Sickles top 20 Twins prospects

[dgwills]

 

Right, I don't mind if people write off Harrison, the odds of him making it are looking dimmer each year, but he has the same consistent 12% walk rate each year which is very rare for a guy who's not hitting for power or average.  This guy looks like he knows how to work an at bat, which seems to be one of the rarest talents for minor leaguers, particularly Twins minor leagures.  He is giving pitchers no reason to pitch around him, yet he's still getting them to put him on base regularly.  There's still hope.

 

Also, he has never repeated a level once yet, he's been a one-level-a-year guy in his four years in the system.

I'm pretty close to writing him off. The problem with projecting that is that major league pitchers can throw strikes. He's going to have to have a good year or he's a non-prospect. 

[Shane Wahl]

Anyway, Palacios!

[nicksaviking]

 

Like I said, I actually liked the picks that year but even going back to Gutierrez(Technically he was late 1st round but it still applies), Shooter Hunt, Bashore, Luke Bard, Etc. Those were terrible picks at the time and continue to look terrible. Those times were when they went with the "safe" picks and it didn't really work out like that. Granted very few of those guys actually make it so I guess it's not really a big deal

 

Gutierrez, Hunt and Bashore weren't safe picks.  The hope on those guys were that they'd be the mid-high 90s fireballers this team had never been able to find.  I have no problem gambling on strikeout pitchers as long as this team is lacking them.

 

It was the Wimmers, Michaels and Gibson 1st round picks that were supposed to be fairly safe.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Gibson was a top 10 guy that fell due to injury.  That's not a safe pick by any means.  He was an upside guy.  I think we forget that given his heavy sinker, but he got quite a few Ks in college and really upped that this season.  I wouldn't be shocked at all if he takes another step forward in 2016.

[SarasotaBill]

Berios was a 1st sup pick.

[SarasotaBill]

Correction - Berrios

[markos]

 

Gibson was a top 10 guy that fell due to injury.  That's not a safe pick by any means.  He was an upside guy.  I think we forget that given his heavy sinker, but he got quite a few Ks in college and really upped that this season.  I wouldn't be shocked at all if he takes another step forward in 2016.

Yep. BA had him ranked #4 overall and 2nd best pitcher behind Strasburg two weeks before the draft. 11.2 K/9, 6.1 K/BB. But a week before the draft he was shut down due to a stress fracture in his arm.

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/draft/09draft.html

http://www.baseballamerica.com/online/majors/organization-reports/minnesota-twins/2009/268349.html

[kab21]

Harrison is one of those really frustrating prospects and he has the exact profile needed for corner OF.  He walks a lot and has great raw power.  I have no idea how so much raw power only equals 5 HR's.  He is the kind of prospect that completely breaks out one year though. 

 

In a way he is a little like Plouffe who just decided to start hitting HR's when he became a MLB'er.  Obviously he would have more value at 3B but he could easily be a Cuddyer/Kubel type of bat in the OF.

[BoomBoom]

By Mike Rosenbaum / MLB.com | November 7th, 2015 + 0 COMMENTS

SCOTTSDALE, Ariz. -- Adam Brett Walker II has a knack for getting big hits.

The Twins' No. 10 prospect went 2-for-3 with a double and four RBIs on Friday night as Scottsdale defeated Salt River, 5-4, to move into first place in the Arizona Fall League East division.

"It's a short season, so every game really counts," Walker said after the Scorpions' (13-7) victory. "Just try to take it one day at a time, but we got a win tonight and we'll try to keep it going."

After drawing a walk in the second inning, Walker hit an RBI single in his second plate appearance against Rafters starter Yoan Lopez, taking a 2-2 pitch back up the middle to cut Salt River's lead to 3-2. In the bottom of the sixth, he delivered what turned out to be the game-winning hit as he laced a bases-clearing double into the left-center-field gap.

"I wanted to make sure I got a pitch up in the zone -- a good pitch to hit," he said, reflecting on the at-bat. "The bases were loaded and he wasn't going to try to pitch around me, so I made sure I didn't swing at his pitch and got something I could handle. Luckily, I split a gap with it.

"I take pride in driving in runs," he continued. "I definitely buckle down when I have guys [on base]. I try to get a hit every time, but I really take pride in trying to get guys in."

Walker has tallied multiple hits in five of his last eight games for the Scorpions, batting .387 with three home runs, two doubles, six runs scored and 12 RBIs in that span. Overall, he's hitting .306 with a 1.047 OPS and four home runs through 13 games in the Fall League.

Selected by Minnesota in the third round of the 2012 Draft out of Jacksonville University, Walker spent the entire 2015 season at Double-A Chattanooga, where he batted .239/.309/.498 in 133 games. The 24-year-old outfielder paced the Southern League with 31 home runs -- the third-highest total in the Minor Leagues -- 106 RBIs and 250 total bases. Walker's season-long success also helped the Lookouts capture their first Southern League title since 1988.

Now, he's building on his impressive regular season in the Fall League. "It's a good opportunity to come out here and show everybody what I can do," said the 6-foot-4, 225-pound outfielder. "I'm just trying to have quality at-bats and play the game hard."

 

Salt River and Scottsdale will square off again on Monday afternoon at Scottsdale Stadium.

 

 

Good spring board league according to Mayo.  I sure hope Walker gets a chance to take that leap this year.  

[jorgenswest]

The Twins have two guys that are almost certain to be regulars, another 5 that project to contribute several years in the majors and a bunch of guys that should help in a role or from the bench. Arguing whether a projected bench guy should be 14 or 16 or 23 seems pointless.

 

Instead it seems like it would be better to compare these guys to where they were a year ago and two years ago. How are the Twins doing in developing their assets?

[Thrylos]

 

Harrison is one of those really frustrating prospects and he has the exact profile needed for corner OF.  He walks a lot and has great raw power.  I have no idea how so much raw power only equals 5 HR's.  He is the kind of prospect that completely breaks out one year though. 

 

In a way he is a little like Plouffe who just decided to start hitting HR's when he became a MLB'er.  Obviously he would have more value at 3B but he could easily be a Cuddyer/Kubel type of bat in the OF.

 

 

This is totally correct.  It happens some day.  At age 22 (like Harrison was last season) Dozier had zero HRs.  Dozier broke through at age 26.  (Actually his change of approach happened the previous season 2012 when at AAA)   Plouffe was a different story.  9 HRs at age 22.  What Harrison does better than either of these 2 guys is walk.  He is walking at a 14% clip, which is pretty nice.    He will get there, just needs some time

 

[gunnarthor]

 

Instead it seems like it would be better to compare these guys to where they were a year ago and two years ago. How are the Twins doing in developing their assets?

Fair question - I think you can say guys like Duffey, Berrios, Kepler, Polanco are exceeding expectations from a few years ago (by varying degrees).  Meyer, Stewart, Burdi saw their value decrease (by varying degrees).  I think Sano and Buxton are more or less what everyone thought.  Same with Walker, actually.  May and Rosario are probably around what people thought they'd be (capable ML starters) but may have under/overachieved one way or the other, in the eye of the beholder. 

I think it's generally hard to decide with A ball guys either way (although I did that with Stewart).  I think Gordon is a prospect with a lot of helium and Gonsalves is exceeding expectations of a 4th round guy but it's probably a bit early to call that.

[Bob Sacamento]

 

How awesome would it be to hit on a couple of those relievers next year. Burdi-Meyer-Jepsen-Jones-Perkins-May? Yes pls.

Pretty sure the FO's MO in taking those power arm relievers in the draft (and trading for) was building that pitching staff from the back forward ala KC Royals and what many clubs are trying to do now.  If you can have 3 shutdown relievers it makes the starting pitcher just have to manage the game thru 6 innings and less reliant on that ACE going deep into the game. 

[Bob Sacamento]

 

I think Gordon is a prospect with a lot of helium and Gonsalves is exceeding expectations of a 4th round guy but it's probably a bit early to call that.

Gordon has helium because he is a plus defender at SS and he's going to stick there.  As long as his bat continues to look even average at best, you have your SS for the next 7 years.  

 

As for Gonsalves, he was a late first - early second round talent who dropped in the draft due to missing time in HS season because of a school suspension.  The suspension stems from him protecting a friend/teammate about their possible marijuana usage.  So honestly, his talent is looking just right and not exceeding expectations.

[jsteve96]

i actually really like this list even though its so different. Palacios probably does deserve to be up there after that year. Eades also with a very good year. The only question I have is why does Thorpe drop so much when he's still a teenager and has already past through low A ball with a 10/9 K rate. other than that its very interesting

[jokin]

 

Anyway, Palacios!

 

Both Palacios and Wade were very nice surprises.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

i actually really like this list even though its so different. Palacios probably does deserve to be up there after that year. Eades also with a very good year. The only question I have is why does Thorpe drop so much when he's still a teenager and has already past through low A ball with a 10/9 K rate. other than that its very interesting

 

John does discount for injury.  He was pretty high on Thorpe prior to the TJS.  If he comes back strong, I have no doubt Thorpe goes right back up. 

[jsteve96]

 

John does discount for injury.  He was pretty high on Thorpe prior to the TJS.  If he comes back strong, I have no doubt Thorpe goes right back up. 

so thorpe has TJ he drops 5-6 spots on top 20.. Buxton gets hurt 2 seasons in a row- automatic number 1.. it was one surgery. he's the same on my list as he was last year at this time.

[jokin]

 

so thorpe has TJ he drops 5-6 spots on top 20.. Buxton gets hurt 2 seasons in a row- automatic number 1.. it was one surgery. he's the same on my list as he was last year at this time.

 

TJ isn't just any surgery. It definitely put Thorpe back in a little limbo until he gets back out on the mound.

[jsteve96]

 

TJ isn't just any surgery. It definitely put Thorpe back in a little limbo until he gets back out on the mound.

1/3 of MLB pitching has had TJ surgery according to bleacher report. And its rare to have a second. i like that he got it now rather than when he's in AA/AAA.. I think he comes back just as good. 

[maxisagod]

 

1/3 of MLB pitching has had TJ surgery according to bleacher report. And its rare to have a second. i like that he got it now rather than when he's in AA/AAA.. I think he comes back just as good. 

 

I hope he does too. Even though there a good chance he comes back, it's not automatic. And what his fastball or off speed stuff will look like afterwards is unknown. I guess a few spots drop is fine, he can always bonce back and regain his status on prospect lists next year.  

[CwK]

I expected to see Engelb on here. Appeared to show a little bat, but many know more than me.

[TRex]

 

I expected to see Engelb on here. Appeared to show a little bat, but many know more than me.

I agree. But the uptick in hitting came after a brutal April and May  leaving his overall OPS at .627 (OPS Apr-May >.500; Jun-end OPS was .729). Traditionally, John has been more results orientated; whereas BA is more tools orientated. I still hold out hope for the BA ranking.

[sane]

 

TJ isn't just any surgery.

From USA Today:

"The success rate of Tommy John surgery has reached such a high point, with 80% of the pitchers who undergo the procedure returning to their previous level of competition for at least a game, it's easy to forget that still means one of every five cases fail"

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

1/3 of MLB pitching has had TJ surgery according to bleacher report. And its rare to have a second. i like that he got it now rather than when he's in AA/AAA.. I think he comes back just as good. 

 

A large percentage never come back from it either for what it's worth.  You are welcome to ask John.  He is pretty good about answering questions on his lists. 

[TRex]

 

From USA Today:

"The success rate of Tommy John surgery has reached such a high point, with 80% of the pitchers who undergo the procedure returning to their previous level of competition for at least a game, it's easy to forget that still means one of every five cases fail"

I agree with what you are saying, but the original comment was comparing Buxton's injuries with Thorpe's TJ surgery, and how that affects their placement on the Twins prospect list. I think the lost development time is as much the contributing factor as the severity of the injury (although all the injuries Buxton had are 100% recoverable... if that is a word). In addition, the caveat you list above ('previous level of competition') is not insignificant in that my goal for Thorpe is NOT to get back to Low-A ball!

 

I think another compounding factor is what it takes for position players to get to MLB vs. pitchers (especially starting pitchers). Even with Buxton's injury-plagued 2014, he made it to the MLB in 2015, and (although injured some more) got in >450 PA.

 

For Thorpe to reach MLB as a starter after TJ surgery is more difficult. Not only did he miss all of 2015, but he will have to start all over on the 'arm strength' chart, meaning he will likely get <80 innings in 2016, 120 innings in 2017, and not be available in September of 2018 (ala Berrios this year).

 

Now, Thorpe is still a great prospect and worth waiting for (he will still be just 23 on opening day in 2019), but IMHO TJ surgery has affected his development much more that Buxton's hand/wrist/concussion injuries.

[sane]

I agree with what you are saying, but the original comment was comparing Buxton's injuries with Thorpe's TJ surgery, and how that affects their placement on the Twins prospect list.

 

For Thorpe to reach MLB as a starter after TJ surgery is more difficult. Not only did he miss all of 2015, but he will have to start all over on the 'arm strength' chart, meaning he will likely get <80 innings in 2016, 120 innings in 2017, and not be available in September of 2018 (ala Berrios this year).

 

Now, Thorpe is still a great prospect and worth waiting for (he will still be just 23 on opening day in 2019), but IMHO TJ surgery has affected his development much more that Buxton's hand/wrist/concussion injuries.

My bad! I should have clarified that I agree with you, citing the phrase:

"it's easy to forget that still means one of every five cases fail"