Suzuki vs. Murphy

[Riverbrian]

According to Molitor, he's not viewing it as an open competition at this point in time:https://twitter.com/RhettBollinger/status/700817447142694913

Molitor probably is not very familiar with Murphy.

 

I'm hoping this statement changes as becomes acclimated with Murphy.

[Brock Beauchamp]

What if Murphy is playing only a couple games a week and not hitting, or hitting about as well as Suzuki? Will we hear more about how hard it is to hit in the backup catcher role, but no change in roles?

If Murphy isn't playing often enough to properly gauge his abilities, then I'll probably lose my mind.

[DocBauer]

Solid and timely post. But it really breaks down to a pair of joined but separate subject matter: A} the trade itself, and B} Murphy vs Suzuki.

 

A} Ranking trades is fun, though in truth, it takes time to sort out a proper grading curve. Secondly, in theory, both teams improve. But do you really care if the other team does? Unless the trade turns out to be vastly disproportionate in one team's direction, my only concern is, did MY TEAM improve in an area. And BTW, the production of a CF, unless crazy good, vs the offense-defense-game calling-leadership of a catcher is like comparing a 7' big man in basketball vs a top point guard. How do you possibly correlate similarities and differences? Finally, if either or both players improve, it's fun to conjecture, but there is no concrete proof that said improvement would have taken place, or in the same way, had either player stayed put.

 

B} Forgetting Suzuki's negatives, he IS a veteran and a known qualtity/quantity. He is a respected and experienced player by his teammates and reportedly a leader of the team and staff. He's also quite a gamer. IMHO, he deserves our respect as well. So of course he will be opening ST as the primary catcher.

 

But the Twins made this trade for a reason. Thereven are actually some interesting catching prospects in the minors, but, they are not yet fully proven, much less ready. No AJ or Mauer ready to graduate tomorrow. And if the team was so happy and content with Suzuki, now and the future, they would have contenTed themselves with the acquisition of a solid backup backstop, not a young, potential starter.

 

There is over a month of ST to determine an order here. And it may still favor Zuke initially. But it will evolve in to Murphy's job sooner or later. Suzuki has respect and experience, but from all reported stats and reports, Murphy CAN and SHOULD throw and hit better than Zuke. It's his job to eventually win or lose. Despite the presence of Turner, Garver, Centeno and Hicks????, don't be surprised if Zuke gets offered a 1 year to return as the veteran backup. Which he will probably decline due to a larger offer from another team more "desperate".

[brvama]

 

I don't agree.  If anything Ryan would rather give the nod to Suzuki because he overzealously extended him a couple of years ago, in season.  With Murphy, Ryan can take the "he's a prospect angle"

First, Ryan doesn't make out the lineups, he supplies the players.  It will be Molitor in this regard.  Second, I have to give Ryan the benefit of the doubt that he felt this trade improves the catcher position.  Maybe not initially.  We'll see,

Since Murphy is new to the organization, it only makes sense that they go with Suzuki to start the season.  It will be upon Murphys shoulder to push the issue.  I believe Molitor is serious in improving the running game defensively and will utilize Murphy IF he shows he's capable of improving Suzuki performance.  Once acclimated to the pitchers I think he'll start more often and eventually move into the starter role as the season unwinds.

[bird]

Molitor will make the decision about who starts, not Ryan.

 

Molitor isn't going to concede the starting catching position to Murphy in February. He will award it to him April. Hence, the statement to Bollinger that he shared on Twitter. It means nothing.

 

I'm assuming the Twins believe Murphy is the better catcher right now and just needs the opportunity to start. I don't believe they went out into the marketplace to acquire a backup catcher to friggin' Suzuki. Time will tell if they're right. But I'm right immediately as always.

 

Allen and Molitor won't worry about Murphy adjusting to and getting to know the pitchers. He's got time to do that well enough during the spring.

 

I believe one of the FPS's (Foolproof Prediction Systems), ZIPS or UNZIPS or something maybe, said that Murphy will be more productive in 2016 than Hicks, so you can take that to your bookie.

[twinsnorth49]

 

First, Ryan doesn't make out the lineups, he supplies the players.  It will be Molitor in this regard.  Second, I have to give Ryan the benefit of the doubt that he felt this trade improves the catcher position.  Maybe not initially.  We'll see,

Since Murphy is new to the organization, it only makes sense that they go with Suzuki to start the season.  It will be upon Murphys shoulder to push the issue.  I believe Molitor is serious in improving the running game defensively and will utilize Murphy IF he shows he's capable of improving Suzuki performance.  Once acclimated to the pitchers I think he'll start more often and eventually move into the starter role as the season unwinds.

This seems to be the most sensible scenario imo, very likely this is how it plays out and probably should.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

The Twins dealt Hicks, from a position of surplus, for a player Murphy who plays a position they are weak in. That's good enough for me at this point. I would have rather dealt Plouffe and tried a RF platoon with Hicks and Arcia but what's done is done. And yes what Brock and others said, I hope Murphy gets a ton of playing time pretty much immediately. Spring training might tell us which pitchers he pairs best with.

[Squirrel]

 

I think that's an odd statement to make in February but it doesn't rile me up, either. I'm more interested in seeing what happens as the season progresses. If Murphy is hitting and doesn't have at least 50% of the catching duties by June...

It reminds me of the statement he made regarding DSantana last year ... hmm ... yeah ... we'll see ...

[Otto von Ballpark]

Molitor isn't going to concede the starting catching position to Murphy in February. He will award it to him April. Hence, the statement to Bollinger that he shared on Twitter. It means nothing.

 

I'm assuming the Twins believe Murphy is the better catcher right now and just needs the opportunity to start.

I don't expect him to name Murphy the starter in February either, but if there was any chance of him being named the starter in April, I imagine he'd be talking about competition right now.

 

And I don't know why you'd assume they think Murphy is better than Suzuki, at this point. Again, wouldn't they say it was an open competition then? The only thing I'd assume at this point is they think Murphy is better than Herrmann (and Pinto, and Fryer), probably significantly so.

[HitInAPinch]

I think people are trying to read way to much into Molitor's statement.  I think he has 2 reasons for saying what he said:  

1. Suzuki has worked with these pitchers for a couple years now.  He knows how they like to pitch and what pitch they like to use in certain situations.
2. He wanted to get all the BS out of the way.

[Riverbrian]

I also believe that the scarcity of quality MLB talent at the C position has to be factored in.

 

It probably inflates Murphys value... Heck... It probably inflates Suzukis value.

 

My fingers are crossed hoping that Murphy is indeed an upgrade for this year.

[drjim]

 

We might hear about how much harder it is to hit in Target as opposed to Yankee Stadium as we see that .350ish BABIP come back down to league averagish :-)

 

.417 BABIP at Yankee Stadium, .288 Away.

 

Do you actually think that babip split is anything other than sss noise?

 

I couldn't find 2015 info, but from 2012-2014 Target Field had a significantly higher babip for rh hitters.

[drjim]

 

I also believe that the scarcity of quality MLB talent at the C position has to be factored in.

It probably inflates Murphys value... Heck... It probably inflates Suzukis value.

My fingers are crossed hoping that Murphy is indeed an upgrade for this year.

 

Of course the scarcity inflates the value of Murphy, that was kind of the point of the trade.

 

And the Twins didn't get worse in CF, they cleared space for a far superior player.

[jimmer]

 

Do you actually think that babip split is anything other than sss noise?

 

I couldn't find 2015 info, but from 2012-2014 Target Field had a significantly higher babip for rh hitters.

I believe his numbers were greatly helped by a unsustainable BABIP.  Like Santana's in 2014.  And that Yankee stadium is more of a hitter's park than TF.  So we will see. Some seem to have no problem talking about his numbers last year as proof he'll be good.  Isn't that also SSS? Or is it only okay to use SSS when it makes a player look good?

[Riverbrian]

Of course the scarcity inflates the value of Murphy, that was kind of the point of the trade.

 

And the Twins didn't get worse in CF, they cleared space for a far superior player.

Yeah I get that... It's why I typed it however...

 

The Twins didn't need to clear space for a far superior player... No team needs to do that. It would be really simple to just play the far superior player.

 

What they did was clear the safety net away from what we all assume is a far superior player. I sure hope he stays healthy and I sure hope he is ready.

 

If Murphy is indeed an upgrade... in 2016. I'll be nice and happy. If Suzuki gets the most playing time. I won't understand it.

[USAFChief]

Murphy doesn't have enough MLB PAs to say much of anything with any degree of certainty.

 

He does have a minor league history, though, and it indicates he's not likely to be much of an upgrade offensively over Suzuki, if at all.

[Jerr]

 

 

I think people are trying to read way to much into Molitor's statement.  I think he has 2 reasons for saying what he said:  

1. Suzuki has worked with these pitchers for a couple years now.  He knows how they like to pitch and what pitch they like to use in certain situations.
2. He wanted to get all the BS out of the way.

 

And Molitor hasn't even dealt with Murphy, on top of what you said.

[drjim]

 

I believe his numbers were greatly helped by a unsustainable BABIP.  Like Santana's in 2014.  And that Yankee stadium is more of a hitter's park than TF.  So we will see. Some seem to have no problem talking about his numbers last year as proof he'll be good.  Isn't that also SSS? Or is it only okay to use SSS when it makes a player look good?

 

I agree that Murphy will regress on his babip, but while Yankee Stadium is more of a hitters park, that manifests more in home runs, especially to right field, and not actually in babip.

 

I don't put a ton of weight to any sweeping conclusions based on sss, good or bad.

[drjim]

 

Yeah I get that... It's why I typed it however...

The Twins didn't need to clear space for a far superior player... No team needs to do that. It would be really simple to just play the far superior player.

What they did was clear the safety net away from what we all assume is a far superior player. I sure hope he stays healthy and I sure hope he is ready.

If Murphy is indeed an upgrade... in 2016. I'll be nice and happy. If Suzuki gets the most playing time. I won't understand it.

 

I never would say the Twins "needed" to do anything, but I do think it is a good use of resources to trade from a surplus to fill an area of need, especially when the replacement is as good as Buxton.

[bird]

 

I don't expect him to name Murphy the starter in February either, but if there was any chance of him being named the starter in April, I imagine he'd be talking about competition right now.

And I don't know why you'd assume they think Murphy is better than Suzuki, at this point. Again, wouldn't they say it was an open competition then? The only thing I'd assume at this point is they think Murphy is better than Herrmann (and Pinto, and Fryer), probably significantly so.

 

 

First, I can imagine that Molitor is paying homage to the fact that Suzuki has been a bit of a warrior, a good clubhouse guy and good leader, deficiencies notwithstanding. Just a respect thing, and probably a good call by Molitor. Behind the scenes, I'd be surprised if Suzuki and Molitor haven't had an honest discussion about things. 

 

And I assume they think Murphy is better right now than Suzuki because, like to you and me and the six-year old next door, it became pretty obvious to the Twins that they needed to upgrade the starting catching position, both offensively and maybe even more importantly defensively. Think about what you're suggesting. Why would anyone in their right mind give up anything at all if their goal was an upgrade over Herrmann or Fryer? What they say or don't say about an open competition is hardly a significant indicator of anything.

 

[Riverbrian]

If I'm Terry Ryan. I would probably do the same thing. I'd listen to my scouts and I'd trust them because I hired them because of that trust. If they think Murphy is the guy... I'll make the deal.

 

Murphy better be better and he better play more than Zuke or I'm gonna be upset with the scout advocating this move.

 

If I'm Terry Ryan... I'm not waiting for 2017.

[twinsnorth49]

I don't think there is any doubt they want Murphy to be the guy, eventually he's going to become the main man at some point this season. Zuke is not a part of this team's future beyond this season at the very most, but he allows Murphy some security at not being thrown to the wolves right out of the gate as the everyday starter.

 

I don't think it will be that long before Murphy proves to be an upgrade over Zuke, offensively that is likely to be pretty minimal this year, hopefully more substantially next. At the end of the day though this team isn't lacking for offense that they need much out of the catcher spot, if he can OPS in the .700 range then it's his defensive improvement that will best serve the team more than Suzuki.

[Reider]

I"m not too concerned about Molitor's comments at all.

 

Murphy will have all of spring training to learn and showcase his talent. I won't be concerned unless / until:

1) Murphy isn't getting enough opportunities in the regular season to earn the starting spot

2) Murphy is outplaying Suzuki and his playing time isn't increasing accordingly.

[Otto von Ballpark]

First, I can imagine that Molitor is paying homage to the fact that Suzuki has been a bit of a warrior, a good clubhouse guy and good leader, deficiencies notwithstanding. Just a respect thing, and probably a good call by Molitor. Behind the scenes, I'd be surprised if Suzuki and Molitor haven't had an honest discussion about things.

 

And I assume they think Murphy is better right now than Suzuki because, like to you and me and the six-year old next door, it became pretty obvious to the Twins that they needed to upgrade the starting catching position, both offensively and maybe even more importantly defensively. Think about what you're suggesting. Why would anyone in their right mind give up anything at all if their goal was an upgrade over Herrmann or Fryer? What they say or don't say about an open competition is hardly a significant indicator of anything.

The Twins have apparently communicated poorly with veterans before (Pelfrey, now Mauer?), and have also underestimated deficiencies before, not sure why you'd jump to these assumptions now, that they are assessing and handling things behind the scenes perfectly in line with our opinions.

 

Also, I didn't mean that Murphy was only marginally better than Fryer or Herrmann. The Twins probably think he's got a much better future or they wouldn't have sought him out at that price. However, that says nothing about them displacing Suzuki right away, maybe in 2017 while spelling Suzuki more than a strict backup would in the meantime.

 

Maybe this situation is different, and they really do think Murphy can displace Suzuki right away, but there is virtually zero public evidence of it at this point. It is more wishcasting right now.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I agree that Murphy will regress on his babip, but while Yankee Stadium is more of a hitters park, that manifests more in home runs, especially to right field, and not actually in babip.

 

I don't put a ton of weight to any sweeping conclusions based on sss, good or bad.

Yes, this. If anything, BABIP should be lower in Yankee Stadium, as it's a smaller park with an outfield that's easier to cover acceptably.

 

We should all be concerned about Murphy's BABIP but the words "Yankee Stadium" should not enter the conversation because it's irrelevant.

 

Now if we were talking Oakland and all that foul territory (or some other stadium with an odd outfield layout - Fenway, maybe), there might be a point to be made about the stadium and BABIP.

[Thrylos]

 

First, Ryan doesn't make out the lineups, he supplies the players.  It will be Molitor in this regard.  Second, I have to give Ryan the benefit of the doubt that he felt this trade improves the catcher position.  Maybe not initially.  We'll see,

Since Murphy is new to the organization, it only makes sense that they go with Suzuki to start the season.

 

If Suzuki is still going to be the Twins' starting catcher, how does that "improve the catching situation", since it will be pretty much the same.

 

So: Ryan's 2 statements (1.Suzuki will be the starting catcher and 2. The catching situation has improved) are conflicting.  Not the first and not the last time...

 

My take is that the will try a. not to hurt Suzuki's ego and b. ease Murphy in by letting him catch a couple of pitchers that Suzuki might have trouble with (let's say Gibson and Duffey - if he makes it), see how his bat plays, she how Suzuki's plays, and take it from there.

 

Not a whole or none proposition here.

[jorgenswest]

Target Field is a hitter's park. It does depress home runs to right field but that shouldn't impact Murphy.

 

http://espn.go.com/fantasy/baseball/story/_/page/mlbdk2k16_parkfactors/which-parks-most-least-favorable-fantasy-baseball-hitters-pitchers-mlb

 

Murphy doesn't have many major league plate appearances. Four hundred spread over three years will not lead to a reliable projection or establish skill level. We can only rely on the talents of the Twins scouts in assessing his potential with the bat.

[brvama]

 

If Suzuki is still going to be the Twins' starting catcher, how does that "improve the catching situation", since it will be pretty much the same.

 

So: Ryan's 2 statements (1.Suzuki will be the starting catcher and 2. The catching situation has improved) are conflicting.  Not the first and not the last time...

 

My take is that the will try a. not to hurt Suzuki's ego and b. ease Murphy in by letting him catch a couple of pitchers that Suzuki might have trouble with (let's say Gibson and Duffey - if he makes it), see how his bat plays, she how Suzuki's plays, and take it from there.

 

Not a whole or none proposition here.

Maybe I wasn't clear enough for you on "improving the catching situation."  As others have surmised that the Twins scouts seemed to like Murphy and they likely feel he has potential to upgrade the position over Suzuki.  Thus my use of the phrase "Maybe not initially" - thus, we shall see as you so rightly stated. 

 

I strongly agree with your take on how this might play out.  We don't know that until the games begin, but certainly his bat will be the key to his playing time.

[Otwins]

I remember reading that Suzuki wears down and that was a big problem before he came to Minnesota. Last year even when he was not playing well it would have been hard to play any of the back ups. They were so bad. But should Murphy be able to start say 40% of the time it may keep Suzuki fresher and playing better. I think it is possible that Suzuki is the starter this year and the catching position is improved. That being said I do feel like a lot of the previous posters that Murphy will take over at some point this year.

[jimmer]

Twins scouts liked Correia, Worley, Meyer (as a frontline starter type) and Pelfrey and so on.  Ryan liked Pelfrey enough to give him two more years.