washed up in 3-4 years, Cueto would still be on the right side of 35, there is no reason why he couldn't still be effective in years 5 and 6. It's not like we are talking about giving a 34 year old a 6 year deal, we are talking about a 29 year old.

 

Well, it would be at least 6 years.  Not to mention that Cueto looked very mediocre in the American League last season.  We might have been paying double the yearly cost and 2 extra years for the production of Ervin Santana.

[TheLeviathan]

 

At least quote my entire post.  The argument that May is a Great reliever is only half the argument.  I also pointed out that the evidence shows Milone is at least as good a starter as May is and maybe better.  Why would you essentially swap equal starters in the rotation AND make your bullpen worse in the process?

 

The only argument for May in the rotation is the hope that he could turn out to be better than he has shown so far as a starter.

 

That May will improve is a reasonable assumption considering he has 25 starts under his belt and was showing improvement the last few.  

 

The way people bash May's growth as a young player baffles me.  Do you treat Buxton's first couple hundred at-bats the same way?  By that measure maybe we should put Mastro in CF too.  

 

I'm swapping a younger player with more upside for a guy whose most ringing endorsement for a rotation spot seems to be the arm he throws with.

[clone52]

 

How is that different than the Mauer deal? Signing ANY player to a long term deal when they are 27 or older is going to probably result in dead money.......FA or your own players. Are you arguing to never sign such players?

 

No, I'm arguing that signing a guy like Cueto to that kind of deal isn't worth the risk when you have some high end prospects coming up in the system.  Not to mention that the first couple of years of that contract would include the time when the young Twins are taking their lumps.  Does a guy like Cueto put the Twins over the top when guys like Rosario, Buxton, Sano, Berrios, May, Park, etc are going through their Freshman and Sophmore slumps?

 

Now in 2018 if the young guys have developed and the twins need an Ace to pull it altogether, I'd be in favor of big money deal to bring in an Ace.  Like what the Royals did last year.  Their young players had several years in the majors to develop and the Royals went all in.

[laloesch]

 

They're not bad, either.

Except Nolasco but he's one guy out of EIGHT (Hughes, Gibson, Milone, Nolasco, May, Santana, Duffey, Berrios).

No. More. Starters.

 

And that's not including Rogers and Meyer.

[clone52]

 

That May will improve is a reasonable assumption considering he has 25 starts under his belt and was showing improvement the last few.  

 

The way people bash May's growth as a young player baffles me.  Do you treat Buxton's first couple hundred at-bats the same way?  By that measure maybe we should put Mastro in CF too.  

 

I'm swapping a younger player with more upside for a guy whose most ringing endorsement for a rotation spot seems to be the arm he throws with.

 

 

I'm not bashing May.  How on earth did you come to that conclusion.  I'm just giving my opinion of what would be the best for 2016 Minnesota Twins.  I'm a huge fan of May and think he will develop into a good and potentially really good starter.  I also think he is a fantastic reliever.  The fact that he adds 5mph to his fastball in the bullpen might mean he is the future closer of the Twins.

 

Just looking at 2016, the best move for the Twins is May in the bullpen.  Their bullpen is a weakness and their rotation, while not a strength, isn't a weakness.  There is just no logical reason to weaken the bullpen without upgrading the rotation.

 

I have no problem moving him back to the rotation in 2017 if they need to do that.  Another year in the bullpen isn't going to be detrimental to the future of May as a start if thats the road they go down.

[clone52]

 

I will take it one further, I would rather roll with that rotation and TRADE Milone. You can get some BP back in return (Milone for Storen seemed like a no brainer) or you can get a prospect back, and use the $5.5 million owed to Milone to go out and sign a RP like Bastardo etc

Too late for that last part now though :-/

 

I wouldn't have a problem with using Milone in a trade.  Probably have to pair him with a decent prospect to get anything back in return, though.

[TheLeviathan]

Keeping May in the pen delays his progression as a starter and learning how to pitch deeper into games. The "need" for him in the bullpen was entirely correctable this offseason.

[Vanimal46]

 

No, I'm arguing that signing a guy like Cueto to that kind of deal isn't worth the risk when you have some high end prospects coming up in the system.  Not to mention that the first couple of years of that contract would include the time when the young Twins are taking their lumps.  Does a guy like Cueto put the Twins over the top when guys like Rosario, Buxton, Sano, Berrios, May, Park, etc are going through their Freshman and Sophmore slumps?

 

Now in 2018 if the young guys have developed and the twins need an Ace to pull it altogether, I'd be in favor of big money deal to bring in an Ace.  Like what the Royals did last year.  Their young players had several years in the majors to develop and the Royals went all in.

I'm not understanding that logic at all. I think a guy like Cueto is a perfect signing to pair with the top prospects coming up in the system. All of them are at the cheapest rate they'll ever be in the MLB career, and by the time the prospects are due for their big pay day, Cueto's about to come off the books. I would think that someone like a Cueto takes pressure off guys like May, Berrios, Meyer, etc. because they don't have to come in and be a savior. Think of the lofty expectations we already have for Berrios to come in and be an ace.... because he's the team's only chance at having an ace. 

So if the prospects don't develop as planned unlike what you proposed for 2018, what then? Do the Twins always stay on the sidelines until a guardian angel speaks to TR that this is the right time to make a move?

[clone52]

 

That May will improve is a reasonable assumption considering he has 25 starts under his belt and was showing improvement the last few.  

 

The way people bash May's growth as a young player baffles me.  Do you treat Buxton's first couple hundred at-bats the same way?  By that measure maybe we should put Mastro in CF too.  

 

I'm swapping a younger player with more upside for a guy whose most ringing endorsement for a rotation spot seems to be the arm he throws with.

 

Thats not really fair to Milone.  If he had pitched enough to qualify, he would have had a Top 25 ERA in the American League.  Its not like he's garbage out there.

 

I do agree with you that May has more potential than Milone.

[TheLeviathan]

Milne was a good pitcher for the most part, but his spot is as (or more) cemented than anyone but Santana by virtue of being a lefty.

 

This team needs to be investing in upside.

[clone52]

 

I'm not understanding that logic at all. I think a guy like Cueto is a perfect signing to pair with the top prospects coming up in the system. All of them are at the cheapest rate they'll ever be in the MLB career, and by the time the prospects are due for their big pay day, Cueto's about to come off the books. I would think that someone like a Cueto takes pressure off guys like May, Berrios, Meyer, etc. because they don't have to come in and be a savior. Think of the lofty expectations we already have for Berrios to come in and be an ace.... because he's the team's only chance at having an ace. 

So if the prospects don't develop as planned unlike what you proposed for 2018, what then? Do the Twins always stay on the sidelines until a guardian angel speaks to TR that this is the right time to make a move?

 

So, it usually takes a few years for top prospects to gel.  Look at the Royals last year.  Hosmer, Perez, Moustakas was in year 5.  Cain in year 6.  Gordon in year 9.

 

Even look at Twins in the past.  Hunter, Miekiewicz, Jones, Koskie had to take their lumps before they really became contenders.

 

How many World Series teams have their most of their best hitters in their first 2 or 3 years of major league experience?  I doubt it happens often.  

 

I still think the Twins are 2 or 3 years away from being a serious contender and it doesn't make sense to make risky, expensive moves right now.

 

If the young guys don't develop like we expect them to, then in 2018, we won't have 4 years and $85 million on the books for a pitcher on a rebuilding team.

[alarp33]

 

So, it usually takes a few years for top prospects to gel.  Look at the Royals last year.  Hosmer, Perez, Moustakas was in year 5.  Cain in year 6.  Gordon in year 9.

 

Even look at Twins in the past.  Hunter, Miekiewicz, Jones, Koskie had to take their lumps before they really became contenders.

 

How many World Series teams have their most of their best hitters in their first 2 or 3 years of major league experience?  I doubt it happens often.  

 

I still think the Twins are 2 or 3 years away from being a serious contender and it doesn't make sense to make risky, expensive moves right now.

 

If the young guys don't develop like we expect them to, then in 2018, we won't have 4 years and $85 million on the books for a pitcher on a rebuilding team.

 

Take a look at the Cubs roster and get back to me.  Loaded with young talent, supplemented the major holes w/ FA signings.  

[clone52]

 

Take a look at the Cubs roster and get back to me.  Loaded with young talent, supplemented the major holes w/ FA signings.  

 

Thats a good example, although they did get swept in the NLCS.

 

Also, the Cubs have the financial resources to take more risks than the Twins are willing to take.  Their projected payroll this year is $160 million.  The Twins just aren't willing to spend that kind of money no matter how much the fans want them to.

[DaveW]

 

 Not to mention that Cueto looked very mediocre in the American League last season.  We might have been paying double the yearly cost and 2 extra years for the production of Ervin Santana.

Short sample size. The reality is Cueto had a really terrible 5 game stretch for the Royals (28 ER in 24 IP) In the 4 starts prior he had a 1.80 ERA, and the 4 starts after he had a 3.24 ERA. Factor in what he has done in the rest of his entire career and it's pretty safe to say that Cueto would be just fine anywhere he pitched.

 

From 2011-2014 Cueto had the 2nd lowest overall ERA in baseball, even factor in his 2015 and he had the third lowest overall from 2011-2015. How is that Ervin Santana??? Oh and he pitched in a hitters park all of those years to boot.

[clone52]

 

Short sample size. The reality is Cueto had a really terrible 5 game stretch for the Royals (28 ER in 24 IP) In the 4 starts prior he had a 1.80 ERA, and the 4 starts after he had a 3.24 ERA. Factor in what he has done in the rest of his entire career and it's pretty safe to say that Cueto would be just fine anywhere he pitched.

 

From 2011-2014 Cueto had the 2nd lowest overall ERA in baseball, even factor in his 2015 and he had the third lowest overall from 2011-2015. How is that Ervin Santana??? Oh and he pitched in a hitters park all of those years to boot.

 

 

Good points.

[alarp33]

 

Thats a good example, although they did get swept in the NLCS.

 

Also, the Cubs have the financial resources to take more risks than the Twins are willing to take.  Their projected payroll this year is $160 million.  The Twins just aren't willing to spend that kind of money no matter how much the fans want them to.

 

Moving the goalposts, once again. 

 

You said the Twins were 2-3 years away from being a serious contender so they should do nothing.  The Cubs have slightly more young talent than the Twins, but they don't seem to have an issue "going for it" when their guys are 2nd year players? 

 

Why is Koskie, Hunter, Jones etc. example relevant, but the Cubs are being dismissed because they lost in the NLCS when Bryant, Schwarber, Russell were rookies?