BP: Same Old Twins

[Parker Hageman]

Today at Baseball Prospectus, a writer by the name of Matthew Trueblood provided an essay on the state of the Minnesota Twins. It's certainly something we have heard and read around here for quite some time. The organization has banked too hard on the knowledge of Terry Ryan and has been (seemingly) too resistant to change to the modern team construction methods. It's a good read worth your time. 

 

READ: Same Old Twins

 

Big picture, I agree with a lot of this. Again, it's nothing new. There are several threads on this site dedicated to this exact topic. However, there was one addition to BP's post that I felt is disingenuous and misleading. 

 

That's a good thing, generally speaking, but it might not have been the best thing for the Twins. Discussions of rebuilds focus way too much on the accumulation of talent, and not nearly enough on the things that make that accumulation sustainable, actionable, and systematic. The Twins didn't gain insight into their processes of scouting, player development, player evaluation, or player valuation. They didn't change their philosophy about risk-taking, or about how to time the development of key players to sync up with the availability of resources to augment those players and make the most of their best years. Faced with what they perceived as temporary adversity, Ryan and the Pohlad family tried to pull their heads into their shell and let the storm pass.

 

 

That's a fairly damning statement and I'm not sure that it is accurate. From conversations with multiple people within the organization, there have been sizable changes in the various areas that Trueblood is speaking toward. In terms of player development, Brad Steil and his team have added Trackman to the minor league parks and are using that data to analyze their players which makes the organization front-runners in that regard. That's just one example. The Twins have added coaching staff within the system which There are other instances of the coaching staff at the major league level embracing data (albeit late to the game) and a growing analytics department to feed them information. It may be late and slow to change like the writer suggested, but it would seem that the Twins have learned plenty.

 

Overall, Trueblood's post holds water. The signings and the additions are often uninspiring and fit the same mold. They haven't been swift with change. But the sweeping declaration that the team has not learned from the past failure is false. 

 

Your thoughts?

[Mike Sixel]

I don't think we know what is really going on in their heads, or in the minors in terms of changed philosophies or approaches. All we can really know is that last year, 80% of the rotation was to be mediocre free agents, and it looks like it could be that again this year. Until something actually does change, it is hard to say anything has changed, since we can't see the process.

[nicksaviking]

Within the damning statement, I think the key part is that the Twins didn't "time the development of key players to sync up with the availability of resources to augment those players and make the most of their best years."

 

And I agree that this is probably the biggest issue. The Twins could have done the Nolasco/Hughes/Santana type contacts 3-4 year ago when they were terrible, had no prospects to block and needed something to bridge the gap until the prospects were ready. Now they've timed their free agency moves too early and don't have the roster spots and it appears budget to get the kind of free agent upgrades that would be more compatible with the young core.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Within the damning statement, I think the key part is that the Twins didn't "time the development of key players to sync up with the availability of resources to augment those players and make the most of their best years."

 

And I agree that this is probably the biggest issue. The Twins could have done the Nolasco/Hughes/Santana type contacts 3-4 year ago when they were terrible, had no prospects to block and needed something to bridge the gap until the prospects were ready. Now they've timed their free agency moves too early and don't have the roster spots and it appears budget to get the kind of free agent upgrades that would be more compatible with the young core.

 

Ya, that has been one of my criticisms for sure. Hopefully, they have learned a lesson. Unfortunately, next year's FA class, when supposedly they are on the cusp, looks terrible. Supply and demand indicates next year will not be a good shopping year.....

[Parker Hageman]

Until something actually does change, it is hard to say anything has changed, since we can't see the process.

 

 

Obviously, no one outside will ever know or see the process. I'm not comparing the Twins to the Royals but the battle cry for the lowly KC franchise from their GM Dayton Moore was "trust the process". So much so that it was mocked in 2011 and 2012 by Baseball Prospectus. In 2013 the Royals made a deep run. In 2014, a World Series appearance. In 2015, a title.

 

A lot of what the Royals did then had similar process to the Twins are doing now. They stocked their farm system and they frequently acquired curious free agents. We'll see how this plays out but from what I know about the inside of the organization, the process has changed from what they were at when they were losing spectacularly. 

 

 

 

[Mike Sixel]

 

Obviously, no one outside will ever know or see the process. I'm not comparing the Twins to the Royals but the battle cry for the lowly KC franchise from their GM Dayton Moore was "trust the process". So much so that it was mocked in 2011 and 2012 by Baseball Prospectus. In 2013 the Royals made a deep run. In 2014, a World Series appearance. In 2015, a title.

 

A lot of what the Royals did then had similar process to the Twins are doing now. They stocked their farm system and they frequently acquired curious free agents. We'll see how this plays out but from what I know about the inside of the organization, the process has changed from what they were at when they were losing spectacularly. 

 

Has it changed from when they were winning, or will they largely tread water again? That's the question I am interested in seeing the answer to soon.....

[Parker Hageman]

And I agree that this is probably the biggest issue. The Twins could have done the Nolasco/Hughes/Santana type contacts 3-4 year ago when they were terrible, had no prospects to block and needed something to bridge the gap until the prospects were ready. Now they've timed their free agency moves too early and don't have the roster spots and it appears budget to get the kind of free agent upgrades that would be more compatible with the young core.

 

 

I'm not ready to write Santana/Hughes off yet. Ervin Santana's final month was pretty solid. Hughes had the potential to rebound. Nolasco has been a mess, no question. 

 

But the bigger question is -- who are they blocking? If you are thinking it is Berrios, it's not. Room will be cleared in the rotation when they feel Berrios is ready. 

 

[Mike Sixel]

 

I'm not ready to write Santana/Hughes off yet. Ervin Santana's final month was pretty solid. Hughes had the potential to rebound. Nolasco has been a mess, no question. 

 

But the bigger question is -- who are they blocking? If you are thinking it is Berrios, it's not. Room will be cleared in the rotation when they feel Berrios is ready. 

 

does anyone think he's not ready now? I'd say they are blocking May, maybe Milone or Duffey, depending on what choices are made.

[rghrbek]

Thanks for the post Parker.

 

It's a good read and I tend to agree with most of what was said.  After reading this article, and a thread we had a few months ago (about the Twins being one of the luckiest teams in baseball in 2015), I am concerned the FO might think we are better than we are.  Without question there are things to be excited about, but the Twins attempts at staying relevant rather than rebuild over the last few years, have left us with some interesting problems at SP, RP, and 1B/DH.

 

Win Twins!

[DaveW]

Not sure why you are comparing Dayton Moore and the Royals to TR and the Twins, the "trust the process" stuff is irrelevalnt since Moore has proven time and time again he will pull the trigger on a game changing trade to help out the team, TR? Nope.

[DaveW]

 

 

I'm not ready to write Santana/Hughes off yet. Ervin Santana's final month was pretty solid. Hughes had the potential to rebound. Nolasco has been a mess, no question. 

 

But the bigger question is -- who are they blocking? If you are thinking it is Berrios, it's not. Room will be cleared in the rotation when they feel Berrios is ready. 

Santana and Hughes aren't the issue IMO, Santana is a solid starter for us moving forward and I really like Hughes to bounce back this year.

Nolasco and Milone are the ones who shouldn't be blocking guys like May, Duffey, Berrios etc

[nicksaviking]

 

I'm not ready to write Santana/Hughes off yet. Ervin Santana's final month was pretty solid. Hughes had the potential to rebound. Nolasco has been a mess, no question. 

 

But the bigger question is -- who are they blocking? If you are thinking it is Berrios, it's not. Room will be cleared in the rotation when they feel Berrios is ready. 

 

I would much rather have a rotation of Gibson, May, Duffey, Berrios and one superior free agent pitcher to Santana/Hughes/Nolasco.

[Parker Hageman]

Not sure why you are comparing Dayton Moore and the Royals to TR and the Twins, the "trust the process" stuff is irrelevalnt since Moore has proven time and time again he will pull the trigger on a game changing trade to help out the team, TR? Nope.

 

 

Yeah, that AJ Pierzynski trade sucked.

 

But here's the thing: The Royals have had depth in their system for quite some time to make those types of trades. The Twins are just in the midst of stockpiling their minor league system. The Twins have had premium, high-end talent as of late but they have not had the same depth as the Royals. 

[amjgt]

 

Yeah, that AJ Pierzynski trade sucked.

 

 

 

There was obviously a lot of luck involved in that as well as good scouting, but the FO's hand was a bit forced on trading AJ since Mauer was coming. 

 

I don't think anyone at the time considered trading AJ for prospects a "game changing trade." It was viewed as trading a veteran who was blocking a prospect. In the end we happened to get tremendous value, though.

[DaveW]

 

Yeah, that AJ Pierzynski trade sucked.

 

 

Oh give me a break, that wasn't even close to an aggressive move TR did to put them over the top. They traded AJ away to make room for Mauer, it just happened to work out to be one of the most lopsided trades ever. Also, wasn't that 12 years ago? Doesn't that say something about his body of work that people have to keep going back to 12 years ago for the last significant move he made that worked? (Oh well remember the AJ trade?) What have you done for me these last 10 years TR?

 

But anyways, since you bring it up, that trade almost cancels out TR letting hall of famer David Ortiz walk for nothing. So, now we are back at square one again.

 

 

[DaveW]

 

 

There was obviously a lot of luck involved in that as well as good scouting, but the FO's hand was a bit forced on trading AJ since Mauer was coming. 

 

I don't think anyone at the time considered trading AJ for prospects a "game changing trade." It was viewed as trading a veteran who was blocking a prospect. In the end we happened to get tremendous value, though

Great trade no doubt, the Twins got a couple guys with question marks (Nathan+Liriano) but both had great "stuff" and big "upside" and it paid off in spades for them! What is odd to me is, you think after this success the Twins would continue to target these types of players in the FA market and trade market, but TR has mostly done the opposite in his trades and acquisitions.

The only time the Twins seemed to take this approach again was during Bill Smith's short lived era, which ended up bringing us Miguel Sano, and a Santana trade that wouldn't look as bad if we would have had just a little bit of patience with Carlos Gomez who is now a premiere CF. The Delmon Young trade was another case of going after a high upside guy with some "warts", it didn't work out of course, but at least they tried to be aggressive in getting a game changer.

[Kwak]

 

Within the damning statement, I think the key part is that the Twins didn't "time the development of key players to sync up with the availability of resources to augment those players and make the most of their best years."

 

And I agree that this is probably the biggest issue. The Twins could have done the Nolasco/Hughes/Santana type contacts 3-4 year ago when they were terrible, had no prospects to block and needed something to bridge the gap until the prospects were ready. Now they've timed their free agency moves too early and don't have the roster spots and it appears budget to get the kind of free agent upgrades that would be more compatible with the young core.

Ah, but one of the reasons that caused the replacement of Smith as GM was his proposal to spend $20+MM on free-agent pitching [because the cupboard was bare].  Ryan pointed-out that he built winning teams with a (much) smaller payroll.  Ryan returned as GM....

[Winston Smith]

 

Yeah, that AJ Pierzynski trade sucked.

 

But here's the thing: The Royals have had depth in their system for quite some time to make those types of trades. The Twins are just in the midst of stockpiling their minor league system. The Twins have had premium, high-end talent as of late but they have not had the same depth as the Royals. 

Really pulling out the AJ trade from 13 years ago?

[Parker Hageman]

The Delmon Young trade was another case of going after a high upside guy with some "warts", it didn't work out of course, but at least they tried to be aggressive in getting a game changer.

 

 

Francisco Liriano was the definition of a "high upside guy with some 'warts'".

[nytwinsfan]

 

I'm not ready to write Santana/Hughes off yet. Ervin Santana's final month was pretty solid. Hughes had the potential to rebound. Nolasco has been a mess, no question. 

 

But the bigger question is -- who are they blocking? If you are thinking it is Berrios, it's not. Room will be cleared in the rotation when they feel Berrios is ready. 

 

Trevor May. But to be fair, it is more Nolasco/Milone who are blocking May, not Hughes/Santana.

[DaveW]

 

Francisco Liriano was the definition of a "high upside guy with some 'warts'".

Yeah, I basically said that in the exact same post.

 

 

e Twins got a couple guys with question marks (Nathan+Liriano) but both had great "stuff" and big "upside" and it paid off in spades for them! What is odd to me is, you think after this success the Twins would continue to target these types of players in the FA market and trade market, but TR has mostly done the opposite in his trades and acquisitions.

 

[TwinsTerritory]

 

Not sure why you are comparing Dayton Moore and the Royals to TR and the Twins, the "trust the process" stuff is irrelevalnt since Moore has proven time and time again he will pull the trigger on a game changing trade to help out the team, TR? Nope.

Time and again???

 

http://www.royalsauthority.com/dayton-moore-history/

 

Check out the link and count up the meaningful trades that Dayton Moore made from 2006 to December 9, 2012 (while the Royals were stockpiling talent).  He did basically the exact same thing TR has done since coming out of retirement.  The question is, now that the Twins are close, will TR follow Moore's lead and make the moves necessary to put the Twins over the top?

[Parker Hageman]

Really pulling out the AJ trade from 13 years ago?

 

 

It was mostly tongue-in-cheek. The main point is that the two franchises have been in two completely different situations when the Royals made their "game-changing" trades. One of their "game-changing" trades was the Zack Greinke trade to Milwaukee which netted them their up-the-middle players in Escobar and Cain. The Twins made a very similar one which helped build their playoff run in the early 2000s. The Twins, completely by their own doing, had wasted their farm system to the point where they couldn't even pull off a "game changing trade" at this point.

 

 

 

[DaveW]

 

 The question is, now that the Twins are close, will TR follow Moore's lead and make the moves necessary to put the Twins over the top?

Doubtful, he hasn't done anything yet, and didn't do anything like Moore's moves the first time the Twins were winning those division titles.

[DaveW]

 

 

It was mostly tongue-in-cheek. The main point is that the two franchises have been in two completely different situations when the Royals made their "game-changing" trades. One of their "game-changing" trades was the Zack Greinke trade to Milwaukee which netted them their up-the-middle players in Escobar and Cain. The Twins made a very similar one which helped build their playoff run in the early 2000s. The Twins, completely by their own doing, had wasted their farm system to the point where they couldn't even pull off a "game changing trade" at this point.

The Twins were in the exact same situation in the early 2000's as the Royals are now, and they didn't make any aggressive moves. Also comparing the Grienke trade to the AJ trade is laughable, one was an ace, another was a league average Catcher.

[TwinsTerritory]

 

Doubtful, he hasn't done anything yet, and didn't do anything like Moore's moves the first time the Twins were winning those division titles.

I think we have some selective memory going on.  The guys listed below were acquired via trade and played a pretty big role a decade ago.

 

Joe Nathan 

Francisco Liriano

Shannon Stewart

[Parker Hageman]

Also comparing the Grienke trade to the AJ trade is laughable, one was an ace, another was a league average Catcher.

 

 

Knoblauch trade.

 

The Twins were in the exact same situation in the early 2000's as the Royals are now, and they didn't make any aggressive moves.

 

 

That was my entire point in the original post. The Twins have a past track record that everyone is judging them on. The issue I have is, is that they have made several adjustments to their operations in the last three years that should effect the decisions/development going forward. 

 

[TwinsTerritory]

 

The Twins were in the exact same situation in the early 2000's as the Royals are now, and they didn't make any aggressive moves. Also comparing the Grienke trade to the AJ trade is laughable, one was an ace, another was a league average Catcher.

So really Terry Ryan did a better job than Moore since he turned an average catcher into Nathan and Liriano??

[Mike Sixel]

 

Ah, but one of the reasons that caused the replacement of Smith as GM was his proposal to spend $20+MM on free-agent pitching [because the cupboard was bare].  Ryan pointed-out that he built winning teams with a (much) smaller payroll.  Ryan returned as GM....

 

good point, they clearly decided to follow the strategy of mostly sucking, even though they didn't admit it at the time.

[DaveW]

 

I think we have some selective memory going on.  The guys listed below were acquired via trade and played a pretty big role a decade ago.

 

Joe Nathan 

Francisco Liriano

Shannon Stewart

Go back and read the thread, none of those were aggressive moves.