Terry Ryan- I am not a fan

[spinowner]

 

Here is one for you: 

 

On Friday July 17th the Twins were 50-40, 4 games behind the Royals in the division, with the second best record in the AL, and leading for a wild card spot. 

 

On the same day, the Mets were 47-43, 3 games behind the Nationals in their division, the 7th best record in the NL, and 4th in the wild card race, albeit a spot behind the second wild card.

 

a. which team was closer to "winning now"?
b. which team made the moves that turned it into a World Series team?
c. if they are not the same team, what does this say for the GM of team a?

Answer to a. The Mets, by far, because they had the good fortune to be in the NL East.

[Dr. Evil]

I'm not a huge fan of Ryan either foghorn and clone. Our bullpen has been not so good for 4 years or so. We come in to this season with what additions? To me that's just more of the same unless, cross your fingers, some youngsters emerge this year.

 

So in a way all you're sayin is that(let's substitute me for Terry Ryan to be considerate of him)if I fart in public, which happens often by the way, and the guy next to me turns to me and asks if I just farted, just have the guts to admit it.

 

Am I right?

[Brandon Warne]

 

I'm not a huge fan of Ryan either foghorn and clone. Our bullpen has been not so good for 4 years or so. We come in to this season with what additions? To me that's just more of the same unless, cross your fingers, some youngsters emerge this year.

So in a way all you're sayin is that(let's substitute me for Terry Ryan to be considerate of him)if I fart in public, which happens often by the way, and the guy next to me turns to me and asks if I just farted, just have the guts to admit it.

Am I right?

 

May-Jepsen-Perkins is the best back-end they've had in quite a while.

 

May will be a better reliever than anyone who was available in FA

[Brandon Warne]

Though I will say this: They missed on Shawn Kelley. He'd have been a good, reasonable addition.

[howieramone2]

 

And how does that differ from Twins?

The Twins make good trades and the local paying fans think the world of TR.

[DaveW]

 

Then it's an age thing. Or in the case of Cueto, because he picked the wrong time to have a really, really bad stretch. 

He had 5 bad games in an other wise very good year...

[DaveW]

 

The Twins make good trades

Source?

[Brandon Warne]

 

He had 5 bad games in an other wise very good year...

 

Whether it was five isolated games or not, his numbers with the Royals weren't good. In a "what have you done for me" lately situation, it's easy to see why he didn't get as many years as he would have liked.

 

Futhermore, he may have turned down more years. We really don't know. He signed pretty early.

[USAFChief]

Answer to a. The Mets, by far, because they had the good fortune to be in the NL East.

It took 84 wins to win the NLE, same as the ALC.

[Dr. Evil]

May-Jepsen-Perkins is the best back-end they've had in quite a while.

 

May will be a better reliever than anyone who was available in FA

I like those guys too. But, between trades and free agents, I just wanted us to get something more. There are teams that took steps to improve their pens.

[spinowner]

 

It took 84 wins to win the NLE, same as the ALC.

But playing a far easier schedule.

[Brock Beauchamp]

But playing a far easier schedule.

Yeah, it's not comparable. The Braves had a worse record than every AL team and didn't even finish last in the NLE.

 

Meanwhile, the NLC had three 97+ win teams. The NL is extremely unbalanced right now.

[USAFChief]

But playing a far easier schedule.

No team in MLB plays a "far easier" schedule. There are no terrible teams, and every team plays a majority of their games outside their own division.

[Brock Beauchamp]

No team in MLB plays a "far easier" schedule. There are no terrible teams, and every team plays a majority of their games outside their own division.

Its hard to say with a straight face that the NL is on equal footing with the AL right now. The NL has a handful of *really* tough teams and a slew of terrible ball clubs. Meanwhile, 12-14 of AL teams can beat anyone on any given night.

 

There's a reason the AL was a whopping 34 games over .500 in interleague play last season.

[Brandon Warne]

 

I like those guys too. But, between trades and free agents, I just wanted us to get something more. There are teams that took steps to improve their pens.

 

Sure, but obvious bullpen upgrades require multi-year deals. And the guys that the Twins might have had interest in -- Sipp, Bastardo -- don't strike me as guaranteed, obvious upgrades over the guys they'd have taken the spots of....namely Alex Meyer, Ryan Pressly and the like. 

[bird]

 

2-3 more years away....the goal posts are now out to 2019......

 

 

 

Okay, Mike, but count these people one finger at a time, and you'll have lots of digits left over....

[spinowner]

 

No team in MLB plays a "far easier" schedule. There are no terrible teams, and every team plays a majority of their games outside their own division.

The Mets played 77 games against teams who finished with 71 or fewer wins. The Twins played 16 games against teams who finished with 71 or fewer wins. You can certainly define "far easier" however you'd like, but by my definition the Mets' schedule was far easier.

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

Sure, but obvious bullpen upgrades require multi-year deals. And the guys that the Twins might have had interest in -- Sipp, Bastardo -- don't strike me as guaranteed, obvious upgrades over the guys they'd have taken the spots of....namely Alex Meyer, Ryan Pressly and the like.

Bastardo throws with his left hand and has a career LHB OPS against of .595.

 

I understand not picking up a righty - I don't necessarily agree but I get it - but failing to pick up a decent lefty is egregious in my eyes.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Sure, but obvious bullpen upgrades require multi-year deals. And the guys that the Twins might have had interest in -- Sipp, Bastardo -- don't strike me as guaranteed, obvious upgrades over the guys they'd have taken the spots of....namely Alex Meyer, Ryan Pressly and the like.

Wouldn't they have taken the spot tentatively reserved for Abad?

[DaveW]

Why are people comparing the Mets to the Twins again? The Mets have a rotation that will feature literally 5 ace or number 2 types upside guys.

 

I don't care how "easy" the Mets schedule was last year, they were clearly a much better team top to bottom then the Twins in 2015.

DeGrom 2.54 ERA 

Harvey 2.71 ERA

Syndergard 3.24 ERA

Matz 2.27 ERA

 

Oh and heading into 2016 they are  adding a  guy in Wheeler who has shown some solid numbers as a 23-24 year old.

 

The Mets rotation is leaps and bounds better than Minnesotas for the next couple years as well. Imagine if Duffey pitches like he did for the Twins for the next couple years, now imagine Berrios lives up to his full potential and we can clone him 4 times over, that would be more or less equal.

 

Also the Mets are returning the following guys:

D'Arnaud C 128 OPS+ last season.

Duda 132 OPS+ last season

Granderson 129 OPS+ last season

Cespedes 157 OPS+ last season

Wright 128 OPS+  last seaon

Conforto 132 OPS+ last season

 

 

 

For the Twins:

Sano had a 144 OPS+ and nobody else had over a 104 OPS+

 

 

I think the Twins compete next year, but the Mets are a significantly better team (they should have won 94+  games, but basically gave a bunch of games a way once they had the division wrapped up) Anyone who thinks the Mets "were/are" only better because of their schedule/division has the most Blue and Red tinted glasses one could find anywhere.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Brandon Warne]

 

Bastardo throws with his left hand and has a career LHB OPS against of .595.

I understand not picking up a righty - I don't necessarily agree but I get it - but failing to pick up a decent lefty is egregious in my eyes.

 

A pair of Phillies eyes I trust said for as good as Bastardo's numbers are, he fails to provide any sort of confidence in late innings. 

 

For the cost involved, I'd probably just go with Taylor Rogers, who held LHH to a .402 OPS last year in the minors. Tommy Milone (.603 OPS v. LHH in 2015) could make a fine bullpen lefty, too. I have to believe he'll be usurped by Jose Berrios at some point this season.

[Brandon Warne]

 

Wouldn't they have taken the spot tentatively reserved for Abad?

 

Well sure. That's possible. And there's a non-zero chance Abad is better than Bastardo at a way cheaper price. Opponents -- not just LHH -- had a .499 OPS against Abad in 2014. That includes RHH (.475) and LHH (.527).

 

Shrewd signing, IMO

[DaveW]

 

Well sure. That's possible. And there's a non-zero chance Abad is better than Bastardo at a way cheaper price. Opponents -- not just LHH -- had a .499 OPS against Abad in 2014. That includes RHH (.475) and LHH (.527).

 

Shrewd signing, IMO

But how did they hit off of him in 2012, 2013 and 2015.... yeah, it's a non zero chance, but that percentage he outperforms Bastardo is somewhere between 0% and 20% (and that is being very generous

[DaveW]

 

 

A pair of Phillies eyes I trust said for as good as Bastardo's numbers are, he fails to provide any sort of confidence in late innings. 

Nobody fully "trusts" their late inning relief guys, that's part of being a baseball fan. Aggie was an all time great for the Twins franchise, but good lord if he didn't induce a lot of stress along the was.

 

I will take the numbers.

[Champuckett]

Yeah, this off-seasons trades/transactions leaves me with uttering nothing more than a simple "huh?".

 

He didn't do severe damage to the club like bringing in a bunch of speedy, .175 light hitting outfielders that are prototypical Gardy Guys or trading away some sorely needed power bats for 88mph max fastball pitch to contact bullpen help.  So you have to give him that.

 

Instead we got pretty much nothing.  

 

Plouffe was likely at his maximum value this offseason.  As sad as it would be to see him go since he had been one of our biggest offense contributors the last few years, Sano coming in at 3B made sense to part with Plouffe while he still had trade value.  Didn't happen.

 

Badly needed bullpen arms and some legitimate aces in the starting rotation.  Easier said than done, I guess, with the starting pitching market being as expensive as it is, but doing nothing will never help you achieve your goals.  Opted for "hoping for the best" strategy with the same guys that gave us a mediocre run in the first half and then a pitiful second half.

 

Oh well, same crap, different year.  Guess that's why I love these guys and will always be a fan, cause the going is never easy for us.  Going to be tuning in having a blast watching them and appropriately feeling like crap halfway through the season when I'm asking myself, "it sure seems like they could have done more in the offseason, what happened?!"

[beckmt]

Most third baseman this year are bringing nothing.  The Reds were widely panned for the Todd Frazier deal and Plouffe though good is not considered in the same league as Frazier. 

Bullpen, don't know,  Twins have a core of hard throwing pitchers, most in Chattanooga to start the year.  Some of them could easily be here by midsummer.  Let it play out, we do not know what will happen or how many of the very good Twins farmhands will make the club.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Well sure. That's possible. And there's a non-zero chance Abad is better than Bastardo at a way cheaper price. Opponents -- not just LHH -- had a .499 OPS against Abad in 2014. That includes RHH (.475) and LHH (.527).

 

Shrewd signing, IMO

And that's a fair point. I didn't mind the Abad signing.

 

It's also possible he loses a couple of games before they figure out he's not very good. It's a risk.

[clone52]

 

May-Jepsen-Perkins is the best back-end they've had in quite a while.

 

May will be a better reliever than anyone who was available in FA

 

I agree with this, although I am concerned about Perkins, just based on his injury issues the last 2 years.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Okay, Mike, but count these people one finger at a time, and you'll have lots of digits left over....

 

Meaning, I assume, that you think it is this year or next year that they should be competitive, or something has gone wrong?

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Well sure. That's possible. And there's a non-zero chance Abad is better than Bastardo at a way cheaper price. Opponents -- not just LHH -- had a .499 OPS against Abad in 2014. That includes RHH (.475) and LHH (.527).

 

Shrewd signing, IMO

Non-zero chance is better than zero, but it's also not as good as a likely chance.  And the "cheaper price" is pretty much irrelevant.  The Twins don't need value in that spot in the pen to compete, they need performance.  At Abad's salary, 0.5 WAR will be great "value" but I'd rather have Lowe or Benoit and a better chance at 1.5 WAR even if it's worse $/WAR.  (I wasn't as enthused about Bastardo, I could be convinced to pass on him with an aggressive plan for Rogers, but I would have taken him over Abad for sure.)