BP: Same Old Twins

[DaveW]

 

What is that telling about?

Because here we are 12 years later and we (most fans) still have serious doubts about the people running the ship.

 

 

[h2oface]

 

We screamed for FA pitching and finally got it. Now that FA pitching is blocking good talent. Most organizations aren't going to flush a multi-million dollar investment down the toilet, and the Twins aren't either. Now we get to see WHY it is that TR is a bit conservative. Those were moves we all wanted, but the results have at best been mixed.

 

 

I wince to be included in  "we all wanted".  I am not part of the we that ever wants mediocre free agent pitching. Terry Ryan's selections, while in charge of a budget he claimed had no restrictions, to me, are despicable. I never liked Nolasco (always does and did worse than projected), Hughes (I contend, even with a total outlier in 2014, will continue to be the Phil Hughes the Yankees let go, and will once again start the season horribly just like is his past history, and was foolishly extended after his first year), and Santana's roided lost half season and partially torn UCL that I am convinced is finally going to tear totally after all these 7 or 8 or so years..... and don't even get me started on Pelfrey! But I read all the apologists' posts. And then there is the bullpen trash and Milone too, I guess. No guts, no glory. I would always rather go for gusto, even if I drown, rather than tread uninteresting waters. And May goes to the pen, and young starters are blocked for .500 pitchers. That is how you build a .500 team, and not how a team that can go deep in the playoffs is built.

 

One Price or Greinke or Scherzer, etc, would be better than all 4 of the dreaded innings eaters (and cheaper per season) - at least in my we group, which maybe is just me. 

[DaveW]

 

Look, since there is absolutely no definition of what a "aggressive" trade is, only something that you have manufactured and are decided what is and what is not, we can stop this conversation.

Come on man.

There is a huge difference between the Cueto trade and between the Shannon Stewart trade. Saying "well aggressive can't be defined" is just a cheap cop out IMO. If you asked people to name the 100 most aggressive trades of the last 20 years, nobody would put the Stewart one in that.

[DaveW]

How nice would it be if the Twins DIDN'T give Hughes that pointless extension prior to last year, right now he would be sitting on a 1 year, 7 mil deal which could be moved pretty easily?

 

Hindsight is 20/20, but good lord, what was Ryan thinking?

 

Don't even get me started on Pelfrey and his dumb contract that essentially blocked May, Milone and Duffey

[James Richter]

Bear in mind that the economics of the game have changed a ton since TR first took the reigns in the mid-90's. No revenue sharing of MLBAM profits, no luxury tax. It was much easier for draft picks to hold out for higher bonuses (under current rules, for example, Jason Varitek would have been a Twin). Teams with big markets and newer stadiums had a much bigger edge. Given the failures they had with 1st-rounders early on, it's maybe not surprising that TR's regime decided to go after guys who were more of a sure thing in terms of signability and talent floor.

 

Now that the rules have changed, though, there are signs that the approach has changed with it. Whether recent drafts will ultimately bear fruit isn't certain, but there's been a clear change in strategy. To this front office, the Hughes, Nolasco and Santana deals were probably way outside the comfort zone. That's a bit of progress. But to whatever degree the old guard manages to change its process, it won't be as much or as fast as bringing in new people, that's for sure.

[amjgt]

 

I wince to be included in  "we all wanted".  I am not part of the we that ever wants mediocre free agent pitching. Terry Ryan's selections, while in charge of a budget he claimed had no restrictions, to me, are despicable. I never liked Nolasco (always does and did worse than projected), Hughes (I contend, even with a total outlier in 2014, will continue to be the Phil Hughes the Yankees let go, and will once again start the season horribly just like is his past history, and was foolishly extended after his first year), and Santana's roided lost half season and partially torn UCL that I am convinced is finally going to tear totally after all these 7 or 8 or so years..... 

 

One Price or Greinke or Scherzer, etc, would be better than all 4 of the dreaded innings eaters (and cheaper per season) - at least in my we group, which maybe is just me. 

 

I agree with you conclusion that I'd rather have one ace than three #3 starters, but I do think that Ryan deserves at least a little credit.....

 

Hughes - That initial contract was tremendous. Great value in 2014. Not great in 2015. 2016 he could either continue to be an inexpensive quality pitcher, trade bait at the deadline, or a possible candidate for a qualifying offer, which might yield the Twins some draft pick compensation. But Ryan had to go and screw up his initial great deal with that "one year too early" extension. He always seems to do that and I think you can directly tie that to our small market mentality. We're so scared of having to dole out some mega contract if the player's success continues that we dole out large extensions after modest success. Seriously, when was the last time that worked out for us?

 

Nolasco - Total failure

 

Santana - Can't really blame Ryan for the drug suspension and once Santana got some innings under his belt he pitched like the guy we paid a bunch of money to. Criticizing the deal because your gut tells you that Santana is due to tear his UCL doesn't hold water.

[Boom Boom]

Is the take away here that some of you would accept sucking as bad as the Royals did for 20 years to win another WS? If not, why are they being applauded?

The Royals weren't in a rebuild for 30 years. There were many rebuilding cycles that stalled. Yes, they had a lot of high draft picks, but the Royals top prospects in 1995 have nothing to do with their success now.

[Thrylos]

 

I think we have some selective memory going on.  The guys listed below were acquired via trade and played a pretty big role a decade ago.

 

Joe Nathan 

Francisco Liriano

Shannon Stewart

 

Very True.  If it were not for them the Twins wouldn't have won more than one post-season series and multiple World Championships... 

 

 

 

 

[h2oface]

 

I agree with you conclusion that I'd rather have one ace than three #3 starters, but I do think that Ryan deserves at least a little credit.....

 

Hughes - That initial contract was tremendous. Great value in 2014. Not great in 2015. 2016 he could either continue to be an inexpensive quality pitcher, trade bait at the deadline, or a possible candidate for a qualifying offer, which might yield the Twins some draft pick compensation. But Ryan had to go and screw up his initial great deal with that "one year too early" extension. He always seems to do that and I think you can directly tie that to our small market mentality. We're so scared of having to dole out some mega contract if the player's success continues that we dole out large extensions after modest success. Seriously, when was the last time that worked out for us?

 

Nolasco - Total failure

 

Santana - Can't really blame Ryan for the drug suspension and once Santana got some innings under his belt he pitched like the guy we paid a bunch of money to. Criticizing the deal because your gut tells you that Santana is due to tear his UCL doesn't hold water.

 

Hey........ you left out Pelfrey!

 

Hughes' initial contract was fine..... and the extension was the Ryan classic. Agreed. Do you think Ryan would have extended him if he had waited until this off season? Ryan over reacts after one good year. Not the signs of a smart GM to me.

 

My not liking the Santana signing from the get go holds plenty of water to me, as does all of my feelings about all of the signings, and I don't really care if it doesn't to you. We all have the right to decide what we feel and like. Santana is a career 4.16 ERA/4.26 FIP pitcher. And getting older. No one is blaming Ryan for his PED suspension. It is likely Santana would have been pretty close to his career norm even if he had pitched all year, and that is a .500 pitcher, on a just over .500 team. Treading water. One of those on the staff is OK. Maybe even two, if you also have signed an ace, and a number two. 4 of them.... yuk. When Santana's UCL does finally rip fully while under contract with the Twins, and more season(s) are lost.... remember I told you so. Just as with Wainwright from the Cards, it is only a matter of time, and Santana is stretching it, figuratively and literally. 

 

 

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

TR has made some pretty great trades in the past; not recently though.

 

 

2 months of Francisco Liriano for some guy named Eduardo Escobar and another piece whom we've all forgotten is already looking like a steal.  Sure, it's not AJ bad, but a good deal.

 

I suspect Revere for May/Worley will be another one too.

 

He's still making decent trades. He hasn't quite had the blockbusters he's had in the past, though as others have pointed out, teams value said prospects a lot more and won't let the obvious ones go.

[jimmer]

 

How nice would it be if the Twins DIDN'T give Hughes that pointless extension prior to last year, right now he would be sitting on a 1 year, 7 mil deal which could be moved pretty easily?

 

Hindsight is 20/20, but good lord, what was Ryan thinking?

 

Don't even get me started on Pelfrey and his dumb contract that essentially blocked May, Milone and Duffey

No hindsight needed.  Plenty of fans said the Hughes extension was bad when it was done (as well as Suzuki's).

[jimmer]

This article seems right on point.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Hey........ you left out Pelfrey!

 

Hughes' initial contract was fine..... and the extension was the Ryan classic. Agreed. Do you think Ryan would have extended him if he had waited until this off season? Ryan over reacts after one good year. Not the signs of a smart GM to me.

 

My not liking the Santana signing from the get go holds plenty of water to me, as does all of my feelings about all of the signings, and I don't really care if it doesn't to you. We all have the right to decide what we feel and like. Santana is a career 4.16 ERA/4.26 FIP pitcher. And getting older. No one is blaming Ryan for his PED suspension. It is likely Santana would have been pretty close to his career norm even if he had pitched all year, and that is a .500 pitcher, on a just over .500 team. Treading water. One of those on the staff is OK. Maybe even two, if you also have signed an ace, and a number two. 4 of them.... yuk. When Santana's UCL does finally rip fully while under contract with the Twins, and more season(s) are lost.... remember I told you so. Just as with Wainwright from the Cards, it is only a matter of time, and Santana is stretching it, figuratively and literally. 

 

You may be an outlier, I honestly don't know, but there were plenty of people asking for Santana both last year and the year prior... Probably more so the year prior when we acquired Hughes and Nolasco (now that I think of it, I'd be willing to bet people used his name in the same category as 'ace'), but I think there's a bit of revisionist history going on if pretend we suddenly didn't want him.

[Thrylos]

 

2 months of Francisco Liriano for some guy named Eduardo Escobar and another piece whom we've all forgotten is already looking like a steal.  Sure, it's not AJ bad, but a good deal.

 

I suspect Revere for May/Worley will be another one too.

 

He's still making decent trades. He hasn't quite had the blockbusters he's had in the past, though as others have pointed out, teams value said prospects a lot more and won't let the obvious ones go.

 

Here is the problem: 

Liriano's past 3 seasons:

 

35-25, 3.26 ERA, 3.23 FIP, 1.241 WHIP, 9.6 K/9 and 3.8 K/BB

 

Give me a starter who pitched better for the Twins the last 3 seasons.  Or, give me any starter not named Santana who put 3 better seasons in a row for the Twins the last 15 years.

 

Ryan did not get that it was not Liriano who needed to go, but it was Gardy and Andy.  Finally someone pulled that plug but a few seasons too late.

 

it is not the 2 months of Liriano, it is that he did not replace him.

[jimmer]

 

Doubtful, he hasn't done anything yet, and didn't do anything like Moore's moves the first time the Twins were winning those division titles.

this

[Han Joelo]

This article felt like it was written by someone who was snubbed for a job with the Twins.  "I didn't want to work for those fuddy-duddy stick-in-the-muds anyway."  

 

This debate is getting old; on the one side are people that will always despise the ownership and management of the Twins, some to the point of claiming anything good that has ever happened was either lucky or was forced upon Ryan.  The rest of us are more pragmatic or nuanced in our beliefs.  Better the devil you know...

 

I've stated before, I was a long-time fan of the Miami Dolphins, and "suffered" for many years watching Don Shula and Dan Marino come up short in the draft and on the field.  But what has happened since the team was sold (now twice) has been embarrassing.  Chasing GM's and coaches and big ticket free agent fixes, all for a Super Bowl drought that now exceeded the one Shula had presided over when he was kicked to the curb.

 

I'm all for innovation, but if the Twins were sold and a GM like Preller came in and did what he did I'd be much more upset than I am over the fact TR had to overpay to get the "Big Four" to come and pitch for the Twins.

[jimmer]

 

2 months of Francisco Liriano for some guy named Eduardo Escobar and another piece whom we've all forgotten is already looking like a steal.  Sure, it's not AJ bad, but a good deal.

 

I suspect Revere for May/Worley will be another one too.

 

He's still making decent trades. He hasn't quite had the blockbusters he's had in the past, though as others have pointed out, teams value said prospects a lot more and won't let the obvious ones go.

He's ruining the Revere/May trade by wasting May in the pen.

[h2oface]

 

2 months of Francisco Liriano for some guy named Eduardo Escobar and another piece whom we've all forgotten is already looking like a steal.  Sure, it's not AJ bad, but a good deal.

 

I suspect Revere for May/Worley will be another one too.

 

He's still making decent trades. He hasn't quite had the blockbusters he's had in the past, though as others have pointed out, teams value said prospects a lot more and won't let the obvious ones go.

 

Maybe I am missing something here... so don't let me put words in your mouth if I am. I don't mean to.

 

I would much rather have Liriano and what he has been paid and how he has performed since the trade than Escobar and his line and the money paid. That is how I have to look at the decision. Could Liriano have progressed to his last 3 years performance with Gardenhire and Anderson messing with him?  Probably not. But just comparing the two's performance and cost since the trade, I see it as a bigh Liriano win, and not Escobar.

[DaveW]

 

Here is the problem: 

Liriano's past 3 seasons:

 

35-25, 3.26 ERA, 3.23 FIP, 1.241 WHIP, 9.6 K/9 and 3.8 K/BB

 

Give me a starter who pitched better for the Twins the last 3 seasons.  Or, give me any starter not named Santana who put 3 better seasons in a row for the Twins the last 15 years.

 

Ryan did not get that it was not Liriano who needed to go, but it was Gardy and Andy.  Finally someone pulled that plug but a few seasons too late.

 

it is not the 2 months of Liriano, it is that he did not replace him.

Even more damning is that they didn't even make him an offer to resign as a FA, when the asking price was much less than what we paid Pelfrey.

 

Classic mediocrity over upside

 

We saw it last off-season with Hunter instead of Cruz, and we have seen it this off-season thus far with guys like Murphy and some nobodies to fill out the bullpen.

[DaveW]

 

 

Maybe I am missing something here... so don't let me put words in your mouth if I am. I don't mean to.

 

I would much rather have Liriano and what he has been paid and how he has performed since the trade than Escobar and his line and the money paid. That is how I have to look at the decision. Could Liriano have progressed to his last 3 years performance with Gardenhire and Anderson messing with him?  Probably not. But just comparing the two's performance and cost since the trade, I see it as a bigh Liriano win, and not Escobar.

Yup, agreed. Letting Liriano go, while not as damaging as letting David Ortiz and his 500+ HR walk for nothing, is almost just as bad/stupid. Called it then, called it when he signed with Pittsburgh, called it now.

[h2oface]

 

You may be an outlier, I honestly don't know, but there were plenty of people asking for Santana both last year and the year prior... Probably more so the year prior when we acquired Hughes and Nolasco (now that I think of it, I'd be willing to bet people used his name in the same category as 'ace'), but I think there's a bit of revisionist history going on if pretend we suddenly didn't want him.

 

I guess what I am trying to say is.... I am an individual, and not part of "we" in general. The "we" you speak of, were definitely a pack, and liked it together and cooperatively, as I remember. I was talking about my concern for his UCL, and the mediocre career line, even then. I really hope I end up wrong, but last years .400 ERA/.416 FIP are right in line with his career line, and I have little hope it will get better. I do realize a lot of fans will put up with mediocre and average, and call it a good move.

[Rosterman]

 

Here is the problem: 

Liriano's past 3 seasons:

 

35-25, 3.26 ERA, 3.23 FIP, 1.241 WHIP, 9.6 K/9 and 3.8 K/BB

 

Give me a starter who pitched better for the Twins the last 3 seasons.  Or, give me any starter not named Santana who put 3 better seasons in a row for the Twins the last 15 years.

 

Ryan did not get that it was not Liriano who needed to go, but it was Gardy and Andy.  Finally someone pulled that plug but a few seasons too late.

 

it is not the 2 months of Liriano, it is that he did not replace him.

Liriano WAS NOT going to stay with the Twins. We got Hernandez (late of the St. Paul Saints) and Escobar. Francisco did little or nothing with the White Sox. He was a free agent. The Twins did have the ability to sign him (and probably had a better chance than if they had just let him walk at season's end). Many of us thought Pittsburgh overpaid for Liriano. 

 

But the reality is that there was some bad feelings between the Twins and Liriano at this point.

 

We can also complain that the Twins allowed Hunter to walk, not to mention Nathan and Cuddyer (both of whom some parties thought would want to stay with the Twins for x-amount of dollars). With the Twins current state of the affairs at the time, both parties could've been spun for some prospect rather than zilch.

 

We can argue that Ryan dealt depth once (but maybe not twice) to shore up the pitching staff...getting Worley to step into the immediate rotation (which he badly terribly did) and two youngsters who increased our minor league looksee at the moment, but shows you how much stock to put into minor league pitching stars, especially when someone like Duffey comes out of nowhere and shine (maybe briefly).

 

We want to make the playoffs. We want to win the World Series. That is something EVERY TEAM wishes to do and the Twins have had better success in many of those areas than probably half of the teams in baseball, although some of the lowlies like Kansas City and Pittsburgh and even Houston are showing signs of long term dominance in the pennant drives.

 

 

 

[Major League Ready]

 

Because here we are 12 years later and we (most fans) still have serious doubts about the people running the ship.

Until the last few years I think it was fair to say the Twins we a model small market franchise.  Its also fair to say the were slow to adapt but if we are fair they are adapting.  They drafted power arms and just signed their 2nd $4M international player in the past 5 years.  They kept Mauer to the tune of $184M instead of letting him go as they surely would have done in the past.  They also just signed an international player we all hope is the guy to bat behinds Sano for a few years. 

[h2oface]

 

This article felt like it was written by someone who was snubbed for a job with the Twins.  "I didn't want to work for those fuddy-duddy stick-in-the-muds anyway."  

 

This debate is getting old; on the one side are people that will always despise the ownership and management of the Twins, some to the point of claiming anything good that has ever happened was either lucky or was forced upon Ryan.  The rest of us are more pragmatic or nuanced in our beliefs.  (big selfie pat on the back).  Better the devil you know...

 

 

I'm all for innovation, but if the Twins were sold and a GM like Preller came in and did what he did I'd be much more upset than I am over the fact TR had to overpay to get the "Big Four" to come and pitch for the Twins.

 

Quite an assumption that the author feels like a scorned job applicant. Perhaps not an assumption. We all have the right to our own feelings. Should I feel real stupid now for not being part of the right club, and lacking nuance? I think that the characterization of the one side - "on the one side are people that will always despise the ownership and management of the Twins, some to the point of claiming anything good that has ever happened was either lucky or was forced upon Ryan." - is lacking in nuance.  There is quite a bit of diversity among those that want a change in management. They might also realize that ownership is different and not necessarily needing to be classified with management here - especially general management - and ........ "always" might be lacking in nuance.

 

How about using an example like Luhnow (Houston) or Epstein(Cubs), instead of easy prey like Preller. Now how does it read?

 

[Major League Ready]

 

How nice would it be if the Twins DIDN'T give Hughes that pointless extension prior to last year, right now he would be sitting on a 1 year, 7 mil deal which could be moved pretty easily?

 

Hindsight is 20/20, but good lord, what was Ryan thinking?

 

Don't even get me started on Pelfrey and his dumb contract that essentially blocked May, Milone and Duffey

Pelfrey was not such a big deal but I am with you on the Hughes extension.  I hated it at the time and I fail to see why it could not wait another year to make that decision.  Had they not done the extension, you put him in the pen and May in the rotation. 

[Major League Ready]

 

The Royals weren't in a rebuild for 30 years. There were many rebuilding cycles that stalled. Yes, they had a lot of high draft picks, but the Royals top prospects in 1995 have nothing to do with their success now. I have no idea how you

 For starters I pointed out that they had a horrendous record for 20 years.  How 30 years crept in to this I have no idea and there was absolutely no assertion they were in a rebuild process for 30 years or 20 years for that matter.  There were several points made here you ignored them all and came up with something out of the blue.

 

1. The Twins have rebuilt in a MUCH shorter period of time.

2. The Royals used much less expensive free agents but everyone ignores that fact.

3. They did not trade their prospects for an Ace they traded their Ace for prospects.

4. They have never signed an international player like Sano or Javier.  I am not even sure if they have signed one equivalent to Kepler's 800K.

[h2oface]

 

 For starters I pointed out that they had a horrendous record for 20 years.  How 30 years crept in to this I have no idea and there was absolutely no assertion they were in a rebuild process for 30 years or 20 years for that matter.  There were several points made here you ignored them all and came up with something out of the blue.

 

1. The Twins have rebuilt in a MUCH shorter period of time.

2. The Royals used much less expensive free agents but everyone ignores that fact.

3. They did not trade their prospects for an Ace they traded their Ace for prospects.

4. They have never signed an international player like Sano or Javier.  I am not even sure if they have signed one equivalent to Kepler's 800K.

 

Hey.. just ask Ryan..... he honestly says that the Twins were never in a "rebuild", so I don't know how it could have been a shorter period of time.  

 

And didn't the Royals consider Shields an ace?  I think they did, and Wil Myers was definitely a prospect that was traded to get him, along with Jake Odorizzi, Patrick Leonard and Mike Montgomery. (They got the Nathan/Liriano luck with Wade and how he transitioned to the bullpen monster)

 

Perhaps you are only considering the Greinke trade?

[jimmer]

Wade Davis was converted to the bullpen BEFORE KC got him.  KC decided to put him in the rotation for reasons passing understanding and he failed, but the Rays are the ones who rightly determined he was best utilized as a reliever.

 

 

[h2oface]

 

Wade Davis was converted to the bullpen BEFORE KC got him.  KC decided to put him in the rotation for reasons passing understanding and he failed, but the Rays are the ones who rightly determined he was best utilized as a reliever.

 

Correct. I was really referring to Wade's growth as his transition in that role. Interesting that the Royals still tried to have him be a starter that first year in KC in 2013.....  I was making the comparison that Nathan was not a closer previous to coming to the Twins, and it seems that both KC and the Twins got some fortunate luck from both of these deals.

[Han Joelo]

 

Quite an assumption that the author feels like a scorned job applicant. Perhaps not an assumption. We all have the right to our own feelings. Should I feel real stupid now for not being part of the right club, and lacking nuance? I think that the characterization of the one side - "on the one side are people that will always despise the ownership and management of the Twins, some to the point of claiming anything good that has ever happened was either lucky or was forced upon Ryan." - is lacking in nuance.  There is quite a bit of diversity of those that want a change in management, and that they might also realize that ownership is different and not necessarily classified with management, and ........ "always" might be lacking in nuance.

 

How about using an example like Luhnow (Houston) or Epstein(Cubs), instead of easy prey like Preller. Now how does it read?

First of all, well rebutted.  I wasn't being nuanced, apparently, but rather just unclear, when I insinuated the author felt like a scorned job applicant.  As written, actually, I stated the article itself felt like a scorned job applicant.  What I really meant to say was that I felt like the article was written by a scorned job applicant.

 

I succumbed in the middle to a kind of sweeping generalization of which I generally despise.  Thank you for kindly pointing that out.  If I had of written it better, I would have written something that better reflects the idea that a poster like yourself, in favor of regime change, is in fact speaking from a well thought out and dare I say it "nuanced" position.

 

As for Epstein and Luhnow, I certainly give them credit for their two championships in the last 22 years combined.  They've made a lot of good decisions, as well as a couple of clunkers.  I just don't see them as all that vastly different from Terry Ryan.