Why so much love for Plouffe?

[stringer bell]

It seems likely that Buxton starts the season in AAA.  I know Arcia's performance in AAA did not inspire confidence but what about giving him a shot for the first 6-8 weeks of the season in the OF instead of bringing back Hunter?  Platoon him with Robinson or even Danny Santana.  If he stinks the place up you call-up Buxton and/or Kepler.  I just hate to let Arcia go for nothing.

This is exactly what I wrote in a blog the day after the season was over. I don't expect it to last very long like that, but I think more AAA time for Buxton is very likely and finding a place for Arcia, at least temporarily, is also something that will happen. I have always been of the opinion that Arcia should be able play well enough in the field if he mashes. I hope that happens. If he were to hit well and still be unacceptable in the field, then adjustments would have to be made.

[jimmer]

 

Agree on the first part. Yes there is a surplus of corner/DH prospects ATM but remember the first half when rotating different guys through DH produced a 103 wRC+ which was 11th in the AL. Breaking camps with Sano at DH again ensures 150 wRC+ production which would be tops or near tops in the AL.

I wouldn't say Sano is ensured to have a 150 wRC+.  We sure hope he continues to do that, along with posting a .396 BABIP, put neither is ensured.  

 

Eight out of 141 qualifying batters in the majors did that in 2014. If we look at guys with 300 or more PA, only 10 out of 268 players did it. It's not as easy to do that over a full season as one might think.  I personally would be stoked if he could maintain a 130+ wRC+.

[Major League Ready]

 

I don't like Plouffe any more or less than the next guy.  My personal reason for not wanting to see a guy who is "decidedly average" leave is a lack of guys who are "decidedly ABOVE average."  I've said it before and I'll continue to say it:  Put Sano at 3B and give Plouffe 5 starts a week rotationg between the 2 corner infield & outfield spots & DH.  Or make him a catcher.

If you put him in a corner OF spot you have a way below average defender with mid 700s OPS.  You might as well keep Hunter and once Buxton is here Rosario and Hicks are both about the same as Plouffe in terms of OPS or wRC+ and they are waaaaaaay better defensively.  They also are still young and pretty likely to improve. 

 

If you play him at first you have the $23M man on the bench.  Granted his offense was worse than Plouffe’s this year but I would not bet against Mauer having better offensive production than Plouffe next year.  I would also bet on Vargas to be quite a bit better than Plouffe offensively with a little more experience.  Regardless, there is little or no improvement to the team with Plouffe playing 1st. 

 

There are any number of options (including FAs) that should net better production at DH.  And I am going to assume the make him a catcher statement was tongue and cheek.  IMO, this is why Plouffe will be gone.

[TheLeviathan]

I think gambling on Vargas, Arcia, or Kepler at DH is defensible since Plouffe's tine here is running short and he is likely at peak value.

[USAFChief]

 

I think gambling on Vargas, Arcia, or Kepler at DH is defensible since Plouffe's tine here is running short and he is likely at peak value.

I'd still probably take it, but Vargas and/or Arcia at DH isn't the only gamble I'm worried about.  

 

I'm worried a little about Sano's continued ability to hit, and worried a lot about his ability to play third base every day.  

 

 

[Willihammer]

 

I wouldn't say Sano is ensured to have a 150 wRC+.  We sure hope he continues to do that, along with posting a .396 BABIP, put neither is ensured.  

 

Eight out of 141 qualifying batters in the majors did that in 2014. If we look at guys with 300 or more PA, only 10 out of 268 players did it. It's not as easy to do that over a full season as one might think.  I personally would be stoked if he could maintain a 130+ wRC+.

"Ensure" is maybe too strong a word, but it just seems like people maybe forget how bad the DH was before Sano arrived.

[jimmer]

 

"Ensure" is maybe too strong a word, but it just seems like people maybe forget how bad the DH was before Sano arrived.

Yeah, I really don't get that idea that since DH is traditionally an older player spot in the lineup that means it has to be.  If a player is expected to not be so good in the field but can mash, then why not just let him DH like Ortiz did.  The only issue for me is if he stays DH, and we think Vargas and/or Arcia might end up being quality major league hitters and are only be able to stick at DH, it becomes an issue.

[TheLeviathan]

 

I'd still probably take it, but Vargas and/or Arcia at DH isn't the only gamble I'm worried about.  

 

I'm worried a little about Sano's continued ability to hit, and worried a lot about his ability to play third base every day.  

 

I agree, you're taking some chances.  But that's also where you need to trust the guys bringing in the talent.  

 

Most of my "Trade Plouffe" stance stems from the fact that he's basically gone in two years and we have a young player that might be able to take his place.  We may not have a better trade chip going into the offseason to address our other issues.

 

Plus, if you really don't trust Vargas/Arcia/Kepler - it's a lot easier to fill DH than just about anything else in FA.

[SwainZag]

 

I think that there are more (good) potential trading partners for Plouffe than cited earlier.  The key is thinking outside the box.  Many say "Catcher" are ignoring other alternative that may land a better return.  The Twins need improvement at several positions--so horizons should be expanded beyond Catcher.  A true top-of-the-rotation pitcher is needed, consider Plouffe and a prospect or two (or one of the young OFers).  Escobar is not the final answer at SS, even if he is Ryan's favorite,  he's mediocre and won't improve.  The Twins need premier talent to be a serious year-round competitor--there's no longer need for C+ players, because they have plenty of those guys.  There is need for a second HR hitter (and one with .270 average who take "his" walks).  Irelevant what position he plays--they can "make room" for him.  The Twins need to trade for "skill-sets" (what a guy will do) rather than what position he plays.

 

I think saying that is a straight assumption, especially for a 26 year old.  He put up 4 WAR combined in the last 2 seasons, and while he probably won't ever been an AS player, I don't see why he can't be the answer at SS.

 

.268/.331/.426 - This is Jhonny Peralta's career line

 

.268/.312/.425 - This is Eduardo Escobar's line for the past 2 seasons.

 

I don't know if Escobar will ever have the glove that Peralta has, but if he turned into that kind of player, I don't know how anyone would complain about him being the starting SS.

[jimmer]

2014 was an outlier for Peralta defensively.  He went back to his stinky defensive self this year.  Peralta doesn't set the defensive bar high.  Escobar was better than him this year defensively.

[SwainZag]

 

2014 was an outlier for Peralta defensively.  He went back to his stinky defensive self this year.  Peralta doesn't set the defensive bar high.  Escobar was better than him this year defensively.

 

I just browsed his career fielding ratings.  Either way, in a full season, Esco could be a 15-20 HR guy at SS with decent glove, nothing to sneeze at.

[kab21]

 

Mauer is part of the equation. 

No, he isn't part of the equation.  He is playing 1B this year.  People need to come to the realization that he isn't going to be in a competition for playing time.  He will gets days at DH of course but he is the starting 1B.  He also isn't going to get a 3B glove this year or practice at all at the position.

 

If you trade Plouffe then the DH spot opens up for a competition of Vargas, Pinto or any of the OF prospects that aren't starting.  This isn't a bad thing but the Twins need to get a good return in a Plouffe trade.  If they got some really good prospects (like a medium to high upside starter) then I am not against it but he is a very good player and there are only a few teams that really have any interest in a 3B going into the offseason and Plouffe isn't the only option.

[Major League Ready]

 

No, he isn't part of the equation.  He is playing 1B this year.  People need to come to the realization that he isn't going to be in a competition for playing time.  He will gets days at DH of course but he is the starting 1B.  He also isn't going to get a 3B glove this year or practice at all at the position.

 

If you trade Plouffe then the DH spot opens up for a competition of Vargas, Pinto or any of the OF prospects that aren't starting.  This isn't a bad thing but the Twins need to get a good return in a Plouffe trade.  If they got some really good prospects (like a medium to high upside starter) then I am not against it but he is a very good player and there are only a few teams that really have any interest in a 3B going into the offseason and Plouffe isn't the only option.

I agree completely that Mauer will be the 1B next year and I think the idea of him at 3B makes no sense at all.  He is pretty bad a 1B, how is 3B a better idea?  The reason I said he is part of the equation is because it has been suggested more than once that the solution is for him to be used at a combination of 3B/1B and DH.  I would agree he is not part of the equation in the context you are thinking.  As  a matter of fact, it probably makes more sense to base the decision on Plouffe at 3B/Sano at DH  vs  Sano at 3B / someone else at DH plus whatever you get for Plouffe.   You could also theoretically add spending Plouffe's salary on BP upgrades.  

[kab21]

 

I agree completely that Mauer will be the 1B next year and I think the idea of him at 3B makes no sense at all.  He is pretty bad a 1B, how is 3B a better idea?  The reason I said he is part of the equation is because it has been suggested more than once that the solution is for him to be used at a combination of 3B/1B and DH.  I would agree he is not part of the equation in the context you are thinking.  As  a matter of fact, it probably makes more sense to base the decision on Plouffe at 3B/Sano at DH  vs  Sano at 3B / someone else at DH plus whatever you get for Plouffe.   You could also theoretically add spending Plouffe's salary on BP upgrades.  

Yes.  Mauer is going to play so he isn't part of an equation for more playing time for someone else.

 

Theoretically there should be nothing (like money) stopping the Twins from adding to the bullpen unless they are going after a top closer (which they shouldn't).  The Twins aren't spending on SP, they probably aren't spending on a catcher (lack of options) and spending on the bullpen is probably a 5-8M/yr type of spending.

Trading Plouffe comes down to the quality of prospects obtained unless he goes to SD for one of their catchers.  There just aren't many teams (hardly any) that need a veteran 3B and have extra MLB catchers.  Adding more prospects at this point is kind of shrug-worthy but if the Twins are blown away by some prospects with upside then they certainly should listen.

 

The absolute last thing that they should do however is feel like they need to trade Plouffe in order to clear 3B for Sano.  That kind of thinking (forcing a trade) usually ends disastrously.  Take an opportunity if it presents itself of course but don't force a trade.

[Major League Ready]

Why would it be “shrug worthy” if the twins got good prospects in return?

[Mike Sixel]

Mike,

 

It seems likely that Buxton starts the season in AAA.  I know Arcia's performance in AAA did not inspire confidence but what about giving him a shot for the first 6-8 weeks of the season in the OF instead of bringing back Hunter?  Platoon him with Robinson or even Danny Santana.  If he stinks the place up you call-up Buxton and/or Kepler.  I just hate to let Arcia go for nothing.

I agree, I want them to give Arcia a chance. The reason I said DH was that I am assuming that Rosario, Hicks, Placeholder start the OF next year, with Buxton up in May or June, with Arcia playing some DH and some RF (not LF, why do they keep doing this?). If he's the RF to start, I'm ok with that too. My point was, I'd be willing to roll the dice on Sano at 3B and other options at DH. Vargas, Mauer (ugh), Arcia, whatever.

[dxpavelka]

 

If you put him in a corner OF spot you have a way below average defender with mid 700s OPS.  You might as well keep Hunter and once Buxton is here Rosario and Hicks are both about the same as Plouffe in terms of OPS or wRC+ and they are waaaaaaay better defensively.  They also are still young and pretty likely to improve. 

 

If you play him at first you have the $23M man on the bench.  Granted his offense was worse than Plouffe’s this year but I would not bet against Mauer having better offensive production than Plouffe next year.  I would also bet on Vargas to be quite a bit better than Plouffe offensively with a little more experience.  Regardless, there is little or no improvement to the team with Plouffe playing 1st. 

 

There are any number of options (including FAs) that should net better production at DH.  And I am going to assume the make him a catcher statement was tongue and cheek.  IMO, this is why Plouffe will be gone.

Why NOT make him a catcher?  Are we loaded with better options capable of hitting 20 home runs and driving in 80+ runs?  And why not rotate him at the corner & DH spots one day a week at each.  There is not enough offense on this team to think that trading away a 20 home run 80+ RBI guy will lead to an improved team.  A year or two from now, maybe.  But at this point, NO.

[ashbury]

Why NOT make him a catcher?

Plouffe? Because, he'd be, well, terrible?

[Vanimal46]

 

Why NOT make him a catcher? 

 

 

Let's take a look at all of the examples in MLB history where a 29 year old 3B transitioned to C:

 

- uh.....

- hmm....

- I've got nothing.....

[ashbury]

Let's take a look at all of the examples in MLB history where a 29 year old 3B transitioned to C:

 

- uh.....

- hmm....

- I've got nothing.....

That's the classic cherry picking technique of making overly specific requirements. Broaden that to 28-30 year old corner infielders and outfielders converting to catcher.

 

Oops, still got nothing.

 

Tools of ignorance, wasn't that the phrase? Who the heck would try that? Unless told that one's MLB career was otherwise at an end. And even then... uh, no.

[sane]

Broaden that to 28-30 year old corner infielders and outfielders converting to catcher.

Oops, still got nothing.

The LATEST switches to catcher I remember were ex-infielders Buster Posey and Jorge Posada. But those conversions were made BEFORE they reached the Big Leagues. An MLB player who became an MLB catcher would be in "Ripley's Believe it or NNNNN..ever mind!"

[kab21]

 

Why would it be “shrug worthy” if the twins got good prospects in return?

It would be shrug worthy because the Twins are entering a win now timeframe instead of setting up for 4-5 years from now. 

 

I really don't understand this fascination making the team weaker right now.  Yes, Vargas is interesting but he has struggled so far and if any of Mauer/Sano/Plouffe get injured he is probably the first guy into the lineup anyway.  I would give it a significantly <50% chance that all 3 of those guys make it through the year healthy.  Good teams have depth and are able to call up a AA/AAA player or put a bench player into the lineup and not suffer a big drop off.  Why do the Twins have to trade that kind of depth away just because they have it?

 

But if you read that full paragraph I said that if some team blows the Twins away with some medium to high upside prospects then I have no problems with the trade.  The problem is that nobody is making an argument based on the return of the trade.  They just expect it to be a good trade despite only a handful of teams even needing a veteran 3B.  There is a lot of league depth at 3B right now and most of the contenders are locked into a guy at the position.

[ashbury]

They just expect it to be a good trade despite only a handful of teams even needing a veteran 3B.

This. We remember trading AJ when Mauer came up and getting a haul. But 3B is not the high-demand position catcher always is.

 

Another difference, which doesn't affect the quality of the trade itself, is that no one had doubts about Mauer's offense OR defense being MLB-ready, making the AJ trade a no-brainer (even if Mauer then went out and hurt himself early on, making us wish we had a big-time catcher for one more year). But the jury is still very much out on Sano's glove. You trade Plouffe, and then have Sano's fielding pct be .880 in the month of April, even if he shows flashes of brilliance on certain plays, and you have a big problem on your hands, especially if the DH slot is currently productive.

 

_{^{/ I'm not a proponent of fielding pct as the measure of fielding value of course, but the nature of Sano's problem would show up in that traditional and easy-to-explain way}}

[Major League Ready]

It would be shrug worthy because the Twins are entering a win now timeframe instead of setting up for 4-5 years from now. 

 

I really don't understand this fascination making the team weaker right now.  Yes, Vargas is interesting but he has struggled so far and if any of Mauer/Sano/Plouffe get injured he is probably the first guy into the lineup anyway.  I would give it a significantly <50% chance that all 3 of those guys make it through the year healthy.  Good teams have depth and are able to call up a AA/AAA player or put a bench player into the lineup and not suffer a big drop off.  Why do the Twins have to trade that kind of depth away just because they have it?

 

But if you read that full paragraph I said that if some team blows the Twins away with some medium to high upside prospects then I have no problems with the trade.  The problem is that nobody is making an argument based on the return of the trade.  They just expect it to be a good trade despite only a handful of teams even needing a veteran 3B.  There is a lot of league depth at 3B right now and most of the contenders are locked into a guy at the position.

I can appreciate where you are coming from.  We just disagree on a couple of key points.  The first is that the Twins have a 4-5 year window.  This team could be very good for a decade (maybe more) if the FO maximize assets.  We still have a very good farm system after having graduated Sano, Rosario, and Duffey.  Buxton likely starts at AAA but he will be up for good at some point next year.  Kepler, and Berrios will also be up next year.   Assuming they sign Sano long-term.  That gives us six year of control from this point forward on a very good core.  Plus, there are a number of players in the low minors that could help extend this up period.   Obviously, many won’t pan out but the depth is such that the odds would suggest we will continue to add productive ML players over the next few years.

 

We also shed the contracts for Mauer, Nolasco, Santana, and Hughes.  Santana might end up being productive but Mauer and Nolasco are providing very modest value and Hughes is a big maybe.  That payroll availability will also help extend the number of years we should be in contention.  Use it to extend our best young players and perhaps add a key FA.

 

Now let’s talk specifically about the next 5 years.  Are they more likely to be good in year 1 or 5?  They will be much better when Berrios, Buxton, and Kepler are transitioned onto this team.  However, the team is not going to instantly reach their ceiling.  It takes a few years.  (See Kansas City)  Therefore, Plouffe is not going to be here when this team really hits its stride.  I would also suggest retaining Plouffe is a half @$$ approach regardless.  I would rather they step up and go get a big LH power bat to hit behind Sano.  Mauer is not going anywhere so the most likely spot is DH.  We could go get a LH hitting corner outfielder but that is not ideal right now.  It makes more sense to give Arcia a chance while you wait for Kepler and Buxton to get here.

 

The bottom line is we should shoot for a better solution than Sano/Plouffe/Mauer for 1B/DH.  We should also get something for Plouffe while we can because this team could be very good for a long period of time if we don’t get to short-sighted.

[Willihammer]

I think everyone agrees that if there's a good deal for Plouffe out there, then its worth gambling on Sano's glove at 3B. Even if the return are prospects. The question is, what's a good deal? Personally I would want more than a single prospect in A ball as in the Doug M. or D. Span trades.

[dxpavelka]

 

Plouffe? Because, he'd be, well, terrible?

As opposed to Suzuki, Herman, Fryer, Pinto?

[dxpavelka]

 

I can appreciate where you are coming from.  We just disagree on a couple of key points.  The first is that the Twins have a 4-5 year window.  This team could be very good for a decade (maybe more) if the FO maximize assets.  We still have a very good farm system after having graduated Sano, Rosario, and Duffey.  Buxton likely starts at AAA but he will be up for good at some point next year.  Kepler, and Berrios will also be up next year.   Assuming they sign Sano long-term.  That gives us six year of control from this point forward on a very good core.  Plus, there are a number of players in the low minors that could help extend this up period.   Obviously, many won’t pan out but the depth is such that the odds would suggest we will continue to add productive ML players over the next few years.

 

We also shed the contracts for Mauer, Nolasco, Santana, and Hughes.  Santana might end up being productive but Mauer and Nolasco are providing very modest value and Hughes is a big maybe.  That payroll availability will also help extend the number of years we should be in contention.  Use it to extend our best young players and perhaps add a key FA.

 

Now let’s talk specifically about the next 5 years.  Are they more likely to be good in year 1 or 5?  They will be much better when Berrios, Buxton, and Kepler are transitioned onto this team.  However, the team is not going to instantly reach their ceiling.  It takes a few years.  (See Kansas City)  Therefore, Plouffe is not going to be here when this team really hits its stride.  I would also suggest retaining Plouffe is a half @$$ approach regardless.  I would rather they step up and go get a big LH power bat to hit behind Sano.  Mauer is not going anywhere so the most likely spot is DH.  We could go get a LH hitting corner outfielder but that is not ideal right now.  It makes more sense to give Arcia a chance while you wait for Kepler and Buxton to get here.

 

The bottom line is we should shoot for a better solution than Sano/Plouffe/Mauer for 1B/DH.  We should also get something for Plouffe while we can because this team could be very good for a long period of time if we don’t get to short-sighted.

Just because there is a window, whether 4 years or 5 years or 10 years doesn't mean anything is going to happen with that window.  Bottom line is IF you trade Plouffe you've got to make your team better in doing so.  Not guaranteed by any stretch of the imagination.

[tobi0040]

If we aren't reasonably sure Sano can play 3B, it would be a mistake to trade a 2.5 WAR 3B.  It is a pretty thin position in MLB.

 

Heck, look at the Twins 3B since Koskie.  His last season here was 2004. Punto.  Lamb.  Bautista.  Valencia. A washed up Crede.

[kab21]

 

I can appreciate where you are coming from.  We just disagree on a couple of key points.  The first is that the Twins have a 4-5 year window. 

The point is that the window is open now and they don't need to operate as sellers.  Talking about Plouffe not being here when the team hits its stride is silly.  Stop selling unless the return is great or if you can get Norris and plug the one offensive hole that they have.  They have some questions marks elsewhere but there are some good/great prospects for those spots.

 

You make an argument that the Twins should be doing better than a Mauer/Plouffe/Sano combination at 1B/3B/DH and then downgrade defensively at 3B and put a question mark like Vargas in at DH.  That definitely isn't guaranteed to be better. 

 

I like Vargas but even if a trade isn't made I think it is likely that at some point someone gets injured.  Good teams have depth and can absorb injuries.  Bad teams are an injury away from starting Eduardo Nunez at 3B.

[SwainZag]

 

The point is that the window is open now and they don't need to operate as sellers.  Talking about Plouffe not being here when the team hits its stride is silly.  Stop selling unless the return is great or if you can get Norris and plug the one offensive hole that they have.  They have some questions marks elsewhere but there are some good/great prospects for those spots.

 

You make an argument that the Twins should be doing better than a Mauer/Plouffe/Sano combination at 1B/3B/DH and then downgrade defensively at 3B and put a question mark like Vargas in at DH.  That definitely isn't guaranteed to be better. 

 

I like Vargas but even if a trade isn't made I think it is likely that at some point someone gets injured.  Good teams have depth and can absorb injuries.  Bad teams are an injury away from starting Eduardo Nunez at 3B.

 

Trading Plouffe does not make them "sellers." It makes them a team who is trading off a surplus to make the team better in other areas. Whether or not those other areas are on the ML team right now, or pieces for a later time, or for a later trade is to be seen.  If money wasn't a thing and the Twins could just have Plouffe for the next 5-6 years, then yeah.....hang on to him, but with him starting to get paid rather well this off season and needing a multi year deal after that......they need to decide what's right to do.