Sickles top 20 Twins prospects

[diehardtwinsfan]

Figured I'd post a link here.  He's a Twins fan and does them first when he puts his list together.  Still a top 10 system even after graduating a few.

 

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2015/11/5/9677606/minnesota-twins-top-20-prospects-for-2016

 

 

[nicksaviking]

Interesting list, he has Walker higher than I'd guess most national guys and obviously Palcios is no longer an unknown to those outside of Twins fandom.

 

Personally, I'm just waiting for Lewis Thorpe to regain his steam.  I don't know his timeline for throwing this year but my prediction is that he'll be at the top of the list this time next year if Buxton, Berrios and Kepler graduate.

[Seth Stohs]

This was fun to look at last night. I noticed that his 1-8 are in the same order as mine, and 9 and 10 are flip-flopped. So, I'm definitely good with his top 10. 

[Shane Wahl]

Top 11 are excellent, he drops an interesting bomb at 12 (I like it!) and things get weird after that.

[Seth Stohs]

The best thing about Sickels' posts about the Twins are his comments/responses to questions. He knows his stuff and has good contacts. 

[diehardtwinsfan]

yeah Seth, if you ever get him on here to do a Q&A, that would be nice.  A bit surprised how low he is on Thorpe given how high he was last year, though I know he takes injury into account.   Pretty good list. 

[sane]

"16) Travis Harrison, OF, Grade C+: Age 23, frustrating bat, looks like he should hit, good size, good strike zone judgment, but hit just five homers in Double-A. Doesn’t have speed or defense to play regularly unless the power comes".

 

OK. got it..

Frustrating bat, no power, no speed, no defense.

A genuine zero-tool prospect.

But you rate him #16.

Is this the coach's kid?

[Shane Wahl]

Harrison, Eades (!?!?), Zach Jones, Cederoth, Darnell, and Wimmers (!?).

 

I like Jones and have a soft spot of hope for Wimmers, but it is just odd to see these names where they are.

[Shane Wahl]

 

 

"16) Travis Harrison, OF, Grade C+: Age 23, frustrating bat, looks like he should hit, good size, good strike zone judgment, but hit just five homers in Double-A. Doesn’t have speed or defense to play regularly unless the power comes".

 

OK. got it..

Frustrating bat, no power, no speed, no defense.

A genuine zero-tool prospect.

But you rate him #16.

Is this the coach's kid?

 

Sticking at third base was his one chance. I have been calling for trading him for two years or more now. He has zero future in this organization.

[Shane Wahl]

All of that said, the claim here is that the Twins *still* have 12 above C+ prospects in the system. That is fantastic.

 

(it was 14 last year, 11 for 2014, 13 for 2013, 13 for 2012, and 10 for 2011)

[Kwak]

One must take these lists with a block of salt.  Example:  what is the gap between prospect #n and #n+1 ?  It could be a lot more than meets  a simple eye test suggested by simply one more integer.  Ergo, Take a sequence of numbers (for prospects 1-10):  are the relative values  87, 85, 82, 80, 77, 75, 74, 72, 68, 67, or,

91, 85, 82, 77, 71, 64, 56, 48, 45, 39 ?  All are top ten prospects, but "Whoa! Nellie! " A huge difference in value.  The letter grades attached (A, B, C)  aren't as useful as one might think.  This could explain why Travis Harrison is #16, yet could be miles behind the top three.

[clutterheart]

 

Sticking at third base was his one chance. I have been calling for trading him for two years or more now. He has zero future in this organization.

 

 

Scouts like his tools and measurables, sometimes it takes a while, sometimes it never clicks.  But the fact he is on this list despite his poor performance tells you scouts still like what the see.

[Willihammer]

How awesome would it be to hit on a couple of those relievers next year. Burdi-Meyer-Jepsen-Jones-Perkins-May? Yes pls.

[Shane Wahl]

 

The best thing about Sickels' posts about the Twins are his comments/responses to questions. He knows his stuff and has good contacts. 

 

Yeah that is where some of the real information comes out. Great stuff.

[clutterheart]

 

One must take these lists with a block of salt.  Example:  what is the gap between prospect #n and #n+1 ?  It could be a lot more than meets  a simple eye test suggested by simply one more integer.  Ergo, Take a sequence of numbers (for prospects 1-10):  are the relative values  87, 85, 82, 80, 77, 75, 74, 72, 68, 67, or,

91, 85, 82, 77, 71, 64, 56, 48, 45, 39 ?  All are top ten prospects, but "Whoa! Nellie! " A huge difference in value.  The letter grades attached (A, B, C)  aren't as useful as one might think.  This could explain why Travis Harrison is #16, yet could be miles behind the top three.

 

If you want full reports and details behind the rankings, BUY THE BOOK!

 

Its a great resource if you play Fantasy Baseball and worth the money as an X-Mas Gift.

[Seth Stohs]

 

Scouts like his tools and measurables, sometimes it takes a while, sometimes it never clicks.  But the fact he is on this list despite his poor performance tells you scouts still like what the see.

 

 I really like Travis. Tremendous person. Very smart. Works really hard. 

 

I had him in the upper-20s, but I agree with a lot of what John says. I want him to do well. It hasn't happened yet, but I would be far from giving up on him at this point. I do feel he should stay in Chattanooga for 2016 rather than keep moving up. I think the numbers could improve greatly and give him a better shot. He's young. There's time.

[markos]

 

Scouts like his tools and measurables, sometimes it takes a while, sometimes it never clicks.  But the fact he is on this list despite his poor performance tells you scouts still like what the see.

I think Harrison is ranked a little high, but not outrageously so. He has been an above-average hitter at every level despite being young for his age at each stop and not hitting for much power. He takes walks and doesn't strike out too much. By all accounts he is a big, strong kid, so there is the potential for future power growth. And it certainly isn't unheard of for a player to get have a power spike in his mid-to-late twenties. Right now he doesn't profile like a corner-outfielder, but it wouldn't be shocking if he started hitting 20 or more homers a season at age 26 or 27. 

[Han Joelo]

Like all lists I read, I focus on the relative location of the players over the actual number.  Debates about whether #8 is a better prospect than #9 aren't that interesting to me, but viewing the lists in a big picture idea helps me to get a better idea of what I'm really looking at.

 

One that sticks out on this list is Eades at #18.  Does that mean he is that much higher on him than Seth, or that much lower on guys like Romero and Jorge?  Probably a bit of both, I guess.  The comments section is the real gold.

[gunnarthor]

Nice list.  He's been a big fan of Berrios' for a long time and it's fun to see Berrios beating his expectations.  Obviously, having Buxton and Berrios at the top still make this a great system but next years system strength will have to rely on a few guys having break out seasons. In the comments, he mentions Blankenhorn and Cabbage as two guys who could move up. 

[Thrylos]

 

Sticking at third base was his one chance. I have been calling for trading him for two years or more now. He has zero future in this organization.

 

Famous last words  

 

He just needs one breakout season; before this season, he was head in head with Kepler in my book.  Kepler had his.

[Thrylos]

 

 

"16) Travis Harrison, OF, Grade C+: Age 23, frustrating bat, looks like he should hit, good size, good strike zone judgment, but hit just five homers in Double-A. Doesn’t have speed or defense to play regularly unless the power comes".

 

OK. got it..

Frustrating bat, no power, no speed, no defense.

A genuine zero-tool prospect.

But you rate him #16.

Is this the coach's kid?

 

No.  A former first round draft pick.

 

Still he is better than Stuart Turner (same age, same level) who was rated at #14... 

 

[TNLooky2015]

Article on Twins prospects in AFL with video - Good read on competition in league and some other top prospects in baseball.

 

http://m.twins.mlb.com/news/article/156629878/fall-stars-gear-up-to-represent-their-team

 

[twinsfanstreif]

 

No.  A former first round draft pick.

 

Still he is better than Stuart Turner (same age, same level) who was rated at #14... 

Turner has positional value and I believe he's a pretty good catcher at that. Harrison doesn't really fit anywhere defensively. I've always rooted for Harrison he just hasn't really put it together like I thought he would. I was estatic about him and Boyd in that draft and neither of them panned out.

 

on a side note that just reminds me that we've done pretty good with 1st round picks but absolutely abysmal with supplimental 1st rounders, it's basically Berrios and a whole bunch of nothin

[nicksaviking]

 

Scouts like his tools and measurables, sometimes it takes a while, sometimes it never clicks.  But the fact he is on this list despite his poor performance tells you scouts still like what the see.

 

Right, I don't mind if people write off Harrison, the odds of him making it are looking dimmer each year, but he has the same consistent 12% walk rate each year which is very rare for a guy who's not hitting for power or average.  This guy looks like he knows how to work an at bat, which seems to be one of the rarest talents for minor leaguers, particularly Twins minor leagures.  He is giving pitchers no reason to pitch around him, yet he's still getting them to put him on base regularly.  There's still hope.

 

Also, he has never repeated a level once yet, he's been a one-level-a-year guy in his four years in the system.

[nicksaviking]

 

on a side note that just reminds me that we've done pretty good with 1st round picks but absolutely abysmal with supplimental 1st rounders, it's basically Berrios and a whole bunch of nothin

 

I'm not going to defend that too much, but they haven't had a sup pick in four years.  I also don't really have too many criticisms of the picks because when they regularly had those picks, the Twins often went conservative with the 1st pick and then went for upside with the supplemental pick, they were all basically a HS kid or a hard throwing college guy with some control concerns.  I'm a big fan of drafting upside over safety.

 

Lookey here, I guess I did defend that too much.

[twinsfanstreif]

 

Article on Twins prospects in AFL with video - Good read on competition in league and some other top prospects in baseball.

 

http://m.twins.mlb.com/news/article/156629878/fall-stars-gear-up-to-represent-their-team

It's interesting to hear the Burdi clip where he says he moved his foot on the rubber from the first base side to third and that's where that late success came from. It's amazing to me that such a little adjustment can make all the difference. I hope he continues to steamroll into the majors, I have him as an impact arm at some point next year and I think he can help us in the same way Herrera does for the Royals

[Shane Wahl]

 

Famous last words

 

He just needs one breakout season; before this season, he was head in head with Kepler in my book.  Kepler had his.

 

I don't mean he has zero future, period. It's just . . . he isn't making it in the Twins OF or as a Twins 1B.

[twinsfanstreif]

 

 

I'm not going to defend that too much, but they haven't had a sup pick in four years.  I also don't really have too many criticisms of the picks because when they regularly had those picks, the Twins often went conservative with the 1st pick and then went for upside with the supplemental pick, they were all basically a HS kid or a hard throwing college guy with some control concerns.  I'm a big fan of drafting upside over safety.

 

Lookey here, I guess I did defend that too much.

Like I said, I actually liked the picks that year but even going back to Gutierrez(Technically he was late 1st round but it still applies), Shooter Hunt, Bashore, Luke Bard, Etc. Those were terrible picks at the time and continue to look terrible. Those times were when they went with the "safe" picks and it didn't really work out like that. Granted very few of those guys actually make it so I guess it's not really a big deal

[gunnarthor]

 

Like I said, I actually liked the picks that year but even going back to Gutierrez(Technically he was late 1st round but it still applies), Shooter Hunt, Bashore, Luke Bard, Etc. Those were terrible picks at the time and continue to look terrible. Those times were when they went with the "safe" picks and it didn't really work out like that. Granted very few of those guys actually make it so I guess it's not really a big deal

Some of those picks are defensible.  I remember Keith Law praising the Twins for getting Shooter Hunt (although he hated the Gutierrez pick) and Bashore was a really exciting pick that just got hurt - which is a problem with a lot of pitchers.  Even going back to 2004, BA gave the Twins the only "A" for the draft and they really liked the Rainville pick.  Of course, of the supp pitchers they took, only Boyd remained (mostly) healthy.  Bashore, Fox, Rainville, Bard and Hunt all spent long periods on the DL.

[sane]

 

No.  A former first round draft pick.

 

Still he is better than Stuart Turner (same age, same level) who was rated at #14... 

IMO, nonsense!

Stuart Turner is (and has been) an excellent defensive catcher.

Travis Harrison is (and has been) a so-so defensive everything.

Lack of speed is ignored when you are a catcher, but it is career-ending when you are corner outfielder with no power.

IMO, Turner will reach the big leagues AT LEAST as a backup catcher.

IMO, Harrison will reach the big leagues if he buys season tickets.