BP: Same Old Twins

[DaveW]

 

 

So really Terry Ryan did a better job than Moore since he turned an average catcher into Nathan and Liriano??

You are missing the point entirely.

[DaveW]

 

 

Knoblauch trade.

 

 

 

That was my entire point in the original post. The Twins have a past track record that everyone is judging them on. The issue I have is, is that they have made several adjustments to their operations in the last three years that should effect the decisions/development going forward. 

 

 

Ah yeah I had forgot about that trade, what is hilarious is that the Twins choose to take $3 million in cash from the Yankees instead of getting another player or two as well. Classic Pohlad.

 

You can talk about adjustments to their operations all you want, the reality is: like 95% of the main leadership is still the same, the Twins haven't done any trades/signings etc that actually show they have effected their decisions moving forward. Essentially, talk is cheap.

[Parker Hageman]

Go back and read the thread, none of those were aggressive moves.

 

 

The Shannon Stewart trade was definitely aggressive. The Twins traded a 26-year-old who had put up a .269/.375/.444 batting line and 92 HR over 750 plate appearances for a 29-year-old veteran outfielder.

[TwinsTerritory]

You simply have a different view of what aggressive means.  The Shannon Stewart is virtually identical to the Royals' trade for Zobrist.

 

Dayton Moore hung on to guys like Moustakas and Hosmer while they struggled and preached patience.  I'm guessing you could find a million forums from 2011 that rip Moore to shreds for doing exactly what Terry Ryan is doing right now.

 

I'm all for ripping TR to shreds if Buxton, Sano, Berrios, etc. show they're ready to carry this team to the playoffs and he doesn't do anything in July or next December.

[DaveW]

 

The Shannon Stewart trade was definitely aggressive. The Twins traded a 26-year-old who had put up a .269/.375/.444 batting line and 92 HR over 750 plate appearances for a 29-year-old veteran outfielder.

A career .757 OPS in the minors, and the year the Twins traded him his OPS was .790

 

He had a fluky year the year prior, Kielty was hardly some great player at the time, nor projected to be (and he ended up as nothing special)

 

Aggressive is trading a REAL prospect or someone with upside/above average talent, Kielty was none of the above.

[DaveW]

 

 

You simply have a different view of what aggressive means.  The Shannon Stewart is virtually identical to the Royals' trade for Zobrist.

 

 

I Disagree with that since Zobrist >>>>>> Stewart, but even if I give you the benefit of the doubt on that, show me the trades that match the Shields and Cueto ones?

[TwinsTerritory]

By the way, Dayton Moore also inked these contracts. 

 

Gil Meche 5 yr/$55M (in 2006 when $11M was a lot of money)

Jeremy Guthrie  3 yr/$25M

 

Looks a lot like the Nolasco and Hughes signings to me.

[TwinsTerritory]

 

I Disagree with that since Zobrist >>>>>> Stewart, but even if I give you the benefit of the doubt on that, show me the trades that match the Shields and Cueto ones?

 

Those need to happen in the next year or two.  If they don't, I'll agree that Ryan is different than Dayton Moore and should be replaced.  However, right now, what TR is doing looks very, very similar to what Moore did between 2006 and 2012.

[Parker Hageman]

A career .757 OPS in the minors, and the year the Twins traded him his OPS was .790

 

 

That's a CAREER OPS in the minors, so that is completely misleading. His OPS by season before being promote to Minnesota were as follows:

 

1999 - 916

2000 - 824

2001 - 869

 

Here's a good gauge on what everyone was thinking at the time of the Kielty trade: http://aarongleeman.com/2003/07/16/4632/

 

[DaveW]

 

That's a CAREER OPS in the minors, so that is completely misleading. His OPS by season before being promote to Minnesota were as follows:

 

1999 - 916

2000 - 824

2001 - 869

 

Here's a good gauge on what everyone was thinking at the time of the Kielty trade: http://aarongleeman.com/2003/07/16/4632/

So he was basically saying they traded one OF for another, how is that aggressive again?

 

Again if this is the "most" aggressive TR has been, I think that says all we need to know.

[DaveW]

Also from that link Parker, this is very telling:

 

But also because I now have serious doubts about the decision-making process of the people running the Minnesota Twins and, as a fan of a baseball team, that is about the worst feeling in the world to have.

 

 

[amjgt]

 

It was mostly tongue-in-cheek. The main point is that the two franchises have been in two completely different situations when the Royals made their "game-changing" trades. One of their "game-changing" trades was the Zack Greinke trade to Milwaukee which netted them their up-the-middle players in Escobar and Cain. The Twins made a very similar one which helped build their playoff run in the early 2000s. The Twins, completely by their own doing, had wasted their farm system to the point where they couldn't even pull off a "game changing trade" at this point.

 

Probably a different topic, but it always amazes me when teams that are widely regarded to have completely depleted farm systems still find ways to pull off big trades. (Chicago, Detroit, Boston, NY, Toronto....)

[nicksaviking]

 

By the way, Dayton Moore also inked these contracts. 

 

Gil Meche 5 yr/$55M (in 2006 when $11M was a lot of money)

Jeremy Guthrie  3 yr/$25M

 

Looks a lot like the Nolasco and Hughes signings to me.

 

Let's show this comp to Nolasco and see if we can't get him to retire mid-contract.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I see some points that the author makes, but in all honesty, I'm not convinced he's as knowledgeable about the Twins as he'd like. He's writing to his stereotype. The Twins do change, they simply do so slowly. Snail's pace here can be both good and bad. On one end, you let everyone else make the mistakes. On the other, it takes longer to reap the rewards. It's clear from reading in these forums that the Twins are making big changes to the types of talent they are acquiring (going after more K guys for instance) and even being out in front of the pack a bit on some (all those college relievers in the draft the last few years is starting to look very astute). The managerial change is showing a movement towards some of this as well (though to be fair to Gardy, I don't think Molitor would have improved the W/L record THAT much).

 

Bottom line, they change. They do so slowly. I don't have a problem with Ryan being conservative. We screamed for FA pitching and finally got it. Now that FA pitching is blocking good talent. Most organizations aren't going to flush a multi-million dollar investment down the toilet, and the Twins aren't either. Now we get to see WHY it is that TR is a bit conservative. Those were moves we all wanted, but the results have at best been mixed.

 

Bottom line, he has some good points, but I don't think he really put a lot of research into this piece.

[sane09]

Is it more "aggressive" to sign Zach Greinke, a proven ace?

Or

Is it more "aggressive" to sign a less "proven" SP and gamble that he will become the next Liriano, Johan, Radke, or Pavano.

I think TR is TOO aggressive for a GM, by gambling that chicken-bleep can be made into chicken salad.

If you sign Zach Greinke, that is conservative for a GM, because his future performance is as sure a sure thing as there is out there.

Now, the owners, who are putting out the $$$, are just the opposite, ie. less money=less aggressive.

[Rosterman]

 

I would much rather have a rotation of Gibson, May, Duffey, Berrios and one superior free agent pitcher to Santana/Hughes/Nolasco.

Right now, today, this is a fine fine thought. But not totally sure how it would play out in 2016. Yes, going to the bullpen was a setback for May in terms of innings workload. But is he better than Santana/Hughes at this point. Duffey is still an unknown. I like the thought of him pitching fulltime, but then remember Scott Diamond (yes, a pitcher Duffey is nothing like at the least). 

 

My major point would be that with a healthy Nolasco/Santana/Gibson/Hughes pitching and producing numbers that we assume they can do...across the board adequate with no downs, then Berrios SHOULD be pumped into the fifth spot to take his licks and learn the major leagues coming out of spring training. The Big Four SHOULD give us at least 60 victories in their 128 or so starts. That should happen...if the Twins offense scores an average of four runs per game. That's just it...none of the Big Four starters are pitchers that pitch to 2 runs per nine innings, let alone 3 runs consistently per nine inninings. Nada. Zilch. Berrios ahs that potential. Yes, we want to think Duffey also shows signs of doing so. We want to believe that May can also do so. But we can't quite stomach that Santana or Hughes have the possibility of being an above average predictable pitcher.

 

Are the Twins holding back prospects? Right now, it is only May and Berrios. Last year it was May and Meyer. We still have Stewart, Gonsalves and more in the wings, but not in 2016.

 

Trust that the brains in the front office do know what they are doing and will shed salary (Nolasco) if he doesn't reprove himself, will let Milone walk if he is fa from adequate, will ease May back into the rotation hunt, will entertain trade offers for Gibson if we truly have an offense weakness that are sophs and juniors throw at us. 

 

Last season, we were complaining about the Twins NOT spending money on free agents. They signed Santana and Pelfrey and extended Hughes (and also gave us Robinson and Stauffer). But then we started to complain that who throw good money at multiple problem solvers, let's just go buy that one big guy. 

 

Man, this is a tough business. You try to create a team. You have to monitor prospects. You have to make do or die decisions (Arcia may be another than becomes a mistake...either by keeping him or letting him go). Anyone ever try and juggle? It ain't easy...and you do it day in and day out and still drop balls, no matter how good you may think you are.

 

 

[nicksaviking]

TR has made some pretty great trades in the past; not recently though.

 

A large part of the article was based on the idea that the Twins don't adapt well. Ryan's previous trades of Knoblauch and AJ, (and Dave Hollins and Roberto Kelly) showed that Ryan knew how to value prospects at a time when veteran players were extremely highly valued. The Twins might have been ahead of the curve at that time, but the rest of the league soon adjusted and teams don't give up their top prospects for average to above average MLB veterans any longer.

 

I think the article is a little harsh in that Ryan has adjusted some things. The drafts show that the team does want power arms and power bats (though strangely their free agency moves say the opposite about the power arms), he did finally decide to give a free agent starting pitcher more than 1 year, and they have hired Jack Goin. However all these philosophy changes did occur long after most other clubs adopted them, in fact they may be getting lapped on the power bats/high strikeout theory as it now seems the prevailing thought is high contact/high walks.

 

It just seems that the front offices MO is to play things safe and see if new baseball philosophies first work for other teams, and if they show enough success, then they will adopt them as well. I think the organization needs someone who is willing to lead the pack even if it sometimes leads to mistakes.

[nicksaviking]

 

 

Right now, today, this is a fine fine thought. But not totally sure how it would play out in 2016. Yes, going to the bullpen was a setback for May in terms of innings workload. But is he better than Santana/Hughes at this point. Duffey is still an unknown. I like the thought of him pitching fulltime, but then remember Scott Diamond (yes, a pitcher Duffey is nothing like at the least).

 

Yes, I'd rather have the young guys, even if they struggle. There's a chance that Duffey/May in 2016 aren't as good as Santana/Hughes, but with another year of experience, something that the Twins seem to value above everything else, a 2016 Duffey/May full-time will lead to a better Duffey/May in 2017.

 

Also, last I checked Phil Hughes fastball velocity plummeted to 90 mph. If that doesn't improve he's cooked, his breaking pitches aren't very special.

[TwinsTerritory]

To sum up my point of view:

 

*I'm not Terry Ryan's biggest supporter and I wouldn't have been upset if he left with Gardy last year.

*Most fans have short memories and want immediate results that aren't very realistic.

*I'm willing to give TR another 1-2 years to show that he can surround the young talent with veterans.

*I'd much rather have a little patience like the Twins than have some hyper aggressive GM that treats a franchise like a fantasy team (see AJ Preller and the 2015 Padres)

 

For a fun read, check out this July 2012 article about Dayton Moore.

 

http://www.royalsreview.com/2012/7/18/3166552/dayton-moore-and-historic-levels-of-losing

 

As a tease, here is part of one quote from the article.

 

"the idea of the Royals contending and winning the World Series in 2014 requires quite a bit of squinting and praying that the pitching staff issues will work themselves out by then."

 

[Mike Sixel]

 

Yes, I'd rather have the young guys, even if they struggle. There's a chance that Duffey/May in 2016 isn't as good as Santana/Hughes, but with another year of experience that the Twins seem to value above everything else, a 2016 Duffey/May full-time will lead to a better Duffey/May in 2017.

 

Also, last I checked Phil Hughes fastball velocity plummeted to 90 mph. If that doesn't improve he's cooked, his breaking pitchers aren't very special.

 

that is the key.....if they are really playing for 2017, then yes, the young guys should be in the rotation now. If they are really playing for 2016, well, there is no evidence of that right now, is there?

[Parker Hageman]

So he was basically saying they traded one OF for another, how is that aggressive again?

 

 

Look, since there is absolutely no definition of what a "aggressive" trade is, only something that you have manufactured and are decided what is and what is not, we can stop this conversation.

 

[Parker Hageman]

Also from that link Parker, this is very telling:

 

 

But also because I now have serious doubts about the decision-making process of the people running the Minnesota Twins and, as a fan of a baseball team, that is about the worst feeling in the world to have.

 

 

What is that telling about? That there was inherent mistrust in Ryan's process then and it turns out he and his staff was correct in trading Kielty-for-Stewart? 

 

 

[nicksaviking]

 

*I'd much rather have a little patience like the Twins than have some hyper aggressive GM that treats a franchise like a fantasy team (see AJ Preller and the 2015 Padres)

 

I like Terry Ryan, he seems like a good, honest man and he's done a ton for this organization. I also think Preller was fool hearty.

 

But so what? What's wrong with trying something different if what you've been doing isn't working? Change isn't bad, in fact change is good; it is the key ingredient to innovation. Embrace new things and jump in with two feet, this is baseball not the ocean, you won't drown.

 

I'm a sentimental guy, there's a huge part of me that likes hearing Dan Gladden on the radio even though he's not very good. Listening to him brings back good memories. I liked Gardy and having him around reminds me of the Twins reintroduction to relevance early this century. But sentimentality is the enemy of innovation and we have to give it up to evolve. 

 

 

[amjgt]

 

I see some points that the author makes, but in all honesty, I'm not convinced he's as knowledgeable about the Twins as he'd like. He's writing to his stereotype. 

 

The author's underlying premise, though not explicitly stated, seems to be that change is good. It was almost viewed as a good thing that the Cubs have had 8 GMs in the time that MN has had 2.

 

Stagnation seems to be his point, and I don't disagree that often the Twins seem a bit stagnant in their approach, but I'm not sure how plowing through GMs at the rate of one every 3-4 years is a good approach either. 

[amjgt]

 

Look, since there is absolutely no definition of what a "aggressive" trade is, only something that you have manufactured and are decided what is and what is not, we can stop this conversation.

 

Quoting Supreme Court Justice Potter Stewart.... "I know it when I see it"

[Platoon]

The Twins didn't gain insight into their processes of scouting, player development, player evaluation, or player valuation. They didn't change their philosophy about risk-taking, or about how to time the developmeant........ I can't personally say if they made all or any changes in these areas! But there is a difference between changing scouting, development, evaluation etc, and actually putting a different "style" of player on the field. You can draft and sign all the 5 tools players and hi velocity pitchers you want. They make the owners of the Chatanooga franchise very happy. But until you start bring them in to replace guys who haven't won a thing, replace players signed or extended into contracts based on that old philosophy of "comfortable vets", and traded from excess to balance the roster, all those purported changes are simple PR chaff!

[Major League Ready]

I think some important details of the Royals building a Championship team are being ignored

 

1) They had a very long time to collect high draft picks.
     94.9 Ave losses/season for 12 yrs proceeding their turn around in 2013
     .4345  Win percentage over the 20 years preceding 2013

2) They had (4) 100  loss seasons and (8) 90+ loss seasons in that period

3) They did not sign a single free agent contract anyone here would considered to be a significant expenditure.
4) The FA SPs they did sign were a notch below the SPs the Twins signed.
5) The Twins bought SPs to avoid sucking so bad.  The Royals kept their money and accepted sucking.
6) They have never ponied up for a million dollar plus international player unless I just cant find it. 

 

Perhaps most importantly, when the Royals were at the point of their rebuild where the Twins are now (2011) They did not go sign an Ace or trade for one.  The had one and they traded him away to complete the rebuild process.  Some of you ignore the trade most significant in rebuilding the Royals was not the acquisition of a proven player but the trading away of their best player.

 

Is the take away here that some of you would accept sucking as bad as the Royals did for 20 years to win another WS?  If not, why are they being applauded?

[Dantes929]

 

Not sure why you are comparing Dayton Moore and the Royals to TR and the Twins, the "trust the process" stuff is irrelevalnt since Moore has proven time and time again he will pull the trigger on a game changing trade to help out the team, TR? Nope.

Is it fair to point out that Moore took over the Royals in 2006 and for the next 7 years AVERAGED over 93 losses a year?    I am not so much about defending Ryan as just being fair.    Twins averaged 93 losses for three seasons since Ryan took over and now have a winning one under their belt with a lot of potential going forward.     I don't like everything he did but take a look at predictions for the Royals the last three years.   Sometimes you just get lucky and things come together and players play as well or better than you think they will.    What I don't really care for about the Twins are giving extensions when players are hot and I didn't care for all of their pitching signings.   I believe part of it was the fans demand to spend money but lets not kid ourselves.    Nolasco was a disaster because he has been terrible.   If he pitched great and Hughes had pitched great and we make the playoffs and got hot then Ryan would be the genius.   That is what I was talking about luck.    Players perform and GMs and managers look like wizards.    Kelly and McPhail didn't know an aging Morris would rebound with 18 wins, 23 year old Erickson would get 20 wins and Knoblach would get rookie of the year.     If all three had years like Hicks and Nolasco we would be talking about that 91 team that went .500 if we talked about them at all.

[lukeduke1980]

 

 

I think the article is a little harsh in that Ryan has adjusted some things. The drafts show that the team does want power arms and power bats (though strangely their free agency moves say the opposite about the power arms), 

 

Except for the Rule 5 draft where we lost a power arm to hang onto Ryan O'Rourke

[markos]

It is hard to take this article too seriously considering the his "argument" is basically just asserting over and over again that nothing has changed. He doesn't really offer any evidence to support this argument other than pointing out that the same people are in charge and then contrasts the Twins rebuild with the Cubs and Astros. Which doesn't necessarily follow, right? Maybe I'm mis-reading it, but it certainly seems like a simplified, less eloquent article would basically just be:

 

(Same people in charge) + (they didn't rebuild like the Astros or Cubs) => THEY HAVEN'T CHANGED AT ALL!!! SHAME! SHAME!