Article: Who's Left? The Remaining Southpaw RP Market

[USAFChief]

 

Unless they don't trust McGee's medicals, I'm pretty sure the Twins would have traded Arcia for him. If I'm the Rays I would rather have Dickerson in a heartbeat. How's that for a narrative?

How confident are you the Twins even asked the Rays about McGee?

 

$4.8M in 2016.  The Twins are not taking on payroll, that's pretty obvious, no?

 

 

[DaveW]

 

Perkins is an All-Star closer until he`s not.

So basically the entire second half of 2015?

Perk is my favorite Twin, but it's foolish for the team not to have more options in case the injury/ineffectiveness continues.

Edited January 29, 2016 by DaveW

[drjim]

How confident are you the Twins even asked the Rays about McGee?

 

$4.8M in 2016. The Twins are not taking on payroll, that's pretty obvious, no?

Quite confident they checked in, not sure if it progressed much, and glad it didn't - I wouldn't want them to match that package. Good trade for the Rays.

[USAFChief]

 

Quite confident they checked in, not sure if it progressed much, and glad it didn't - I wouldn't want them to match that package. Good trade for the Rays.

We'll see.  I'm doubtful.  

[drjim]

We'll see. I'm doubtful.

Two years of a reliever with some elbow questions for four years of an everyday guy with foot problems. I'll bet on everyday guy and years.

 

I imagine it would have taken Kepler.

[USAFChief]

 

Two years of a reliever with some elbow questions for four years of an everyday guy with foot problems. I'll bet on everyday guy and years.

I imagine it would have taken Kepler.

If it would have taken Kepler, obviously "no."

 

But I don't see any way Dickerson is a comp for Kepler.

 

Arcia is probably too low, but probably a workable starting point.  Good minor league hitting history, some warts.  Arcia is also a couple years younger.

 

And for the record, it's a bit of a stretch to call Dickerson an "everyday" guy.  He's most likely a LH hitting part of a platoon.  

[tobi0040]

 

I say that's impossible. Our bullpen depth does not depend on one player, and Jepsen can regress a great deal and still be solid. Perkins is an All-Star closer until he`s not.

 

Jepsen and Fein have career ERA+ of 110 and 107.  Every team in our division has at least two set up guys with a better career ERA+.

 

Royals

Davis (around 400 as a reliever).   Herrera (159)

 

CWS

Duke (155 and 115 as a reliever).    Petricka (120)

 

DET

Wilson (148)   Al A. (127)

 

CLE

Shaw (134)   Mccalister  (145 in 2015 as a reliever, switched to the pen in 2014 with a 2.77 ERA with a .568 OPS against but I can’t find ERA+ with splits).

[tobi0040]

 

How confident are you the Twins even asked the Rays about McGee?

 

$4.8M in 2016.  The Twins are not taking on payroll, that's pretty obvious, no?

 

I was told it was about the years, not the dollars

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Arcia is probably too low, but probably a workable starting point.  Good minor league hitting history, some warts.  Arcia is also a couple years younger.

Teams rarely trade value for a struggling player who is out of options.  There is a decent chance that Arcia will be available for pennies on the dollar in March.

 

The Twins don't have a good comparable for Dickerson right now, which means it's very possible the Rays would have asked the Twins for more (i.e. Kepler) or just not be interested at all.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

but I can’t find ERA+ with splits

That's why I use ERA- at times in these discussions, Fangraphs lets you get those stats for starters and relievers separately.  You can also easily make custom player lists there for comparison.

 

Here's your list at Fangraphs by career relief ERA-:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=rel&lg=all&qual=0&type=1&season=2015&month=0&season1=2005&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=7441,6033,3840,10534,4301,6324,8110,2895,6475,3926&sort=14,a

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

After the trade the Rockies DFAed Christian Friedrich. I would take a shot on him.

Friedrich is out of options which complicates things.  You'd have to drop someone from the 40-man to add him right now, then you'd have to give him evaluation opportunities in spring training (presumably taking away opportunities from other relief options) before you'd have to make a decision to put him on your opening day roster or waive him again yourself.

 

Just looking at his age and numbers, that seems like too much of a commitment right now.  If he clears waivers and the Rockies outright him, you might get a crack at him as a minor league free agent after the season anyway if you are still interested.

[drjim]

 

Teams rarely trade value for a struggling player who is out of options.  There is a decent chance that Arcia will be available for pennies on the dollar in March.

 

The Twins don't have a good comparable for Dickerson right now, which means it's very possible the Rays would have asked the Twins for more (i.e. Kepler) or just not be interested at all.

 

I thought Polanco might make more sense, not sure if that was considered from either end.

[drjim]

 

Friedrich is out of options which complicates things.  You'd have to drop someone from the 40-man to add him right now, then you'd have to give him evaluation opportunities in spring training (presumably taking away opportunities from other relief options) before you'd have to make a decision to put him on your opening day roster or waive him again yourself.

 

Just looking at his age and numbers, that seems like too much of a commitment right now.  If he clears waivers and the Rockies outright him, you might get a crack at him as a minor league free agent after the season anyway if you are still interested.

 

I would certainly drop Strong for Friedrich. If Strong clears it gives the Twins yet another arm to evaluate.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I would certainly drop Strong for Friedrich. If Strong clears it gives the Twins yet another arm to evaluate.

I would have claimed Danny Hultzen over both of them earlier this winter.

[tobi0040]

 

That's why I use ERA- at times in these discussions, Fangraphs lets you get those stats for starters and relievers separately.  You can also easily make custom player lists there for comparison.

 

Here's your list at Fangraphs by career relief ERA-:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=rel&lg=all&qual=0&type=1&season=2015&month=0&season1=2005&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=7441,6033,3840,10534,4301,6324,8110,2895,6475,3926&sort=14,a

 

Thanks for the tip.

 

So it is safe to say that each team in our division has at least two non-closers in their pen with a better career ERA+ or ERA- than Fein and Jepsen.

[drjim]

 

I would have claimed Danny Hultzen over both of them earlier this winter.

 

Agree on that. He must have really messed up medicals.

[tobi0040]

 

Agree on that. He must have really messed up medicals.

 

Yeah, 2nd overall pick in 2011.  Still a prospect rated in the top 20 in 2013.  A lefty

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Honest question for spycake and drjim and anyone else: 

 

Setting aside service time and team control, just in terms of ball playing, how would you rank these four: Dickerson, Rosario, Arcia, Kepler? I'm not sure my order, and I don't know if Dickerson or Kepler really separate themselves from Rosario too much, given Rosario's demonstrated defense already.

 

 

...hopefully not getting too far off topic, but I always thought with the surplus of talent on the Twins, the best bet for a reliever might have been via trade rather than free agency, though always certainly helpful to know who the free agents are.

Edited January 29, 2016 by Hosken Bombo Disco

[drjim]

 

Honest question for spycake and drjim and anyone else: 

 

Setting aside service time and team control, just in terms of ball playing, how would you rank these four: Dickerson, Rosario, Arcia, Kepler? I'm not sure my order, and I don't know if Dickerson or Kepler really separate themselves from Rosario too much, given Rosario's demonstrated defense already.

 

 

...hopefully not getting too far off topic, but I always thought with the surplus of talent on the Twins, the best bet for a reliever might have been via trade rather than free agency, though always certainly helpful to know who the free agents are.

 

I think it is hard to separate service time and team control when considering a trade. I would put Arcia clearly 4th, and the other three could probably go in any order. Dickerson, even with inflated home numbers, probably has most bat now, Rosario has the all around game, and Kepler has the upside.

 

I agree with your last point that a trade is probably in order, but I am really hesitant to trade 6 years of control of a good young player for 2 years of a reliever. I don't value relievers that highly. If I'm trading Rosario or Kepler, I want a comparably young solid starter, or a couple of years of a really good starter or maybe a (half) year of an elite starter if that is putting the team over the top (and same for other everyday positions). A reliever doesn't do that, perhaps moreso in the case of McGee because he still has elbow questions.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Agree on that. He must have really messed up medicals.

I'm not sure "messed up medicals" (short of surgery at the moment) is really any worse than messed up performance or peripherals (i.e. Friedrich, Strong, etc.).  Either way, it's a long shot.  In the Twins current situation in particular, I would probably prefer the higher upside.  (You could also probably have a valid case for stashing Hultzen on the 60-day DL to begin the season and getting more time to evaluate him.)

[tobi0040]

This is interesting. It speaks to the race to arms for the pen. Seven teams kept their closer AND signed a closer from another team (or a guy that ended the year closing games). A very different approach than the Twins

 

http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/14667817/thanks-kansas-city-royals-success-bullpen-mania-all-rage-major-league-baseball

[Otto von Ballpark]

This is interesting. It speaks to the race to arms for the pen. Seven teams kept their closer AND signed a closer from another team (or a guy that ended the year closing games). A very different approach than the Twins

 

http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/14667817/thanks-kansas-city-royals-success-bullpen-mania-all-rage-major-league-baseball

Well, the Twins kinda have that with Jepsen and Perkins...

[tobi0040]

Well, the Twins kinda have that with Jepsen and Perkins...

Kind of sort of. We didn't acquire one this off-season. And Jepsen was the closer because the other had an ERA in the 7's down the stretch.

 

The theme is a team like the Yankees who already have Miller and Betances and go out and grab another elite pen arm. I would argue we don't have two guys in that range now and clearly haven't added another

Edited January 30, 2016 by tobi0040