Berardino: Late Bullpen Additions Don't Appear a Priority

[DaveW]

 

 

So we talk about the rebuild and you default right back to the "17 years, one playoff series" argument. That has nothing to do with the conversation, Dave.

 

And yes, going from 63 wins to over .500 in four years is a success. It is. It may not fit your desired timeline but in pure baseball terms, that is a success. Is it a resounding success in the vein of Theo and the Cubs? No, of course not... But there's a huge middle ground between "incredible" and "terrible". Ryan rebuilt the team into a fringe contender in four seasons. That's a success. Now his team needs to take the next step and 2016 will be telling.

 

And really, the luck argument is nonsense. Is it something we should keep an eye on and alter our projections for the team based on their run scoring in 2015? Sure, it's a useful tool to keep in mind and see how things shake out this season.

 

But the Twins won 83 games. Period. It doesn't matter if they got there by going 20-0 against the National League or whether they got there by praying to the baseball god Jobu. They won 83 games and played exciting baseball deep into September.

Again going 83-79 should be the absolute bare minimum expectations. Sorry if I am not going to finance a 30 for 30 special on that magical season where the Twins (along with every other team but two) had a shot at the 2nd wild card heading into the last 2 weeks of the season!

 

His lack of success overall (1 in 17) has absolutely everything to do with the conversation, Ryan has zero track record of building a team that can compete for a World Series, why do you give him the benefit of the doubt now? When in his almost two decades at the helm only produced one team that even sniffed the World Series.

 

The Twins we a 75-76 win team last year, luck pushed them over the top, it's fool hardy to expect that extreme luck to continue. Ryan clearly is banking on that since he failed to address:

 

1. The front end of the rotation.

2. The OF

3. The Bullpen

 

In any meaningful way. Instead we got another DH and a backup catcher.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Again going 83-79 should be the absolute bare minimum expectations. 

Huh. Tell that to the Astros or Pirates, who were still in the high 60s, low 70s win range in their fourth seasons of rebuilding. Obviously, their rebuilds were colossal failures. I mean, their GMs were fired after those seasons, right?

 

Listen, I'm not claiming Ryan is doing a fantastic job. There are loads of things that irritate the **** out of me but the fact remains his team won 83 games last season. If the team progresses this season, then the rebuild is still on track and this team has a bright future. If the team fades, it's time to take a good long look at how he's running the franchise.

 

But I'm not going to resort to arguments based around 10+ year old decisions, "luck", and compare the Twins rebuild to the most well-run franchise in baseball to prove a point that Ryan is terrible.

 

If you want me to say "I wish Epstein was the Twins GM/President", well yeah. Who wouldn't want that to happen?

[drjim]

 

Buxton was rated the top player in the draft by nearly every scout.  The Astros saved money by drafting Correa, that they used to take McCullers I believe.  Definitely worked out well for them. 

 

 As for the top paragraph, I'm sorry if I'm not inclined to pat Ryan on the back for these perceived changes.  Much of the front office staff remains the same as it has been 10+ years.  He gets credit for changing the MLB staff? It only took 4 years of 90+ losses to do that.  

 

Actually not really. In that time they have a new Analytics department, new director of minor league operations, new minor league field coordinator, new scouting director, new pro scouting director, new baseball operations guy to name just some of the changes.

 

Some guys have moved into higher level assistant positions but basically every key position has a new person, almost all since Ryan took over again in 2012.

[DaveW]

 

Huh. Tell that to the Astros or Pirates, who were still in the high 60s, low 70s win range in their fourth seasons of rebuilding. Obviously, their rebuilds were colossal failures. I mean, their GMs were fired after those seasons, right?

 

Listen, I'm not claiming Ryan is doing a fantastic job. There are loads of things that irritate the **** out of me but the fact remains his team won 83 games last season. If the team progresses this season, then the rebuild is still on track and this team has a bright future. If the team fades, it's time to take a good long look at how he's running the franchise.

 

But I'm not going to resort to arguments based around 10+ year old decisions, "luck", and compare the Twins rebuild to the most well-run franchise in baseball to prove a point that Ryan is terrible.

Pittsburgh and Houston are two of the biggest dumpster fires of franchises over the last 25 years, I really don't care how they view "success"

See this is where the TR apologists and the rest of us disagree, many would argue that prior to 2014, or 2015 or 2016 (or before TR ever came back) would have been time to take a good long look on how he has ran the franchise for the better part of two decades.

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

See this is where the TR apologists and the rest of us disagree

Sigh. Strawman alert. Get back to me when you decide to argue my points honestly and without broadly categorizing me as something I obviously am not.

 

Or maybe you conveniently forgot how downright furious I was in July of last season. I mean, that's easy to do, as it was all of seven months ago.

[alarp33]

 

 

 

Like I said, his approach has been flawed but it's starting to show results and isn't that what matters? The Twins were over .500 in his fourth season back with the team. We can deflect credit and talk about every move, both good and bad, but ultimately results are what matter.

 

He started to see results based some on luck, and some on good seasons from Rosario (Smith), Sano (Smith), Dozier (Smith), Plouffe (TR Round 1).  

 

Getting Escobar was nice, he also gave up a pretty damn good pitcher to get him.  

 

What happens when nearly the same team as last year wins 76 games this season? Bill Smith's fault I would assume?

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

What happens when nearly the same team as last year wins 76 games this season? Bill Smith's fault I would assume?

Don't assume anything about me.

 

If people don't start arguing the merits of another poster's arguments and drop the assumptions, I will begin issuing warning points in this thread.

 

If you can't avoid assumptions and framing arguments in points another poster did not make, think long and hard before you hit the "Post" button. It's lazy debate and not the kind of posting we tolerate at Twins Daily.

[Mike Sixel]

Remember when this was a thread about the lack of action on the bullpen?

 

and not about the 400th time we've had this conversation about BS vs TR vs "the rebuild is done"?

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Trevor May never came close to the success of Duffey.  May's poor 2014 would have permanantly  banished him to the pen if Santana wasn't suspended for 80 games last season.  Even during that period, May was simply a younger version of Pelfrey.  

8 K/9 as a rookie starter in 2015 was "simply a younger version of Pelfrey"?

 

Also, May was kept in the MLB rotation over Milone for a stretch last year too, which suggest they like him quite a bit as a starter, but his stuff plays better in the bullpen than most of our other starters.

 

I think the same might eventually happen for Duffey -- actually, looking at his splits the second and third time through the order in 2015, I suspect Duffey might soon "earn" a spot in the bullpen more than May ever did.

[DaveW]

 

Sigh. Strawman alert. Get back to me when you decide to argue my points honestly and without broadly categorizing me as something I obviously am not.

 

Or maybe you conveniently forgot how downright furious I was in July of last season. I mean, that's easy to do, as it was all of seven months ago.

You are the one who literally just said more or less "well if the Twins have a bad 2016, then its time to take a long hard look at Terry Ryan the GM" I am simply pointing out that there were many of us who never thought he should have been back to begin with, which is looking pretty spot on at this stage. Additionally I would say we should have taken a good hard look immediately after the Nolasco, Hughes (extension), Suzuki Extension all completely tanked.

[DaveW]

 

 

Remember when this was a thread about the lack of action on the bullpen?

 

and not about the 400th time we've had this conversation about BS vs TR vs "the rebuild is done"?

I think it's valid to bring up TR's plan as a whole now and moving forward, his inaction with the bullpen this off season has been especially head scratching.

 

Don't assume anything about me.

 

If people don't start arguing the merits of another poster's arguments and drop the assumptions, I will begin issuing warning points in this thread.

 

If you can't avoid assumptions and framing arguments in points another poster did not make, think long and hard before you hit the "Post" button. It's lazy debate and not the kind of posting we tolerate at Twins Daily.

Methinks you are taking things a little too personally in this thread Brock, nobody is creating strawmen and nobody is assuming anything about you.

[alarp33]

 

Don't assume anything about me.

 

If people don't start arguing the merits of another poster's arguments and drop the assumptions, I will begin issuing warning points in this thread.

 

If you can't avoid assumptions and framing arguments in points another poster did not make, think long and hard before you hit the "Post" button. It's lazy debate and not the kind of posting we tolerate at Twins Daily.

 

Ha - you "assumed" I was talking about you, and not in general.  But way to kill a reasonable discussion with this post. 

[howieramone2]

 

You are the one who literally just said more or less "well if the Twins have a bad 2016, then its time to take a long hard look at Terry Ryan the GM" I am simply pointing out that there were many of us who never thought he should have been back to begin with, which is looking pretty spot on at this stage.

When TR came back he was viewed as a messiah. He has the total support of the local paying fans.

[Vanimal46]

The frustrating part about this off-season was TR making it known the bullpen was a priority, and other than a couple of minor league signings, which happens every off-season, nothing else was done (purely talking about the bullpen here, not the trade for Murphy/signing of Park)

Too late now, these are the players the Twins are going to ST with. If the youth movement is finally here, I will embrace it. With a catch: if that youth movement includes Burdi, Chargois, or Rogers making the MLB team out of camp over the likes of Tonkin or the other minor league signings. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Ha - you "assumed" I was talking about you, and not in general.  But way to kill a reasonable discussion with this post. 

I'm not going to debate this but you were directly replying to my post. The implication is that you are talking to me when you do that.

 

I think it's valid to bring up TR's plan as a whole now and moving forward, his inaction with the bullpen this off season has been especially head scratching.

I'm sorry I've participated in yet another thread derailment. I agree the lack of bullpen acquisitions are frustrating and worthy of discussion. I've complained about this offseason many, many times.

 

But I'm not going to allow this to devolve into another "bash Ryan" thread.

 

Everyone, bring this thread back on topic. If you want to discuss the bullpen, this is the place to do it. If you want to talk about how much you love/hate everything Ryan does, there are literally hundreds of other threads in which to discuss that topic.

[TheLeviathan]

 

When TR came back he was viewed as a messiah. He has the total support of the local paying fans.

 

Would've been nice if he had turned my water into wine for free then if we're going down the messiah track.  Could've saved me a few bucks....

[gunnarthor]

Wow, this thread became a dumpster fire.  "Facts" being used with no context? Check. Angry assumptions and innuendo? Check.  Barely concealed insults and contempt for other posters? Check.  

 

I bet we can make this thread go longer than the Zach Jones thread!

[drjim]

 

Remember when this was a thread about the lack of action on the bullpen?

 

and not about the 400th time we've had this conversation about BS vs TR vs "the rebuild is done"?

 

Agreed. The 10th time discussing bullpen inactivity was by far the most captivating.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

The frustrating part about this off-season was TR making it known the bullpen was a priority, and other than a couple of minor league signings, which happens every off-season, nothing else was done (purely talking about the bullpen here, not the trade for Murphy/signing of Park)

I simply don't understand how someone can talk about a team weakness and then make no attempt to shore up that deficiency in a meaningful way.

 

As I said earlier, if Ryan has secret plans to usher in the Meyer/Burdi era on Opening Day, that makes this decision more palatable... But I'm skeptical that will happen, particularly with Burdi (and I'd like to see Meyer get one more shot at starting).

 

Which means this bullpen's ceiling is "acceptable" with a floor of "my eyes, they're bleeding".

[Otto von Ballpark]

Funny, it was a line from my post, taken woefully out of context, that inspired this hijack.  I chose not to respond to the out-of-context response, and I recommend the same action for others.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Funny, it was a line from my post, taken woefully out of context, that inspired this hijack.  I chose not to respond to the out-of-context response, and I recommend the same action for others.

http://www.todayifoundout.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/burned-at-the-stake.jpg

[Vanimal46]

 

I simply don't understand how someone can talk about a team weakness and then make no attempt to shore up that deficiency in a meaningful way.

 

As I said earlier, if Ryan has secret plans to usher in the Meyer/Burdi era on Opening Day, that makes this decision more palatable... But I'm skeptical that will happen, particularly with Burdi (and I'd like to see Meyer get one more shot at starting).

 

Which means this bullpen's ceiling is "acceptable" with a floor of "my eyes, they're bleeding".

Pretty much. TR sounded confident at the beginning of this off-season that there was going to be activity to shore up this weakness, and something else happened where he backed off of it. Whether it was him thinking I should be able to sign someone who's above average for a 1 year deal and that person wanted multiple years, or the price tag scared him off, something happened. Could be a little of column A, a little of column B.

I guess some could argue the Twins weren't prepared for the RP market this off-season, maybe had too conservative of projections on what these pitchers should be making. Or it could be an anomaly where the market blew up and they're waiting it out. I'm leaning more towards the former, but that's just me.   

[DaveW]

Back to the bullpen. If TR wants to leave spots open for the kids to compete/pitch, by all means do it. But if you are going to do that, then why on EARTH do you resign Fien? For a little more in AAV and one more year in a contract they could have let Fien walk and actually be able to sign a legit 7th/8th inning type. Replace Fien with a guy like that and suddenly the bullpen looks so much better. The young kids can come along at their own speed without as much pressure, as it stands now, one of them needs to step up to be that shutdown 7th inning guy, because Fien certainly is not it.

 

Essentially signing Fien as your only real "move" of the off season for the pen is unacceptable.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I guess some could argue the Twins weren't prepared for the RP market this off-season, maybe had too conservative of projections on what these pitchers should be making. Or it could be an anomaly where the market blew up and they're waiting it out. I'm leaning more towards the former, but that's just me.   

I don't fault Ryan for passing over some of the early action, as much of it seemed overpriced and competing in a seller's market is a bad way to run a baseball team most of the time.

 

But nothing? Ugh... When Bastardo went to the Mets for 2/$12m, that was a tough pill for me to swallow.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Back to the bullpen. If TR wants to leave spots open for the kids to compete/pitch, by all means do it. But if you are going to do that, then why on EARTH do you resign Fien? 

It allows you to save a few bucks on jerseys?

 

Really, though, I don't understand most of the action/non-action surrounding the bullpen. Outside of offering arb to Jepsen I don't know if I agree with a single move. Well, maybe Abad as a third or fourth option. That was fine, I suppose.

[nicksaviking]

 

Back to the bullpen. If TR wants to leave spots open for the kids to compete/pitch, by all means do it. But if you are going to do that, then why on EARTH do you resign Fien? For a little more in AAV and one more year in a contract they could have let Fien walk and actually be able to sign a legit 7th/8th inning type. Replace Fien with a guy like that and suddenly the bullpen looks so much better. The young kids can come along at their own speed without as much pressure, as it stands now, one of them needs to step up to be that shutdown 7th inning guy, because Fien certainly is not it.

 

Essentially signing Fien as your only real "move" of the off season for the pen is unacceptable.

 

I would guess that if the team is actually going to have open spots for the young guys, Fien's job is less than a lock. His salary is not completely guaranteed, I'd think at the very least that makes Fien a bit uncomfortable about his position on the team.

 

I'm also wondering how people are going to feel if the team rolls with the low-ceiling vets and AAAA types early on but the actual plan is for the young guys who are performing to be up by May? I've been pretty vocal about my hope for the young guys to take over the pen in masse, and I've heard others voice their support but are skeptical the Twins would actually go that route. But what if that route ends up being a just month later than most of us would most prefer? Is that a huge issue? Just curious.

[Mike Sixel]

How often do teams cut veterans in early May? I bet not as often as we think, and certainly not multiple veterans, I'd think.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

How often do teams cut veterans in early May? I bet not as often as we think, and certainly not multiple veterans, I'd think.

Not multiple veterans at once. That's a tall order... But hopefully they'll start rotating the young guys in one at a time in May (if not Spring Training). If the bullpen is full of young pitchers in July, I'll find it hard to complain too much.

[drjim]

 

Not multiple veterans at once. That's a tall order... But hopefully they'll start rotating the young guys in one at a time in May (if not Spring Training). If the bullpen is full of young pitchers in July, I'll find it hard to complain too much.

 

In reality how many vets are there to cut? Perkins and Jepsen aren't going anywhere (except maybe the DL), Nolasco will likely move into the rotation for the occasional spot start. That leaves Fien, who actually has an option. Maybe Abad, but that shows the value of the minor league deal.

 

The rest, right now, are young guys, right? Perhaps that is some of the wisdom of not going 2-3 years on decent but not elite free agents, those are the ones who would be locked in and block young guys from emerging.

[alarp33]

 

Back to the bullpen. If TR wants to leave spots open for the kids to compete/pitch, by all means do it. But if you are going to do that, then why on EARTH do you resign Fien? For a little more in AAV and one more year in a contract they could have let Fien walk and actually be able to sign a legit 7th/8th inning type. Replace Fien with a guy like that and suddenly the bullpen looks so much better. The young kids can come along at their own speed without as much pressure, as it stands now, one of them needs to step up to be that shutdown 7th inning guy, because Fien certainly is not it.

 

Essentially signing Fien as your only real "move" of the off season for the pen is unacceptable.

 

At the risk of making an assumption about Terry Ryan's feelings... 

 

Casey Fien had a 3.55 ERA last season.  He sees this as being a good pitcher, I don't think he looks much beyond that.  In the interview with Reusse he basically lumped Fien in with Perkins, Jepsen and May as being the rocks of the bullpen.