BP: Same Old Twins

[Eris]

 

Parker Hageman, on 22 Dec 2015 - 12:47 PM, said:

 

 

That's a fairly damning statement and I'm not sure that it is accurate. From conversations with multiple people within the organization, there have been sizable changes in the various areas that Trueblood is speaking toward. In terms of player development, Brad Steil and his team have added Trackman to the minor league parks and are using that data to analyze their players which makes the organization front-runners in that regard.

 

How is it that other organizations have become much better at drafting and developing pitchers (the Cardinals, for example) than the Twins.  Yes there has been progress as the Twins have drafted some pitchers that are potential success stories (Berrios, Jay, Duffey).  As a comparison, the Twins stockpiled these pitchers during the recent stretch of 90 loss seasons, while the Cardinals developed their farm system while making it to the playoff most years.  Going back a decade, Glen Perkins is probably only good success story of a pitcher drafted and developed within the Twins organization.  Are we moving in the right direction?  Yes.  But clearly, there is a problem in the Twins ability to draft and develop pitchers.

 

The Twins have gotten the short end of many trades over the last decade.  This would be an indication that our scouting department is weak in comparison to other organizations (or it could also mean that the front office doesn't value the input of the scouting department when making trades).  I've read with envy the haul that the Braves have gotten in some of their recent trades (although I would never have traded Simmons).  Those trades are difference makers for the future of the organization.  They have acquired 3 to 4 players that will make significant impact several years from now.  This is what you expect from a rebuilding team.  Where are the similar Twins trades from the lost era of 2011-2014.  Progress in this area?  Too soon to tell.

 

Free Agent signings?  How many FA have the Twins signed during the past decade that have exceeded expectations over the course of their contract.  Mike Redmond may have been the last one.

 

Who was last short-stop drafted and developed by Twins who became an above average MLB SS?  Greg Gagne was drafted by the Yankees.  So it has been more than 3 decades without an internal success story at one of the most critical defensive positions?  I have read some nice reviews on TD about some of our minor league SS (Gordon, Vielma) and it is too soon to give up on Polanco.  The next several years will tell.

 

I am not really sure if this matters but since 1990, the Twins have won 15 gold glove awards.  During the same period, the St. Louis Cardinals have won 34.  The Atlanta Braves have 29.  The gold glove awards are probably not the best indicator because they voted however it is an indication that the Twins have been lacking, as a team, stand out defensive contributors.

http://minnesota.twins.mlb.com/min/history/awards.jsp

http://stlouis.cardinals.mlb.com/stl/history/awards.jsp

http://mlb.mlb.com/atl/history/awards.jsp

 

My conclusion is, that based on history, the damning statement is quite accurate.  I think that there has been progress in some areas (drafting, pitcher development) during the last 5 years.  In many other areas like trades and FA signings the Twins seems to be trailing the competition.

[TheLeviathan]

For starters, I thought the thread was about the organization.  Some of you change the question when the answer does not suit you.  The theme was changed to Terry Ryan instead of what are the facts associated with the Twins relative success in rebuilding.

 

I was answering this question from Chief.

 

"You seem to be simultaneously claiming the Twins are two years from contention and shouldnt make trades while giving them credit for the impressive speed and completeness of the rebuild , in adjacent paragraphs."

 

The players mentioned shows they organization rebuilt in a reasonable period of time.  Apparently, if the answer satisfies the question, the mode here is to change the question.

Terry Ryan heads the organization, so the subject never changed. As for your answer, it's almost entirely projection, not reality.

 

I wouldn't call a rebuild successful based on what you think may happen in the future. It's based on results, which trended the right way last year, but that's the best we can say now.

[Squirrel]

So we are bottom third of the league team in this regard, not good. Can't imagine anyone is happy with that.

Nationals are a newish team I guess, but they are literally knocking on the door now, as are the Dodgers, Cubs, Pirates and Blue Jays.

Hard to argue the Twins are knocking on the door with the current roster: which puts us down there with cinci, brew crew, Seattle, and Baltimore. Yikes.

Also, none of those teams have had any GMs who have gotten 17 years or anything close to it, Beane was the closest. [bold]But even he was let go.[/bold]

In fact bringing these teams up and their gms etc in some ways makes the Twins keeping Ryan and the whole front office around this long that much more absurd.

Beane wasn't 'let go.' True he's no longer GM. He was promoted.

[Platoon]

Uh? Not sure what this means. I follow the Twins closely and the only thing I've ever heard TR comment on is "i try to improve each position each year however I can."

A laudable goal indeed, but not always a good one. Sometimes, you have to bite the bullet and start over. Maybe if you have unlimited resources you can avoid it, but even then it's not easy. Sports teams in general go in cycles. Refusing to acknowledge that leaves you in between. For a long time. As far as whether Ryan said it or not, he only says things publicly he thinks we want to hear, and things the ticket dept can sell.

[diehardtwinsfan]

For all the talk about the Royals going all in when they acquired Shields in 2013, it was generally considered a bad move and honestly, it didn't work.  They gave up a top 100 prospect for Shields who pitched well for them in 2013 and 2014, only to sign a deal with the Padres in 2015 when they won the WS.

 

I don't have a problem with the Twins going big, but we need some perspective here as well.  There was big debate after 2012 in regards to grabbing Grienke or Sanchez (the two big pitchers on the market).  Whether they would have signed here, who knows, but let's pretend they would have.  Grienke would have pitched well and opted out (per the contract he signed).  Sanchez would have been good in 2013 and to a lesser extent 2014 only to see the wheels fall off in 2015 (Hughes was quite a bit better).  Either way, we would still be in this very situation except that SP depth would be rather lacking, and I highly doubt we win 83 games this year.

 

I have no problems going big, but my complaint against KC at the time was that they did this too early. They were counting on guys to perform who were not sure things (much like a lot of guys in MN this season). Going big makes a lot more sense when you have that gaping hole at position X with a bunch of good to great young talent surrounding it at other positions, not when there are still a lot more question marks (which there are here).  Whether Ryan will do that is certainly a fair criticism. He doesn't strike me as the type to do so, but I also think that we aren't quite ready for said big splash.

[Eris]

 

For all the talk about the Royals going all in when they acquired Shields in 2013, it was generally considered a bad move and honestly, it didn't work.  They gave up a top 100 prospect for Shields who pitched well for them in 2013 and 2014, only to sign a deal with the Padres in 2015 when they won the WS.

 

 

 

But, the Royals also obtained Wade Davis in that trade.  Although it is too soon to pick winners and losers because Tampa traded Meyers to the Padres.  Meyers, after winning Rookie of the Years, has been somewhat of a disappointment.  The Royals look very shrewd by picking up Davis in that trade, without whom they probably would not have won the WS this year.

[Han Joelo]

The OP talked about how the Twins organization as a whole hasn't changed since the Pohlads bought the team.  31 years without a significant outside hire.  I think this is why I don't spend too much time parsing out who did what while TR was on hiatus. I'll bet most of the scouts that worked for the Twins were the same before, during, and after Bill Smiths time at the top.  Including the one who pushed for Sano.  And that one scout and the decision to go with his recommendation, a decision that was probably  "voted on" by everyone at the top of this organization, will probably have as much to do with whether or not the Twins win a WS as anything.

 

GM's in all of sports get a lot of credit and a lot of blame, as they should, but they are only as good as the people they are surround by.  There is probably a good reason why teams stick to a regime.  As noted above, the Giants and Athletics are two examples.  Sabean and Beane have made a lot of good and bad decisions; the Giants have won a couple of championships, in no small part, I would argue, due to getting "lucky" in drafting Madison Bumgarner.  At the moment of truth, had Sabean listened to the scout who was clamoring for Shooter Hunt instead, things might have turned out differently.  Of course, the scout who wanted Mad Bum was the same one who said Liriano would never amount to anything…and yes, I made up those last two sentences.

 

And as well as the Houston "rebuild" is going, can Luhnow be held without fault for drafting Appel twice, once at the "cost" of instead picking Kris Bryant?  Will Epstein even be in Chicago five years from now, when the Cubs MIGHT be saddled with "albatross" contracts to Lester and Heyward?

 

Anyway, Merry Christmas.  Not to let anyone off the hook, but I am thankful the Twins have so much exciting young talent right now, and I am really looking forward to the next few years of baseball.

 

[old nurse]

 

So we are bottom third of the league team in this regard, not good. Can't imagine anyone is happy with that.
Nationals are a newish team I guess, but they are literally knocking on the door now, as are the Dodgers, Cubs, Pirates and Blue Jays.

Hard to argue the Twins are knocking on the door with the current roster: which puts us down there with cinci, brew crew, Seattle, and Baltimore. Yikes.

Also, none of those teams have had any GMs who have gotten 17 years or anything close to it, Beane was the closest. But even he was let go.

In fact bringing these teams up and their gms etc in some ways makes the Twins keeping Ryan and the whole front office around this long that much more absurd.

The Montreal Expos which became the Nationals were founded in 1969, Hardly newish. Beane was promoted to executive vice president, hardly let go. 

Minnesota baseball since 1961 has always been about the bottom line.  It is not going to change any time soon.

[DaveW]

 

The Montreal Expos which became the Nationals were founded in 1969, Hardly newish. Beane was promoted to executive vice president, hardly let go. 

Minnesota baseball since 1961 has always been about the bottom line.  It is not going to change any time soon.

Ok so you are saying the Twins and A's are the only two teams who let their GM's stick around this long, again, this isn't good company at this point. We should aim higher then (the 20th most successful team of the last 25 years)

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

And as well as the Houston "rebuild" is going, can Luhnow be held without fault for drafting Appel twice, once at the "cost" of instead picking Kris Bryant?  

Here's the thing: the Astros just traded Appel. You almost never see the Twins trade a prospect while he still has value. Pinto, Vargas, Meyer, Danny Santana, Arcia, those guys might have had value other organizations a year ago or been part of a bigger trade. Free Arcia!

[h2oface]

 

But, the Royals also obtained Wade Davis in that trade.  Although it is too soon to pick winners and losers because Tampa traded Meyers (sic) to the Padres.  Meyers (sic), after winning Rookie of the Years, has been somewhat of a disappointment.  The Royals look very shrewd by picking up Davis in that trade, without whom they probably would not have won the WS this year.

 

I believe that Wade Davis was forced upon KC to complete the trade. Tampa had converted Wade to the bullpen the year before, and he had good success. Because of his relatively high salary (in KC's eyes, at least, and Tampa's to require they take the salary dump), KC still had hopes he would be successful as a starter, which was a failure and resulted in a Nolasco/Pelfrey year and an ERA in the 5s. Davis became the goldmine from that trade, and Wil Myers has been exposed as overrated at this point. I call it a big win for KC, but it wasn't because of their shrewdness, but a bit of luck. 

[jimmer]

I called the Shields trade a win for KC when it happened and nothing has come close to changing my mind.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

How nice would it be if the Twins DIDN'T give Hughes that pointless extension prior to last year, right now he would be sitting on a 1 year, 7 mil deal which could be moved pretty easily?

 

Hindsight is 20/20, but good lord, what was Ryan thinking?

The Hughes acquisition was the type of smart, cost-effective management we'd been clamoring to see for years.

 

The Hughes extension was the type of Twins move we've groaned about for years. It still has a good chance of working out for everyone involved but it seemed unnecessary.

 

If you like Phil Hughes that much and want to reward him for his 2014 season, give him one, maybe two, additional years. I just don't see the point in that three year extension (though, again, it could easily turn into a really solid extension for the team).

[DaveW]

The extension itself isn't a bad idea, it's that they continue to do this right after guys have career years that are outliers in their overall body of work:

Hughes, Blackburn and Suzuki all come to mind. Don't overpay when you don't need to. Wait until they come back to earth a bit so then you can get some decent value.

[Steve J]

Actually I'm more encouraged by the Twins going forward.  I was convinced the Nolasco signing would have the Twins thumbing their nose at detractors who had long criticized their weird fear of going after significant  players on the free agent market, but then they turned around and signed Santana to a multi year deal.  They also went out and signed Park after Nishi completely flubbed.

 

It shows me that they believe in a new process and aren't just dabbling in new ideas and looking to prove their old ways correct.

[ThejacKmp]

 

Ya, that has been one of my criticisms for sure. Hopefully, they have learned a lesson. Unfortunately, next year's FA class, when supposedly they are on the cusp, looks terrible. Supply and demand indicates next year will not be a good shopping year.....

 

This is actually something I'm excited for.

 

Next year's free agent pitching pool is god awful - Strausburg is the only elite or semi-elite guy and he's been injury prone. If the Twins have the same log jam in the rotation next year (let's say that Berrios and Duffey and Gibson all show they belong and you have Gonsalves/Thorpe types pushing their way up), the Twins could be in the right market at the right time.

 

This of course requires that (A.) Santana and/or Hughes has a good season and (B.) that the Twins front office is willing to trust that they'd be selling high - both of which are of course not given. But we've seen this offseason that teams are always looking for more pitching and if the market is bleak next year, some of the Twins excess veteran starting pitching could look attractive since it wouldn't require the long term commitments of free agency (Santana would have 2 years at $27 million and Hughes 3 years at $39.6 million). 

 

I'm not smart enough to say what type of prospects the Twins might get for those guys but it seems like it could be something nice - if things break our way of course.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

The extension itself isn't a bad idea, it's that they continue to do this right after guys have career years that are outliers in their overall body of work:
Hughes, Blackburn and Suzuki all come to mind. Don't overpay when you don't need to. Wait until they come back to earth a bit so then you can get some decent value.

 

This is largely true, but Hughes also extended at a fairly reasonable price if I remember right.  It's not like he's getting paid 20+M a year. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

This is largely true, but Hughes also extended at a fairly reasonable price if I remember right. It's not like he's getting paid 20+M a year.

$13.5m, if memory serves. So basically, Nolasco/Santana money.

 

Reasonable but still unnecessary, IMO.