Pelfrey

[ScrapTheNickname]

 

Two years? Wow. congrats to him and his agents.

Boras. Singular. One-of-a-kind. Broke the mold. Boras.

[tobi0040]

 

According to Fangraphs, Pelfrey was a bargin for the Twins, worth $26 million but cost only$15 million.  Last year he was worth $15.9 million, so either Boras is terrible or Fangraphs valuation are.

 

The problem is contract values are not linear, for a few reasons. 

 

First, nobody makes any money for 6-7 years.  So 2013 Trevor Plouffe versus 2016 Trevor Plouffe may put up similar WAR, but the 2013 version makes $500k and the 2016 will make $7M.

 

Second,really good players skew the numbers You see 1-2 WAR players make 7-10m at times. But Kershaw does not make $80M a year (8 WAR @ 10M per)

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Because he only has two years left on his deal and he has been a work horse since 2008 (with the exception of 2015).  Doesn't mean I like him.  

That says nothing about how much teams would be willing to pay him right now.

 

Edwin Jackson only had two years left on his deal last winter and an even better "workhorse" record than Nolasco.

 

Do you think Nolasco would get anything close to 2/25 if he was a free agent right now?  That's essentially what a team would be doing if they assumed his full contract in trade.

 

With two years of poor health and poor performance, and a low-upside career prior to that, Nolasco wouldn't even sniff Pelfrey's 2/16.

 

At best, he'd be getting Bud Norris's 1 year, $2.5 mil deal.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Maybe the right deal hasn't come along.  The point is though that he is tradeable.  Contrary to some of the blogs here stating he is "GOING NOWHERE"

It's true that "the right deal hasn't come along", but the right deal is currently one where the Twins don't cover most of the remaining contract.

 

Low-upside health and performance reclamation projects, 2 seasons removed from any success, don't cost 2/25.

[Linus]

What this really points out is how desperate teams are for even marginally competent starting pitching. I'm glad the Twins have a "logjam" of guys that have been competent starters.

[DocBauer]

So are we starting a pool for the first time Pelfrey has a 3 or 4 game stretch of competent starts where someone complains we shouldn't have let him walk?

[DocBauer]

 

This would (hopefully) be a case where after most of the FA pitchers sign, a team that missed out would be desperate enough to take Nolasco off the Twins' hands......

I agree with this.

 

Healthy...which he has been pretty much every year except since the Twins signed him...he has been a solid, dependable, though unspectacular SP. If the Twins didn't ask for a lot back, and if the Twins paid for part of the salary, I absolutely think someone would take him off the Twins hands to deepen a rotation. There are teams out there, like the Padres who he has previously been linked to, that appear to be short, especially if they can pull of a Shields trade.

[Thrylos]

 

yeah, now we have an idea what Milone is worth (and I might add he's been a better pitcher too)

 

Milone has not been a better pitcher than Pelfrey last season.  Pelfrey was a 2.0 fWAR pitcher and Milone was an 1.5 fWAR pitcher.   So Milone is worth about $5.35 M a season.  Wonder what a team would trade for him

[tobi0040]

I guess what I come back to, if the Twins could trade Nolasco and haven't, then they have concluded internally that if they had 2/25 to spend to improve the club, they could not find anything better than Ricky Nolasco. 

 

I find that a pretty tough sell. 

[James]

 

So are we starting a pool for the first time Pelfrey has a 3 or 4 game stretch of competent starts where someone complains we shouldn't have let him walk?

I'd put my money on that happening around May.  

[Rosterman]

Wonder if he even looked at the Twins offer of two years and $10 million..... good for Mike. He got two years to try to get his stuff back at a decent dollar figure. Looking forwardto having those five games against him with our new improved batting order.

 

[puckstopper1]

$16M over two years for a right-handed starting pitcher who in his career is 61-81 with a 4.52 ERA (which includes an ERA of 4.94 in the AL).  WOW!  Just WOW!

[laloesch]

 

That says nothing about how much teams would be willing to pay him right now.

 

Edwin Jackson only had two years left on his deal last winter and an even better "workhorse" record than Nolasco.

 

Do you think Nolasco would get anything close to 2/25 if he was a free agent right now?  That's essentially what a team would be doing if they assumed his full contract in trade.

 

With two years of poor health and poor performance, and a low-upside career prior to that, Nolasco wouldn't even sniff Pelfrey's 2/16.

 

At best, he'd be getting Bud Norris's 1 year, $2.5 mil deal.

 

First of all re-read my post.    I said "he is tradeable."    That's all. Kapish?

 

I didn't say the Twins would in all likelihood have to eat most of his remaining salary, I didn't say anything about low upside, poor performance, or what teams are willing to pay for him in comparison to Edwin Jackson whom you are implying is a much "better workhorse." Stop putting words in my mouth. 

[formerly33]

Would Big Pelf have gotten this good of a deal if he didn't have all our secrets to tell?

[laloesch]

 

It's true that "the right deal hasn't come along", but the right deal is currently one where the Twins don't cover most of the remaining contract.

 

Low-upside health and performance reclamation projects, 2 seasons removed from any success, don't cost 2/25.

 

Oh really?  Maybe you should tell Terry Ran and the Twins that.  After all they signed Pelfrey and Nolasco in the first place.

[Hrbowski]

 

Would Big Pelf have gotten this good of a deal if he didn't have all our secrets to tell?

Obviously, he doesn't know any secrets in the first place.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

First of all re-read my post.    I said "he is tradeable."    That's all. Kapish?

 

I didn't say the Twins would in all likelihood have to eat most of his remaining salary, I didn't say anything about low upside, poor performance, or what teams are willing to pay for him in comparison to Edwin Jackson whom you are implying is a much "better workhorse." Stop putting words in my mouth. 

I didn't say you said those things.  Those are my points, in response to your statement, that I believe demonstrate Nolasco is not tradeable right now by any useful definition of the term.

[SwainZag]

 

Milone has not been a better pitcher than Pelfrey last season.  Pelfrey was a 2.0 fWAR pitcher and Milone was an 1.5 fWAR pitcher.   So Milone is worth about $5.35 M a season.  Wonder what a team would trade for him

 

Pelfrey also go 30 starts to Millone's 23.  fWAR probably not the best to compare to starting pitchers with different amount of playing time.

[KGB]

 

The problem is contract values are not linear, for a few reasons. 

 

First, nobody makes any money for 6-7 years.  So 2013 Trevor Plouffe versus 2016 Trevor Plouffe may put up similar WAR, but the 2013 version makes $500k and the 2016 will make $7M.

 

Second,really good players skew the numbers You see 1-2 WAR players make 7-10m at times. But Kershaw does not make $80M a year (8 WAR @ 10M per)

Agree, and I think the valuation is often misused.  But fangraph's calculation is based on the value of players during FA.  So it is a valid comparison for this case.

 

I also agree that no way would I want to pay $8 million per WAR in a FA market, but that's the market.  It's more of a measure of how overvalued buying WAR in the FA market really is and why it's not real good investment for teams. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Oh really?  Maybe you should tell Terry Ran and the Twins that.  After all they signed Pelfrey and Nolasco in the first place.

Huh?  Here is my post you responded to again: "Low-upside health and performance reclamation projects, 2 seasons removed from any success, don't cost 2/25."

 

What does that have to do with TR signing Nolasco in the first place?  He wasn't a reclamation project then.  But he most certainly is right now.

 

And the Twins gave contracts of 1/4 and 2/11 to Pelfrey, both notably less than 2/25.  (And Pelf was arguably less of a reclamation project than present-day Nolasco both times, coming off of a fairly standard TJ surgery, and then coming off a promising finish to his 2013 season.)

[laloesch]

 

I didn't say you said those things.  Those are my points, in response to your statement, that I believe demonstrate Nolasco is not tradeable right now by any useful definition of the term.

 

Well we disagree then.  Your not changing my mind.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Well we disagree then.  Your not changing my mind.

I will ask, if you believe Nolasco is tradeable, if you can point to any pitchers traded under similar circumstances (contract, performance, health)?  That would be the evidence necessary to support your opinion, no?

 

Note that the subject of this thread (Pelfrey) is not a good comparable, due to better recent health, performance, and a lesser contract.  (Not to mention the fact that he's never actually been traded. )

[Platoon]

Great, now the Tigers are going to know all our secrets.

Maybe he will teach them Pitch To Contact!

[Platoon]

I did not see the news article, was anything said that he is to be a starter? I am assuming, since he likely would not sign as a reliever, which is his niche!

[h2oface]

 

According to Fangraphs, Pelfrey was a bargin for the Twins, worth $26 million but cost only$15 million.  Last year he was worth $15.9 million, so either Boras is terrible or Fangraphs valuation are.

 

That one is easy. If Fangraphs valuation says he was worth 15.9 million - then they are most certainly terrible.

 

It will be nice seeing Pelfrey pitch batting practice to the Twins instead of giving up all those hits to the other teams.

[gunnarthor]

We hate on Pelfrey a bit but he wasn't horrible here.  He was worth 2 WAR both last year and in 2013.  His FIP (if you like it and people seem to) was 4.00 both years.  The contract will cover his age 32-33 seasons.  Obviously, 2014 was a lost year for him but he's probably a good bet for 30 starts or so each year.  8m/year doesn't seem too outrageous for that.  Good for him.

[Highabove]

 He will be lights out after the Tigers move him to the bullpen. 

[h2oface]

 

That's all. Kapish?

 

What team did Kapish play on? 

[ashbury]

First of all re-read my post.    I said "he is tradeable."    That's all. Kapish?

 

What team did Kapish play on? 

The Sicily Tysons, as I recall.

[bird]

 

Well we disagree then.  Your not changing my mind.

 

 

This is pretty clear to all of us.