Article: Who's Left? The Remaining Southpaw RP Market

[Vanimal46]

 

I see number of people espousing the strategy of staying away from guaranteed free agent contracts, opting instead to head to camp with the present collection of non-roster invites and prospects, then choosing the best ones. 

 

Theoretically, I like this strategy, because it isn't THAT hard to find a lefty who gets lefties out, and it keeps you away from any monetary commitments that would block a younger player.

I agree with this statement, but it's mainly the result of the Twins' inactivity, and this is what we're left with. There were several guaranteed contracts I would have liked the Twins to pursue (Bastardo, Sipp, Storen, etc.) But now that we're here, and the options are what you presented, I think myself and others are thinking what's the point? Might as well go with the young guys instead of Duensing again.... 

[Lee-The-Twins-Fan]

Personally, I think the Twins should avoid Duensing. Maybe bring back Cotts on a minor league deal. the problem is that the Twins' 40-man roster is full, and they've got some really good talent on it - and not just pitchers. That's a really good problem to have. But to risk losing a player like Vargas, just to get another pitcher on the roster is foolishness. 

 

I don't understand sacrificing Darnell for Strong. Darnell has a much better record at AAA. They must like what they see.

 

In short, I'm OK with the team not signing any free-agent pitchers this off-season. They have enough talent on the 40-man roster they don't need more.

 

The bullpen won't be a disaster in 2016. It may not be the best in the AL, but it won't be the worst. meanwhile with guys like Sano, Park, Dozier, Plouffe and Buxton, the team will score some serious runs. 

 

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

But O'Rourke is also an example of why this strategy is dangerous. He had all of the numbers in the minors to suggest he was more than capable. He started off smoothly, and Molitor even used him pretty well (more PA v. LH than RH), but things went off the rails and he had these horrible control spells based on, what we can only assume, were adjustments to the MLB stage and learning curve.

 

This is something you have to factor in when looking at a rookie like Taylor Rogers who looks great for the role on paper. 

Agreed.  Which makes it extra frustrating that, despite having no apparent interest in participating in the FA RP market, the team still didn't bother investigating some of their top internal options last year (i.e. Rogers).

 

Also, I don't know if simply "more PA vs LH than RH" equals "used pretty well" for a guy like O'Rourke.  Everything about his record screams extra strict LOOGY, sort of strange he was the one they promoted if they were looking for a reliever to, say, get some key outs vs RH in a game against the Yankees. (Once they finally get around to putting Rogers in the pen, he might be that guy, but probably never O'Rourke.)

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I see number of people espousing the strategy of staying away from guaranteed free agent contracts, opting instead to head to camp with the present collection of non-roster invites and prospects, then choosing the best ones. 

 

Theoretically, I like this strategy, because it isn't THAT hard to find a lefty who gets lefties out, and it keeps you away from any monetary commitments that would block a younger player.

 

However, it is also dependent on the Twins identifying the right players for the bullpen, often -- in this case -- based on minimal MLB data. I just haven't seen a lot in recent years that gives me confidence in that. There have been a lot of really head-scratching personnel decisions in that department that have taken far too long to correct. 

Agreed here too.  I'm all for using internal options, if you're going to actually use them, and aggressively.  Preferring mediocre vets, minor league journeymen, and guys you're looking to cut from the 40-man roster anyway has been more the rule around here lately.

 

I wanted them to acquire another good Jepsen-type reliever, to improve the pen but also as proof that the above state of affairs was over.

[gocgo]

Agree with savvy.  Feel like I'm looking at the candidates for the presidency and, like that decision, looking for the "None of the above" box.

 

[Seth Stohs]

Personally, I prefer Rogers and O'Rourke at the start of the season. IF they want a true LOOGY, O'Rourke would fit the role just fine. So would Rogers, though I think he can be more too. Both are great against lefties, and would have to be used appropriately by the manager. As Nick said, we don't know that would happen. 

 

Frankly, none of the names mentioned above can or should hope for more than one year and $2 million. At that amount, any is fine. Thought again, outside of Morales, I don't think any are necessarily better than internal options.

[DJL44]

I'd rather have Tyler Clippard than any of these lefties. He held lefties to a .468 OPS last season.

[Rosterman]

Yes, it starts to come down to 40-man roster moves. You MAY have someone go on the disabled list. You MAY trade someone out of spring training. You have to make choices on Arcia, Santana and others. 

 

I picture the Twins will add Abad. They may make a last minute play for Choate, but then they have to designate Hocks, or Strong or O'Rourke. Not many names to cut from the 40-man.

 

Then it will be a simple matter of the arms that come north in the bullpen keeping their job or shuttling down to Rochester (and off the 40-man). Telling time for Pressly, Graham, Fien, Rogers, Tonkin. Of course, Pat Dean is a probable casualty. Who else can the Twins send away? Vargas? Nunez?

 

So right now, it is a pretty full plate for the Twins, making a decision on the rotation and seeing if anyone can go from there, having too many names in the pen, 3 catchers but none overwhelming, decisions to be made on Vargas and Arcia short-term or long-term.

 

I wouldn't sign any of the above with the current roster situation. I wish there were people knocking down the Minnesota door to trade for a piece of our not-so-good pie, but I don't see the Twins flipping anyone for anything but a mid-level prospect at best.

[Monkeypaws]

I'm just hoping the Twins score a lot of runs this season, and a niche bullpen spot will be irrelevant.

 

The lack of a lefty shutdown guy in the Twins BP sure isn't keeping me from sleeping at night.

 

Damn those Royals for making it look like the bullpen was the uber alles attribute of a champion team. Screw the pen: starting pitching and offense will be what determines the 2016 Twins fate, not the lack of a lefty specialist, which we may already have.

Edited January 26, 2016 by Monkeypaws

[magiklair]

It's too late at this point for a decent sign.. They had their chance and blew it.. 

[gil4]

 

Will any of these guys play for free?

 

Unless it's a minor league deal, free is too expensive.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Interesting that Tampa Bay just traded away Jake McGee.

 

The Twins would have seemed to be a great trading partner. Plenty of young outfielders in our system, which was what McGee sold for. The Rays also look light at catcher. I wonder if the Twins might have sweetened the pot last year when they traded for Jepsen and got back McGee instead. 

[old nurse]

What is the Twin equivalent of Dickerson? Kepler? 2 fer with Rosario and Vargas?

[jay]

What is the Twin equivalent of Dickerson? Kepler? 2 fer with Rosario and Vargas?

More.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

 

What is the Twin equivalent of Dickerson? Kepler? 2 fer with Rosario and Vargas?

As always, it depends on who you ask and when you ask it.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Some interesting comparisons, since Dickerson is a lefty-hitting outfielder, and the Twins currently have 3 of those.

 

MLB slash lines (outside of Coors Field):

 

Dickerson, 483 PA: 249/286/410, OPS 695

O. Arcia, 853 PA: 243/305/437, OPS 741

Rosario, 474 PA: 267/289/459, OPS 748

 

Age

 

Kepler, 23

Rosario, 24

Arcia, 25

Dickerson, 27

 

Health

 

Kepler, ok

Rosario, ok

Arcia, ok

Dickerson, plantar fasciitis 

 

Quick and dirty fielding rank (UZR/150),

selected for min. 600 innings from 2014-2015:

 

Rosario, 35 of 144

C. Dickerson, 115 of 144

Oswaldo Arcia, 118 of 144

 

 

 

[USAFChief]

Some interesting comparisons, since Dickerson is a lefty-hitting outfielder, and the Twins currently have 3 of those.

 

MLB slash lines (outside of Coors Field):

 

Dickerson, 483 PA: 249/286/410, OPS 695

O. Arcia, 853 PA: 243/305/437, OPS 741

Rosario, 474 PA: 267/289/459, OPS 748

 

Age

 

Kepler, 23

Rosario, 24

Arcia, 25

Dickerson, 27

 

Health

 

Kepler, ok

Rosario, ok

Arcia, ok

Dickerson, plantar fasciitis 

 

Quick and dirty fielding rank (UZR/150),

selected for min. 600 innings from 2014-2015:

 

Rosario, 35 of 144

C. Dickerson, 115 of 144

Oswaldo Arcia, 118 of 144

Shhhhhh...don't mess with the narrative.

[jay]

Some interesting comparisons, since Dickerson is a lefty-hitting outfielder, and the Twins currently have 3 of those.

 

MLB slash lines (outside of Coors Field):

 

Dickerson, 483 PA: 249/286/410, OPS 695

O. Arcia, 853 PA: 243/305/437, OPS 741

Rosario, 474 PA: 267/289/459, OPS 748

If you're going to only use road splits for one, at least do that for all of them.

Dickerson, 695 OPS

Arcia, 707

Rosario, 595

Edited January 29, 2016 by jay

[USAFChief]

If you're going to only use road splits for one, at least do that for all of them.

Dickerson, 695 OPS

Arcia, 707

Rosario, 595

I think "everywhere except Coors" is a pretty fair standard for any player.

[old nurse]

 

Shhhhhh...don't mess with the narrative.

Plantar facitis is such a career altering disease

[jay]

 

I think "everywhere except Coors" is a pretty fair standard for any player.

 

Sure, except there's a well known difference between home and road splits for MLB. If you're making a comparison, why would you use one player's road splits but not do the same for the others? 

 

MLB 2015: Home .740 OPS / Road .702 OPS

Edited January 29, 2016 by jay

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

If you're going to only use road splits for one, at least do that for all of them.

Dickerson, 695 OPS

Arcia, 707

Rosario, 595

I saw that. Didn't feel it was relevant.

 

Got any other data?

[DJL44]

 

I think "everywhere except Coors" is a pretty fair standard for any player.

 

It throws out half Dickerson's plate appearances. Most players play better at home, so he's penalized again. Plus there is a bit of a "Coors hangover" that depresses the road stats for Rockies players. Just use adjusted OPS+.

[stringer bell]

I think "everywhere except Coors" is a pretty fair standard for any player.

Morneau and Cuddyer (and their batting championships) disagree with you.

[howieramone2]

 

Our existing options are just as bad as these listed. The front office has masterfully left itself no options which they will turn around and tell everyone "there are no viable options" to improve the bullpen.

 

There really isn't any point in getting upset or even discussing it at this point. Their bullpen is going to be horrendous. They might as well just go with their internal options and get on with it.

Not so. Most likely the biggest improvement on the team will be the bullpen. Perkins, Jepsen, and May alone will move us somewhere towards the middle. Fien is solid. Plenty of time to add additional pieces for what will likely be our 5th, 6th, and 7th bullpen arms. At some point in time, pitching becomes a numbers game and we certainly have the numbers with minor league free agents and a number of near ready top prospects.

 

No one will deny the handling of the bullpen was frustrating last season, but the past is not a perfect predictor of the future. I'm more concerned with our starters and our offense.

 

I do feel the competition in ST will be fierce for bullpen arms and am very curious what the pecking order will be when they break camp. Too much talent at the top with the big 3, and too much talent in the pipeline to fail.

Edited January 29, 2016 by howieramone2

[tobi0040]

 

Not so. Most likely the biggest improvement on the team will be the bullpen. Perkins, Jepsen, and May alone will move us somewhere towards the middle. Fien is solid. Plenty of time to add additional pieces for what will likely be our 5th, 6th, and 7th bullpen arms. At some point in time, pitching becomes a numbers game and we certainly have the numbers with minor league free agents and a number of near ready top prospects.

 

No one will deny the handling of the bullpen was frustrating last season, but the past is not a perfect predictor of the future. I'm more concerned with our starters and our offense.

 

I do feel the competition in ST will be fierce for bullpen arms and am very curious what the pecking order will be when they break camp. Too much talent at the top with the big 3, and too much talent in the pipeline to fail.

 

May was moved to the pen around the 4th of July and we traded for Jepsen on 7/31.   So we had Perkins, Jepsen, May, and Fien for most of the second half. 

 

In the second half the pen was   21st in ERA, 22nd in WAR,  28th in k per 9 and  25th in FIP.  It is true that Glen did fade down the stretch, but it is fair to also say that he has had a better first half three years in a row now.  Also, Jepsen had an ERA about two runs lower with us than his career numbers.  So he is likely to regress.  

 

I think most teams have better set up guys than we do and our depth is a huge question mark if Glen is not healthy or ineffective again.  

 

Glen's ERA the last three years (first half / second half)

 

2013 –  1.82 / 2.89
2014 – 2.97 / 4.84
2015 – 1.21 / 7.32

 

 

Edited January 29, 2016 by tobi0040

[drjim]

After the trade the Rockies DFAed Christian Friedrich. I would take a shot on him.

 

His numbers are pretty brutal, but he does significantly better against lefties and significantly better on the road. Maybe a change of scenery could lead to a rebound.

 

He had first round pedigree, and I think he has plenty of stuff from when I watched him.

[drjim]

Unless they don't trust McGee's medicals, I'm pretty sure the Twins would have traded Arcia for him. If I'm the Rays I would rather have Dickerson in a heartbeat. How's that for a narrative?

[howieramone2]

 

May was moved to the pen around the 4th of July and we traded for Jepsen on 7/31.   So we had Perkins, Jepsen, May, and Fien for most of the second half. 

 

In the second half the pen was   21st in ERA, 22nd in WAR,  28th in k per 9 and  25th in FIP.  It is true that Glen did fade down the stretch, but it is fair to also say that he has had a better first half three years in a row now.  Also, Jepsen had an ERA about two runs lower with us than his career numbers.  So he is likely to regress.  

 

I think most teams have better set up guys than we do and our depth is a huge question mark if Glen is not healthy or ineffective again.  

 

Glen's ERA the last three years (first half / second half)

 

2013 –  1.82 / 2.89
2014 – 2.97 / 4.84
2015 – 1.21 / 7.32

I say that's impossible. Our bullpen depth does not depend on one player, and Jepsen can regress a great deal and still be solid. Perkins is an All-Star closer until he`s not.

[jay]

 

I saw that. Didn't feel it was relevant.

Got any other data?

 

Relevant to what? If you don't think that provides a more fair comparison, I'm sure not going to bother with more "data".