40 Man Roster, Free Agents and Arbitration

[BoomBoom]

 

Some other team might take Walker, just because they have a hitting coach that thinks he can make him an MLB hitter, because he thinks he is a better hitting coach than Walker has had up to now.

And he may have already spotted a flaw in Walker's mechanics or approach that can be fixed.

Remember David Ortiz?

Still - Averaging 28 HRs and 103 RBI as a minor league prospect over 3 years ain't bad.  Pass on him if you want - But SANE is right - Some hitting coach will make him a MLB regular.  I'm anxious to see him in AFL.   He runs well and fields well enough to play in the OF.  Ryan and Molitor both made comment to that.  How many people knew he had 36 Stolen Bases in 45 attempts  (80% success rate).  He is a big man, but not to be confused with a lumbering big man.  He might also have the best vertical on the Lookouts at 6'5 230 lbs.

 

He will be on someones 40 man

[beckmt]

Of the 5 free agents, I can see only Cotts being kept.  My guess is that one of Herrmann and Pinto will be gone along with Fryer.  Achter, Thompson, Robinson, possibly O' Rourke.  That leaves you with only the 7 - 8 listed above having to be protected, though in a pinch, I would not protect Rogers because Twins have too many choices the next couple of years under him.

Some clearing trades are needed, lets hope they are the right ones.

[bird]

 

I'd be just fine if the Twins stay out of the Rule V draft this year. They dragged Graham along all season when there were probably better relievers to be had.

 

I think I agree with this. Graham might work out over the long haul but he was an anchor this season. he Twins are now way down on the pecking order for Rule V.

[sane]

 

I like your choices for protection.  I agree all of those players should be protected.  That is nine players or face possibly losing one.

We are gonna need to figure out what we have soon because next year we will need to protect Kohl Stewart
Stephan Gonsalves
Stuart Turner
Zach Granite
Brandon Peterson
Maybe Slegers or Eides

Along with others

Gonsalves (along with Kohl Stewart and Brian Navaretto) don't need Rule V protection until 2017 because they were signed as 18-yr-olds in 2013.

The college signees (19 and older) have to be protected in 2016.

[dbminn]

Nunez should and will be offered a contract. Solid across the board with limited duty. That type of player is valuable to a team that's looking to make the playoffs, especially at $1.5 million.

 

I expect all of the other arb-eligible players to be offered a contract as well. Robinson is cheap and can be traded at the end of spring training if all of the Twins OF are healthy and major-league ready.

 

I would let all of the FA walk, although I could see the Twins signing Cotts or Boyer. I agree that there are several players who could be DFA'd, including a couple of catchers and several pitchers. I would like to see Darnell stay on the roster but won't lose any sleep over the final decision.

 

 

[70charger]

He will be on someones 40 man

That's not how rule 5 works. If he's on a 40-man, it's with the Twins. If he's claimed in rule 5, it's 25 man, for an entire year. If he's on a 25 man for an entire year, I will be absolutely shocked.

[Vanimal46]

 

I actually really liked Pressly he is for sure back IMO, and I think they keep Tonkin on 40 man for one more try, see if his 95 FB can finally make a difference at the MLB level.

 

I'm fine with keeping 1 of the 2, but not both. I may be wrong on Tonkin, but if he's been called up a dozen or so times and not able to stick around, he may just be a AAAA type player. There's a lot of pitchers that need protection from Rule V who could take his place as the AAA call up. Otherwise I'd rather give that spot to a FA who can actually stick in the majors.  

[diehardtwinsfan]

Tonkin is an odd case b/c throughout his career, he's never really gotten an extended shot (though he's never earned his keep at the ML level either).  I wouldn't have a problem giving him an extended look in mop up duty in the Graham role for 2016 to see if there's something there, because his minor league numbers certainly indicate that he can do it.   I don't think the Twins should be drafting someone in the Rule V portion of the draft this winter.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

He will be on someones 40 man

But the choice right now isn't Walker on the Twins 40-man or someone else's 40-man.  The choice is Walker on the Twins 40-man or someone else's 25-man for the entire 2016 MLB season.

 

If Walker is considered anywhere near the boundary of 40-man protection, it should be noted that corner OFs are very rare Rule 5 picks, especially those who have yet to even appear in AAA.  I only found one such player in the Rule 5 draft results dating back to 1997 (Jason DuBois, 27th of 28 picks in 2002, would be ineligible under current Rule 5 rules, returned to his original organization that spring):

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rule_5_draft#Notable_Rule_5_draftees

 

EDIT: Coke to 70charger, knew I should have refreshed before posting!

[Dman]

 

That's not how rule 5 works. If he's on a 40-man, it's with the Twins. If he's claimed in rule 5, it's 25 man, for an entire year. If he's on a 25 man for an entire year, I will be absolutely shocked.

 

I wouldn't be shocked at all. Guy is a perfect pinch hitter for late innings when you are looking for a home run.  Every year we say he will regress as he moves up and every year he manages to hit lots of home runs and get lots of RBI's.  I bet the Phillies would take him in a heartbeat, maybe the A's as well.  Any team down on their luck would take a chance on a guy like that.  Even on a pretty loaded Twins Farm he is a top ten prospect.  I don't think you take a chance on throwing a guy like that away.

[sane]

 

" it should be noted that corner OFs are very rare Rule 5 picks"

It also should be noted that Roberto Clemente was a corner OF who was the best Rule 5 pick EVER!!!!

 

 

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I wouldn't be shocked at all. Guy is a perfect pinch hitter for late innings when you are looking for a home run.

Not at the MLB level.  You think Adam Walker, striking out 35% of the time against AA pitchers, is a strategic weapon against even average MLB relievers right now?

 

Not to mention, teams aren't using the Rule 5 draft on speculative pinch hitters.

[sane]

Adam Brett Walker's power can't be transferred to another hitter.

Speed and power are difficult to teach.

If the Twins risk losing him, while trying to protect a marginal AA reliever, that decision would be BEYOND justification!

[sane]

Josh Hamilton?

[sane]

Jose Bautista

Bobby Bonilla

[Brandon]

I was just gonna list a few of our rule 5 picks.... Johan Santana...sort of, Shane Mack....we can get a good player there. As far as our 5 FA, Hunter, Boyer, and Cotts should be resigned or will be. We can always release a reliever if need be. We should obviously sign one too. Hunter will be more important to sign if they trade plouffe. As he can DH. I'm curious to see if we get another starting pitcher for next season.

[dxpavelka]

 

I actually don't think I would mind if they gave Cotts a 1 year deal to stay next year, any one else?

Not like we've got that many other options.  Especially ones with a major league pedigree and the ability to throw the ball with their left hand.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Adam Brett Walker's power can't be transferred to another hitter.
Speed and power are difficult to teach.
If the Twins risk losing him, while trying to protect a marginal AA reliever, that decision would be BEYOND justification!

Given past Rule 5 draft results, we're more likely to lose a marginal reliever than a marginal corner OF.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Josh Hamilton?

 

Jose Bautista
Bobby Bonilla

Do you mean those as Adam Walker Rule 5 comparables?

 

Hamilton was the #1 overall pick and #1 overall prospect before his missed seasons, and while a bit of an unknown quantity at the time of his selection, he wasn't coming off of a 35% K rate season either.

 

Bautista was a third basemen, Bonilla mostly a first baseman at the time although later moved to third, and both he and Bonilla were a year younger than Walker (Rule 5 draft pool was larger back then), and neither had struck out in 35% of their plate appearances.  Both actually had/have notably low K totals, often walking nearly as much as they strike out.

[Dman]

 

Not at the MLB level.  You think Adam Walker, striking out 35% of the time against AA pitchers, is a strategic weapon against even average MLB relievers right now?

 

Not to mention, teams aren't using the Rule 5 draft on speculative pinch hitters.

 

Yep I agree he is not ready for MLB pitching but Graham wasn't ready to pitch to MLB hitters and we still took him in the rule 5.  You can hide anyone you want on the bench if you believe they have potential to be a starter.  

 

I just don't see the Twins giving other teams a chance at a top 10 prospect and getting nothing in return.  If I had a chance at a top ten prospect at AA that led his league in RBI's or Home runs pretty much every year I would put that guy on my 25 man just to get him.  Especially if I have a poor farm system already and am likely in rebuild mode anyway (i.e Phillies, other last place teams.)  So he K's 35% of the time right now.  If you can work with him and get that down in the 20% range you might have an All Star slugger.  All it cost you was one spot on the bench in another losing rebuild year.

[sane]

 

Do you mean those as Adam Walker Rule 5 comparables?

 

No.

Adam Walker Rule 5 comparables are players who were protected from Rule V.

Clemente, Hamilton, Bautista and Bonilla were drafted because they weren't protected from Rule V.

Walker will not be drafted, because he WILL be protected on the 40-man roster.

If he is not protected, I will post my mea culpa.

 

[Hrbowski]

 

Do you mean those as Adam Walker Rule 5 comparables?

 

Hamilton was the #1 overall pick and #1 overall prospect before his missed seasons, and while a bit of an unknown quantity at the time of his selection, he wasn't coming off of a 35% K rate season either.

 

Bautista was a third basemen, Bonilla mostly a first baseman at the time although later moved to third, and both he and Bonilla were a year younger than Walker (Rule 5 draft pool was larger back then), and neither had struck out in 35% of their plate appearances.  Both actually had/have notably low K totals, often walking nearly as much as they strike out.

I know that some scouts compare Walker's swing to that of Giancarlo Stanton.

[Shane Wahl]

I would probably see about keeping Cotts. Let the non-tendering or trading happen with all of those guys except Escobar and Jepsen. That moves it from 42 to 33. A few more can be DFAed.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Yep I agree he is not ready for MLB pitching but Graham wasn't ready to pitch to MLB hitters and we still took him in the rule 5.  You can hide anyone you want on the bench if you believe they have potential to be a starter.

Especially if I have a poor farm system already and am likely in rebuild mode anyway (i.e Phillies, other last place teams.)  So he K's 35% of the time right now.  If you can work with him and get that down in the 20% range you might have an All Star slugger.  All it cost you was one spot on the bench in another losing rebuild year.

In modern MLB, it's easier to hide players at the back of the bullpen than it is on the bench.  Most teams have a max of 3-4 non-catcher bench spots available, which could be further reduced by platooning etc.

 

Every team already has minor leaguers that could improve with some work, and they can do that work immediately because they don't require a 25-man roster spot for a season when they are clearly not ready.  Just eyeballing the Phillies org, they probably have at least 3 OF who should be playing in MLB ahead of Walker right now, plus multiple OF prospects who should reach MLB in 2016.

 

And getting a player "for free" in Rule 5, especially one you plan to bury on your bench, isn't without its costs.  First, assuming you don't have any internal Rule 5 eligibles of your own worth protecting and developing further in the minor leagues, you will have one less roster spot to add a different Rule 5 guy, a waiver claim or nontender from another org, or even for a Marlon Byrd type free agent, who could be signed and potentially flipped at the deadline.

 

Next, while you have Walker locked into a roster spot next season, you have one less 25-man spot to use for waiver claims, as well as evaluating your own players and Rule 5 eligibles next season.

 

And finally, even after a lost season on the MLB bench, you have to protect Walker again next winter, potentially passing on more Rule 5 bets, potential FA flips, and/or leaving some of your own Rule 5 eligibles exposed, just to finally get a look at him in regular game action again in 2017.

 

Now, all of the above costs can be outweighed by the right player, but it's awfully hard to balance it out when the player has a big glaring flaw to work on and will likely have to wait a full year before they can really work on correcting it.

 

If it was as easy and fruitful as you suggest, I think we'd see significantly more players selected in the Rule 5 draft and sticking with their new teams.  Position players getting the true "buried on the bench" treatment are particularly rare.

[Dman]

 

 

 

If it was as easy and fruitful as you suggest, I think we'd see significantly more players selected in the Rule 5 draft and sticking with their new teams.  Position players getting the true "buried on the bench" treatment are particularly rare.

 

I agree that you don't see this with many bench players.   I think there was an article that said it typically doesn't work out as well.  I'm just sayin that if you are a team that is likely rebuilding you can more easily take on those risks with fairly minimal downside.  Power hitters can be hard to develop.  I think Walker would be a good rule five bet for a rebuilding team.  I guess we will find out soon enough what the Twins decide to do.

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

The AFL roster suggests they will protect Walker.  And it's not necessarily a bad move for the Twins -- our Rule 5 eligible list isn't that deep or great anymore, it guarantees you can work with him a bit more, and you can still cut him anytime you want after March -- but that still doesn't mean he's all that likely to be selected by another team in Rule 5.  He had a pretty brutal second half, he might need some work just to become a "AAAA" slugger much less a MLB asset.  Not sure if teams would really be lining up to pick him.

[sane]

"that still doesn't mean he's all that likely to be selected by another team in Rule 5"

No single player is "likely" to be selected. There are only 14 total selected last year. You just hope it isn't someone valuable that is lost. (Gilmartin)

[SwainZag]

There's no doubt in my mind they will protect ABW, it just doesn't make sense not to with the tools he has.

 

The extreme warning signs are there but he's young enough to at least make sure he's around for another year.

[Rosterman]

Protecting Walker early? Or will he start at AAA next year. The Twins protected Polanco early. They protected Kepler far earlier than they probably needed to (eating up a couple of years, now, on his 40-man clock). Assuming that Walker will contribute to the Twins in 2018, with maybe a callup for sure in 2017, it is not out-of-the-question to protect him. If you start him and he fails at AAA (see WQheeler) and continues to put up same numebrs at AA for another season, then you can always consider sneaking him thru waivers, although a waiver claim of a player off a 40-man and then that team sneaking him thru is more common that a Rule 5 claim and trying to arrange a trade to keep someone in the system.

[twinsnorth49]

 

I actually don't think I would mind if they gave Cotts a 1 year deal to stay next year, any one else?

I'm cool with Cotts staying another year.

 

 

Duensing on the other hand............