Article: Arizona Fall League Preview: Walker Provides Intrigue

[Steve Lein]

Fall. My favorite season.

 

It’s always sad to see the summer go, but the colors in Minnesota, ducks and geese flying overhead, and deer rummaging through the woods are some of my favorite things.

 

The fall season, October especially, also means it’s time for the MLB playoffs, another one of my favorite things. Whether that is because early in my childhood I got to stay up late to watch the Twins win the 1987 and 1991 World Series with my hero Kirby Puckett being magical, or getting to sit in the stands and watch as the Soul Patrol, Doug Mientkewicz, Johan Santana, Brad Radke, Justin Morneau, Joe Mauer, Eddie Guardado, Joe Nathan, and everybody else won six Central Division titles in the 2000’s. For me, that experience culminated by watching Game 163 in the ‘Dome from above the baggy.

 

Fall baseball is the best.But in seasons where your favorite team just isn’t any good, or they just didn’t win quite enough games, it leaves a hole. As I’ve gotten older and experienced more Fall-baseball-envy however, I’ve also discovered minor league prospects can fill that hole!

 

The Arizona Fall League is a short season league where every team in Major League Baseball sends some of their top prospects. It is used as a proving ground for players looking to take the final steps to their MLB dreams. Whether he is an elite talent looking to make a case for an early call-up the next season, or someone on the doorstep being evaluated for protection on the 40-man roster, these minor league games in October can determine a lot going into the offseason.

 

Each team sends seven players to the league, and the Twins are represented on the Scottsdale Scorpions roster this season by catchers Mitch Garver and Stuart Turner, outfielder Adam Brett Walker, and pitchers Nick Burdi, Trevor Hildenberger, Jake Reed and Taylor Rogers.

 

It will be the second trip to the league for both Reed and Rogers, as they pitched for the Salt River Rafters last season. Reed appeared in ten games, and put up a 0.71 ERA and 10/3 K-to-BB ratio in 12.2 total innings. Rogers appeared in just three games, as he took a line drive off his shoulder/arm in the third inning of his first start. He allowed one run in 5.2 total innings.

 

Players on that same Rafters roster who made their MLB debut for the Twins this year included Eddie Rosario, Byron Buxton and Max Kepler. Rosario just missed winning the league’s batting title.

 

While there may not be quite that much star power in this season’s selections, there is still plenty of intrigue, and another outfielder is at the forefront.

 

Adam Brett Walker is not your typical prospect.

 

He doesn’t hit for average. He strikes out too much. He won’t wow you in the field or with his arm…But he will amaze you with his power.

 

When I had the privilege of traveling down to spring training again this season, it was hard to miss him on the back fields, because there was a mass migration to the fences where he was playing when it was his turn to bat. Just like there was for Sano and Buxton, and he didn’t disappoint. In a single day, I watched him hit one long blast (probably) out of the complex, and heard the fan reaction for his second one that got out of there in (probably) 0.5 seconds in his next at-bat.

 

Power. He’s definitely got it. But as mentioned, he also has a few of what many would consider red flags in his game.

 

He doesn’t hit for average:

 

In four minor league seasons, he has batted just .254, with a season high of .278 in 2013 for the Low-A Cedar Rapids Kernels. In 2014 he hit just .246 moving up a level to High-A Fort Myers, and .239 this past season with the Southern League Champion Chattanooga Lookouts.

 

He strikes out too much:

 

In 1,747 career professional plate appearances and 452 games, he has made the walk of shame from the batter’s box back to the dugout 542 times, including 195 this season at AA in 133 games, a rate of 34.8%. Compared to his 31.0% career rate strikeout rate, this means it has gone from pretty bad to even worse as he’s moved up the ladder.

 

He won’t wow you in the field or with his arm:

 

As a pure corner outfielder thus far as a pro, he has a career fielding percentage .970. For context on this number, a stat which is hated to the sabermetricians of the world, of the eighty-one MLB-er’s who played 800+ innings in the outfield in 2015, only one had a fielding percentage below that.

 

His name was Hanley Ramirez, and if you didn’t see some of his antics in the outfield this year around the Green Monster for the Boston Red Sox, you are missing out.

 

His career high of seven assists in a season also doesn’t jump out at you when compared to say, the fact that Eddie Rosario’s sixteen in the MLB this season nearly led all of baseball. This was also a number that was driven by his accuracy and opposing team’s willingness to keep testing him, and not by a cannon-like right-arm coming off his shoulder like teammates Aaron Hicks and Byron Buxton possess.

 

These current skills simply won't jump out at you, but is it possible any of these facts will even matter? I mean, there’s still that power…

 

After all, in his four seasons in the Twins’ system he’s launched 14, 27, 25, and 31 home runs. Those totals have led his league each season. In 2015, the second place slugger had 17 compared to his 31. Not even phenom rookie Kyle Schwarber of the Cubs was keeping up with that pace while in the Southern League.

 

He’s also driven in 45, 109, 94, and 106 runners in those seasons, leading his league in that category the past three seasons as well.

 

It’s amazing to me that despite the room for improvement in these areas, the overall production remains. It is also notable that his on-base percentage has remained nearly stagnant throughout his development, meaning his walk-rate has also improved year-to-year, albeit not by much.

 

If you’re into comparisons for his future prospects as a major league player, I hate to tell you this, but you won’t find one. It is also now four years into his development and he has neither moved the needle on his prospect floor nor on his ceiling in any direction. He could be the next Twins’ version of David Ortiz, washed out after some cups of coffee, or he could be the Red Sox version of the same player, a once-in-a-generation slugger. He could also be none of that.

 

His time in the Arizona Fall League in 2015 could finally move those needles either way. That’s what I’ll be watching for.

 

QUICK PREVIEWS:

 

- Nick Burdi finished his 2015 season on a much higher note than it started, as a lack of control in AA led to a midseason demotion.

 

To start the season in Chattanooga, Burdi made it through twenty games with a 3-4 record, 5.93 ERA, thirty-two hits and twenty-two walks allowed in 30.1 innings, while striking out thirty before the roster move was made.

 

He rediscovered the same success in the Florida State League as he had in 2014, dominating the hitters of the league for five weeks before earning back his place at AA. In twenty FSL innings pitched, he racked up twenty-nine strikeouts compared to just three walks, and upon his recall to AA was 2-2 with a 2.25 ERA and two saves.

 

He finished the year for the Lookouts by making eight more appearances, and was 0-0 with one save, a 1.35 ERA, eight hits and ten walks allowed in 13.1 innings, while striking out twenty-one in those games.

 

Burdi does not have to be added to the 40-man roster, so his time in the AFL is a likely audition for AAA and a potential midseason MLB callup.

 

- Trevor Hildenberger was Twins Daily’s 2015 Minor League Relief Pitcher of the Year, and is a much similar situation to Jake Reed’s of last season going into the AFL: Can he continue his ascension in the reliever rankings after finding great success in the lower levels?

 

For 2015, Hildenberger appeared in forty-one games for the Cedar Rapids Kernels and Fort Myers Miracle. Everything about his numbers was otherworldly: 1.55 ERA, 0.72 WHIP, just thirty-nine hits and seven walks allowed, while striking out eighty.

 

- Jake Reed makes his second trip to the AFL, but enters with a much different outlook than a year ago, as his 2015 season was very similar to that of teammate Nick Burdi’s

 

He struggled in the Southern League to the tune of a 5.64 ERA upon his demotion, with several appearances of multi-run damage, including a June 1st appearance of misery where nine runs scored in just one inning pitched (five runs were earned).

 

Like Burdi, his demotion proved only that he could dominate A-league hitters as in twelve innings he did not allow a single earned run.

 

He was back up at AA to end the season, but it didn’t go well, as he raised his AA earned run average to 6.32 after two appearances to end his season.

 

- Taylor Rogers, like Reed, makes his second consecutive trip to the AFL, and I’m sure he’d enjoy more of an opportunity than he had last year.

 

2015 was a very good season for the left-hander, and he spent all of it in AAA with the Rochester Red Wings. His 174 innings pitched trailed only teammate Pat Dean for the lead in all of the minor leagues in that category.

 

What this trip might mean for Rogers however, is how he fits in the future plans of the parent club.

 

He has been a starter all of his career, but it is only his dominance against same-sided hitters that has really stood out to this point.

 

He had a 1.42 ERA, .177 batting average against, and 0.68 WHIP vs. left-handed hitters in 2014, while against righties those numbers ballooned to 5.23, 1.67, and .326. It’s been a similar pattern throughout his MiLB career, and could mean that a similar career path to another lefty on the Twins, Brian Duensing, could be in order.

 

- Stuart Turner goes into the Fall League after spending all of 2015 in Chattanooga. It was a struggle for him, as his .223/.322/.306 triple slash line will attest, but he was much better in the second half, as he went .262/.363/.341 after the All-Star break.

 

Notable, is he kept his Isolated Discipline (OBP minus BA) at .100 throughout the year, at least maintaining an ability to get on base through means other than hits.

 

Turner has been sent to the level above the next player in this preview in each of the last two seasons, but their AFL performance this fall may shape the pecking order for 2016.

 

-Mitch Garver did much more with the bat than Turner in 2014, but that was while being a level lower in the Midwest League and a year older than Turner. In 2015, he posted very similar numbers in the FSL to what Turner had done the year before (.688 OPS vs. .698 OPS) while those same conditions applied.

 

They are both labeled as strong defenders, finishing one-two in the collegiate catcher of the year voting in 2013, which is where the competition for playing time in 2016 comparison comes in.

 

It is also a bit odd to have two catchers from one MLB team on the same AFL roster, but this may be by design. The Twins likely want to learn a bit more about their depth at the catcher position going into the offseason, as this is one area they might look hard at improving through other means, and what better way to do so than side-by-side?

 

QUICK FIX:

 

The Scottsdale Scorpions are taking on the Salt River Rafters on opening night as I write this (Box Score), and Walker has contributed a walk, after which he scored from first on a double.

 

Good luck to all of the players in the AFL for the Twins this season, and I’m looking forward to following along with everyone at Twins Daily!

 

Please feel free to ask any questions about the AFL and discuss this week’s performances!

 

Click here to view the article

[jokin]

Quick update.  Three Twins prospects got in the game.  All did quite well.

 

1) ABW batted 7th, had 2 walks in 4 PAs and scored a run.

2) Sturart Turner batted 9th, went 1-2 with an RBI double plus 2 walks.

3) Trevor Hildenburger pitched 2 innings, battling through 2 Scottsdale errors behind him, 5 GB outs, 2 GB singles, 0 FBs hit, 2 strikeouts- including #45-ranked Rockies prospect, Raimel Tapia.

Edited October 14, 2015 by jokin

[HitInAPinch]

It doesn't sound like the Twins are sending that much talent to the AZL.  More of a "redemption" type trip for all of them.  I wonder if Walker is way to enamored with the homers and he's there so that get corrected.  

[Blackjack]

Nice review of the players sent out west!! Thanks!!

 

It will be really interesting to see how Turner and Garver do, since its such a big need for the Twins.  It sure would be nice to see one of them emerge and be able to split time with Suzuki by July.

[jokin]

 

It doesn't sound like the Twins are sending that much talent to the AZL.  More of a "redemption" type trip for all of them.  I wonder if Walker is way to enamored with the homers and he's there so that get corrected.  

 

What "talent" is left in the organization and developmentally ready for the challenge? I've been scratching my head on who they could/should have sent instead. Seriously, the pickings were either kind-of slim/redundant:

 

 

SPs- Berrios, Gonsalves, Stewart, Batts (No Way- Too many IPs/other health concerns/not ready)

 

Buxton (Again)?

Kepler (Again)?

Meyer (Again)?

Chargois?  I think he earned it, but he really falls in the category above for the SPs

Melotakis?  Was scheduled for the AFL in 2014, but coming back from TJ, see above.

Peterson?

Goodrum?

Gordon?  I'd have liked to see this aggressive move.

Harrison?

Darnell?  

 

You can see I'm really stretching at this point...

 

 

 

Edited October 14, 2015 by jokin

[Seth Stohs]

Yeah, I think they sent a pretty good group. Kepler and Buxton were there the last two years, so they didn't need to go. Duffey, Berrios - I'd rather they not pick up a ball until January. Rogers had a lot of innings too, but he's thrown innings before. I think they sent a pretty good group.

[jokin]

 

Nice review of the players sent out west!! Thanks!!

 

It will be really interesting to see how Turner and Garver do, since its such a big need for the Twins.  It sure would be nice to see one of them emerge and be able to split time with Suzuki by July.

 

Garver seems to be falling off of some Twins top prospect lists, but John Sickels just came out with a review of his top sleeper prospect list to start out the season, and he had this to say about Garver's season at Ft Myers:

 

Mitch Garver, C, Twins:

 

Age 24, hit .245/.356/.333 with four homers, 69 walks, 82 strikeouts in 433 at-bats in High-A. As with Ford, this was actually above-average hitting for the Florida State League and he controlled the zone well, so too soon to give up here although age is against him.

 

Defense has improved.

 

 

Hit better in the second half and it is possible he had some early-season echoes from a concussion suffered late in 2014.

 

 

Garver did have a wRC+ of 121 (that would be close to Top 10 in the FSL) in the second half versus 111 in the first half, with added power (all his homers were in the 2nd half).  Perhaps the combination of his season-ending concussion in 2014 and adjusting to the new Miracle hitting coach slowed down his offense a bit coming out of ST.  Good to hear that his defense picked up in 2015.

 

While it's getting closer to now-or-never for Garver, this will be a nice little head-to-head competition for both Garver and Turner, and maybe a little extra Fall drama while we search for some answers to the Twins' catching future. I have to think that Turner has the inside track with the superior defensive chops (athletically/physically, there's no question he's better than Suzuki- right now), but I've got to say, in the one game I saw him play- there was still just a bit too much of Butera in that swing of his.

 

 

Edited October 14, 2015 by jokin

[Seth Stohs]

He had a really solid second half. I think Garver is still a legit future big leaguer. The power dropped, but that's not unusual in the FSL. He takes a lot of walks, has a very professional approach. And, as I've mentioned before, pitchers love throwing to him and working with him. His defense has improved.

 

And, it's far from now-or-never for Garver or Turner.

[jokin]

 

He had a really solid second half. I think Garver is still a legit future big leaguer. The power dropped, but that's not unusual in the FSL. He takes a lot of walks, has a very professional approach. And, as I've mentioned before, pitchers love throwing to him and working with him. His defense has improved.

 

And, it's far from now-or-never for Garver or Turner.

 

Definitely not now-or-never for Turner, I have a feeling that the Twins consider him the golden boy that they have big plans for- to gradually ascend into the position full-time.

 

Sickels holds out some hope for Garver, as do I- I think there's a good chance he can get his numbers back up in the Southern League, especially if he gets some help in the rest of the lineup- but, back to Sickels, he was generally overall disappointed with his entire group of "sleepers", except for 2 guys and "the catchers with a glove."  I hope he was referring to Garver with that closing comment.  It's very encouraging to hear you confirm that his defense is upticking, and that he's developing into a pitcher's catcher.  

 

My bigger concern is that it seems like all of the scouting services have dropped Garver off of their Twins Top Prospects radar- which means that to them anyway, the Twins now have all of their near-future catching hopes in one basket. Obviously, the Twins, or the AFL, set themselves up with a rather unusual arrangement- if it's something the Twins pushed- that would be an indication that Garver is still in their long-term plans. It would be ideal if these two guys generate some friendly competition and push each other onto the Twins roster for good by 2017.  If Garver has a hot first half, perhaps he can join Turner in Rochester to close out the season.

 

Having Suzuki vest his contract over to 2017 would be sub-optimal, if not disastrous, for their post-season chances- his positive intangibles are going to become increasingly outweighed by his lack of contribution on both offense and defense. (Terry needs to sign AJ this year to ensure that vesting doesn't happen, with perhaps Turner getting a few call-ups/tryouts throughout the year). 

Edited October 14, 2015 by jokin

[ashbury]

Definitely not now-or-never for Turner, I have a feeling that Twins consider him the golden boy that they have big plans for- to gradually ascend into the position full-time.

How about, to ascend as rapidly as his bat will allow, which hasn't been super-fast but hasn't been agonizingly slow either?

[blindeke]

I feel like Walker's ceiling is Chris Carter. I suppose that's not so bad?

[Bob Sacamento]

 

I feel like Walker's ceiling is Chris Carter. I suppose that's not so bad?

I was actually just going to write the same thing.  Of course Carter is on his third team... Power is such a commodity nowadays, ABW is never going to win a batting title, hell he'll likely never hit above .240 in the bigs but a line of .220/.300/.450 is "do-able" it just might not be for the Twins.

[Willihammer]

I noticed Walker has just 9 HBPs in 1918 PAs. Compared to say 20 in 1892 for Sano or 25 in 2165 PAs for Morneau (as random examples).

 

Does Walker need to belly up to the plate?

[Mike Sixel]

For all of his issues, I agree, Walker is intriguing.

[Seth Stohs]

 

I feel like Walker's ceiling is Chris Carter. I suppose that's not so bad?

 

I think that would be the hope, though Carter walked a lot more in the minors. But I think that's the type of player he can be.

[Seth Stohs]

 

How about, to ascend as rapidly as his bat will allow, which hasn't been super-fast but hasn't been agonizingly slow either?

 

What's weird is that they had Turner skip the Midwest League. He's advanced defensively, but if they wanted the bat to catch up, it would have been nice to put him at Cedar Rapids. Then instead of keeping him at Ft. Myers to start this year, he jumped up to AA right away. I'm not saying that's right or wrong... but if it was me, I'd have Garver and Turner both start the year at AA next year. I think an extra half-season there for Turner would be beneficial. In fact, it wouldn't hurt for him to spend the full season there in the hopes that his bat will catch up a little. He doesn't need to be a great hitter to be a valuable MLB catcher, but he has to be OK.

[DocBauer]

While this particular AFL class may not have the glamour of last season, I think it's a very interesting group! Rogers could have a future, even in the pen, while Burdi and James are both very intriguing as bullpen options. Possibly by mid-season 2016 if they get their control back and keep it?

 

Walker is a lightening rod for hopes as well as debate! As stated, even able to hit in the .240-.250 range at the ML level with his doubles and HR power could be great.

 

Turner and Garver are no sure thing...but both have shown flashes...both hit better in the second half of their respective seasons, (second year in a row for Turner to do this), and both have quality defensive reputations. A long way to go with both of them, but this could provide a nice springboard to see what we really have here.

 

 

[jokin]

 

How about, to ascend as rapidly as his bat will allow, which hasn't been super-fast but hasn't been agonizingly slow either?

 

He doesn't need to be a great hitter to be a valuable MLB catcher, but he has to be OK.

 

 

 

I guess it depends on what the Twins want- they're the ones pushing him through- the bat doesn't appear to be too much of a concern to them. Interestingly, Turner's the one that skipped a level- and they've made a point of keeping the two separated since draft day. They obviously have shown that they will want him sooner at the MLB level than Garver (if ever, in the latter case). Based on this, I'm assuming that if Turner performs credibly enough in AZ (above the Mendoza line?), he'll start out in Rochester, and the same result for Garver would presumably mean he starts in Chattanooga.

 

 If you've watched Turner bat, it's been mostly Butera-sque slow-drip agony.

 

Turner's full-year @ AA: Slash .223/.322/.306 wRC+ 83

Butera's full-year @ AA: Slash .219/.308/.354 wRC+ 80

 

Turner wins the comp, but only barely, yes, he's little younger, and Butera had a 1/2 year previous AA experience, but there's little thus far- other than his plate discipline- to suggest he can even expect to hit at close to MLB average at the position.

Edited October 14, 2015 by jokin

[Steve Lein]

 

I feel like Walker's ceiling is Chris Carter. I suppose that's not so bad?

 

If he could reach it, sure!

 

Carter is often the guy who people do try to compare Walker too, but Carter has a career .283/.378/.535 line in the minors.

 

Walker isn't close to that average or on-base percentage number. Carter's K-rate in the minors is 8% lower. His walk rate is 5% higher. This is why I say you won't find a comparison.

 

 

[diehardtwinsfan]

I'm pretty bullish on Garver.  I'd note that he had a pretty big disparity between his first two months in the FSL and the remainder of his season.  Not sure if it was concussion related or just a slow start facing a harder league, but he put up numbers much closer to his MWL line once he figured it out.

[TNTwinsFan]

I wonder if ABW might be suffering a bit from what Sano was talking about when discussing the quality of pitching between AA and MLB...Maybe he would hit a little better against more consistent pitching (although he could suffer the from the same "I-can't-lay off-breaking balls-outside-the-zone" syndrom that Buxton suffered from upon his arrival to the bigs). Send ABW to AAA and see how he fares.

[sane]

 

"while Burdi and James are both very intriguing as bullpen options"

 

 

Who is James?

[jokin]

 

Who is James?

 

Did Lebron pull an MJ?

[DocBauer]

Sorry...my POS computer at work took Jake Reed and made James out of it.

 

Literally, the system used is called POS. lol

[DocBauer]

What's weird is that they had Turner skip the Midwest League. He's advanced defensively, but if they wanted the bat to catch up, it would have been nice to put him at Cedar Rapids. Then instead of keeping him at Ft. Myers to start this year, he jumped up to AA right away. I'm not saying that's right or wrong... but if it was me, I'd have Garver and Turner both start the year at AA next year. I think an extra half-season there for Turner would be beneficial. In fact, it wouldn't hurt for him to spend the full season there in the hopes that his bat will catch up a little. He doesn't need to be a great hitter to be a valuable MLB catcher, but he has to be OK.

I agree with Seth here. There was an obvious attempt on the Twins part to separate these two in order that they could play daily. (And possibly not suffer from any direct, personal competition?)

 

While Turner certainly hasn't set the world on fire with his bat thus far, I find it encouraging that despite the full level skip, that he has adapted, learned, and improved each second half of the past 2 seasons. And improved rather substantially from first to second half.

 

I was disappointed in Garver's bat this season. But again, he did advance a level. And he did perform better in the second half of the season. So I choose to be an optimist in regard to '16.

 

In fact, I think we've hear and read enough of these guys, since drafted, that a solid AFL from...hopefully... both, could make us all feel a lot better about the Twins catching future.

[USAFChief]

If anyone plans to attend AFL games, let me know. I'll be making the trip up to Phoenix, haven't decided when. If I have a TDer or two there to BS with, that'll make my trip.

[jokin]

 

I agree with Seth here. There was an obvious attempt on the Twins part to separate these two in order that they could play daily. (And possibly not suffer from any direct, personal competition?)

While Turner certainly hasn't set the world on fire with his bat thus far, I find it encouraging that despite the full level skip, that he has adapted, learned, and improved each second half of the past 2 seasons. And improved rather substantially from first to second half.

I was disappointed in Garver's bat this season. But again, he did advance a level. And he did perform better in the second half of the season. So I choose to be an optimist in regard to '16.

In fact, I think we've hear and read enough of these guys, since drafted, that a solid AFL from...hopefully... both, could make us all feel a lot better about the Twins catching future.

 

I disagree with Seth on holding Turner back, unless he completely bombs in Arizona.  Ideally in my mind, give Garver a half season as the #1 guy in Chatty, and then put them together in Rochester, both knocking on the door simultaneously.

 

FWIW, I did a little digging, and I think it's somewhat important to note that the overall pitching in the FSL performed markedly better this season for Garver to have to face, than last year when Turner was in the League.  The already-very-stingy FSL was even moreso in 2015.  For all levels A and above, the League as a whole was in 1st place in R/G, ERA, WHIP, H/9 and HR/9.  (The numbers were all markedly improved over the FSL pitchers in 2014). 

 

Here are the total batting comps in the FSL. Pretty telling, especially the power drop:

 

2015- Slash .248/.313/.337/.650  HR 599

2014- Slash .257/.325/.371/.696  HR 873

 

Besides the other issues that Garver dealt with, perhaps the change in the Pitch/Hit balance of power had a role to play in his statistical drop-off, as well.

 

 

 

Edited October 15, 2015 by jokin

[glunn]

It appears that Taylor Rogers had a good game today -- he started the game and had one earned run in 4 innings and 5 strikeouts.

 

Interestingly, neither Twins catcher played, and ABW DH'd and went 1 for 4 with a walk and two Ks.

 

http://mlb.mlb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2015_10_14_srrwin_scowin_1&t=g_box&sid=l119

[Mike Sixel]

I really wish they'd make Rogers a RP already. But, I don't see it happening any time soon.