Added Pressure.

[diehardtwinsfan]

The Twins problem right now is that the system is relatively barren for any type of SP impact in the next year or two. The ones who are close are either low ceiling or high questionmark, and even if everything went our way, there isn't enough there. If they fancy themselves as regrouping for 2013, then getting SP has to be a priority. Trading Span, Liriano, and Burton might get them a couple of decent AA options, but that would be about it. If that's the case, they will have to go out and sign pitching this offseason, and likely more than one guy... with 20M to spend, they could go all out and get Grienke, but there wouldn't be that much left other than a 1 year prove it deal for a higher upside guy.

[chopper0080]

The Twins could sign Anibal Sanchez and Colby Lewis for about 21 mil which will be about what Hamels and Greinke get per year.

[Jim H]

Sometimes these threads kind of confuse me. It especially seems to happen when Fanatic Jack is involved. First of all, some people believe the Twins are in the middle of a rebuilding project. If you believe that, then, no, do not go out spend big money on free agent pitchers.

 

 

If on the other hand, you believe that the Twins are maybe one or two starting pitchers from being a legimate contender for postseason next year, then going after a Grienke or Hamels might very well make sense. You have to be aware that doing so may very well limit keeping certain current players, will limit signing other free agents and requires that the Twins farm system produce useful players over the next 5 years.

 

One of the problems with these threads, is no one really agrees on way too many things, such as the current state of the Twins, the likely usefulness of young players such as Plouffe, Revere, Dozier, and Henricks, how soon if ever the farm system will produce more useful players, and whether money can really solve some of the Twins current problems.

[kab21]

The Twins could sign Anibal Sanchez and Colby Lewis for about 21 mil which will be about what Hamels and Greinke get per year.

Anibal and Colby will likely get as much as C.J. and Buehrle did last year. Anibal might even get more than C.J. Combined they will easily get more than 25M and probably close to 30M. Starting pitching is always overpaid in free agency.

[bird]

This thread was full of informed and sensible arguments. So the contrast between those comments and the opinions expressed by Mike Wants Wins and Fanatic Jack is stark. How can anyone possibly assert that the Twins didn't fill a single hole? And Jack, this C.H.E.A.P. crap you keep spewing out is ignorant at best. The facts back up what the Twins (not the Pohlad family) promised regarding spending. They spend, ON AVERAGE, roughly 50-55% of annual revenues. The Twins are not cheap. I will concede, however, that they might be as greedy as the fans, who want it all, or the players and agents for that matter.

[Guest USAFChief]

The Twins could sign Anibal Sanchez and Colby Lewis for about 21 mil which will be about what Hamels and Greinke get per year.

You mean 21 mil per year, right? Neither are likely to sign one year deals.

[Guest USAFChief]

This thread was full of informed and sensible arguments. So the contrast between those comments and the opinions expressed by Mike Wants Wins and Fanatic Jack is stark. How can anyone possibly assert that the Twins didn't fill a single hole? And Jack, this C.H.E.A.P. crap you keep spewing out is ignorant at best. The facts back up what the Twins (not the Pohlad family) promised regarding spending. They spend, ON AVERAGE, roughly 50-55% of annual revenues. The Twins are not cheap. I will concede, however, that they might be as greedy as the fans, who want it all, or the players and agents for that matter.

I do not believe Twins 2012 revenues will be under $200m. So no, they are not spending roughly 50-55% of annual revenues, at least not this year. Likely not in 2010, and probably not even last year.

[glunn]

I do not believe Twins 2012 revenues will be under $200m. So no, they are not spending roughly 50-55% of annual revenues, at least not this year. Likely not in 2010, and probably not even last year.

It would be nice to see the actual numbers. I also wonder if the 50-55% includes the dollars paid to Buxton and other draft picks.

[Guest USAFChief]

It would be nice to see the actual numbers. I also wonder if the 50-55% includes the dollars paid to Buxton and other draft picks.

Forbes estimated Twins revenues at $213M in 2011. I don't believe that included new FSN contract, which is $29M annually. If I remember correctly, FSN was paying $12M under the old contract.

 

http://www.forbes.com/mlb-valuations/#p_2_s_a0_

 

For the record, the Twins have publicly stated in the past the major league salaries are a separate expense, and do not include international FA signings or the rule 4 draft budget.

 

It's not hard to look this stuff up.

[old nurse]

The Twins are more likely to scour other teams rosters for an underperforming pitcher like AJ Burnet was with the Yankees and hope they turn around then sign a free agent

[kab21]

Forbes estimated Twins revenues at $213M in 2011. I don't believe that included new FSN contract, which is $29M annually. If I remember correctly, FSN was paying $12M under the old contract.

 

http://www.forbes.com/mlb-valuations/#p_2_s_a0_

 

For the record, the Twins have publicly stated in the past the major league salaries are a separate expense, and do not include international FA signings or the rule 4 draft budget.

 

It's not hard to look this stuff up.

they might have different budgets for draft and MLB but there's no reason that it shouldn't be part of the 50-55% of spending. I'm happy that they are investing in the draft and int'l FA this year and prefer it to signing more mediocre vets.

[bird]

USAF, I believe those revenue statistics support the statement, made frequently by Twins management, that they intend to spend roughly 50-55% of revenues on player salaries. If the revenues, over the first three years at Target Field average say, $250M, then I think we can be critical of the organization if the average payroll over the next three years falls much below say, $125M. If they don't sign at least one decent FA pitcher this winter not named Hamels or Greinke, I'll probably fall in the camp of questioning them. The media in this town has been dreadful when it comes to the really tough questions, and they should pin Jim Pohlad down some time about this subject.

[Badsmerf]

The Twins have never really been in this position to spend money before so we'll see. They have money coming off the books and the ability to add to the current payroll number if it makes sense. For an ace in his prime, I think it makes sense.

[PopRiveter]

I wonder if they'll follow this year's model of building the bullpen (i.e. bring in 27 low cost pitchers and see if a few of 'em can compete at this level.)

[Fanatic Jack]

Birdwatcher,

 

They cut payroll by $20 million after losing 99 games and hired back GM Terry Ryan so they could sell it to fans. The team is actually worse than the one last year but funner to watch. The farm system despite people refusing to write about it is in complete shambles. The only way to improve the team dramatically is to spend money like the Wild just did. It's really that simple but Pohlad wont do it. Heck they have never done it and the fans continue to line up and protect them!! Does anybody remember President Dave St. Peter promising after the miserable season ended in 2011 the team would improve. My guess is Twins fans think with their hearts because they want to hang on to something positive. I do understand this thinking but at some point reality has to set in. Welcome to the 90's all over again.

[YourHouseIsMyHouse]

Sometimes these threads kind of confuse me. It especially seems to happen when Fanatic Jack is involved. First of all, some people believe the Twins are in the middle of a rebuilding project. If you believe that, then, no, do not go out spend big money on free agent pitchers.

The problem is we aren't a couple of starting pitchers away. The Twins have an average offense and need to get more production at 1B and the middle infield if they want to contend as well. The bullpen is also around average more or less. However, the bullpen may be the only "group" that would probably be good enough for a playoff team if Capps was healthy (and we had a real closer). The point is, average only gets you into the playoffs in the NHL and NBA. When only 10/30 make it, a team like the Twins needs an even stronger offense and revamped starting pitching.

[bird]

Fanatic Jack, have you considered the possibility that YOU are the one distanced from reality. Keep an open mind and hear me out on responding to your argument above:

 

1. They did NOT "cut payroll". They had gone OVER budget the previous year. But, much more importantly, no on promised you they'd spnd some precise, magical number each year. They promised to spend, ON AVERAGE, roughly 50% of revenue. Now, you think they should have overspent again by signing, say, Cliff Lee. The Twins don't agree with you. Not because they're cheap, but because they don't see the wisdom and value of such a move. Ryan made a bet that Baker, Liriano, Pavano, Marquis, Blackburn, Hendriks, and the myriad of AAAA options in Rochester would work out. He lost the bet. TGhat happens. Who won that Cliff Lee bet?

 

2. The farm system is hardly in shambles. That's a complete myth, unsupported by the facts. Most pundits rank it as a middle-of-the-road system. Ryan doesn't try to "sell" anything. He in fact has publicly agreed with this assessment. Personally, I think he's being cautious, and that the farm system is already a top third system talent-wise.

 

3. This team is NOT worse. It's quite dramatically better, although it hasn't shown up on the scoreboard yet. AS the young players like Plouffe, Dozier, Hendriks, Revere, Hendriks, etc. gain experience, the wins will come.

 

4. This might be 1980 all over again, Jack, not 1990. I'm not comparing Parmelee, Revere, and Plouffe to Hrbek, Puckett, and Gaetti. But there is a strong nucleus of players on the way, and some of them are only a year or so away. And a number of them are starting pitchers with projected ceilings a bit higher than Walters, DeVries, and Diamond. Obviously, many won't pan out but some of these will in the next couple of years: Gibson, Hendriks, Wimmers, Hermsen, Bromberg, Salcedo, and Stuiffbergen are examples. And the low minors is stocked wi9th pitching talent. Check the team ERA's for Beloit, Elizabethton, and Gulf Coast teams.

 

5. Maybe the dumbest strategy is the one you suggest, which is to compete for the services of the next Barry Zito or Cliff Lee. That is a recipe for an unsustainable future. Building up the farm system is the right move, and progress is being made. You just don't see it, and you don't have the patience for it. And remember, the revenue stream they enjoy now has only been in place for what, three years?

 

6. Lastly, you're a Pohlad hater. An unbecoming trait, Jack. But you do have plenty of company out there. It's easy to hate the money that ain't yours to spend, isn't it?

[Oxtung]

Signing an ace like Greinke works fine if you have a constant stream of good pitching prospects that you can ride until they hit arbitration and then replace them with new prospects. Greinke is going to get a $125M/5yr kind of deal. That's $25M per year!!! The whole Twins starting payroll this year was supposed to be ~$30M and that is the highest it has ever been (I think ). That only leaves $5-10M to sign your other 4 starters. So short term Greinke works if you go with Diamond, Gibson, Hendriks, Wimmers, etc... because they are cheap. That philosophy stops working though once you get to arbitration and your starters start earning in the millions.

 

Even if you are willing to pay the $25M/yr to Greinke and just live off pre-arb years there is still a problem. The Twins don't have the young pitchers to even make it worthwhile. You want those first years of a Greinke contract to be years you think you can go all the way. Here is what a Twins starting staff would look like though:

 

Greinke

Diamond

???

???

???

 

Options:

Hendriks

Walters

Gibson (will he be ready to go?)

Cheap Veteran (hello 37yo Pavano!! or hello Marquis part 2!!)

Deduno

De Vries

 

Who thinks we could go all the way on that? BTW, things aren't looking any better for the 2014 rotation. Or even possibly the 2015. As you can see if you sign Greinke you don't have the money to improve the rest of the rotation enough to make it worthwhile. Here is what I think is a better option: Sign a $70M/5year deal (I like Shaun Marcum personally), a $33M/3yr deal (somebody between Edwin Jackson and Anibal Sanchez), and a cheap veteran (Pavano?) or Blackburn if he turns things around. This would be your rotation:

 

Player (Age,ERA, WHIP, K/9)

Marcum (30, 3.39, 1.166, 8.4)

Jackson (28, 3.73, 1.135, 6.8)

Diamond

Pavano/Blackburn

Hendriks/Gibson

 

Then in 2014 you can replace Pavano with 2 out of Hendriks, Gibson, Wimmers. This method keeps your payroll ~$30M/yr, runs out a decent rotation and allows you to have flexibility in the mid-term with only ~15M/yr locked up long term.

[gunnarthor]

Bird - I agree with your 1-5 but the Pohlad family has done enough to earn hostility from this fan base and you probably shouldn't accuse people that don't like the Pohlad's of just being jealous of their wealth.

[Mike Sixel]

birdwatcher:

 

1. The payroll is smaller, not sure how that isn't a cut.

2. What do you base the farm system being in the top third on? The complete lack of impact players at AAA? Mediocre numbers in AA? I'm baffled by that statement.

3. The team is worse, the record is worse. The facts are the facts. We can hope they are better, but the results are worse. We can feel they are better, but they aren't.

4. Which starting pitchers are a year away with high ceilings? A number of them? Less than a year or so away?

5. If the farm system is being built, it was done before Ryan took back over. Because so far, all Ryan has done is run 1 draft.

6. No comment on jack, but just because some of us disagree with the Pohlad approach does not mean we hate them. I just disagree with their approach. I know in 2012 it's hard to believe, but some people can disagree with people w/o hating them.

[bird]

gunarthor, I've served on two different non-profit boards and have witnessed first-hand the generosity of the Pohlad family. They've earned hostility? How, by being hostile themselves? Sure, they've earned criticism, but the outright hostility and name-calling is classless. I'm guessing that the Pohlads, as individuals, give away a higher percentage of their annual income than most of their critics on this blog. And they get called cheap, and much worse, by those people.

[gunnarthor]

birdwatcher:

 

1. The payroll is smaller, not sure how that isn't a cut.

2. What do you base the farm system being in the top third on? The complete lack of impact players at AAA? Mediocre numbers in AA? I'm baffled by that statement.

3. The team is worse, the record is worse. The facts are the facts. We can hope they are better, but the results are worse. We can feel they are better, but they aren't.

4. Which starting pitchers are a year away with high ceilings? A number of them? Less than a year or so away?

5. If the farm system is being built, it was done before Ryan took back over. Because so far, all Ryan has done is run 1 draft.

6. No comment on jack, but just because some of us disagree with the Pohlad approach does not mean we hate them. I just disagree with their approach. I know in 2012 it's hard to believe, but some people can disagree with people w/o hating them.

1) Bird is asserting that the team went over in 2011. Claiming a 'cut' without taking that into context creates a fiction.

2) I think most observers have the twins farm system in the middle range and we had a solid draft and international signing. The teams top talent is mostly in A+ or lower, although Aaron Hicks is playing well in AA and Oswaldo Arcia recently joined him there. The team added the top talent in the last draft and was active in recent international signings, as well. Most farm systems are rated in total, not just at the AAA level, so Bird has a point.

3) The team is on pace to be 6 games better than last year.

4) Gibson and Hendriks, both have decent upside and should be on the ML roster most of next year.

5) That's true.

6) Agreed.

[gunnarthor]

gunarthor, I've served on two different non-profit boards and have witnessed first-hand the generosity of the Pohlad family. They've earned hostility? How, by being hostile themselves? Sure, they've earned criticism, but the outright hostility and name-calling is classless. I'm guessing that the Pohlads, as individuals, give away a higher percentage of their annual income than most of their critics on this blog. And they get called cheap, and much worse, by those people.

Maybe, maybe not. I suspect, when you account for the tax loopholes, investment plans and write-offs they have, the Pohlads keep a larger percentage of their money then nearly anyone on this board.

 

But Fanatic Jack didn't call the Pohlad's anything - he merely said "The only way to improve the team dramatically is to spend money like the Wild just did. It's really that simple but Pohlad wont do it" to which you claimed he was a Pohlad hater.

 

 

[old nurse]

birdwatcher:

 

4. Which starting pitchers are a year away with high ceilings? A number of them? Less than a year or so away?

.

The statement was a couple of years. That would be hoping for Scalcado to improve quickly, Maybe the Hermson to elevate to a third starter. The cupboard is pretty bare for next year in terms of starting pitching unless those with injuries make recoveries quickly.

[Guest USAFChief]

1) Bird is asserting that the team went over in 2011. Claiming a 'cut' without taking that into context creates a fiction.

.

One could also make a case that claiming the team went "over budget" in 2011 "creates a fiction."

 

$213 x .55 = $117.5

[diehardtwinsfan]

The problem is we aren't a couple of starting pitchers away. The Twins have an average offense and need to get more production at 1B and the middle infield if they want to contend as well. The bullpen is also around average more or less. However, the bullpen may be the only "group" that would probably be good enough for a playoff team if Capps was healthy (and we had a real closer). The point is, average only gets you into the playoffs in the NHL and NBA. When only 10/30 make it, a team like the Twins needs an even stronger offense and revamped starting pitching.

I think you are a tad bit negative. Yes, they need more production at 1B, and quite frankly they should be willing to let Justin re-acclimate himself to the bigs as this season is done. But the middle of the road stats are a bit misleading given that there's a two months of Valencia that has been replaced by Plouffe, as well as Dozier who looks to be an upgrade up the middle. Revere seems to have figured things out too, but all of that has been in the month of June, not April-June... They are pretty solidly above average at a number of positions (C, LF, CF, 3B, and SS). They are likely about average at DH, RF, and 2B assuming Revere can hit... 2B has been bad for us, but it's been bad for most teams. 1B has been well below average, so I won't argue there, but letting Morneau play, or eventually replacing him with Parmalee will alleviate that. The offense is in pretty decent shape. Their problem is pitching, pitching, and pitching. The pen is doing fairly well, especially given the number of times starters don't make it through 5 frames. They get 3 good starting pitchers who can be counted on ERAs better than the league average and this team would be competing with Chicago.

[bird]

Mike Wants Wins:

 

1. I predict the payroll will not be smaller, on averge,over the next three years. Why? Because the Twins said they'll spend, on average, around 50% of revenue, and I believe them. Looking at one year is disingenuous given that promise, isn't it?

 

2. I base MY belief that the farm system is maybe a top third system talent-wise on the strength primarily found in the lower levels. But I also think you've been mischaracterizing the quality of the higher levels. Yes, they've lacked "impact players" I suppose, depending on your definition. But they have beared fruit: Revere, Plouffe, Dozier, Parmelee, Mastroianni, Hendriks, Oliveros, Diamond, Burnett, DeVries, Manship, Walters, Deduno, Robertson, Fien all played AAA ball this year, did they not? And the numbers at AA this year? Pretty darn good, Mike. Last time I looked, their team ERA was 4th of 12 teams. But whether the system ranks at the 33rd percentile or the 50th percentile, it's significantly better than so many of you choose to believe.

 

3. The team is better in the opinion of many, many qualified people. That is a fact. The record? That's a different fact. It doesn't refute these people's opinions. We can disagree here. But the fact you recite isn't conclsive, and the season is only half over, Mike. Your fact may eventually support these opinions.

 

4. I described a number of pitchers as being "a couple years away". I did not say a year away, or less than a year away, although many, many quaified people would opine that some of them are indeed less than a year away. Gibson, Hendrik, Wimmers, Bromberg, Hermsen, Stuiffbergen, and Darnell would be some that might, yes, might be ready in the next two years. Of course, you can describe all of them as having "low ceilings". Are any of these guys aces? Probably not. But don't miss the point I was making, which is that we are not entering the 1990's, as Jack believes. In addition to those potential starting pitchers, add the following names to the list of prospects we may see stick with the club within the next two years: Gutierrez, Guerra, Oliveros, Robertson, Waldrop, Slama, Parmelee, Hicks, Benson, Herrmann, Tosoni, and Arcia. Many will fail, but some will be "high ceiling, impact players by the definition of a lot of us.

[Highabove]

gunarthor, I've served on two different non-profit boards and have witnessed first-hand the generosity of the Pohlad family. They've earned hostility? How, by being hostile themselves? Sure, they've earned criticism, but the outright hostility and name-calling is classless. I'm guessing that the Pohlads, as individuals, give away a higher percentage of their annual income than most of their critics on this blog. And they get called cheap, and much worse, by those people.

1 In 2001, the Twins were finally starting to turn the corner with a crop of young new Stars.

The Pohlad's were about to reside over a new age of winning Twins Baseball and all of the positives which would go along with it.

Instead, Pohlad chose to take the big money, by offering up his team for liquidation. Luckily, Judge Harry Crump ordered the Team to play the 2002 season.

If Pohlad had realized his wish, there would have never been Division Championships or a Twins Team to Talk about.

This is only one reason for the negative feelings towards the Pohlad's.

[powrwrap]

This team is NOT worse. It's quite dramatically better

 

3) The team is on pace to be 6 games better than last year.

 

Depends on how you look at it.

 

After 85 games the Twins are 36-49 and on a pace to win 69 games. Last year after 85 games the Twins were 38-47 and on a pace to win 72 games.

 

In 2011, after 85 games played they had a run differential of -76, this year it's -87.

[Nick Nelson]

Depends on how you look at it.

 

After 85 games the Twins are 36-49 and on a pace to win 69 games. Last year after 85 games the Twins were 38-47 and on a pace to win 72 games.

 

In 2011, after 85 games played they had a run differential of -76, this year it's -87.

There's no way this year's team will be remotely as bad as last year's in the second half. Absolutely no way. Even if they sell off a bunch of pieces.