Berardino: Late Bullpen Additions Don't Appear a Priority

[terrydactyls]

"Late Bullpen Additions Don't Appear a Priority".  Thank goodness!  There's no one still out there that is even remotely attractive.  And for that matter, the only FA bullpen contract that, from a team standpoint, was reasonably good was Bastardo at 2 x $6M.  I would have given him that, BUT would he have taken that from the Twins instead of staying with the Pirates, where he already was comfortable and where every pitcher seems to love being, or would WE have had to come up with more $'s and/or years to pry him away.  We'll never know, but whatever, let's find out if any of the young guys can stick and be good or better MLB relievers. I'm fine with that.

 

When Bastardo signed, analysts on The MLB channel (Sirius Radio) thought the Pirates overpaid him. I'm happy the Twins did not pursue him. Hopefully the young arms are about ready to make the jump to the majors.

[jorgenswest]

Does Fien have options?

 

Since 2013, strike out rates have fallen from 30% to 20% to 16%. He is a fly ball pitcher that won't be successful without the strike outs. Looking at his pitch mix, he stopped throwing the change up (as fangraphs recognized it) after 2013 though it was his best pitch in value per 100. Was that pitch getting more swings and misses or setting up his fastball? You can see a change in both his contact and swinging strike rates since 2013. His velocity hasn't changed. Perhaps he changed his mix in hopes of limiting home runs.

 

If Fien has options, it might be worth giving him some time at AAA to see if he can find the mix that led to more swings and misses, less contact and ultimately a strike out rate almost double his rate of 2015.

[USAFChief]

When Bastardo signed, analysts on The MLB channel (Sirius Radio) thought the Pirates overpaid him. I'm happy the Twins did not pursue him. Hopefully the young arms are about ready to make the jump to the majors.

I bet those analysts are now looking for jobs. Bastardo didn't sign with the Pirates.

[terrydactyls]

 

I bet those analysts are now looking for jobs. Bastardo didn't sign with the Pirates.

 

Regardless, they still thought he was not worth what he signed for.

[gunnarthor]

 

I really think Duffey will start the year in AAA. The Twins often take the path of least resistance, and least expense. Barring any unknowns, putting Nolasco in the pen, or eating his salary fit neither of those profiles.

This was kind of the same argument we heard when Gibson had options and the Twins had three other pitchers without them as a reason why Gibson would start in AAA.  He didn't. 

 

I really think Nolasco is in trouble - unless he has a great ST, he'll start in the bullpen, leaving a spot for Duffey.  But it's still early and we have injuries and trades that can/will affect things yet. 

[h2oface]

Fien, the losing starter(s), Abad...... even Jepsen and Perkins..... are all just as big of question marks as anyone else that could be considered for the bullpen right now. Past years mean nothing as the new season starts. Absolutley nothing.

 

I still contend that Hughes, who can never (except for one season in his whole career) pitch well as a starter in April, should be in the pen to "warm up" as well, and see if he can get his velocity back and not have the team down 5-0 by the third inning.

[Kwak]

Nolasco will be paid $12MM this year, next year, and then receive a $1MM buyout--he's in 7th heaven--not trouble!

[Platoon]

Nolasco will be paid $12MM this year, next year, and then receive a $1MM buyout--he's in 7th heaven--not trouble!

Not only in heaven, in the rotation. I don't remember the Gibson scenario exactly, but there was no Nolasco size contract impeding Gibson that year. I don't know if other teams are as prone to do it, but the Twins often use the first 6 weeks of the season, minimum, as what I refer to as extended spring training. And because of his contract Nolasco gets a look where he has the only chance for them to recoup part of their investment, the starting rotation. Duffey costs nothing in AAA, and can be recalled in a flash.

[Major League Ready]

 

I just want to see somebody in the bullpen that can throw a baseball in the upper 90s. Meyer, Burdi, Chargois, whoever. Seems like the Twins minor leagues are brimming with flame throwers. Can't one of them get guys out?

Klaw was on Grant Paulsen's radio show this morning.  He said that part of the reason he ranked the Twins farm system so high is the depth of talent and he specifically mentioned the number of power arms. He acknowledged that RP prospects flame out at a high rate but that the Twins have a bunch of really good arms in the wings.  It is time to acknowledge this club has not quite completed the rebuild and finish the process.  Let's see these guys in a ML uniform.

[jimbo92107]

 

I really think Duffey will start the year in AAA. The Twins often take the path of least resistance, and least expense. Barring any unknowns, putting Nolasco in the pen, or eating his salary fit neither of those profiles.

I just don't see that happening, After his shaky start in Toronto, Tyler Duffey had the most dominant stuff of any Twins starter. If he looks anything like that in spring training, how is Paul Molitor going to send down a guy like that? Nolasco used to be good, but right now Tyler Duffey is a better pitcher, and Duffey isn't coming off injuries. Other things aside, a healthy young guy beats out an older guy who's health is dubious. When you do consider performance, then the job is Duffey's to lose.

[Platoon]

I just don't see that happening, After his shaky start in Toronto, Tyler Duffey had the most dominant stuff of any Twins starter. If he looks anything like that in spring training, how is Paul Molitor going to send down a guy like that? Nolasco used to be good, but right now Tyler Duffey is a better pitcher, and Duffey isn't coming off injuries. Other things aside, a healthy young guy beats out an older guy who's health is dubious. When you do consider performance, then the job is Duffey's to lose.

Trevor May would be the simple answer to your argument. Putting that aside, Molitor does not make a decision that deals with that level of a contract. If he did, I assume Nolasco would get cut. GM certainly consult with managers, but managers who remain employed end up acquiescing to their GM. I imagine even Ryan would prefer never seeing Nolasco again, but there are many reasons one rises to the GM level, and one is budgetary.

[Blackjack]

 

It's gonna be one of the most fun springs in years, actually more likely all the way into the first third of the season while they sort out a roster.

I agree!!!!

[alarp33]

 

I just don't see that happening, After his shaky start in Toronto, Tyler Duffey had the most dominant stuff of any Twins starter. If he looks anything like that in spring training, how is Paul Molitor going to send down a guy like that? Nolasco used to be good, but right now Tyler Duffey is a better pitcher, and Duffey isn't coming off injuries. Other things aside, a healthy young guy beats out an older guy who's health is dubious. When you do consider performance, then the job is Duffey's to lose.

 

Trevor May and JO Berrios disagree with you. 

[Kwak]

 

Trevor May would be the simple answer to your argument. Putting that aside, Molitor does not make a decision that deals with that level of a contract. If he did, I assume Nolasco would get cut. GM certainly consult with managers, but managers who remain employed end up acquiescing to their GM. I imagine even Ryan would prefer never seeing Nolasco again, but there are many reasons one rises to the GM level, and one is budgetary.

Trevor May never came close to the success of Duffey.  May's poor 2014 would have permanantly  banished him to the pen if Santana wasn't suspended for 80 games last season.  Even during that period, May was simply a younger version of Pelfrey.  

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Trevor May never came close to the success of Duffey.  May's poor 2014 would have permanantly  banished him to the pen if Santana wasn't suspended for 80 games last season.

I don't believe that at all. May's 2014 was awful but much of that "awful" came in his first few starts. When you get right down to it, May's 2014 wasn't significantly different than Gibson's 2013 and the Twins didn't hesitate to slot Kyle into the 2014 rotation from Opening Day forward.

 

The Twins generally avoid knee-jerk reactions to prospect performance. It's one of their better traits. They're not going to throw away a potential starter because he pitched 45 bad innings as a 24 year old rookie.

[DaveW]

 

Both TR and King Theo rebuilt their respective teams in less than 4 years and neither has announced a youth movement. Both have bigger fish to fry.

Two big differences:

 

1. The Cubs are much further along then the Twins, Vegas has them as one of the top 3 teams to win it all this year, care to guess where the Twins fall?

 

2. Theo inherited someone else's dumpster fire. TR basically inherited his own.

 

A rebuild isn't complete until you are a world series contender.

[drjim]

 

Two big differences:

 

1. The Cubs are much further along then the Twins, Vegas has them as one of the top 3 teams to win it all this year, care to guess where the Twins fall?

 

2. Theo inherited someone else's dumpster fire. TR basically inherited his own.

 

A rebuild isn't complete until you are a world series contender.

 

I think another difference is that Theo had more of a mandate for a complete tear down and rebuild compared to the Twins - Target Field just opening was more a handcuff for a year or two as the rebuild started. And the Cubs had better assets to move.

 

They were different situations, Ryan has done a fine job in my mind, Theo has done an incredible job.

[alarp33]

 

Two big differences:

 

1. The Cubs are much further along then the Twins, Vegas has them as one of the top 3 teams to win it all this year, care to guess where the Twins fall?

 

2. Theo inherited someone else's dumpster fire. TR basically inherited his own.

 

A rebuild isn't complete until you are a world series contender.

 

3. Sano, Gibson, Dozier, Kepler, etc. etc. were Bill Smith guys.  

 

The Cubs went to the NLCS, the Twins haven't won a post season game in 11 years, or been to the postseason in 5 seasons... but yes, TR's job here is done, rebuild complete

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

They were different situations, Ryan has done a fine job in my mind, Theo has done an incredible job.

Agreed. One can appreciate Theo's excellent rebuild strategy without bashing Ryan's (IMO, somewhat flawed) attempt. Both are showing some success.

[alarp33]

 

Agreed. One can appreciate Theo's excellent rebuild strategy without bashing Ryan's (IMO, somewhat flawed) attempt. Both are showing some success.

 

I'm just not sure I understand what TR has actually done?  

 

Filled the pitching staff w/ #4 starters making good money. His best signing was Hughes, which he completely screwed up by extending after 1 season.  

 

Traded Span + Revere for Meyer + May... meh (I liked both trades at the time)

 

Drafted the best player in the 2012 draft #2 overall.  

 

How exactly did he rebuild the team other than getting some high draft picks?  The core of last years roster were Bill Smith guys, or TR guys from his 1st go around

[Mike Sixel]

The word "late" is not needed in the title.......

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I'm just not sure I understand what TR has actually done?  

 

Filled the pitching staff w/ #4 starters making good money. His best signing was Hughes, which he completely screwed up by extending after 1 season.  

 

Traded Span + Revere for Meyer + May... meh (I liked both trades at the time)

 

Drafted the best player in the 2012 draft #2 overall.  

 

How exactly did he rebuild the team other than getting some high draft picks?  The core of last years roster were Bill Smith guys, or TR guys from his 1st go around

I don't like what he did with the pitching staff but he had to start somewhere. No arguments on the Hughes extension, as I was not a fan at the time.

 

The Revere/May trade was good, though man, Vance Worley.

 

He acquired Escobar for half a season of a very bad Liriano.

 

The Span/Meyer trade hasn't worked out I can't bitch too much, as I liked the trade.

 

However you slice the Buxton/Berrios/Duffey draft and where credit is placed, that was one hell of a draft. It could develop into the best draft in the history of the franchise.

 

He acquired Milone by giving a part-time player back to his original team.

 

Like I said, his approach has been flawed but it's starting to show results and isn't that what matters? The Twins were over .500 in his fourth season back with the team. We can deflect credit and talk about every move, both good and bad, but ultimately results are what matter.

[DaveW]

 

I think another difference is that Theo had more of a mandate for a complete tear down and rebuild compared to the Twins - Target Field just opening was more a handcuff for a year or two as the rebuild started. And the Cubs had better assets to move.

 

That is some impressive spin for "our teams sucked". How was Target Field a handcuff at all btw? Did it somehow prevent them from going out and signing quality players?

[drjim]

 

I'm just not sure I understand what TR has actually done?  

 

Filled the pitching staff w/ #4 starters making good money. His best signing was Hughes, which he completely screwed up by extending after 1 season.  

 

Traded Span + Revere for Meyer + May... meh (I liked both trades at the time)

 

Drafted the best player in the 2012 draft #2 overall.  

 

How exactly did he rebuild the team other than getting some high draft picks?  The core of last years roster were Bill Smith guys, or TR guys from his 1st go around

 

The mlb team and entire organization are in significantly better shape than 2011. Listing a handful of moves just doesn't tell the whole story - doing things like changing the minor league coordinator, changing the major and minor league coaching staffs, turing over the training staff, shifting front office in scouting, embracing additional analytics - these things should count. As an outsider it appears to me that the entire organization, from top to bottom, was rotting under Smith, and Ryan cleaned much of that up and stabilized it. There was going to be a dip in talent, but Smith, through organizational rot and hemorrhaging talent turned a dip into a collapse. 

 

To add to this, players don't enter an organization and magically appear as productive major leaguers without some process to get from there to here.

 

And saying they just picked high and that was all doesn't hold water, none of those #1 picks under Ryan have yet to make much of a mark on the mlb team, though it will change this year with Buxton.

 

(And as a side note, Buxton was the second best player in that draft)

[DaveW]

 

 

Agreed. One can appreciate Theo's excellent rebuild strategy without bashing Ryan's (IMO, somewhat flawed) attempt. Both are showing some success.

Sorry, getting extremely lucky one year  (2015) out of 4 years and getting a couple games over .500 is not "success" That barely quantifies as the bare minimum of expectations one should have for a GM (most sports franchises would fire a GM who had only one playoff series victory in 17+ years FWIW, and most sports franchises would be correct in doing so)

[drjim]

 

That is some impressive spin for "our teams sucked". How was Target Field a handcuff at all btw? Did it somehow prevent them from going out and signing quality players?

 

Because a year after it opened it would have been a pr disaster to blow the whole thing up, cut payroll significantly and play younger guys (like they should have). They had to try and compete with talent that just didn't add up, and the moves in the 2011-12 offseason showed this. Of course in the end it didn't matter and they just delayed the pain for a couple more seasons and took all the same criticism they would have otherwise.

 

When Theo took over he was able to fundamentally transform everything and spend a couple of years doing it. They had been bad long enough and the string of the previous administration had been played out that the entire franchise was ready for a complete new direction.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Sorry, getting extremely lucky one year  (2015) out of 4 years and getting a couple games over .500 is not "success" That barely quantifies as the bare minimum of expectations one should have for a GM (most sports franchises would fire a GM who had only one playoff series victory in 17+ years FWIW, and most sports franchises would be correct in doing so)

So we talk about the rebuild and you default right back to the "17 years, one playoff series" argument. That has nothing to do with the conversation, Dave.

 

And yes, going from 63 wins to over .500 in four years is a success. It is. It may not fit your desired timeline but in pure baseball terms, that is a success. Is it a resounding success in the vein of Theo and the Cubs? No, of course not... But there's a huge middle ground between "incredible" and "terrible". Ryan rebuilt the team into a fringe contender in four seasons. That's a success. Now his team needs to take the next step and 2016 will be telling.

 

And really, the luck argument is nonsense. Is it something we should keep an eye on and alter our projections for the team based on their run scoring in 2015? Sure, it's a useful tool to keep in mind and see how things shake out this season.

 

But the Twins won 83 games. Period. It doesn't matter if they got there by going 20-0 against the National League or whether they got there by praying to the baseball god Jobu. They won 83 games and played exciting baseball deep into September.

[DaveW]

 

 

The Revere/May trade was good, though man, Vance Worley.

 

He acquired Escobar for half a season of a very bad Liriano.

 

The Span/Meyer trade hasn't worked out I can't bitch too much, as I liked the trade.

 

However you slice the Buxton/Berrios/Duffey draft and where credit is placed, that was one hell of a draft. It could develop into the best draft in the history of the franchise.

 

He acquired Milone by giving a part-time player back to his original team.

 

Like I said, his approach has been flawed but it's starting to show results and isn't that what matters? The Twins were over .500 in his fourth season back with the team. We can deflect credit and talk about every move, both good and bad, but ultimately results are what matter.

Yes the May trade was good, just think how much better it would be though if they actually let May develop into a nice #2/#3 starter instead of sticking him in the pen!

 

Instead of trading Liriano, the Twins should have never messed with Liriano's approach to begin with (i.e. let him throw the slider) they should have kept Liriano around as well. Getting Escobar wasn't bad, but I would much rather have the last 3 years of Liriano on this team then the last 3 of Escobar. Also, let's not pretend that the Twins couldn't have just gotten Escobar at anytime from the White Sox anyways...

 

Milone trade was good, but Milone is just a #5 type and like clockwork TR has fallen in love with him, instead of trading him off now to open up a spot for a young high upside pitcher he has already penciled him into the rotation.

 

The Hughes original signing was very good as well, of course all of that went out the window the minute TR decided to negotiate against himself and gave Hughes a big contract extension coming off a career year. Ditto with Suzuki, handing out an extension after a career half year.

 

Since TR has been the Twins GM, even the Timberwolves have had more playoff success then the Twins.

 

Let that sink in for a moment.

 

If you have to resort to "well he traded Liriano for Escobar" as some sort of proof that Ryan has done "good" at the helm, then it is clear that the stone cold reality is that Terry Ryan frankly is one of the worst ten GM's in baseball and has been for quite some time.

[alarp33]

 

The mlb team and entire organization are in significantly better shape than 2011. Listing a handful of moves just doesn't tell the whole story - doing things like changing the minor league coordinator, changing the major and minor league coaching staffs, turing over the training staff, shifting front office in scouting, embracing additional analytics - these things should count. As an outsider it appears to me that the entire organization, from top to bottom, was rotting under Smith, and Ryan cleaned much of that up and stabilized it. There was going to be a dip in talent, but Smith, through organizational rot and hemorrhaging talent turned a dip into a collapse. 

 

To add to this, players don't enter an organization and magically appear as productive major leaguers without some process to get from there to here.

 

And saying they just picked high and that was all doesn't hold water, none of those #1 picks under Ryan have yet to make much of a mark on the mlb team, though it will change this year with Buxton.

 

(And as a side note, Buxton was the second best player in that draft)

 

Buxton was rated the top player in the draft by nearly every scout.  The Astros saved money by drafting Correa, that they used to take McCullers I believe.  Definitely worked out well for them. 

 

 As for the top paragraph, I'm sorry if I'm not inclined to pat Ryan on the back for these perceived changes.  Much of the front office staff remains the same as it has been 10+ years.  He gets credit for changing the MLB staff? It only took 4 years of 90+ losses to do that.  

 

 

[Vanimal46]

 

The Revere/May trade was good, though man, Vance Worley..

Finally, I'm getting some credit on this GD site!!! I really wasn't that bad everyone!